Evolution of Production Network: Measuring Trade in value-added (TiVA)

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1 Evolution of Production Network: Measuring Trade in value-added (TiVA) Norihiko YAMANO Directorate for Science Technology and Industry, OECD Working Party on Globalisation of Industry Committee on Industry, Innovation and Entrepreneurship May

2 Domestic Production Network (GPN) Coal Primary inputs Labour input Capital services Other VA component Steel Components Further intermediate Supply (Goods&Svc) Capital goods ICT products Household consumption

3 Global production network (GPN) Coal Primary inputs Labour input Capital services Other VA component Steel Components Further intermediate supply (Goods&Svc) Capital goods ICT products Household consumption

4 Expected outcomes Database compilation and model development Bilateral trade by end-use Expanded coverage of Input output tables Intercountry inter-industry model NEW Indicators Trade network Production structure and key sectors Positioning in international production network Economic integration via global production network

5 Main data sources: I-O and Bilateral trade in goods and services Analytical Harmonized Input-Output 44 countries (33 OECD countries) + some additional Years:1995,2000,2005 Industry: 37 sectors based on ISIC/NACE Rev 3 system Analytical Bilateral trade database HS 6digit ISIC Rev.3 HS 6digit End Use (intermediate, HHCP, GFCF, Passenger cars, Personal computers) Various adjustments: Re-exports (HKG), unallocated partners and sectors, missing links * CIF/FOB and volume adjustments

6 Trade Indicators Annual data Detail sector information Bilateral relationship 6

7 Sector composition of merchandise trade The world composition of traded goods remained stable in Chemicals (10% to 11%) Transport equipment (12% to 11%) Communication equipment (8% to 10%) General machinery (9% to 8%) Textile products (8% to 6%) Food manufacturing(6% to 5%), OECD ITCS Exports, May 2011

8 International specialisation (increased shares , more than 10% share of total exports) Mining (ISIC 10-14) in CA, MX, BR, CL / RU / Textile (ISIC17-19) in IT Chemicals (ISIC24) in US / BE,DE,ES,FR, GB / IN, KR, SG, TW Machinery (ISIC29) in CZ, FI, JP Comm equip. (ISIC30) in MX / FI,HU / CN, MY, PH Computing machinery (ISIC32) in CN, TW, KR, PH, SG,TH Motor vehicles (ISIC34) in US, BR / DE, FR, PL,HU,CZ / JP, KR

9 Export by Industry and End-Use 1995 World total export 2009 World total export Rest of World ( 1034 b$ ) 0.6% 3.9% 1.1% OECD.ASIA.PACIFIC ( 820 b$ ) 0.4% 1.2% 1% 2.3% Rest of World ( 3062 b$ ) 0.4% 2.5% 1.1% OECD.ASIA.PACIFIC ( 1387 b$ ) 0.3% 0.7% 0.6% 1.6% World total export CHINA ( 162 b$ ) 9.1% 6% 13.4% 4.6% BRIIS OECD.Others ( 260 b$ ) 1% 1.2% 0.5% 1.9% 1.3% 0.4% OECD.AMERICA ( 1068 b$ ) 0.2% ( 217 b$ ) 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% OECD.ASIA.PACIFIC 3.3% 1.7% 0.3% 1% 1.9% 2.1% 4.6% 4.4% ( 1387 b$ ) 0.3% 0.7% 0.6% 1.6% 13.8% 2.2% 2.6% 2.3% 8.9% 4.1% 1% 6.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 3.6% 2.8% 1.8% 0.8% 3.2% 5.6% OECD.EU15 ( 4539 b$ ) 17.2% 5.1% 7.1% 3% 1.1% OECD.EU15 ( 2279 b$ ) CHINA ( 1778 b$ ) 0.9% BRIIS ( 767 b$ ) Intermediate goods for assembly Other intermediate goods Capital goods Personal PC & passenger cars Household consumption Unspecified 3.3% 1.9% Intermediate goods for assembly Other intermediate goods Capital goods 1.7% 4.4% Personal PC 3.5% & passenger cars 0.3% 2.7% 3.4% Household consumption 1% Unspecified 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.4% 1.5% OECD.Others ( 1003 b$ ) 3.8% 0.7% 3.3% 6.6% 1.6% 1.7% 0.7% 0.9% OECD.AMERICA ( 1957 b$ ) 13.8% 4.1% 6.5% 1.8% 0.8% OECD.EU15 ( 4539 b$ )

10 Export by industry and enduse

11 Counting the dominant partner links to identify the demand and supply hubs Demand hub (l) Count the partners export link that depends on country l s economy at given threshold t export (k,l) / Σ l export (k,l) > t % Supply hub(k) Count the partners import link that depends on country l s economy at given threshold t import (k,l) / Σ l import (k,l) > t %

12 Major Trade Partners for Asia s Intermediate Exports in Goods and Services Notes: EU7 is Belgium, Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and United Kingdom. Each arrow indicates that a partner s share of a country s total exports is greater than 15%. Source: OECD Input-Output Database, March 2010; IDE-JETRO Asian International Input-Output Database 2006; OECD Bilateral Trade Database, March 2010; OECD Trade in Services, January 2010.

13 Global share of intermediate exports (2000, 2008) Manufacturing parts Motor vehicle parts

14 Findings (trade indicators) Significant changes in industry and category components of exports in most Asian economies (China s machinery, textile, etc) Asian and North American production networks have integrated. However structure of Europe basically remains stable after the mid1990s. China replaced Japanese and US positions as manufacturing hub in Asia-Pacific region. However, Japanese share of parts and components in some sectors (Electronics and motor vehicles) remains high.

15 Trade in value-added Input-output model is useful data source to link international trade and domestic primary contents 15

16 Indicators (vertical specialization) Import contents of exports = M (I-A) -1 Exports/Total exports Import contents of exports Imp Partner Country A Exp Partner (Hummels et al 2001) Imports Exports Exports Re-exported imports = Imports (I-Gd) -1 e/total imports Re-exported imports Imp Partner Country A Exp Partner Imports Exports Imports Domestic (Meng et al 2010)

17 Japan India Indonesia Viet Nam China Korea Philippines Thailand Chinese Taipei Singapore Greece Poland Switzerland France Germany Norway United Romania Italy Spain Czech Rep. Finland Denmark Sweden Slovak Austria Netherlands Portugal Slovenia Malaysia Belgium Luxembourg Hungary Estonia Ireland United States Brazil Argentina Chile Canada Mexico South Africa Russia Turkey Australia Israel New Zealand Import contents of exports (ICE) 70% 60% 50% 40% % 20% 10% 0%

18 Import contents of exports (ICE) by industry group 80% 70% 60% 2005High(ISIC24,29-33,35) 2005Low(ISIC15-23,25-28,34,36-37) 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% otes: Higher technology-intensive manufacturing group is defined as ISIC Rev.3 24, 29-35; lower technology-intensive manufacturing group is defined as ISIC Rev , 25-28, 36-37; services sector is ISIC Rev Sources: OECD Input-Output Database, October 2010

19 Intermediate imports end up in exports Asia Europe Americas Row

20 United States Brazil Chile Canada Mexico Australia Japan Indonesia India China Korea Thailand Chinese Taipei Norway United Kingdom Germany France Greece Italy Poland Romania Spain Austria Netherlands Sweden Denmark Finland Portugal Belgium Slovenia Czech Republic Slovak Republic Estonia Ireland Hungary Luxembourg South Africa Turkey Israel Contribution of exports on GDP: Induced value-added (% of exports) 100 Americas total Induced VA (other) Induced VA (labour) Asia Europe Row OECD I-O May 2011

21 Intercountry-based production fragmentation indicator 1. Induced global trade / Exports 2. Average Propagation Link another advanced indicates the complexity of inter-industry transactions (both domestic and foreign) 21

22 Fragmentation index (1995/2005) (1.0 = Goods and Services exported as final expenditure) IDF VS Country decreased direct VS Increased indirect fragmentation Singapore Malaysia Philippines Thailand Chinese Taipei Korea China Indonesia New Zealand Australia Japan India 22

23 APL: Domestic and intercountry length (total,1995/2005) 2.5 inter-country 2 domestic China Malaysia Chile Singapore Korea Austria Germany Japan France USA United States Greece Viet Nam

24 Findings (inter-country model) Increased inter-country spillover effects => decreased domestic contribution of exports on output and GDP. In particular, final demand in developing economies induces more valueadded in neighbour developed economy. Production chains become more complex in inter-country parts (intermediate trade + APL) due to the production propagations in foreign area.

25 Domestic and inter-country length (Electric Machinery,1995/2005) inter-country domestic China Germany Japan United States Austria Canada

26 Example of specific products import contents Basic metals included in partner' exports USA (Billion USD, 2005) Machinery(29) Office machinery(30) Electronic machinery(31) Motor vehicles (34) 0 Japan Korea China

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