Partnership: Designing Country Profiles on Sustainable Energy Development

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1 Partnership: Designing Country Profiles on IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency

2 Designing Country Profiles on To take stock on a country s status quo on sustainable energy development To define and test a systematic and comprehensive forward looking approach To identify sustainable energy strategies To assess progress towards a sustainable energy future To build capacity OBJECTIVES IAEA 2

3 Capacity Building Improving the skills and analytical capabilities in MS to undertake sound energyenvironment analyses to foster informed policy decisions towards meeting their sustainable development objectives Develop and transfer energy models tailored to developing country circumstances Transfer the latest data on technologies, resources and economics Provide extensive training to local experts Assist in the conduct of national energy studies Help strengthen institutional capabilities for energy IAEA system planning and development 3

4 IAEA energy analysis models Model for the Analysis of Energy Demand Wien Automatic System Planning Package Energy and Power Evaluation Programme Model for Energy Supply System Alternatives and their General Environmental impacts Financial Analysis of Electric Sector Expansion Plans Simplified Approach for Estimating Impacts of Electricity Generation MAED WASP ENPEP MESSAGE FINPLAN SIMPACTS IAEA 4

5 Designing Country Profiles on Country Profiles Brazil (completed) South Africa (completed) Cuba (being edited) IAEA 5

6 Designing Country Profiles on Participants Brazil Ministry of Mines and Energy Ministry of Science and Technology Secretariat for the Environment, State of Sao Paulo Eletrobras International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Latin American Energy Org (OLADE) COPPE, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Center for Biomass (CENBIO), University of Sao Paulo IAEA 6

7 Designing Country Profiles on Participants South Africa University of Cape Town (South Africa) International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) IAEA 7

8 Designing Country Profiles on APPROACH Based on ISED Taking Stock Future Development Scenarios (Looking forward) Strategies and Goal for Sustainable Energy Development Indicators of Success (ISED) IAEA 8

9 ISED 100% Electricity access in Ghana 80% electricity access 60% 40% 20% 0% urban rural Electricity intensity of GDP GWh/ billion currency units Historical Planned 0.10 IAEA

10 Model for the Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED) INPUT OUTPUT Energy sector data (base year final energy balance) Scenario assumptions Socioeconomic Technological Substitutable energy uses Process efficiencies Hourly load characteristics MAED Useful energy demand by category Final energy demand by fuel Electricity demand Degree of electrification Hourly electric load Load duration curves IAEA 10

11 Model for Energy Supply System Alternatives and their General Environmental impacts (MESSAGE) INPUT Energy system structure (including vintage of plant and equipment) Base year energy flows and prices Energy demand projections (MAED) Technology and resource options & their technoeconomic performance profiles Technical and policy constraints MESSAGE OUTPUT IAEA 11 TWh biomass geoth hydro nuclear gas diesel fuel oil Primary and final energy mix Emissions and waste streams Resource use Land use Import dependence & supply security Investment requirements Prices coal

12 Brazil: The First Country Profile An ideal candidate Broad mix of energy resources and technologies Worldwide valuable environmental assets A large country with high energy demand expectations IAEA 12

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14 Contents 1. Introduction 2. Status 3. Domestic energy resources 4. Indigenous and adapted energy technologies and energy 5. Efficiency 6. Energy and economic development 7. Energy, the environment and health 8. Energy and social issues 9. Energy security 10. Policy options for sustainable energy development 11. Scenarios 12. Conclusions and lessons learned IAEA 14

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23 Criteria Energy options are progressively less environmentally damaging and minimize the transfer of intergenerational environmental costs Renewable energy options are increasingly used. Supply options based on long-term sustainable energy. Natural resources are used more efficiently. Energy supply chains create jobs and income. Promote indigenous technology development. Energy options minimize energy vulnerability. Energy options permit optimal universal access to energy services IAEA 23

24 Reference Electricity generation Electricity generation Shift IAEA 24

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26 : Conclusions The Brazil study comprises a first of its kind interlinking of energy system modelling and the use of indicators for sustainable energy development to assess the consonance between energy policies and energy development strategies, and the social, environmental and economic development goals of the country. This marriage of scenario and indicator analysis is a unique feature of the project that has already captured international attention and has begun to be emulated in a number of countries. Capacity building in the areas of energy and environmental planning within a sustainable development context was one of the main goals of this project. through a process of defining sustainable development criteria in the context of the energy sector, and reconciling the several different objectives and elements thereof; developing expertise in modelling a number of different possible futures for the national energy system under a variety of policy assumptions; and using indicators to measure progress in achieving selected sustainable development goals. IAEA 26

27 : Conclusions Defining sustainable development and its various components, and selecting appropriate policies is a continuous process. The same is true for delineating the relationship between energy use, economic development and environmental protection. Reaching a consensus for the purposes of this study was an essential but iterative process, with no single correct outcome. The project could be described as developing a rigorous discipline of introspection with regard to energy policy and sustainable development choices in Brazil. Scenario modelling has great advantages in such cases for exploring and comparing a range of possible outcomes for further consideration. Developing scenarios permits analysts to probe the possible future outcomes of present and past policy choices. The national teams in Brazil developed expertise in the use of energy system assessment models, to be used for devising scenarios of possible future energy system development paths and for mapping their consequences. IAEA 27

28 South Africa: The Second Country Profile Another ideal candidate Broad mix of energy resources and experience in advanced technologies technologies Large share of population with no access to modern energy services High energy demand expectations IAEA 28

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30 Contents 1. Energy for sustainable development: an introduction 2. Introduction to South Africa s energy system 3. Energy demand 4. Energy supply in South Africa 5. Social issues 6. Energy and economic development 7. Energy and the environment 8. Identifying and modelling policy options 9. Modelling framework and drivers 10. Results of scenario modelling 11. Energy indicators of sustainable development 12. Conclusions IAEA 30

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40 Country Profiles on for Sustainable Energy Development: Conclusions The tools used in this analysis a modelling framework combined with indicators of sustainable development provide a useful way of examining policy options and trade-offs Over the 25-year timeframe, energy efficiency makes much sense. Industrial efficiency in particular shows significant savings in energy, costs and air pollution, with commercial energy showing a similar pattern on a slightly smaller scale. Residential energy efficiency is very important for social sustainability (small energy savings can make a big difference to poorer households). In the longer-term, transitions that include the supply-side become important. IAEA 40

41 Country Profiles on for Sustainable Energy Development: Conclusions The various electricity supply options show potential for significant emission reductions and improvements in local air quality but trade-offs exist between energy system costs, energy security and diversity of supply. Combined, the emission reductions achieved by all the policies analysed here add up to 69 Mt CO2 (10% of base case emissions) by 2015, and 142 Mt (24%) CO2 by In general, the modelling shows that the global costs (discounted total energy system costs) for the combined scenario are lower than for the base case by some R16 billion over the full 25-year period. This certainly suggests that the savings of the combined efficiency measures outweigh the additional costs of investing in a diversified electricity supply. IAEA 41

42 Contact & Further Information H-Holger Rogner International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) P.O. Box 100 A-1400 Vienna Austria Tel: Fax: IAEA 42

43 IAEA atoms for peace. IAEA 43