Global Atmospheric Effects of Aviation and Surface Transport
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1 Global Atmospheric Effects of Aviation and Surface Transport (TRADEOFF, METRIC, QUANTIFY) Robert Sausen DLR- Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany Third Japan-EU Workshop on Climate Change Research January 2005 Yokohama Institute for Earth Sciences Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology Yokohama, Japan
2 Transport and climate change Transport contributes about 20 to 30% to anthropogenic climate change in terms of radiative forcing (RF). The transport sector, in particular aviation, is one of the fastest growing industrial sectors. International aviation and shipping are not included in the Kyoto Protocol.
3 Global emission by aviation, shipping and road transport CO 2 in Tg(C)/a NO x in Tg(N)/a SO x in Tg(S)/a PM in Tg(PM10)/a total fuel burn in Mio t yr -1 shipping road transport aviation
4 How does transport impact on climate? Transport emissions can impact on climate in several ways: (1) by direct emissions of greenhouse gases, mainly CO 2, but also N 2 O and others; (2) by emissions of indirect greenhouse gases, i.e., precursors of ozone, such as NOx, CO or volatile organic compounds (VOCs); (3) by emissions of aerosols or their precursors, in particular black carbon and SO 2, which are directly and indirectly (via cloud formation and cloud modification) radiatively and chemically active; (4) by directly triggering additional clouds due to water vapour emissions (e.g., contrails, contrail cirrus).
5 Impact of Aviation
6 Aircraft-induced ozone increase (July): up to 5% Geographische Breite
7 Contrails
8 Aircraft wake and contrail
9 Contrails from old and modern aircraft altitude 344 hft Airbus A340 Boeing B707 Schumann et al., 2000
10 Satellite image of contrails central Europe, 4 May 1995
11 Cover by visible contrails : Increase of traffic, larger efficiency, global warming NAFC SE Asia World ,32 % 0,06 % 0,06 % ,04 % 0,27 % 0,22 % Marquart et al., 2003
12 Radiative Forcing RF and Surface Temperature Change T s IPCC: T s = λ RF climate sensitivity parameter: constant, i.e., independent of forcing, but model dependent IPCC 1999
13 Updated Aviation Radiative Forcing for 2000 Sausen et al., 2005
14 Contrail Cirrus Images: GOES-8 IPCC 1999, 3.13
15 Impact of cruise altitude relative change distance flown ± 0 % fuel burn % NOx emissions % mean EI(NOx) % vis. contrail cover - 45 % RF by contrails - 47 % NO x change Change in contrail coverage ft O 3 change m m
16 Limits of the RF concept Hansen et al., 1997: O3 = 100 DU, each layer individually λ const. Response depends on pattern of forcing T s = λ RF IPCC, 1999
17 Climate sensitivity parameter λ [K / (Wm -2 )] Joshi et al., 2003; Sausen et al., 2003
18 Normalised climate sensitivity parameter r = λ / λ CO2-global Joshi et al., 2003; Sausen et al., 2003
19 Aviation related climate sensitiy parameters Aircraft induced ozone: Contrails: up to a factor 2 larger. up to a factor 2 smaller.
20 Impact of shipping
21 Airborne measurements of ship emissions Schlager, 2004
22 Global NO x emission from shipping Endresen et al., 2003 Corbett and Köhler, 2003
23 NO x emissions from shipping and satellite measurements of NO 2 columns Richter et al., 2004
24 Ship tracks Rapp (DWD), 2004: promet
25 QUANTIFY Quantifying the Climate Impact of global and European Transport Systems Objective: To quantify the climate impact of the global and European transport systems for the present situation and for different scenarios of future development. Co-ordinator: Sausen, DLR-IPA Participants: 35 from 16 countries Duration: März 2005 bis Februar 2010 Funds: 8.0 M Total costs 12.0 M
26 Chain of Impacts Emission Inventories temporal evolution, 3D distribution Regional Dilution and Processing effective emissions Large-scale Chemistry Effects atmospheric composition Cloud Processes cloud cover and optical properties Radiative Forcing temporal evolution, 2D distribution Climate Change new climatic state Metrics simple measures to quantify impacts Climate Impacts
27 Further information ( In 2006: International conference on the climate impact of transport
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