Urban Environmental Transitions and Transportation Systems: Comparison of Western and Asian Experiences

Transcription

1 IGES/APN International Workshop on Sustainable Urban Development in Asia: Policy Integration Towards Sustainable Urban Energy Use for Cities in Asia 4-5 February 2003 Urban Environmental Transitions and Transportation Systems: Comparison of Western and Asian Experiences Peter J. Marcotullio Fellow United Nations University Institute of Advanced Studies Tokyo

2 Urban Environmental Transitions and Transportation Systems: Comparison of Western and Asian Experiences Peter J. Marcotullio and Yok-shiu Lee Background theory Brief History of US Urban Transportation System Development and Urban Environmental Conditions Cross Section of Asian Urban Transport Systems and Environmental Conditions Conclusions

3 Theoretical Elements Defining the Relationship between Urban Environmental Conditions and Development Urban Environmental Transition Long Waves of Development Globalization Time-space Compression

4 The Urban Environmental Transition Definition The environmental transition theory suggests that wealth (in terms of GDP) can be used to distinguish the environmental performance of cities (see for example, McGranahan et al, 1994).

5 Application to Various Environmental Issues Source: World Bank, 1992 Local to Global Immediate to Delayed Life to ecosystem Threatening Source: McGranahan, 2001

6 Long Wave/Kondratieff Cycles First Cycle Second Cycle Third Cycle Beginning of Beginning of Beginning of Beginning of Beginning of Beginning of Country Rise Decline Rise Decline Rise Decline England France United States Germany World Source: Extracted from N.D. Kondratieff (1979), Table 1. Notes: Ranges refer to the change in a bundle of elements which vary by country. France's elements include: prices, interest rates, portfolio of bank of France, savings deposits, wages of coal miners, imports exports, total foreign trade, coal consumption and oat acreage. England's includes: prices, interest rates, wages of agricultural laborers and textile workers, foreign trade, coal production, pig iron production and lead production. Elements for the USA include prices (only element for first and half of second cycle), pig iron production coal production and cotton acreage. Germany's elements include coal production. The World's elements include pig iron production and coal production.

7 Long Wave/Kondratieff Cycles in the USA

8 Globalization and Time Space Compression Globalization is a complex of inter-related processes, rather than an end-state. It is more than the geographical extension of economic activity across national boundaries but also and more importantly the functional integration of such internationally dispersed activities (Dicken, 1998: p. 5). It is a widening, deepening and speeding up of worldwide interconnectedness in all aspects of contemporary social life, from the cultural to the criminal, the financial to the spiritual (Held, et al, 1999) Time-space compression is the result of capitalism s compulsion to annihilate space by time and speed-up the pace of life, such that in overcoming barriers the world sometimes seems to collapse in upon us (Harvey, 1989).

9 Theoretical Difference Between Western and Asian Experiences Traditional Risks Schematic Representation of Difference Between Western and Current Experience of the Urban Environmental Transition The Western Experience Industrialization related Risks Wealth Impact of Globalization-driven Growth on Asian Cities Modern Risks Wealth Wealth Source: Marcotullio, 2002

10 Example of Compressed Development: US and Japanese Urbanization Rates Percent Urban USA Japan Year 2000

11 The Western Experience: Summary Techno-economic systems, urban development eras, associated urban environmental challenges and related dominant theories, technologies Kondratieff Cycle Technology systems Urban phase Environmental challenges To 1845 Wind, water, wood Mercantile cities Health (small pox, yellow fever, convulsions, A-Phase (peak 1814) cholera) water supply, street refuse, domestic B-Phase (trough 1843) animals, street drainage From 1845 to 1895 Coal, steam and steel Early industrial cities Health (pneunomia, tuberculosis, diarrhea) A-Phase (peak 1864) high densities, horses and rapid urban B-Phase (trough 1896) growth, provision of adequate water From 1895 to 1945 Petroleum, internal National industrial cities Health (pneunomia, tuberculosis, diarrhea, A-Phase (peak 1920) combustion engines occupational), clean water, mass consumption, B-Phase (trough 1930s) and electricity sanitation, sewerage, solid waste From Present Telecommunications Mature/post-industrial cities Health (circulatory system, cancer, nephritis, A-Phase (peak 1970s) electronics, new materials pneumonia including influenza) B-Phase (?) bio-technologies, new energy Air and water pollution, chemical and toxic waste, sprawl, consumption congestion, energy consumption, global emisions Notes: Kontratieff cycles: Kondratieff, 1979; Yeates, 1998, (citing Mager, 1987) p. 64. Technological systems: Berry, 1997, p.302; Lo, 1994 Urban phases: Yeates, 1998; Melosi, 2000 Environmental challenges: Health related from Jackson, 1995, Water supply, sewerage and sanitation from Melosi 2000, Chudacoff, 1981; O Hays, 1987, various sources Environmental theories, technologies, responses: Melosi, 2000; Chudacoff, 1981; Jackson, 1995

12 The Western/US Experience: History of Trends in Types of Environmental Conditions Health Related Industrialization Related Non-Point Source and Consumption Related Environment Burden Level Early Industrial City Phase 1940 National Industrial 1980 City Phase Developmental Phases Based Upon Techno-economic Systems Mature/Post- Industrial City Phase

13 The Western/US Urban Environmental Experience: Examples: Brown Agenda First proto-comprehensive water supply system in place in 1840s. By 1914, 40.5 percent of urban dwellers were drinking filtered water. By around 1925, over 78 percent of US cities had water supply infrastructure and almost 90 percent of cities had sewerage systems. Approximately 18 percent were treating their wastewater. By 1945, 62.7 percent of people living in sewered communities also had treated sewage. From 1890 to 1920 the death rate from typhoid dropped from to 7 per 100,000

14 The Western/US Urban Environmental Experience: Examples: Gray Agenda By the 1970s, CO, Lead, VOC and SO2 air pollutants had reached peak levels. They have all declined significantly thereafter. PM-10 reached peak levels in the 1950s and has been declining since. NOx reached peak levels in the 1970s, but has not declined. While respiratory illnesses such as tuberculosis declined, other lung problems such as emphysema and cancer received more attention. By 1970, onefourth of all living in the US would contract cancer during their lifetime. Two-thirds of these will died from it.

15 The Western/US Urban Environmental Experience: Examples: Green Agenda Sprawl: between 1992 and million acres (17,500 sq. miles or 43,325 sq. km) of land were developed in the USA (size is approximately one third the size of NY State). New York City has stopped parts of its recycling programme. US greenhouse gas emissions (water vapor, CO2, CH4, N20 and O3) have continued to rise. In 1997, they reached 1,813.6 million metric tons of carbon equivalents (MMTCE). Approximately a 11 percent increase from 1990.

16 Western/US Urban Transport Experience Physical Urban Dominant Urban Transportation-related Age Forms Environmental Challenges Technology Infrastructure Crises Mercantile (before 1845) "Walking" Water supply, sanitation, infectious diseases Walk, horse (animal), wind omnibus Ports, canals, "pikes" Fires, infectious disease Early Industrial ( ) Large urban, beginning of segregated land uses Water supply, sewage, sanitation, infectious diseases Omnibus, steam railway, horse street car, cable car, carriage, electric trolley, bicycle Paved streets, steam railway, subway, urban streetcar tracks, "elevated" Infectious disease, horse manure, congestion, connecting country with city National Industrial ( ) Metropolitan, beginning of suburbanization, formation of Central Business Districts, skyscrapers, large infrastructure Water quality, sewage treatment, rise of industrial chemical pollution, Urban mortality penalty crossed Trolley, automobile, subway, bus, beginning of air travel Parkways, toll bridges and tunnels, Road infrastructure, dispersing urban population, beginning of industrial and auto related pollution Post- Industrial (A ) De-industrialization, Commercial and service areas, suburbanization accelerates, large infrastructure Industrial-related water, air and hazardous waste pollution Large auto vehicles, commercial jet (high speed) airplanes Highways, large vehicles, dismantling of public mass transit Water and air pollution, congestion, traffic accidents, infrastructure maintenance (B Present) Exopolis development, recentralization and exurbanization Sustainable "green" agenda issues Light rail, transit related developments, large body jets, fuel efficient cars, SUVs Smart growth and traffic management Infrastructure maintenance, congestion, air pollution, traffic accidents, GHGs, O3 and acid rain

17 The Asian Urban Environmental Experience and Transportation Systems: History of Trends in Types of Environmental Conditions Brown Related Gray Related Green Related Environment Burden Level

18 0.80 Figure 3 The Environmental Transition 1995 National Level Data CO2 Emissions Per Capita Y = (e 1.793X) R2 =.68 sign Standardized Value Percent Non-access to Safe Water Y = (2.087/X) R2 =.28 sign.000 SO2 Emissions Per Capita Y = (2.574X)+(-0.346X2) R2 =.22 sign Log GDP Per Capita Source: Marcotullio, 2002

19 Estimated Urban Population Living Under Different Environmental Conditions Total Urban Population Share of 1995 GDP Category Environmental (thousands) Total (US$) Challenge (N) (%) < Lack of Water and Sanitation ("brown" issues) 456, > and < 1, Rising Industrial pollution ("gray" issues), and significant "brown" issues 518, > 1, and < 3, High "grey" issues, rising modern risks ("green" issues) and "brown" issues 526, > 3, and < 14,125.3 High but decreasing "gray" issues, rising "green" issues 296, > 14,125.3 Largely "green" issues 613, Missing 147, Total global urban population 2,560,195 Source: Marcotullio, 2002

20 Urban Environmental Conditions for Selected Asian Countries Non-access to Per Capita Income Level Urban Population Clean Water CO2 Environment Issue Country Name (US$) (thousands) (percent) (tonnes/capita) Predominantly Brown Issues Bhutan Nepal , Vietnam , Cambodia , Lao PDR Significant Brown Issues, Rising Gray Issues China , Indonesia 1, , High Gray Issues, Decreasing Brown Issues and Rising Green Issues Philippines 1, , Thailand 2, , High, but Decreasing Gray Issues, Rising Green Issues Malaysia 4, , Republic of Korea 10, , Predominately Green Issues Hong Kong 23, Singapore 25, , Japan 40, , Data Sources: WRI Database , UN Urban Population Prospects 1999

21 Changes in Vehicle Ownership in Selected Asian Cities Vehicle Ownership in selected Asian cities, 1993 Car ownership Motorcycle ownership Vehicle ownership (per 1000 persons) (per 1000 persons) (per 1000 persons) Hong Kong Surabaya Manila Jakarta Singapore Seoul City Kuala Lumpur Bangkok Tokyo Source: Barter, 1999

22 Categories of Asian Cities based upon private car ownership, public transport and motorcycle ownership Criterion 1. Car ownership and private car use relative to GRP per capita 2. Private versus public transport mobility trends 3. Motorcycle ownership Suggested Groups of Cities Manila, Jakarta and Surabaya Seoul, Hong Kong, Singapore and Tokyo Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok Surabaya and Jakarta Singapore, Seoul, Manila, Hong Kong and Tokyo Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok, Surabaya, Jakarta Singapore, Tokyo, Seoul, Hong Kong, Manila Comments Low car motorization with open options. Of the three, Surabaya has the least restrained private transport and Manila has the most. Delayed or restrained motorization. Unrestrained motorization and private vehicle use. Low motorized mobility per person (but private mobility has been rising faster than public transport). High public transport mobility (almost as high or higher than private). But only in Hong Kong has public transport mobility been rising much faster than private. Private mobility higher than public. Both public and private transport increasing but private has increased faster. High motorcycle ownership. In Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok, motorcycle ownership have continued to rise quickly despite rising incomes and car ownership passing 150 cars per persons. Motorcycle ownership below 50 per 1000 people, and in some cases actually falling. Source: Adapted from Barter, 1999

23 Conclusions - 1 There is evidence of the urban environmental transition in both the USA and Asian cities; The transition, however, has been experienced differently. While urban environmental challenges appeared more slowly and in sequential order (including changes in transportation systems, in Asian cities they appeared under a more compressed period of time and have telescoped/overlapped; In terms of compressed and telescoped transitions Asian urban transportation systems are increasingly motorized from private vehicle use, with emphasis on motorcycles, and at low income; Source: CEISIN

24 Conclusions - 2 These overlapping environmental conditions have significant implications for both theory and urban environmental governance Telescoping sets of environmental experiences define a new development pathway, not experienced by Western cities, shedding doubt on modernization theories Compressed and telescoping sets of environmental conditions suggests only integrated approaches to urban environmental burdens, both across sectors and scales, are appropriate to deal with current situations. Source: CEISIN