IAEA s Programme on Advanced Energy Planning and Economic Studies

Transcription

1 s Programme on Advanced Energy Planning and Economic Studies David Shropshire, Section Head Planning and Economic Studies Section (PESS) Technical Meeting on Technology Assessment for SMRs Chengdu, China, 2-4 Sept International Atomic Energy Agency

2 Objective: Help Member States build the capability to perform energy assessments Develop sustainable energy strategies. Identify the potential contribution of different technologies, including nuclear power, in meeting future energy needs. 02 September

3 Capacity building has three vectors Capacity Building for energy assessment Information Dissemination Analytical Tools and Training Technical Assistance for National Energy Studies 02 September

4 Capacity building can be customized to meet Member State needs Capacity Building for energy and nuclear power planning at Regional and Sub-regional levels (e.g., ECOWAS). Support to new comers for conducting Prefeasibility and Feasibility studies for introducing nuclear power. 02 September

5 PESS Capacity Building is Hands-On Currently 40 Active TC Projects in 34 Countries 02 September

6 Capacity Building in the Classroom 02 September

7 etraining (Distance Learning) Video Conferences On-Line Tutor 02 September

8 Distance Learning ANENT OLADE 02 September

9 PESS continues to advance new elearning tools In 2012, more than 200 people (over 30% of those trained) were trained using elearning. 02 September

10 PESS has developed a full suite of analytic tools for Energy Assessment MAED Energy Demand WASP Expansion Plans MESSAGE FINPLAN SIMPACTS Energy Mix Finance Health & Environmental Impacts 02 September

11 Model for the Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED) INPUT Energy sector data (energy balance) Scenario assumptions Socioeconomic Technological Substitutable energy uses Process efficiencies Hourly load characteristics MAED OUTPUT Useful or final energy demand by sector/fuel Electricity demand Degree of electrification Hourly electric load Load duration curves 02 September

12 Model for Energy Supply System Alternatives and their General Environmental impacts TWh INPUT OUTPUT Energy system structure (including vintage of plant and equipment) Base year energy flows and prices Energy demand projections (MAED) Technology and resource options & their techno-economic performance profiles Technical and policy constraints MESSAGE biomass geoth hydro nuclear gas diesel fuel oil Primary and final energy mix Emissions and waste streams Health and environmental impacts (externalities) Resource use Land use Import dependence Investment requirements coal 02 September

13 Wien Automatic System Planning Package (WASP) INPUT OUTPUT Load forecast Existing system Candidates Constraints: Reliability Implementation Fuel Generation Emissions WASP Build schedule Generation Costs Fuel consumption Emissions 02 September

14 Financial Analysis of Electric Sector Expansion Plans INPUT OUTPUT Investment programme (= capacity additions) & operating expenses Economic and fiscal parameters (inflation, escalation, exchange rates, taxes) Financial parameters (credits, bonds ) FINPLAN For each year: Cash flows Balance Sheet, Statement of Sources, Applications of Funds Financial Ratios: - Working Capital Ratio - Leverage ratio - Debt Repayment Ratio - Global Ratio 02 September

15 Simplified Approach for Estimating Impacts of Electricity Generation INPUT Case 1 (minimum data requirements): pollutant emission rates regional population density (< 1000 km) source location (urban/rural) Case 2 (some more data): stack characteristics local population (<50 km) Case 3 (even more data): local metrological data (wind directions & speed) population around the source (10x10 km) SIMPACTS Estimate 1 Estimate 2 Estimate 3 OUTPUT Case 1 (minimal results): uniform world model (UWM) estimate for total exposure quantification of health impacts monetisation of impacts Case 2 (more output): estimates 1 adjusted for effective stack height (including H+Vexit+Texit) Case 3 (even more output): Gaussian plume used for local exposure and impact estimate estimates 2 adjusted for more accurate pollutant & receptor distribution 02 September

16 Energy Models Dissemination 128 countries (majority regular users) 02 September

17 Follow-up Expert Support 02 September

18 National Studies 02 September

19 Regional /Sub-regional Studies 02 September

20 National Studies 02 September

21 Tools and Methodologies for Energy System Planning and Nuclear Energy System Assessments 02 September

22 Energy Economics Environmental (3E) Analysis Climate change, sustainable energy: NE s role in Post Framework -SDGs & -Kyoto Climate Change regime. Coordinated Research Projects on: i) climate impacts on energy; and ii) financing NE investments. Economic and social impacts of NE: development and testing. (New) Role of NE in energy system integration: transport, load shifts, smart grids, energy storage, as a potential collaboration with NE-NP (LOADCAPS). (New) Multi-criteria comparative assessments: NE versus shale gas (fraking); CO 2 capture and disposal; and renewables. 02 September

23 also supports Socio-economic Development, Climate Protection and Energy Security Highlighted Publications 02 September

24 Finally, Investigate new roles and markets for new flexible nuclear energy systems SMRs in the energy mix can enhance the penetration from Renewable Energy in the energy mix; Nuclear Cogeneration (heat and power); Hybrid Energy Systems. 02 September

25 Thank you 02 September