Rubbish, Stink, and Death: Steve Chapra
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1 April 4, 2008 Rubbish, Stink, and Death: How Engineers Invented Water Quality Modeling and How It Might Inform Climate Change Steve Chapra Tufts University
2 OUTLINE The Historical Development of Civil Engineering The Roots and History of Environmental Engineering The Evolution of Water Quality Modeling and Management The Future Developing economies Climate Change
3 HISTORY OF ENGINEERING MILITARY ENGINEERS (Battlements, Weaponry) CIVIL(IAN) ENGINEERS (Buildings, Roads, Aqueducts) Scientific Revolution ( ) Industrial Revolution ( ) MECHANICAL (Steam Engines, Vehicles) CHEMICAL (Explosives, Food, petroleum) ELECTRICAL (Lighting, Power) CIVIL & ENVIRONMENTAL (Infrastructure) Structural Geotechnical Construction Transportation Environmental Water resources
4 What distinguishes CEE from other areas of engineering? We are broad We plan and manage (big systems) We deal directly with the government, the public sector, and society We are outdoors oriented We own our companies We are the Builders... of Cities
5 THE HISTORY OF ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING Where and why did society begin to care about water quality? Jared Diamond (Pulitzer Prize) Guns, Germs and Steel A book about water quality: Rubbish, Stink and Death
6 19 th Century London Migration from farms to cities London Population (millions) World s largest city ( )
7 Water and Sanitation Infrastructure Water supply: Mostly wells Waste disposal: Mostly cesspits Some sewers into the Thames No waste treatment!!!
8 ubbish Stink Death Aesthetics Ecosystem health Public health
9 The Great Stink of 1858 Unusually warm summer Oxidation of sewage created anaerobic conditions (no dissolved oxygen) in the Thames estuary Generated hydrogen sulfide gas (rotten egg smell)
10 Parliament Smell Was So Bad That Parliament and Law Courts Closed
11 Disease Pre-Enlightenment: Superstition 19 th Century Cholera Epidemics Miasma Theory of Disease Pollution smells ERGO Disease must be airborne
12 London Board of Health Hunting Cholera
13 The Ghost Map Broad Street Pump John Snow
14 King Cholera Mans the Pump Germ Theory Pasteur
15 Huge Sewer Construction Beckton LONDON THAMES Crossness BUILT BY CIVIL ENGINEERS!
16 Roots of Water Quality Modeling At first, London relied on tidal flushing Then needed additional waste treatment How much waste treatment do we need???
17 URBAN POINT SOURCE DESIGN PROBLEM (Late 19 th & Early 20 th Centuries) River Critical concentration, c [M/L 3 ] WTP WWTP Waste loading, W [M/T] Waste removed CITY WATER-QUALITY MODEL: c = f(w, physics, chemistry, biology)
18 W MASS BALANCE c W TRANSPORT (PHYSICS) c TRANSFORMATIONS (CHEMISTRY, BIOLOGY) c = f(w, physics, chemistry, biology)
19 ASSIMILATION FACTOR How physics, chemistry and biology convert the loading rate into concentration WATER QUALITY MODEL c = f(w, physics, chemistry, biology) c = 1 a W CONCENTRATION How polluted the system is LOADING The rate of pollutant discharge
20 MODELING MODES SIMULATION MODE: Given load (W) and assimilation factor (a), c = 1 a W ASSIMILATIVE CAPACITY DESIGN MODE: Given desired concentration (c) and assimilation factor (a), W = a c ENVIRONMENTAL MODIFICATION DESIGN MODE: Given desired concentration (c) and given load (W), a = W c
21 MODELS GIVE YOU THE BIG PICTURE AN ELEPHANT IS LIKE A BRUSH AN ELEPHANT IS LIKE A SNAKE AN ELEPHANT IS LIKE A ROPE AN ELEPHANT IS LIKE A TREE TRUNK
22 THE COMPUTER MODEL TIES EVERYTHING TOGETHER CHEMISTRY BIOLOGY THE MODEL PHYSICS
23 THE PRE-COMPUTER ERA ( ) Problems: Untreated Sewage Effluent Pollutants: BOD/Dissolved Oxygen Systems: Streams/Estuaries (1D)
24 COMPUTERS & PHYSICS ( ) Problems: Multiple Sewage Effluents Pollutants: BOD/Dissolved Oxygen Systems: Streams Estuaries (1D/2D) The systems approach
25 AFTER 1945: KA-BOOM
26 1950 s: THE DREAM
27 1960 s: THE REALITY EUTROPHICATION Overfertilization due to excess nutrients
28 BIOLOGY ( ) Problems: Eutrophication Pollutants: Nutrients Systems: LAKES, Estuaries Rivers
29 TOXICS/CHEMISTRY ( ) Problems: Toxics and Acid Rain Pollutants: Organics, Metals, Acid Systems: Sediments, Ecosystem
30 TODAY (1995-present) Clean Water Act Computing Advances Quality of Life
31 WATERSHED MANAGEMENT (1995-present) Problems: Temperature, Eutrophication, Pathogens, Toxics watershed groundwater receiving water sediments Pollutants: Heat, BOD, Nutrients, Toxics, Bacteria Systems: Watershed, Receiving Water, Groundwater, Atmosphere
32 A Golden Age of Water Quality Management & Modeling
33 THE FUTURE: DEVELOPING ECONOMIES Water is the oil of the 21 st Century Quantity and Quality Clean Water is More Valuable than Dirty Water A Growing Middle Class Quality of Life Tourism
34 ECONOMIC EVOLUTION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS DEVELOPED ECONOMY SUSTAINABILITY QUALITY OF LIFE TOURISM TRADE PRIMITIVE ECONOMY SURVIVAL RUBBISH SMELLS DEATH
35 CLIMATE CHANGE & WATER QUALITY Rubbish, Stink, Death (and Heat, and Rain and Wind) Biological Impacts Chemical Impacts Physical Impacts How Models Can Help
36 Growth rate 8 TEMPERATURE IMPACT ON MICROORGANISMS O C INCREASE DOUBLING OF RATE T ( o C) THIS IS WHY WE REFRIGERATE
37 TEMPERATURE IMPACT ON BIOLOGY SPECIES TOLERANCES Growth rate T ( o C) Diatoms Blue greens Greens
38 BLUEGREEN ALGAE AKA CYANOBACTERIA Form unsightly scums Cannot be eaten Some are highly toxic
39 HIGHER ORGANISMS: THE SALMONID IN THE COAL MINE Highly sensitive to temperature And chemistry and biology Some are endangered Recreational value (S. Africa) Commercial value (aquaculture)
40 LOWER MADISON MONTANA RIVER MONTANA Dam Ennis Lake
41 RIVER TEMPERATURE MODEL solar shortwave radiation atmospheric longwave radiation water longwave radiation conduction and convection evaporation and condensation AIR WIND WATER SEDIMENTS GROUND WATER
42 Simulation Results Ref: Gooseff et al. 2002
43 Impact of Climate Change* Ref: Gooseff et al * HADLEY GCM
44 CHEMICAL IMPACTS Oxygen: The Breath of Life 20 Highly supersaturated Dissolved Oxygen Concentration (mg/l) Saturated (T = 15 o C) Gamefish suffer Coarse fish suffer Anoxia (Smells)
45 OXYGEN SATURATION IN WATER TEMPERATURE EFFECT 16 T( o F) freshwater (S = 0 ppt) 12 o s (mg/l) 8 4 saltwater (S = 35 ppt) T( o C)
46 OXYGEN SATURATION IN WATER PRESSURE (ELEVATION) EFFECT 16 T( o F) sea level 12 o s (mg/l) km 3.2 km km (3 miles) T( o C)
47 PHYSICS It s not just temperature High flows More severe storms Low flows Less snow pack Longer dry periods
48 HIGH FLOWS Higher erosion Loss of topsoil Suspended solids Nutrients Siltation and habitat Light extinction
49 HIGH FLOWS Urban settings Stormwater overflow Shanty towns Disease transmission
50 LOW FLOWS Less snowpack Less baseflow Warmer groundwater Shallower rivers Less dilution
51 LOW FLOWS Estuaries Saltwater intrusion Organism shifts
52 HOW CAN MODELS HELP Holistic perspective What ifs Consciousness raising Management Planning Consensus building
53 Who nabbed Al Capone AKA Scarface Accountants!!!
54 If you want to catch a crook Follow the money! If you want to save the planet Follow the physics, the chemistry and the biology
55
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