D. Jin and P. Hoagland MITSG Sea Grant College Program Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139

Transcription

1 DECISION-SUPPORT FOR ECOSYSTEM-BASED FISHERY MANAGEMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF MARINE SPATIAL PLANNING: REGIONAL ECONOMIC IMPACT MODELS, MODEL OUTPUTS, AND TRADEOFF MEASURES D. Jin and P. Hoagland MITSG Sea Grant College Program Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge, Massachusetts NOAA Grant No. NA10OAR Project No R/RCM-31 Presented at the Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management, Boston, MA, June 11, 2013.

2 Decision support for Ecosystem based Fishery Management in the Context of Marine Spatial Planning: Regional Economic Impact Models, Model Outputs, and Tradeoff Measures Di Jin and Porter Hoagland Marine Policy Center Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

3 Acknowledgements * MIT Sea Grant College Program * Cooperative Institute for the North Atlantic Region (CINAR) * NOAA NEFSC Social Sciences Branch * NOAA Saltonstall Kennedy Grant Program * NOAA MARFIN Grant Program * WHOI Marine Policy Center * Eric Thunberg, John Steele, Andy Solow, Mike Fogarty, Tracy Dalton, Scott Steinback, Brooke Wikgren

4 Outline Ecosystem based management Food Web Models and Economic Models The Economic Ecological Framework Model Applications Recent work related to MSP Summary

5 Ecosystem Based Fishery Management Objectives of ecosystem based fishery management: (1) To avoid degradation of ecosystems as measured by indicators of environmental quality and system status; and (2) To account for the requirements of other ecosystem components (e.g., nontarget species, protected species, habitat considerations, and various trophic interactions). Pikitch et al. (2004)

6 Ecosystem Based Fishery Management (EBFM) requires: To develop new analytic tools to integrate different environmental, ecological, and socioeconomic data from various sources To capture explicitly the interactions among different components in the entire ecosystem To simulate and assess the effects of different management options.

7 Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning (CMSP) Coastal ocean is becoming more crowded Need to plan for what happens where Pre existing uses often favored Management process is being improved for spatial planning How can tradeoffs be assessed when one type of use could displace another? Need new analytic tools. v1/figs/2 21.htm

8 Food Web Models EMAX model of Georges Bank Link et al. (2008) End-to-End Model of Georges Bank Steele et al. (2007)

9 Economic Models Bio-economic: captures the complexity of non-linear systems but incorporates only 1-2 species and 1-2 industry impacts Input-output (I-O): includes numerous species and industries, but all coefficients (e.g., prices) are fixed Computable General Equilibrium (CGE): captures key non-linear interactions and develops estimates of welfare changes

10 Regional Economic Impact Model Outputs Regional Economic Impact Model Model Outputs Possible Tradeoff Measures Output Sales by industry Personal income Personal and self-employed income Input-Output (IO) Employment Full- and part-time jobs by industry Induced Effects Personal consumption expenditures Value added Gross state (county) product Tax revenues Government tax receipts Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Equivalent variation Net economic benefits Equilibrium price Prices of goods and services Equilibrium quantity Quantities of goods and services

11 Input Output Model Applications Evaluation of economic impacts: Fishery management alternatives Distribution across fishing communities Distribution across industry sectors Fleet rationalization efforts: American lobster Sea scallops

12 Circular Flow of the Economy Economic flows: factor and product markets Walrasian equilibrium Consumers optimize utility Firms optimize production Calibrate with a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) I/O Data (e.g., IMPLAN) Market specific data (e.g., commercial fisheries) Wing (2004)

13 Basic Components of a CGE Model Utility Capital K Labor L Composite Factor Y Intermediate Input X Output Z Imports M Domestic Sales D Exports E Armington Composite Commodity Q Household X C Government X G Investment X V Intermediate Input X production trade consumption

14 Example: An increase in fish biomass

15 An Economic Ecological CGE Framework Two models : A marine ecosystem model and a regional economic CGE model Model linkage: The two models run separately and exchange results Policy analysis: comparative statics with changes in equivalent variation (consumer surplus) Data: Models, software, and data sets from marine ecology and marine resource economics

16 New England Coastal Regional Economy Baseline Economic Value Sector/ Commodity Output Total Supply* Imports** Exports** Agriculture 2,554 7,790 5, Fishing Fish Processing 1, Manufacturing 194, ,124 90,030 37,608 Other 750, , , ,336 Millions of 2006 $ * Composite Commodity ** Including both domestic and foreign trade

17 Ecosystem Productivity Scenarios Collie et al. (2009); Steele et al. (2007) Baseline: foodweb configuration P III = reduce the role of invertebrate pelagic predators increases the abundance of all fish guilds ( foodweb)

18 Feeding Guilds (Steele et al. 2007) Piscivores Spiny dogfish Winter skate Silver hake Atlantic cod Pollock White hake Spotted hake Atlantic halibut Summer flounder Bluefish Sea raven Goosefish Planktivores Smooth dogfish Barndoor skate Little skate Thorny skate Haddock Red hake American plaice Yellowtail flounder Winter flounder Witch flounder Longhorn sculpin Cunner Ocean pout Fourspot flounder Benthivores Atlantic herring Butterfish Acadian redfish Northern sandlance Atlantic mackerel Windowpane Loligo squid Illex squid Smooth skate

19 Percent changes associated with ecosystem changes An increase in fish biomass Sector/ Commodity Output Supply Imports Exports Price Agriculture Fishing Fish Processing Manufacturing Other Millions of 2006 $

20 Distributional Effects Productivity scenario: P III Region comprises the New England coastal fishing communities Benefits are EV surplus gains ($) per household Distribution is skewed, reflecting seafood consumption habits Could map across communities $ $90.00 $80.00 $70.00 $60.00 $50.00 $40.00 $30.00 $20.00 $10.00 $0.00 Welfare Changes per Household with Collie et al. (2009) Productivity Scenarios ($/household) P(I) P(III) P(V) Surplus/Household ($) < $10 $10-15 $15-25 $25-35 $35-50 $50-75 $ $ > $150 Income Level ($000s) Welfare changes (equivalent variations) associated with changes in fishery stock (2006 $ millions) by household Income categories Total : $134.9 million

21 Model the Fishing Sub-sectors by Gear Type Agriculture Fishing Fish Processing Manufacturing Other Lobster Scallop Trawl Gillnet Other gears

22 Data Sources Nation income account data (IMPLAN) Social accounting matrix (SAM) Input-output (I-O) table Fishery data (NMFS-NEFSC) Fishery catch and employment data (To improve the resolution of commercial fishing and other related sectors) Ecological data (Food web models) Biomass of relevant components in a marine food web

23 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) Activity Commodity Factor Institution Foreign Trade Activity Make Domestic Trade Commodity Use Iuse Cexport Cexport Factor Value Added Fexport Fexport Institution Imake Distribution Transfer Foreign Trade Cimport Fimport Iimport Transfer Transfer Domestic Trade Cimport Fimport Iimport Transfer Transfer

24 New England Coastal Regional Economy Baseline Economic Value Sector/Commodity Output Total Supply Imports Exports Agriculture 2,554 7,790 5, Manufacturing 194, ,124 90,030 37,608 Other 750, , , ,336 Fish Processing 1, Fishing Lobster Scallop Trawl Gillnet Other gears Millions of 2006 $

25 Percent changes associated with ecosystem changes An increase in fish biomass Sector/Commodity Agriculture Manufacturing Other Fish Processing Fishing Output Supply Imports Exports Price Lobster Scallop Trawl Gillnet Other gears

26 Welfare Changes (Equivalent Variations) Associated with Changes in Fish Stocks (2006 $ millions) Household income categories Lobster & Trawl Trawl Lobster < 10K K K K K K K K K Total

27 Impacts of Climate Change on Fisheries Along- and across-shelf centers of distribution of Atlantic mackerel during Overholtz et al. 2011

28 Welfare change associated with changes in fish stocks (3 separate simulation runs) (2006 $ millions) Hypothetical Scenarios Change Trawl 10% increase + Lobster 10% decrease Trawl 10% increase + Lobster 10% increase Trawl 10% increase + Scallop 10% decrease

29 Potential Effect of a Wind Farm Closure Region comprises the New England coastal fishing communities Simulate a hypothetical large scale closure of trawling due to renewable energy leasing and siting (assume lose 10% of NE yields) Welfare losses are lost EV, shown as % of income per representative household in each income group Distribution is skewed, reflecting a regressive effect on lower income groups (although the size of the effect is small in this example) {Could also map across communities to understand the spatial impacts onshore?} 0.08% 0.07% 0.06% 0.05% 0.04% 0.03% < 10K 10 15K 15 25K 25 35K 35 50K 50 75K K K 150K+ $100 $2,700

30 Mapping the Net Revenue from Commercial Fishing Fishing vessel trip reports Location Gear type Days fished Catch by species

31 Net Revenue by Season: All Gears

32 Net Revenue by Season: Pots and Traps

33 Net Revenue by Season: Dredges

34 Net Revenue by Season: Bottom Trawl

35 Variability in Catch Revenue by Season

36 Variability in CPUE by Season

37 Multiple Use Analysis

38 Summary The implementation of CMSP and EBFM requires the development of new analytic tools. Recent developments in model building and user friendly software have made linked economic ecological analysis possible at multi sector level. We have developed a CGE model with multiple gear groups in New England fisheries. It is important to understand the spatial distributions of economic values from different uses. Important policy issues can be effectively evaluated through comparative statics analyses.

39 For the technical details:

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