Full Technical Proposal for. Java Water Resources (FMIS) Strategic Study (JWRSS)

Transcription

1 Joint Full Cooperation Technical Proposal Program for (JCP) Full Technical Proposal for Flood Activity Management Report January Information 2010-March System 2013 Study Java Water Resources (FMIS) Strategic Study (JWRSS)

2 Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) Activity Report January 2011 March 2013 Eelco van Beek Kees Bons Janjaap Brinkman

3 Title Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) Client Water Mondiaal / PvW Netherlands Embassy Jakarta Project Reference VEB-0047 Pages 1 Keywords Indonesia, IWRM planning, climate change, floods, droughts, lowlands, FEWS, DEWS Summary This document presents the Activities and Results of the Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) from January 2011 till March References 1. Joint Cooperation Program , Outline Program Project Digest, July Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) , Project Document - Work plan Initiation phase (Yr-1 and Yr-2), October 19, Joint Cooperation Program (JCP), Inception Report, May Joint Cooperation Program (JCP), Progress Report , November 16, Joint Cooperation Program (JCP), Year Plan 2012, December Joint Cooperation Program (JCP), Financiële voortgangsrapportage 2011, 15 Maart Joint Cooperation Program (JCP), Progress Report , April 3, Joint Cooperation, A Vision on Sustainability, memo, July Joint Cooperation Program (JCP), Year Plan 2013, January 2013 Version Date Author Initials Review Initials Approval Initials 0.1 May 2013 Eelco van Beek Rinus Vis Hans Vissers Kees Bons 1.0f July 2013 Eelco van Beek Rinus Vis Hans Vissers State Final Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March 2013

4 Contents 1 Introduction Background and objective of JCP Approach of first phase of JCP towards sustainable cooperation Project components Set-up of this report 3 2 WRM planning and Development of IWRM Tools Supporting the Pola process for the EDB river basin in Papua Setting up a Training-of-Trainers programme for Pola and Rencana development Supporting PusAir in establishing a WMO Regional Training Centre on Hydrology Summary of outcome of activity 13 3 Jakarta Extreme Precipitation PhD research on Jakarta Extreme Precipitation Other activities Summary of outcome of activity 16 4 Water Management Datasets for River Basins Activities Deliverables and technical training / workshops Recommended next steps Summary of outcome of activity 22 5 Assessing Lowland / Peatland subsidence and future drainability Activities Deliverables and technical training / workshops Recommended next steps Summary of outcome of activity 28 6 Drought Mapping and Drought Early Warning Activities Deliverables and technical training / workshops Recommended next steps Summary of outcome of activity 36 7 Flood Forecasting and Operational Management Activities Deliverables, training and workshops Indirect spin-off of activities and on-going activities Application of the Flood Forecasting System Jakarta Floods Future developments towards the National System Summary of outcome of activity 48 Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March 2013 i

5 8 What has been achieved? How to continue JCP? Organizational set-up JCP towards a sustainable cooperation Extending JCP with new partners Future organizational set-up of JCP Funding Preparing for JCP-II Activities for JCP-II Securing funding Summarizing evaluation of first phase JCP 57 Annex A Overview of documents prepared by JCP during first phase 60 A.1 Component A Management and Institutional Development 60 A.2 Component B WRM planning and IWRM tools 60 A.3 Component C2 Datasets for River Basins 61 A.4 Component C3 Lowland / peatland subsidence future drainability 61 A.5 Component D1 DEWS 61 A.6 Component D2 FEWS 61 Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March 2013 ii

6 Table of Figures Figure 1-1 Context of activities JCP... 3 Figure 2-1 The place of Pola and Rencana in the IWRM process... 5 Figure 2-2 Oldeman agro-climatic zones based on TRMM bias-corrected precipitation input showing that the southern part of the basin is relatively dry... 7 Figure 2-3 Discussion with local authorities in Merauke during a field visit... 8 Figure 2-4 Comparison of dependable rainfall with water requirements for oil palm... 9 Figure 2-5 Discussion during the first workshop in Citeko, Bogor Figure 3-1 Time evolution of the fraction of precipitation in 4 different intensity classes Figure 3-2 Mean diurnal cycle of rainfall for different time periods (all year round) Figure 4-1 Figure 4-2 Prototype of hydrometeorological database with map interface as implemented in Delft-FEWS Participants workshop on the use of global datasets for hydrometeorological analysis in areas with sparse data Figure 5-1 Sei Ahas, project area in Central Kalimantan Figure 5-2 The different steps used to create a peat thickness map Figure 5-3 The concept of drainage limit, not all available peat carbon is available for oxidation Figure 6-1 Examples of monthly generated drought map Figure 6-2 Validation regions for calibration of satellite precipitation data Figure 6-3 Calibration of the different regions Figure 6-4 Figure 6-5 Working on FEWS/DEWS configuration at Deltares (right) and visit to the Maeslantkering during the study tour to the Netherlands (left) Some screenshots of the Android application developed by BMKG, in this example the bias-corrected precipitation total for January 2013 is shown Figure 7-1 Floods in the city of Jakarta Figure 7-2 Floods in the city of Jakarta Figure 7-3 National Water Information System under development by JCP Figure 7-4 Data collection from telemetry networks Jakarta basin Figure 7-5 Hydrodynamic modelling in Flood forecasting Figure 7-6 Explaining the FEWS/DEWS system to Public Works Deputy Minister Achmad Hermanto Dardak by PusAir employees Figure 7-7 Real-time imported radar images Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March 2013 iii

7 Figure 7-8 Views of data and forecasts Figure 7-9 On the job training course with PusAir and BMKG employees Figure 7-10 J-FEWS client in the BMGK Control Room Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March 2013 iv

8 1 Introduction 1.1 Background and objective of JCP This document presents the results of the first phase of the Joint Cooperation Program (JCP). Initiatives to set-up JCP started in 2010, with the aim to formalize the existing cooperation between the four institutes KNMI, BMKG, PusAir and Deltares. The objective of JCP as stated in the Joint Cooperation Agreement of JCP is to carry out a long-term knowledge sharing and capacity building program between the institutes. The ultimate aim is to increase the state of the art of the knowledge base of all the institutes involved and to strengthen the capacity in Indonesia to plan, develop and manage their (marine and fresh) water resources systems. The institutional strengthening applies not only to the separate Indonesian institutes BMKG and PusAir but also to the very important cooperation between these two institutes. The institutional strengthening applies as well to the two Netherlands institutes KNMI and Deltares as the cooperation provides an opportunity for them to further develop their knowledge, tools and experience. The growing socio-economic pressures have made that climate change and the closely related water resource management have become global issues and requires that KNMI and Deltares continue to be important international players in their respective fields. Long-standing relations exist between the 4 partners of the Joint Cooperation Programme. The meteorological agencies of BMKG and KNMI have had knowledge exchange programmes for decades. The water management institutes PusAir and Deltares have had joint research and advisory programmes since the 1970s, including the BTAs (Bilateral Technical Assistance projects such as BTA-60 and BTA-155) that were funded by the Netherlands in the 1980s and 1990s. Such Technical Assistance was in some ways a rather one-directional process: international experts had a lead role in the definition of topics, research areas and approaches, in analyses, and in the reporting of results. In the JCP, the approach is more collaborative and two-way. Many of the topics and research areas were defined primarily by the Indonesian counterparts, who are also equal partners in analyses and reporting. This approach aims to enhance the capacity at PusAir and BMKG to independently carry out tasks for Indonesian Government. It also suits the aim of preparing Indonesian organizations for a role as professional counterparts in international projects, with organizations like KNMI and Deltares. The activities of the JCP are described in the project document of JCP, version October 19, The project document has been discussed with the Netherlands Embassy and Water Mondiaal. By letter of January 5, 2011 the Netherlands has informed Deltares, as lead partner of the JCP, about their support for the activities of the JCP by means of a subsidy of 1 million Euro. This amount was later increased to 1,2 million Euro when the Partner for Water program added 0,2 million Euro. In the final stages of the first phase an addendum to JCP was provided by the Netherlands Embassy for the involvement of JCP in the analysis of the floods in Jakarta in January The Indonesian Government on its side provided the financial resources for BMKG and PusAir through increases in their yearly budgets. Upon confirmation of the financial arrangements the JCP partners have started to mobilize their resources. This resulted in the organization of an Inception workshop in Indonesia in the week January Day 1 and 2 of that week consisted of joint meetings at PusAir in Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

9 Bandung, followed by 2 days of bilateral meetings and concluded with a wrap-up meeting on day 5 at BMKG in Jakarta. Based on the results of that week an Inception report was drafted and presented to the Indonesian and Netherlands authorities for discussion and approval. The cooperation should be seen as an elaboration of the Water Mondiaal program (Water at a world wide scale) of the Dutch Government which is an integral part of their policy as defined by the National Water Plan ( ). Water Mondiaal establishes long term collaborative partnerships with 5 delta areas in the world, among others in Indonesia. These partnerships aim to search for effective adaptation strategies in the light of climate change and exchange knowledge and experience to achieve sustainable development objectives (incl. the MDGs). The Ministry Infrastructure and Environment (I&M, Formerly Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management) is the lead Netherlands organisation to establish the cooperation with Indonesia. The two Netherlands partners have close ties with this Ministry as their mandates and their funding are for a large extent determined by this Ministry. The Joint Cooperation described in this document fits perfectly in the intended collaborative partnerships of Water Mondiaal and support the Ministry of I&M in their task in this program. Two phases have been identified for JCP: a first phase (Initiation Phase) of 2 years and a second phase of 3 years. This report describes the activities and results of the first phase. 1.2 Approach of first phase of JCP towards sustainable cooperation The identified JCP components have been defined based on priorities set by BMKG and PusAir during the proposal and Inception period. These components were our starting point. However, given the fact that the main objective of the JCP is to support BMKG and PusAir in their formal governmental tasks with respect to meteorology, hydrology and water management, JCP remained flexible and adjusted its activities when priorities changed or emergencies came up that BMKG and PusAir needed to address. Regular management contacts between the Indonesian and Netherlands partners ensured that priorities were addressed and activities were adjusted accordingly. Each 6 months a formal adjusted planning was made and agreed upon in a management meeting with all JCP partners. An important element of the first phase of JCP was to lay the foundation for a continued and sustainable cooperation between Netherlands and Indonesian knowledge partners. The primary condition for a sustainable cooperation is the technical and financial added value that the partners see in the cooperation. Showing that added value has been the a major point of the first phase. The cooperation by itself has been successful. First attempts have been made to translate this into a more sustainable organizational structure for JCP. 1.3 Project components The activities of the first phase of JCP are structured in 5 components: A till E. Some components distinguished 2 or 3 sub-components. Planning and progress reporting on JCP have been based on these (sub) components: Component A: Management and Institutional Development Component B: WRM planning (IWRM) and development of IWRM tools Sub-component C1: Jakarta Extreme Precipitation Sub-component C2: Water Management Datasets for River Basins Sub-component C3: Lowland / Peatland subsidence future drainability Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

10 Sub-component D1: Drought Mapping and Drought Early Warning (DEWS) Sub-component D2: Flood Forecasting and Operational Management (FEWS) Component E: New activities The JCP components have been placed in context of the overall responsibilities that the Government of Indonesia has for water management. This is illustrated in Figure 1-1. A distinction is made between two perspectives: policy support (mid and long-term planning such as for the Pola and Rencana) and operational support (event and day-to-day decisions). Component B and C focus on the first perspective and Component D on the latter. Component A focuses on the institutional aspect of the JCP and aim at connecting the individual components where relevant. Component E was a budget reservation for new activities that could not be placed (yet) in the other components. Operational support Policy support Floods Drought Flood early warning D2 Drought early warning D1 End user Integrated RBM - flooding - water shortage - water quality Approaches & Tools B Data Weather forecast C2 Historic database Climate scenarios C1 Real-time data Historic data Figure 1-1 Context of activities JCP Most activities defined for the Initiation phase of JCP were completed by the end of Component A took care of the managerial tasks involved in JCP. This includes the coordination of the activities of the various sub-components and the contacts with the clients of JCP. This component covers also the more general JCP activities such as the study tours. As such this component can be considered to be the engine of JCP. Jointly the partners were responsible for progress reporting, year plans, the report on sustainable JCP cooperation ( ), the development of JCP-II and this report. 1.4 Set-up of this report This report describes the results of first phase of JCP. Chapters 2 till 7 describe the activities, major achievements and specific deliverables of the various components B, C and D of JCP. Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

11 These are described as rather stand-alone activities but where appropriate connections are made between the different components. In Chapter 8 a kind of assessment is given of these in light of our over-arching aim to establish a more permanent cooperation and possible organizational structure for JCP. This includes the developments of extending JCP with new partners, our finding on possible organizational structures for JCP and the foreseen activities for JCP-II. Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

12 2 WRM planning and Development of IWRM Tools This chapter describes the results of Component B. On request of DGWRD of the Ministry of PU this component has focused it activities on the on-going river basin planning process in Indonesia, i.e. the development of Pola (strategic) and Rencana (operational) plans. The activities involved: The support of the Pola process for the Eiland-Digul-Bikuma (EDB) river basin in Papua (described in section 2.1); and The set-up of a Training-of-Trainer programme for Pola and Rencance development (section 2.2) In addition support has been provided to PusAir to establish a WMO regional training center on hydrology in the institute (section 2.3). 2.1 Supporting the Pola process for the EDB river basin in Papua This activity has addressed the development of an Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) study in the Einlanden-Digul-Bikuma (EDB) basin in eastern Papua Province as a case study to develop tools and capacity for IWRM. The study involved desk research and computation, and three field visits to the basin. The catchment has been selected to prepare a hydrological assessment of available water resources to serve as a support tool for the revision of the strategic management plan developed at the river basin scale the Pola. Developing the Pola is a responsibility of the local water basin authority (Balai Wilayah Sungai or BWS), and it is an obligation following the implementation of the 2004 Water Law of the Government of Indonesia. Development of the Pola is requested by the Water Resources Directorate General (DG-WR) of the Indonesia Ministry of Public Works (PU), which ultimately decides on the quality of the submitted plan, accepting or rejecting the final document. DG- WR has requested JCP to support revision of the existing draft Pola for the EDB basin. Figure 2-1 The place of Pola and Rencana in the IWRM process The Einlanden-Digul-Bikuma (EDB) river basin is situated in the South Eastern part of Papua province in Indonesia. The surface area of the basin is approximately 133,000 km 2, and the current population living in the basin amounts to about 524,000 inhabitants. The EDB is a river basin unit covering the administrative boundaries of 8 kabupaten. Of these, the Merauke Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

13 district is the one where the bulk of the commercial and agricultural activity is currently taking place in the basin. At present, it is reported that the area for rice cultivation is about 37,000 hectares, where at least one rice harvest a year is obtained from rainfed paddy cultivation. On approximately half of this area a second, irrigated crop is cultivated during the dry season. The analytical approach for the implementation of the EDB case study has involved four phases, namely: the sourcing of global datasets containing the information to generate the input maps for the hydrological modelling, and the consequent preparation of the input maps (global data sets where used in the absence of sufficient local data on hydrology and meteorology); the construction of the W-Flow hydrological model for the EDB basin with parameterization of model inputs; the generation of the model discharge series with validation of model results; the setting up of a multi-criteria analysis to evaluate different water development strategies as foreseen by local and national government authorities Where applicable, the assessment of the selected criteria for the multi-criteria evaluation has taken into account the outcome of the water availability assessment resulting from the hydrological analysis. The main inputs used for the analysis have been global datasets providing information for topography (SRTM from NASA), land cover (GlobCover from ESA), soil types (HWSD from FAO), precipitation (TRMM from NASA) and potential evapotranspiration (Global-PET from CSI-CGIAR). These datasets provided the input to elaborate the required maps for the running of the hydrological model that generated the discharge series: the W-Flow model. 17 river sub-catchments have been identified in the EDB basin. River discharge series for the EDB sub-catchments have been generated for the period March 2002 December 2011, based on the availability of TRMM precipitation data. The EDB basin is located in the inter-tropical climatic zone, with one dry and one wet season a year. Usually the dry season runs from June to October, and the wet season from November to May. Based on the TRMM input data for precipitation, the average rainfall in the EDB catchment has been estimated to reach 2,760 mm/year. Yet, rainfall patterns show high variability, both in terms of time and space. Over the same observation period ( ), average annual rainfall varies between a total of 1,650mm/year for sub-catchments located in the south-eastern part of the basin (Sakiramke sub-catchment), to 4,240 mm/year for catchments which are more upstream (Lorentz sub-catchment). A positive correlation between precipitation on the one hand, and elevation and distance from the coast on the other has been detected, with precipitation being higher in the mountainous area as compared to coastal areas. Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

14 Figure 2-2 Oldeman agro-climatic zones based on TRMM bias-corrected precipitation input showing that the southern part of the basin is relatively dry Model output revealed that, for the time period considered, average annual discharge at the EDB catchment scale can be estimated as 7,960 m3/s varying in a range between 4,400 and 10,500 m 3 /s in the dry and wet season respectively. In terms of annual mean discharge, the main 4 rivers in the basin are the Einlanden (3,133 m 3 /s), Digul (2.127 m 3 /s), Mappi (580 m 3 /s) and Lorentz (380 m3/s). All the other rivers in the basin have an estimated average annual discharge below the 250 m 3 /s. Variability in discharge pattern between the dry and the wet season is higher for those sub-basins whose catchments are located in the south-eastern and coastal areas. In these parts of the catchment total rainfall amounts are lower, and so is the rainfall contribution to river discharge. Given the small size of commercial and industrial activities in the basin, most of the current water demand in the Einlanden-Digul- Bikuma catchment is represented by domestic water use and irrigation. No large demand for water by the energy or industrial sector has been identified. Comparing water availability with water demand in the basin, it appears that at present there are sufficient water resources available to meet water demand. This statement however makes reference to the basin as a whole, and does not take into consideration water availability and water demand patterns at the Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

15 sub-catchment level, nor water quality aspects, which overall may limit actual water availability in time and space (i.e. river water in the coastal area of Merauke cannot be used for irrigation purposes during the dry season because of salinity intrusion from the sea shore). The Indonesian government is trying to push the development process of Papua through a number of programmes. A large initiative to accelerate economic growth in the EDB basin is the Merauke Integrated Food and Energy Estate (MIFEE). The initiative was officially launched in August 2010 and currently foresees the development of an area of about 1.2 million hectares for food and energy crops, among which oil palm and sugar cane would cover at least 50% of all allocated area for cultivation. Figure 2-3 Discussion with local authorities in Merauke during a field visit In view of the agro-business development envisaged in the MIFEE project, it is expected that sufficient availability of fresh water will determine the actual development potential in the area. Based on the model results and available information in terms of allocated area per type of crop, a comparison between water availability from river discharge and net crop water requirements based on local precipitation patterns has been computed for rice, oil palm and sugar cane. Results show that for the foreseen extent of agricultural land allocated to rice crops (40,000 ha), effective rainfall will not be sufficient to obtain more than one annual harvest. For cultivation of oil palm plantations (255,000 to 550,000 hectares) severe yield loss is expected in the absence of irrigation. Given the estimated plant water requirements and the location of the plantations, it appears that for 5 to 6 months in a year, precipitation in the Merauke area will not be enough to satisfy the oil palm water requirement. For an average precipitation year, it is expected that sugar cane will not require irrigation. Yet, should a dry year occur in which annual precipitation is 30% lower than the average value, sugarcane plantations would also require supplementary irrigation at the beginning of sowing (October), in the month of February, and in the last 2 months of the development crop stage (May and June). Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

16 400 Depandable precipitation (mm/month) Month P20th P 50th P80th Oil palm water req Figure 2-4 Comparison of dependable rainfall with water requirements for oil palm Overall, it can be concluded that the selected location for MIFEE in south Papua is not optimal due to the limited amount of rainfall in the area. This is expected to result in lower yields, especially for oil palm and rice, than can be expected for other areas in Indonesia. A multi-criteria analysis (MCA) has been performed within the IWRM study for the EDB basin to provide an example of an IWRM tool that can be used for the evaluation of different strategies. The scope of the MCA has been that of providing an example to show the impact that different use and management of the water resources can have on society as a whole, not only in economic terms, but also considering social, financial, technical and environmental aspects. From these considerations it can be concluded that, despite the physical availability of water resources at the basin scale, current and future land development in the catchment should carefully take into account the local availability of sufficient volumes of water at the time period where water demand is higher, also considering the water demand of other water users who rely on the same source for supply. These considerations should particularly be instructive for policy makers and private sector investors, who should carefully take into account the reduced availability of water in the southern areas of the catchment during the dry season, and the influence that this reduced availability might have on the long-term sustainability of the foreseen agro-business development project in the area. Workshop activities The data collection, development of tools and building of capacity for the EDB case study has been carried out jointly by staff of PusAir and Deltares during a number of field visits and workshops: Workshop on the use of global datasets for hydrometeorological analysis in areas with sparse data at BMKG training centre in Citeko, Bogor (13-17 February 2012), with 28 participants (3 from BMKG, 9 from PusAir, 16 from other (governmental) organizations) Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

17 with component C2 ( The workshop introduced the various global datasets available and through exercises practiced the processing of these datasets with QGIS. Furthermore, the participants were introduced to the open source distributed hydrological model WFLOW for which the processed global datasets ( based+distributed+hydrological+models) formed the input. Figure 2-5 Discussion during the first workshop in Citeko, Bogor Follow up workshop on global datasets and hydrological modelling at hotel Permata, Bogor (7-11 May 2012), with 24 participants (1 from BMKG, 6 from PusAir and 17 from other (governmental) organizations) with component C2. In this workshop hydrological models for 5 (sub)catchments were setup in WFLOW using global datasets prepared during the previous workshop. Specific products of this activity Report: Einlanden-Digul-Bikuma basin Case Study Report September 27, 2012 Powerpoint: IWRM WS Einlanden Digul Bikuma Jakarta, October 18, 2012 Workshop material February 2012 on Use of Global Datasets for hydrometeorological analysis in areas with sparse data o Powerpoints of presentations Workshop material 7-11 May 2012 of 2 nd session Use of Global Datasets for hydrometeorological analysis in areas with sparse data o Powerpoints of presentations o Report: Instruction Manual and exercises, May Setting up a Training-of-Trainers programme for Pola and Rencana development DG Water Resources of Ministry PU, ir. Moh. Hassan, has requested the Joint Cooperation Programme (JCP) to provide a Training-of-Trainers (ToT) in IWRM planning. This training should be based on the planning approach (Pola, Rencana) that is presently being followed in Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

18 Indonesia. This planning approach is still evolving and, where needed, can and will be adjusted based on the experiences with the first Pola s and Rencana s. Initially, only a ToT has been asked for. The idea was that a one-week ToT would be given by Netherlands experts to about 10 senior governmental officials, the trainers. This should be followed by a 2 week training provided by the trained seniors to one or more groups of governmental staff members and consultants involved in Pola and Rencana development. During discussions with various PU staff, a broader need for training was brought up, and options were identified. In order to make use of the experiences with developing the present generation of Pola s and Rencana s it was decided to organize an assessment workshop. This workshop was organized on 12 and 13 November 2012 in Bandung. The workshop aimed to bring forward the lessons learned from the first Pola s and Rencana s and possible ways to improve the current approach. In total about 40 people participated in and contributed to the workshop. The participants all had been involved in developing the present Pola s and Rencana s and came from DGWRD, various BWS/BBWS, provinces, academia and consultants. In addition some resource persons were invited with more general experience in IWRM planning in Indonesia. The conclusion of the workshop was that the implementation of the IWRM planning of the Pola and Rencana should be seen as a learning process. This workshop itself was a step in that learning process: the participants learned from each other s issues and they heard suggestions for improvements. Based on these lessons learned suggestions were made on improvements of the approach and process. An overview of the most important suggestions were the following: Focus the Pola on main strategic issues, incl. o move the selection of strategy to the end of the Pola process o include benefit and cost information of the main infrastructural measures in the Pola Adjust the Pedoman on Pola and draft Pedoman on Rencana o to reflect the above o to simplify the process o to describe the required minimum level of detail for information collection Provide analytical support for the preparation of Pola and Rencana (data, tools, etc.) Provide capacity building and training Specify the relation with plans of other sectors and the national objectives (top down from national to islands to basins) Based on the outcome of the workshop specific suggestions were made on needed training in IWRM Planning. First of all the conclusion was that training is needed at various levels. The following target groups for this training can be distinguished: senior trainer level (ToT) senior governmental level, involved in decision making about Pola s and Rencana s medior and senior governmental level, involved in the guidance of preparing the Pola s and Rencana s junior governmental staff and consultants, involved in the preparation of the Pola s and Rencana s Each group requires a separate training program. First outlines were made for four training programs. Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

19 Specific products of this activity Report: Assessment Workshop on Pola and Rencana development in Indonesia (Bandung November 2012) and Recommendations for Training 2.3 Supporting PusAir in establishing a WMO Regional Training Centre on Hydrology Within the Joint Cooperation Programme, Component B has also supported PusAir in the initial steps for the establishment of a World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Training Center on Hydrology (RTC-H) at the PusAir premises in Bandung. JCP has assisted in the strategic thinking about the regional hub role of both institutes and has contributed directly to the preparation of curricula and training materials. The background is that PusAir is already responsible for organizing and conducting national training in hydrology as a yearly program since The training program has focused mainly on surface water monitoring and water resources research activities. On the basis of this national experience and capabilities and a willingness to collaborate with other national and international institutions, Indonesia is now embarking on actions towards the establishment of a Regional Training Centre for Hydrology for the Southwest Pacific (RA V). The Centre will act as coordination and support hub for training, furthering education and capacity building as well as information networking activities on hydrology and water resources at national and international levels in the region. A strong link with WMO enables the Centre to disseminate and utilize the experience, knowledge and technologies represented by the international network of WMO. The RTC-H (Regional Training Centre for Hydrology) will be created with the aim to bridge the large gap between hydrologic scientific research and its applications as solutions to important social problems that involve water in particular with respect to River Basin Organizations (RBO). Moreover, by bringing together hydrologists from the various countries of RA V it is expected that the participants will stimulate each other with experiences and innovative ideas. In this way RTC-H might function as a platform for an exchange of knowledge, experience and development for the region in the field of hydrology. A series of teaching modules, SGM (Standard, Guidance, and Manual) prototype systems and demonstration projects offered by the RTC-H will enhance, inspire, and form the basis for successful hydrological and water resources management services that preserve natural resources, support economic interests, and save lives. The RTC-H will be a public non-profit organization to be operated under the Research Centre for Water Resources (RCWR, PusAir) of the Ministry of Public Works. The establishment of RTC-H is mainly a responsibility of PusAir. They will do this in close collaboration with BMKG which represents Indonesia in WMO. The Netherlands partners in JCP (KNMI and Deltares) may provide support to the establishment of RTC-H as well as to the actual training activities of RTC-H once it is officially established. Specific products of this activity Project Document / Proposal for WMO Regional Training Centre for Hydrology (RTC- H) for the Southwest Pacific (RA V), PusAir, December 2010 Document on Integration of the Joint Cooperation Program with the WMO RA5 Training Center for Hydrology, WMO, Deltares, May 2011 Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

20 2.4 Summary of outcome of activity PusAir has revived their role in supporting Pola and Rencana activities PusAir and BWS staff have been introduced to new data sources and assessment methods, especially suitable for areas with limited data The required update of the Pola for Einlanden-Digul-Bikuma basin has been supported by a hydrological analysis based on global data sets and an outline of an IWRM approach Experiences with present generation of IWRM plans are assessed, recommendations for improvement are made and suggestions for training (incl. ToT) has been provided to the Ministry of PU PusAir is established as a WMO regional training center on hydrology (RTC-H) Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

21 3 Jakarta Extreme Precipitation 3.1 PhD research on Jakarta Extreme Precipitation The activity Jakarta Extreme Precipitation is carried out under sub-component C1. The research is set-up as a PhD-project. The selection of the PhD student has taken a lot of time and for that reason the real activity could only start on 1 May The PhD student (Siswanto) was recruited from BMKG, and the schedule of expected activities and results produced included: an analysis of trends in observed (extreme) precipitation in the Jakarta area, bearing in mind the significance of this for flood forecasting and trends explaining the origin of the trends in precipitation extremes, in the context of climate change, urbanisation and other phenomena executing model simulations and scenario construction for the expected extreme precipitation in this area. The PhD programme will be continued after the finalization of this first JCP phase. At the end of the first phase the precipitation trend analysis has been completed and is presently being documented in a set of scientific publications. A wealth of high quality precipitation data has become available through the DiDaH digitization programme being executed. From this programme hourly precipitation data are available for the period between , and these data is complemented by operational observations obtained from BMKG for the recent period Two major results have become clear from analysis of these data. First, over the past century the total annual precipitation shows a reduction in the period prior to 1960 and an increase in the recent decades, but regarded over the entire century the rianfall does not show a strong trend. However, the fraction of rain that fall as extreme precipitation (>50 mm/day) does show a marked increase since the mid 60-ies (see Figure 3-1). This implies that more rain falls in heavy rainfall events, but the total rainfall is not changing markedly. Figure 3-1 Time evolution of the fraction of precipitation in 4 different intensity classes. As the intensity increases from 0.1 mm/day to >50 mm/day the fraction of rain falling in this class shows an increase over time. Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

22 An analysis of the mean diurnal cycle of the precipitation, shown in Figure 3-2, points at clear differences between the early 20 th century and the recent decade. During the monsoon season rainfall is related to northwesterly inflow of moist air, and this inflow does not show a strong variation during the day. In the most recent decade, however, a clear peak of precipitation is observed in the early morning hours. It is speculated that this may be related to an intensified land-breeze circulation in opposite direction of the mean monsoonal inflow, which may generate more moisture convergence and thus rainfall at the time of the highest land-breeze wind speed. This hypothesis needs to be verified in later studies. During the dry season, a clear late afternoon rainfall peak is related to local convection, generated by high surface temperatures. In the recent decade this peak is intensified and delayed with about two hours. This phenomenon is possibly related to the strong increase in urbanization, that may generate additional surface heating or affect the aerosol load of the atmosphere. Also this hypothesis needs to be verified. Figure 3-2 Mean diurnal cycle of rainfall for different time periods (all year round). During the recent decade (red line) the afternoon peak is shifted to later hours, and the morning peak is intensified. 3.2 Other activities The PhD research described above is carried out as part of the cooperation between KNMI and BMKG. Ultimately the PhD graduation will take place at the University of Utrecht. KNMI and BMKG have been cooperating for many years at various activities. At the start of JCP KNMI has expressed that for organizational reasons and for the time being they would keep the on-going activities between KNMI and BMKG outside JCP. At the other end KNMI realized that some of their cooperation activities have a strong relation with JCP and a good exchange of information on these activities was established between KNMI and JCP. This was in particular the case with the DiDaH project. Based on the successful cooperation in the first phase of JCP KNMI has decided to include also their other activities with BMKG in the next phase of JCP. Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

23 SACA&D / DiDaH During the course of the JCP the DiDaH project continued in full operation. Originally it was planned to conclude the DiDaH project early 2012, but it was decided to extend its duration to allow more time for implementation of the SACA&D historical data system, additional training of Indonesian staff, and prepare for extension to other South-East Asian countries, which is highly supported by WMO. These activities are formally not affiliated to the Joint Cooperation Programme but will be embedded in JCP if a second phase will be executed. Lectures and Visits A closing workshop of DiDaH in Citeko in April 2012 was combined with a kick-off workshop of the Extreme Precipitation project. Invited speakers from Indonesian universities and ministries, from universities in Australia and Singapore, and from Dutch institutes were exchanging information and experience on many hydro-climatological aspects relevant for West Java. Another activity in this flied was the participation of KNMI in a specific Climate Information course for BMKG that was given by the University of Twente. Guest lectures from KNMI staff were given at this course, including a work session on using web-based climate data explorers. Research Proposal on hydrometeorological information and food security In the context of a research call from NWO (Urbanizing Deltas in the World) a research proposal was developed aiming at improved usage of hydrometeorological and agricultural information for improving crop yield and food security. All JCP partners plus partners from Wageningen & Bogor University and ELEAF have formed a solid consortium. This research will be included in the next phase of JCP, also in case the application for NWO funding will not be successful. Results and Products The following reports and documents have been produced: Poster presentation Extreme precipitation trends in Jakarta by Siswanto, GL van Oldenborgh and B van den Hurk at the European Geophysical Union Conference in Vienna, april 2013 A draft version of a manuscript Extreme precipitation trends in Jakarta by Siswanto et al, to be submitted to the peer-reviewed Journal of Climatology Presentations at the kick-off workshop in Citeko by Siswanto, Prof. B van den Hurk and Dr GJ van Oldenborgh Guest lectures by A Kattenberg, Siswanto and B van den Hurk at the Climate Change training course of ITC-BMKG Article at KNMI website: Floods in Manila August 2012 by Siswanto, G.J. van Oldenborgh and G. Lenderink Presentation for Vietnam delegation visiting KNMI (nov 2012): Manila Floods and Extreme precipitation event by Siswanto. 3.3 Summary of outcome of activity Start of a PhD research, strengthening the academic quality of the activities of BMKG. KNMI to strengthen their involvement in JCP, extending their cooperation with other institutes in Indonesia. Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

24 Development of further research activities (PhD and applied) to be carried out by staff members of JCP partners Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

25 4 Water Management Datasets for River Basins PusAir, with BMKG, has a responsibility to support river basin and water management organizations throughout Indonesia through A) provision of data and B) capacity building. For this, they need to develop and disseminate information that is i) accurate, ii) up to date, iii) comprehensive and iv) available for all major river basins and lowland areas in Indonesia. Such data are generally not available for most areas in Indonesia, whereas the number and accuracy of useful global datasets has increased rapidly in recent years. Rather than just focussing on the collection of these datasets for specific river basins as was discussed during the Inception phase of the project, these datasets were also used for other support activities: (i) hydrological modelling to support PusAir in Pola and Rencana development (with component B) and (ii) application of datasets from Global Circulation Models (GCM) to support BMKG in answering questions on climate change impacts on Indonesia. This activity is carried out under component C Activities Global spatial datasets on surface elevation (SRTM-90), landcover (GlobCover), soils (Digital Soil Map of the World), potential evapotranspiration (CGIAR-PET) and precipitation (TRMM- 3B42RT) were collected for the whole of Indonesia and processed to 7 different catchments for use in hydrological modeling (together with Component B). Processing included change of data formats and resampling to a different spatial resolution. The satellite precipitation data were validated with observations from ground stations in 6 different areas in Indonesia which resulted in a joint publication in HESS (Vernimmen et al., 2012) (together with Component D1). Within the Delft-FEWS system a prototype of a hydrological database with map interface was setup (Figure 4-1). However, due to the changing focus of this component on hydrological modeling, rather than collection of hydrometeorological data this prototype was not brought further. In addition to the above mentioned spatial datasets, climatic scenario data from 7 GCMs were obtained from the IPCC website and processed for use in climate impact assessments. Processing of these climate datasets included downscaling and bias correction with a global baseline dataset (CRU-ERA40). The counterparts were trained in basic validation methods of rainfall, the processing of spatial datasets and the application of them in hydrological modeling through five 3-5 day different technical training sessions and workshops listed in next section during which other government organizations such as BIG (former Bakosurtanal), LAPAN and various Balai participated as well. These training days have not only helped increase the ability of the different counterparts to handle these often large datasets and obtain more hands on experience in application of these datasets, particularly important to support the development of Pola and Rencana which are vital in sustainable management of Indonesia s water resources. An additional advantage of these technical gatherings has been that staff from different organizations got acquainted with each other and worked closely together in mixed Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

26 groups on the various assignments. In our view this joint and mixed training has been a real advantage of the joint cooperation program. Figure 4-1 Prototype of hydrometeorological database with map interface as implemented in Delft-FEWS. By clicking on various map segments and hydrometeorological locations time series of observation data both in graphical and tabular format is displayed. General catchment info is also displayed. All of the datasets are now shared both offline (i.e. GCM scenario s) and online (real-time observed satellite precipitation) amongst partners and with other (end) users. Increased certainty on data availability allows an emphasis shift to the quality and consistency of the data in relation to their use. An example is the evaluation of TRMM satellite rainfall data for drought monitoring included in the DEWS/FEWS platform (see component D1). Furthermore, the trained skills obtained by BMKG staff during the training workshop on Climate Impact Assessment for Indonesia using GCM data and Delft-OMS, has already been used to further analyse IPCC scenario A2 (during the training scenario A1B was used) in support of the 'Buku Perubahan Iklim' and have already shared the gained knowledge with regional staff during a training. Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

27 Figure 4-2 Participants workshop on the use of global datasets for hydrometeorological analysis in areas with sparse data BMKG training centre in Citeko, Bogor (13-17 February 2012) 4.2 Deliverables and technical training / workshops For the first phase of the activity the deliverables from the project are as follows: 1. Joint publication (Deltares/BMKG): Vernimmen, R. R. E., Hooijer, A., Mamenun, Aldrian, E., and van Dijk, A. I. J. M.: Evaluation and bias correction of satellite rainfall data for drought monitoring in Indonesia, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, , doi: /hess , 2012 (with component D1) 2. Various nationwide datasets: i.e. bias-corrected real-time observed satellite precipitation, downscaled GCM scenario s 3. Delft-OMS system containing a database with bias-corrected and downscaled data from 7 GCMs in which Oldeman classifications and provincial precipitation climatologies for the future and current climate can be calculated. 4. (uncalibrated) hydrological models for EDB, Citarum, Bengawan Solo, Jratunseluna and Kali Garang (sub)catchments (with component B) Whereas the following has been provided to the counterparts during the various training sessions: 5. Capacity building and training in the collection, processing and application of spatial datasets for use in hydrological modeling and climate impact assessments for staff of PusAir, BMKG, Balai, BIG, ITB, LAPAN, PJT2 and UGM 6. Instruction manual and exercises on the Use of Global Datasets for Hydro- Meteorological Analysis in Areas with Sparse Data (with component B) 7. USB stick with global datasets and software (with component B) Technical training / workshops In the framework of this activity five technical training sessions / workshops were organized: Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

28 1. Technical training on Validation of TRMM satellite precipitation and ground stations at BMKG, Jakarta (29-31 March 2011), with 17 participants (6 from PusAir, 11 from BMKG). During this 3-day training the use of satellite precipitation data, basic rainfall validation methods and the use of validated ground station data in validating satellite precipitation data were discussed and practiced, and staff was introduced to the Delft- OMS software. Staff from PusAir and BMKG gave presentations on the use of satellite data as well as on drought indicators currently used by the organizations (with component D1; 2. Technical training in Use of Delft-OMS and setup of prototype implementation of hydrometeorological database and interface at PusAir, Bandung (28-29 July 2011), with 21 participants (10 from PusAir, 11 from BMKG). Training focused on setting up automatic generation of html reports containing hydrometeorological summary data for different river basins with Delft-OMS software; 3. Workshop on The use of global datasets for hydrometeorological analysis in areas with sparse data at BMKG training centre in Citeko, Bogor (13-17 February 2012), with 28 participants (3 from BMKG, 9 from PusAir, 16 from other (governmental) organizations) with component B ( The workshop introduced the various global datasets available and through exercises practiced the processing of these datasets with QGIS. Furthermore, the participants were introduced to the open source distributed hydrological model WFLOW ( OpenS/wflow+- +PCRaster-Python+based+distributed+hydrological+models) for which the processed global datasets formed the input; 4. Follow up workshop on Global datasets and hydrological modelling at hotel Permata, Bogor (7-11 May 2012), with 24 participants (1 from BMKG, 6 from PusAir and 17 from other (governmental) organizations) with component B. In this workshop hydrological models for 5 (sub)catchments were setup in WFLOW using global datasets prepared during the previous workshop; 5. Workshop on Climate Impact Assessment for Indonesia using GCM data and Delft- OMS, at BMKG, Jakarta (4-8 June 2012), with 11 participants from BMKG ( DAMPAK_IKLIM_MENGGUNAKAN_GCM_DATA_DAN_DELFT_OMS.bmkg); at the end of the workshop a presentation was given by BMKG participants to their management. 4.3 Recommended next steps Calibration and validation of hydrological models Now that the counterparts have gained experience and knowledge on the existence of available spatial datasets and application of those datasets in setting up and running a hydrological model for a river basin the logical next step would be to focus on the calibration and validation of the hydrological model. For this calibration and validation of the hydrological model, hydrometeorological observations are needed, which in itself need to be validated first. Only then, after proper validation, can the hydrological model be further used in impact assessments due to climate change but also under different land use and socio economic scenario s. Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

29 Further improvement of the hydrological modelling suit set up for the Citarum basin, including calibration and validation, has already started by an Indonesian student of the Erasmus- Mundi program, Ms. Tarasinta Perwitasari, who started in March 2013 at Deltares on a 6-mo internship for which supervision is paid by Deltares R&D funding. The improvement includes the interaction with water distribution and reservoir management of the Saguling-Cirata- Jatiluhur cascade reservoirs. Upon completion of the study, improvements to the modelling suit could be connected to the operational FEWS/DEWS system, which would also support PJT2 who are currently working on a decision support system for the reservoirs in the Citarum river basin. Generating baseline meteorological dataset for downscaling GCM scenario data In order for Indonesia to properly assess the impact of climate change on its water resources it is recommended that instead of using the ERA40-reanalysis dataset, which is expected to be based on only a limited amount of ground stations in Indonesia, that Indonesia generates its own baseline dataset using all available validated ground station data (including the Didah dataset). 4.4 Summary of outcome of activity PusAir and BMKG have developed capacity in the processing of global spatial datasets and applying those in setting up distributed hydrological models BMKG has developed capacity in methods of processing and statistical downscaling of GCM scenario's Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

30 5 Assessing Lowland / Peatland subsidence and future drainability Lowland/peatland subsidence is a crucial issue for Indonesia but receives insufficient attention. Some 5-15% of the countries land area is subsiding or will subside, and may eventually become undrainable and unproductive. This loss of productivity will happen very fast, in many areas within years after drainage (it is already observed in some areas, although the cause is rarely correctly identified), as biological oxidation is temperature dependent and therefore much higher in the tropics than in temperate climates. Indonesian policy makers are largely unaware of this threat, or choose to ignore it, so currently at least two priority policy targets aim to deforest and drain much of what remains of Indonesia s forested peatlands: i) promotion of industrial export crops (palm oil and pulp), and ii) the national food security policy. These policies will probably fail if they target peatlands, as agriculture on most of this land can not be made sustainable. The urgency of this issue has become clear to PusAir management in 2010/2011 as they started receiving requests for advice from policy makers in this area. As PusAir does not have the expertise, such advice can presently not be provided. That is why they asked Deltares / JCP to help PusAir develop capacity on this topic. As this request was formalized when JCP was already underway, the activities started about 6 months later than other activities. The activity, carried out as component C.3, has focused on supporting the internal PusAir activity Peatlands and Climate Change (funded by an Indonesian DIPA grant, ), which consisted largely of setting up an Experimental Field Station near Sei Ahas in Central Kalimantan. Staff of UGM, who have their own research programme on this topic, was also involved in most of the activities. 5.1 Activities In the first two workshops held in Bandung and Banjarmasin (26-28 July 2011, January 2012), the participants were introduced to the peatlands of Indonesia, their development and the impact of peatland drainage on carbon emissions, subsidence and flooding as well as some of the science behind these impacts. Peatland drainage was also put in the international context and examples were provided on the effect of drainage in areas all over the world, including the Netherlands and the Everglades in the US, and the implications for peatland water management. In between presentations, simple exercises were carried out to further help understand the presented material. Apart from the presentations given by the experts of Deltares, presentations were also given by representatives of Balai Rawa and other Indonesian organizations, presenting ideas on peatland water management and hydrological rehabilitation and discussing design and location criteria of hydrological intervention structures and dams. During these workshops, which were well visited by over 20 participants at each occasion, it became clear that due to the complexity of the subject, that in some ways is more scientific than technical, and for which few in PusAir have the background and training, it was more Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

31 useful to continue with hands-on technical trainings with less participants to really work on concrete examples. A total of two of these technical gatherings, with fewer participants but longer duration of 3-5 days, were held in both Jakarta and Banjarmasin, where the focus was on the Sei Ahas project area in Central Kalimantan (Figure 5-1), where PusAir (Balai Rawa) since 2011 with JCP support has set up a DIPA-funded peatland experimental research station on shallow peat with the main aim of demonstrating and studying water management options in shallow peat areas for agricultural purposes. The counterparts involved in these smaller technical trainings (staff from Balai Rawa Banjarmasin and a student from UGM), were trained in aspects of peatland carbon and subsidence modelling, not only the science behind it through reading of some selected scientific papers but also hands on application in spatial modelling using available raster calculation techniques in the free QGIS software package. Lokasi Studi Sei Ahas Figure 5-1 Sei Ahas, project area in Central Kalimantan. As a first step, a peat thickness map from available peat thickness measurement points in the project area was created. Peat thickness measurements collected by PusAir were extended with peat thickness measurement point available from other projects (e.g. KFCP). Before the map was created consistency checks between the different datasets were carried out. These checks revealed unreliable measurements which were discarded in the further map creation. In the map creation, various interpolation techniques were employed (kriging, inverse distance, manual) to understand the effect of the different techniques on the result (Figure 5-2). After the peat thickness map was created, this was combined with a high resolution LiDAR elevation map for the project to create a peat volume map which together with bulk density and carbon content was used to calculate the available total carbon stock. Particular attention was given to the different components of peat subsidence (oxidation, compaction, Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

32 consolidation and fire) and how these can be determined through analysis of bulk density samples throughout the peat profile. It was discussed that not all of the peat carbon stock is available for oxidation after drainage, and the amount which is available depends on the drainage limit. The concept of drainage limit was discussed (see Figure 5-3) and various drainage threshold definitions were used to demonstrate the effect on the amount of carbon available for oxidation. In addition, emission calculations were made under different scenario's, assuming a certain rise in canal water level after canal blocking and the effect this has on the reduction in subsidence rate and fire frequency in terms of carbon emission reduction. Peta elevasi Sei Raster Calculation Untuk Menghasilkan Peta Elevasi Dasar Gambut (Peta LIDAR dikurangi dengan Peta Kontur Kedalaman Data point shape File Interpolasi dari point shape file menjadi peta Peta elevasi dasar gambut Peta kontur kedalaman Figure 5-2 The different steps used to create a peat thickness map. Figure 5-3 The concept of drainage limit, not all available peat carbon is available for oxidation. Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

33 The carbon loss and emission calculations and the analysis thereof, were written down in a report in Bahasa Indonesia and the main findings were digested into a paper written in English, which will be presented by PusAir staff at the 4th International Seminar of HATHI, 6-8 September 2013, Yogyakarta. 5.2 Deliverables and technical training / workshops For the first phase of the activity the deliverables from the project are as follows: 1. The physical instruments, designs and monitoring activities at the Sei Ahas Experimental Station will last to at least 2014 and hopefully beyond, continuing generation of a valuable dataset and capacity building opportunities. 2. A report in Bahasa Indonesia was produced by PusAir, presenting the methods and results of calculations for the Sei Ahas Experimental Station areas of carbon stock, subsidence and carbon loss that were supported by JCP. 3. A design was produced for shiplocks that are suitable in peatland water management, allowing passage by small boats while keeping water levels high, for implementation in Presentations at the kolokium PusAir 2011 and World Delta Summit 2011 (Jakarta, November 2011) Whereas the following has been provided to the counterparts during the various training sessions: 5. Powerpoint presentations on peatland subsidence and modeling incl. exercises in Excel. Technical trainings/workshops In the framework of this activity four technical training sessions / workshops were organized: 1. First workshop on peatland subsidence and modeling at PusAir, Bandung (26-28 July 2011), with an introduction to the peatlands of Indonesia, their development and the impact of peatland drainage on carbon emissions, subsidence and flooding as well as some of the science behind these impacts. In between presentations, simple exercises were carried out to further help understand the presented material. 2. Second workshop on peatland subsidence and modeling at Balai Rawa, Banjarmasin (30-31 January 2012), with presentations on examples of international experience in peatland subsidence and research including recent findings in Indonesia as well as presentations on subsidence due to groundwater abstraction in Jakarta and subsidence monitoring work in the KFCP project area in Central Kalimantan. Apart from the presentations given by the experts of Deltares, presentations were also given by representatives of Balai Rawa and the KFCP water management expert, presenting ideas on peatland water management and hydrological rehabilitation and discussing design and location criteria of hydrological intervention structures and dams. 3. First technical training at PU, Jakarta (9-13 July 2012), where the 5 participants were working on the Sei Ahas peat thickness data, creating a peat map, calculating peat volume and available carbon stock. Calculation of carbon available for oxidation Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

34 assuming different drainage threshold levels. Calculate emission reduction under various rehabilitation scenario s. 4. Second technical training at Balai Rawa, Banjarmasin (8-11 October 2012). Continuation of the first technical training with a focus on emission modeling and on the possibilities of using bulk density samples from peat profiles to determine the various components of subsidence. 5.3 Recommended next steps The C3 activities started later than other JCP activities, by mid 2012 because the component was not originally planned but was added later at the explicit request of PusAir and PU management who feel they have insufficient capacity to perform the peatland-related research and planning duties that are expected from them. When starting up the C3 work, it was found that PusAir, including the Balai Rawa in Banjarmasin, indeed has no background and capacity in this area: the lowland management effort has traditionally been focussed on mineral areas even though these make up only one-third of Indonesia s lowlands and even though most lowland development in the last 20 years has been in peatland. A lack of interest in being involved in this new area of peatland issues at the workfloor level (as opposed to the management level), was one of the obstacles that had to be overcome in C3. As a result of this late start and very limited capacity base, the C3 work has focussed on training and assessments around the PusAir Experimental Station in Sei Ahas alone. Development of a nationwide lowland Digital Elevation Model, and subsequent modelling of the subsidence and flooding future scenarios for all of the lowlands of Indonesia, has not started in JCP as the PusAir capacity first needed to be boosted. Participation of PU and PusAir staff in QANS, where these large-scale activities were started, has been very limited. As involvement of both PU and PusAir in this topic is still critical to developing and enforcing sustainable strategies, as a counterweight to the agriculture organizations that now dominate the lowland agenda but do not have the required knowledge of water management and land subsidence, we propose to extend the C3 nationwide activities to the second phase of JCP. Apart from PU and PusAir, involvement of BIG (formerly Bakosurtanal, for the link with national map making), UGM (Gaja Madah University in Yogyakarta, for sustainable land management expertise and soil science), ITB (Institute for technology Bandung, for subsidence expertise), and possibly IPB (Bogor) would be required: rather than trying to generate capacity in all these areas in PusAir, it would be better to force and support better collaboration with existing knowledge centres, which is currently underdeveloped. Continuation of C3 may most effectively be done by linking up to the NORAD-funded SPPC (Sustainable Peatlands for People and Climate) programme that Deltares will be implementing with Wetlands International from mid 2013 to late SPPC will be picking up where QANS left off, expanding the scale and increasing the accuracy of peatland map improvements for which methods were developed in QANS, and starting the subsidence and flooding assessments that could not be started in QANS. These activities are ambitious and will take many years, and they can only be useful if Indonesian organizations are truly involved as has insufficiently been the case so far because of capacity-, financial- and political obstacles. Substantial capacity building over a longer period is required, and this is only possible through a longer-term capacity building programme like JCP. Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

35 5.4 Summary of outcome of activity PusAir has developed a Peatland Experimental Station in Central Kalimantan near Sei Ahas along the Kapuas River, funded by DIPA financing (Indonesian research funds) and supported by JCP through 4 workshops (6 to 25 participants, 1 to 5 days) and continuous cooperation in design, planning and communication. The larger workshops on peatland subsidence have proven helpful in terms of creating interest and increased awareness and knowledge of this problem which strengthens PusAir and PU in their roles towards the government in providing analysis and information. Specifically, Pusair has started working with PU in Jakarta and the Balai Besar for Kapuas river basin in Banjarmasin, on issues of sustainable peatland management.. Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

36 6 Drought Mapping and Drought Early Warning Indonesia is a tropical country, receiving abundant annual rainfall. In many areas, however, rainfall is highly seasonal, and sometimes erratic. These climatic characteristics are the main reason for the country having to cope with both serious droughts and floods. In many regions in Indonesia prolonged water deficits lasting several months occasionally cause failures of water supply systems and of rain fed and irrigated crops. These periods of drought frequently contribute to enhanced fire risk in forests and peatland areas. Improved monitoring and understanding of dry season rainfall patterns, in time and space, is therefore important for the country to be prepared for drought-related events such as water shortages, crop failures and fires. Until recently there was no comprehensive drought monitoring and forecasting system in Indonesia. Since the start of the JCP, the partners have been working hard together to set up such a system which is now successfully in operation since late Up to date drought frequency and severity maps are currently available which help create an understanding of distribution of drought vulnerabilities. The availability of these maps directly benefit many aspects of water and land management in Indonesia, among them drought preparedness and climate proofing of agricultural and water supply systems. The Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) provides drought monitoring on a national scale, using bias corrected TRMM 3B42RT precipitation using the method described in Vernimmen et al. (2012) and the CGIAR-CSI Global Potential Evapotranspiration dataset. The DEWS automatically generates drought maps on a daily to monthly basis and disseminates the data using the web ( where maps are available in both English and Bahasa Indonesia. For expert users, an operator client is available for further analysis of the data that is used for generation the drought maps. Next to national drought monitoring, the DEWS also performs derived analyses, like fire risk monitoring in peatlands. Ongoing activities include the incorporation of seasonal weather forecasts (ECMWF) in order to provide next to monitoring a national system with drought forecasting capabilities. The activity is carried out as Component D.1 of JCP. Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

37 Figure 6-1 Examples of monthly generated drought map. Top: monthly bias-corrected TRMM satellite precipitation total for February Bottom: Oldeman agroclimatic map based on bias-corrected TRMM satellite precipitation for February Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

38 6.1 Activities An important input to the DEWS are the real-time observations of precipitation by satellite. These observations as available in the TRMM 3B42RT data product were not taken at face value but rather were validated first with ground stations in 6 different areas in Indonesia (Figure 6-2 and Figure 6-3). This work is described in a joint publication in HESS with BMKG and CSIRO (Vernimmen et al., 2012). The experience gained by analysing satellite precipitation data and validation with ground station data, inspired Mrs. Mamenun from BMKG to use this work as a basis for her MSc thesis ('Pengembangan model penduga curah hujan bulanan menggunakan data satelit TRMM pada tiga pola hujan di Indonesia') in which she evaluated TRMM satellite precipitation data in additional areas having a different rainfall pattern (equatorial and local) compared to the published study which used data for areas having a monsoonal rainfall pattern. With this thesis, she graduated from IPB, early Figure 6-2 Validation regions for calibration of satellite precipitation data Figure 6-3 Calibration of the different regions Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

39 An important part in the development of the DEWS was further to get acquainted with the Delft-OMS software and to make the system operational within the IT infrastructure of both BMKG and PusAir. The counterparts were trained in basic validation methods of rainfall (together with Component C2) and the usage of Delft-OMS software in setting up the different components of the DEWS (and FEWS; together with component D2). Training was provided in both Indonesia as well as through a 3 week study tour in the Netherlands, see Appendix XX. During the various trainings, counterpart staff also gave presentations on relevant topics pertaining to the content of the training, for example on the different drought indicators used in Indonesia. Figure 6-4 Working on FEWS/DEWS configuration at Deltares (right) and visit to the Maeslantkering during the study tour to the Netherlands (left). The DEWS is operational since mid-2012 and publishes drought maps on a monthly basis on a BMKG webserver where maps are available in both English and Bahasa Indonesia: In addition to the publication on the web, the drought maps can also be viewed on a smartphone through an Android application developed by BMKG (Figure 6-5). Drought maps are not only showing the monthly observed rainfall but also show drought indicators as derived from the rainfall such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The Oldeman agroclimatic map is produced as well. The validation work of the satellite precipitation data and the development of the DEWS has been presented at numerous national and international workshops 1 by both Deltares as well as BMKG staff, whereas the Delft-OMS software and DEWS/FEWS application was introduced to regional BMKG staff during the annual BMKG technical training in climate change. The development of the DEWS/FEWS system has not only improved cooperation between different government organizations involved but also within BMKG the possibilities of the 1 (i) kolokium PusAir 2011 (Bandung), (ii) World Delta Summit 2011 (Jakarta, November 2011), (iii) Didah workshop 2012 (Citeko; see also component C1) and (iv)cordex International Workshop 2012 (Korea) Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

40 Delft-OMS software generated interest in the possibilities of automating processes which require several manual steps before (drought) maps can be published on the website. One of those automation steps is the generation of the SPI drought map using ground observations. As part of ongoing activities these are now being implemented by BMKG staff with support from Deltares. Other ongoing activities include the support and maintenance of the DEWS/FEWS system by Deltares staff. Figure 6-5 Some screenshots of the Android application developed by BMKG, in this example the bias-corrected precipitation total for January 2013 is shown. Note: This map is also showed on the BMKG webserver: Deliverables and technical training / workshops For the first phase of this activity the deliverables resulting from the project are as follows: 1. Joint publication (Deltares/BMKG): Vernimmen, R. R. E., Hooijer, A., Mamenun, Aldrian, E., and van Dijk, A. I. J. M.: Evaluation and bias correction of satellite rainfall data for drought monitoring in Indonesia, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, , doi: /hess , 2012 (with component C2) 2. An operational FEWS/DEWS running at servers of PusAir and BMKG (with component D2) 3. A memo describing the necessary hardware for the application nationwide Delft-OMS for FEWS/DEWS (with component D2) 4. various presentations and abstracts submitted to workshops and conferences 5. Guest lecture by R Vernimmen ( Introduction to DEWS/FEWS ) at the annual BMKG technical training in climate change, Cipayung, 16 February 2012 Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

41 Whereas the following has been provided to the counterparts during the various training sessions: 6. Capacity building and training in the validation of satellite precipitation data, and use of Delft-OMS software for PusAir, BMKG, Balai and PU staff 7. Training material for setup of FEWS/DEWS system using Delft-OMS software 8. USB stick with training material, presentations and software for study tour in the Netherlands Technical training / workshops In the framework of this activity eight technical training sessions / workshops were organized: 1. Technical training on Validation of TRMM satellite precipitation and ground stations at BMKG, Jakarta (29-31 March 2011), with 17 participants (6 from PusAir, 11 from BMKG). During this 3-day training the use of satellite precipitation data, basic rainfall validation methods and the use of validated ground station data in validating satellite precipitation data were discussed and practiced, and staff was introduced to the Delft- OMS software. Staff from PusAir and BMKG gave presentations on the use of satellite data as well as on drought indicators currently used by the organizations (with component C2); 2. Technical training on SPI and drought mapping at PusAir, Bandung (11-13 May 2011), with 12 participants (8 from PusAir, 4 from BMKG). Focus of this training was on the calculation of the Standard Precipitation Index (a drought indicator) as well as further drought mapping using the agroclimatic maps of Oldeman as an example. Further training was provided in the use of the Delft-OMS software; 3. Technical training on use of PCRaster, NetCDF and grib at BMKG, Jakarta (1-4 August 2011), with 21 participants (10 from PusAir, 11 from BMKG). During the training participants learned to work with PCRaster software and apply this GIS package in generating drought maps. Further training was provided in the use of Delft-OMS software and importing datasets in NetCDF and grib data formats with the software 4. Study tour to the Netherlands (3 23 October 2011), with 8 participants (4 from PusAir and 4 from BMKG) (with component D1). During this study tour the participants received an advanced course in the use of Delft-OMS and immediately applied this in the development of the DEWS/FEWS system, in addition during the study tour various presentations on other operational FEWS/DEWS systems were given and several excursions to important Dutch waterworks were organized. 5. Administrator training for flood and drought early warning system at PusAir, Bandung (9-10 January 2012), with 4 participants (2 from PusAir and 2 from BMKG) (with component D1). 6. On-the-job training Fews/Dews at hotel Permata, Bogor (16-20 January 2012), with 15 participants (5 from PusAir, 5 from BMKG and 5 from other governmental organizations) (with component D1) ( program-open-source-flood-and-drougnt-early-warning-system-bogor januari ). Participants continued with the development of the DEWS/FEWS system; 7. On-the-job training Fews/Dews at hotel Permata, Bogor (26-30 March 2012), with 14 participants (6 from PusAir, 6 from BMKG and 2 from other governmental organizations) Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

42 (with component D1) ( Participants continued with the development of the DEWS/FEWS system; 8. Administrator training for flood and drought early warning system, at BMKG, Jakarta (5-7 June 2012), with 9 participants (5 from BMKG and 4 from PusAir) ( _Pusat/Sestama/Humas/WORKSHOP_PENGKAJIAN_DAMPAK_IKLIM_MENGGUNAK AN_GCM_DATA_DAN_DELFT_OMS.bmkg). Training on maintenance and trouble shooting of Fews/Dews servers. 6.3 Recommended next steps Although already a considerable effort has been put in training the various counterpart staff in the use and application of Delft-OMS software it will require more training to ensure that the gained knowledge reaches a level at which it is not lost when not practiced for a longer period. Part of this additional training should include the dissemination of results to the webserver. During phase I of the JCP there was not enough time to train the counterpart staff in applying the dissemination possibilities. If no continued support is found and secured it is feared that the gained knowledge will soon be lost and that the operation of the DEWS/FEWS system can no longer be maintained. The following recommended next steps in itself also serve the additional required training as identified above. Extend the DEWS with drought forecasting capabilities The DEWS is currently monitoring drought conditions as observed by satellites. A logical next step would be to further develop the DEWS and extend it with drought forecasting capabilities. This could be done by incorporating seasonal weather forecasts (for example from ECMWF which BMKG has recently purchased) or by applying a statistical approach (ARIMA) to the historical timeseries of the satellite precipitation used in the monitoring (available since year 2000). The latter method is already piloted by a researcher from BMKG but has yet to be tested further in an operational setting. For both methods it will be necessary to assess the skill of the forecasts to create support and confidence in the forecasts. Peat fire risk early warning system BMKG has a role in disseminating daily fire risk in Indonesia. Of particular interest here are the peatlands in Indonesia where fires have a huge impact both on the local, national, regional and international scale as is evident by the recent fires in Riau. BMKG runs a national fire danger rating system for all of its land which is based on a Canadian fire danger rating system and heavily depends on temperature. This system is not suitable for fire risk warning in tropical peatlands where it is always hot and temperature is therefore not a discerning variable. We think it is better to run a separate Fire Risk Early Warning System for the peatlands of Indonesia based on a hydrological indicator and taking into account the current landcover and drainage conditions of the peatlands knowing that intact peat swamp forests do not burn and the more a peatland is drained the greater the risk of having deeper groundwater levels resulting in a greater the risk of fire occurrence and risk of prolonged Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

43 uncontrolled burning. As a pilot using R&D funding, Deltares has previously developed a daily water budget model for degraded peatlands using satellite precipitation data, validated this with a project site in Central Kalimantan and correlated this with observed hotspot data from the MODIS satellites. The results of this research looked very promising and are worth exploring further now that through various peatland projects we have obtained much more measurements in different climatic regions of Indonesia to further test and refine the water budget model. It seems only logical to implement this in the DEWS since it makes use of the same satellite precipitation data and has good dissemination capabilities. Agricultural crop yield forecast system One of the important issues on the policy agenda of Indonesia now and in the years to come is food security. In order for Indonesia to better prepare and secure food production during weather extremes, not only now but also in the future under varying climate and socioeconomic conditions it will be worthwhile to have an operational system which can predict crop yield based on prevailing weather conditions. Knowing the weather conditions in the months to come can help farmers to determine the best time to start planting their crops or decide if given the predicted weather to plant a different crop which requires less water. A proposal to this effect has been submitted during the Dutch NWO call Urbanizing Deltas early 2013 (INDOFOOD proposal) but unfortunately was not found suitable enough within the call for a full proposal to be submitted. All participating partners (BMKG, Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture, Bogor University, KNMI, Alterra/WUR, eleaf and Deltares) still like to pursue the possibility to implement the ideas put forward in the proposal and implement this within the DEWS. 6.4 Summary of outcome of activity A joint publication on the evaluation and bias correction of satellite rainfall data for drought monitoring in Indonesia, which formed the basis of the current DEWS An operational nation wide Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) is currently running on servers of both BMKG and PusAir The DEWS disseminates monthly drought frequency and severity maps on the web ( BMKG and PusAir have developed capacity in the use of Delft-OMS software Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

44 7 Flood Forecasting and Operational Management Floods represent a major hazard in Indonesia and regularly cause loss of life and property. Flood protection infrastructure and spatial planning can in principle largely mitigate flooding but there is always a residual risk of flooding. Non-structural measures like flood warning and management can help society to cope with the remaining risk. Flood forecasting can improve flood warning and management services by providing more accurate and timely information. This component D.2 of the JCP focussed on capacity development in the field of flood forecasting and warning at BMKG and PusAir. Many activities have an overlap with Component D1: Drought Mapping and Drought Early Warning. This component consisted on parallel tracks of formal training and pilot application development. As a pilot the Jakarta water system was chosen. The water system of Jakarta is very complex and development of a flood early warning system for Jakarta would be the best proof to other locations in Indonesia, that it can be done: When Jakarta can do it, everybody can do it. The floods in Jakarta can be caused by high sea levels, local rains, but also by floods of the several rivers crossing the urban area of Jakarta. The high economic value of this metropolis make that floods can cause incredible damage. Until recently there was no comprehensive flood forecasting system in Jakarta. Since the start of the JCP, the partners have been working hard together to set up such a system which is now successfully in operation since late An important component of the Flood Early Warning System is the data collection module. Its main function is collecting and processing data from international, national and regional sources. Amongst others, it collects forecasts from global numeric weather forecasting systems, data from national precipitation radar systems and the meteorological network. On a regional scale, data from telemetry networks are being collected and processed. Processing involves data validation and optimized data storage preprocessing for further application. One important feature of the Flood Early Warning System is that data from many separated data sources is now being collected into single system, which allows data processing activities like data comparison, ensemble forecasting, secondary validation etc. The data are visible for all organizations that contribute data the Flood Early Warning system. The collected data is being used as input for linked hydrologic-hydrodynamic models, which generate discharge and water level forecasts in the whole Jakarta basin. A numerical coastal model calculates weather-driven water level offset along the coast, which in combination with astronomical tide results in a sea level forecast for Jakarta. With the forecasts from the models the river managers can see a possible flood approaching and take mitigating and preventing measures in advance. Figure 7-1 Floods in the city of Jakarta This activity has resulted in an operation Flood Forecasting System, being hosted both at PusAir and BMKG. Unique to the application is that data from many organisations is being collected. The Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

45 Delft Hydraulic s VEB-0047 July 25, 2013 process of setting up the data collection system resulted in improved cooperation between water management organisations and other related institutes. During the JCP project both PusAir and BMKG have improved their profile as the national institute on the area of flood forecasting. 7.1 Activities One of the main JCP components is the combined development and preparation of a National Water Information System (see Figure 7-3). The system is based on the Delft Fews system (developed since 1993 and currently used around the world in over 25 countries). The Fews system is an open system and free of charge. Important parts of the system are the drought and flood components. Setting-up and formulating a flood early warning system requires the contribution of many local and national agencies is required, and thus forms an excellent part of the JCP. As can been seen from the layout, the cooperation of BMKG, PusAir, BPPT, Bakosurtanal with local Balai and Dinas is required to set-up the basis. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Models Rainfall radar (0-3 hours) Meteorological data 0-3 hours 12 hours 1-3 days 7 days historic, re-analysis Seawater level River monitoring stations Tidal gates Seawater level prediction South China Sea Model Animation of tide in South South China Sea Model (SCSM) China Sea Deltares ( ) BMKG-BPPT FEWS, Flood Early Warning BMKG Bakosurtanal - PU DKI BBCilCis PusAir PusAir PU WRDC Figure 7-2 Floods in the city of Jakarta For the flood component Jakarta (including the upper catchment) and the Upper Citarum basin served as pilot areas. In December 2012 the Jakarta Flow Early Warning System (JFEWS) was implemented for testing at the flood control rooms of both BBCilCis and DPU Jakarta, the disaster control rooms of both the National (BNPB) and DKI (BPBD) disaster centres and also at the weather forecasting room of BMKG. JFEWS provided wide support to all organizations during the severe flooding during January and February Further formal implementation of JFEWS is under preparation and is scheduled for the second half of JFEWS forms the basis for the further development of FEWS system in other basins, like for example the Citarum basin. The outline for the Flood Early Warning System for the Citarum has also been prepared and is ready to be implemented. Available data feeds from PusAir, BMKG, Bakosurtanal, BPPT have already been added to the system. More data feeds from BBWSC, PLN, PJT2 and BMKG have been prepared, but not yet connected. Also the historic hydrologic database Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

46 developed by package C for the upper Citarum basin (which was also provided to and implemented by package D) will be further extended and upgraded. BMKG Figure 7-3 National Water Information System under development by JCP The preparation of the Flood Early Warning pilot for Jakarta included the following activities: 1. Data collection from telemetry networks in Jakarta basin: a. Data collection of PU-DKI telemetry network: for several main locations real-time water level data is collected. b. Data collection of manual gauge readings of PU-DKI monitoring network: hourly readings are collected both directly from Piket, but also from the PU-DKI website. c. Data collection of the PusAir telemetry network. d. Data collection of the BBWS Cilcis telemetry network. e. Data collection from the BPPT operated precipitation radar station: this data feed provides a real-time overview of heavy precipitation in Jakarta. f. Data collection from the Bakosurtanal water level sensor network. g. Data collection from the Automatic Weather System network of BMKG. All automatic water level measurements in one system Water level measurements from different telemetry systems on one location, with the warning levels used by PU-DKI. Figure 7-4 Data collection from telemetry networks Jakarta basin Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

47 2. Data collection of numerical weather forecast systems: a. Collection of ECMWF medium range weather forecast for Indonesia b. Collection of ACCESS-T (Australian Bureau of Meteorology) short range weather forecast for Indonesia c. Collection of ACCESS-A (Australian Bureau of Meteorology) short range weather forecast for Indonesia d. Collection of GFS (National Weather Service, USA) medium range weather forecast for Indonesia e. Collection of CCAM (BMKG) short range precipitation forecast for Jakarta 3. Connection of hydrodynamic models for flood forecasting: a. SOBEK rainfall-runoff model coupled with a hydrodynamic model of Jakarta basin for riverine flood forecasting b. Delft3D numerical flow model of the South China Sea for storm surge forecasting. Storm surge forecast for the South China Sea. In When bank levels are crossed in the 1D hydrodynamic combination with astronomic tide at Jakarta this results in model, the 2D hydrodynamic models calculates forecasted coastal flood forecast for Jakarta flood maps. Figure 7-5 Hydrodynamic modelling in Flood forecasting 1. Presentations at colloquia and congresses: a. Workshop at the World Delta Summit 2011: New developments in serviceoriented architecture for flood management. November 23, Jakarta. b. Presentation at the PusAir Colloquium: Launch of the FEWS/DEWS System. May 5, 2012 c. PusAir Exhibition during PusAir Colloquium. May 5, Flood Warning dissemination: data collected and forecasts generated by the Flood Early Warning system are disseminated using webtechnology. An android app (Banjir Online) was developed for use on smartphones. Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

48 7.2 Deliverables, training and workshops One of the main components is the combined development of a National Water Information System (see Figure 7-3). The system is based on the Delft Fews system (developed since 1993 and currently used around the world in over 25 countries). The Fews system is an open system and free of charge. The JCP Water Information System is online for testing since September 2011 through servers at BMKG and PusAir. The first version of the system was launched on May 3, 2012 during the Kollokium of PusAir. In June 2012, BMKG and PU formally accepted the system and decided that over-time the system should develop towards the National Weather, Water and Climate Information Services System. Hereto, the system will bring together the historic data (back to 1869), the operational data, the weather, flood and drought forecasting, the online monitoring, the relevant satellite feeds, the short and long-term weather forecast, the relevant marine monitoring and modelling and the Climate change and 'future weather. PU already with the preparation to implement the system on Java, hereto all management basins (WS) on Java started with the improvement of the data collection systems (telemetry) which will be connected to the system. Main achievements: 1. Development and implementation of the Jakarta Flood Early Warning System as a first pilot for Indonesia. 2. Development of Android application for smartphones (Banjir Online) allowing the user to see maps, charts and animated images on flood conditions exported by the operational FEWS/DEWS system. 3. Four large (3-5 days; participants) on-the-job training/workshops were organized in Indonesia to help increase the ability of PusAir and BMKG staff to setup and work with the FEWS/DEWS system, plus a 3-week collaborative workshop for 8 Indonesian participants in the Netherlands (with component D2); 4. Two (2-3 days; 4-9 participants) administrator trainings for the FEWS/DEWS system (with component D2); 5. Presentations on the joint publication and FEWS/DEWS system at various workshops and conferences (kolokium PusAir 2011 (Bandung), World Delta Summit 2011 (Jakarta, November 2011) 6. Official launch of operational FEWS/DEWS servers at annual PusAir kolokkium 2-3 May 2012 (with component D2). Figure 7-6 Explaining the FEWS/DEWS system to Public Works Deputy Minister Achmad Hermanto Dardak by PusAir employees. Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

49 Real-time imported radar directly gives an indication where precipitation-initiated flood can occur. Figure 7-7 Real-time imported radar images The directly monitored extreme precipitation upstream of Katulampa increases the lead-time for flood warning by four hours. The WDMS collects data from the AWS system which can be easily be viewed and analysed in the user interface. Figure 7-8 Views of data and forecasts Imported forecasts can be viewed and animated in the spatial display. In the framework of this component the following key training components were delivered: 1. Study tour to the Netherlands (3 23 October 2011), with 8 participants (4 from PusAir and 4 from BMKG) (with component D1). During this study tour the participants received an advanced course in the use of Delft-OMS and immediately applied this in the development of the DEWS/FEWS system, in addition during the study tour various presentations on other operational FEWS/DEWS systems were given and several excursions to important Dutch waterworks were organized. Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

50 2. Administrator training for flood and drought early warning system at PusAir, Bandung (9-10 January 2012), with 4 participants (2 from PusAir and 2 from BMKG) (with component D1). 3. On-the-job training Fews/Dews at hotel Permata, Bogor (16-20 January 2012), with 15 participants (5 from PusAir, 5 from BMKG and 5 from other governmental organizations) (with component D1) ( program-open-source-flood-and-drougnt-early-warning-system-bogor januari ). Participants continued with the development of the DEWS/FEWS system; 4. On-the-job training Fews/Dews at hotel Permata, Bogor (26-30 March 2012), with 14 participants (6 from PusAir, 6 from BMKG and 2 from other governmental organizations) (with component D1) ( Participants continued with the development of the DEWS/FEWS system; 5. Administrator training for flood and drought early warning system, at BMKG, Jakarta (5-7 June 2012), with 9 participants (5 from BMKG and 4 from PusAir) ( MPAK_IKLIM_MENGGUNAKAN_GCM_DATA_DAN_DELFT_OMS.bmkg). Training on maintenance and trouble shooting of Fews/Dews servers. Figure 7-9 On the job training course with PusAir and BMKG employees Figure 7-10 J-FEWS client in the BMGK Control Room Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

51 7.3 Indirect spin-off of activities and on-going activities The implementation of the pilot offered the perfect basis for a follow-up project: Flood Management Information System (FMIS). In this project a flood management and forecasting system for Jakarta had to be setup and hydrological model analyses were performed. The existing pilot system, gained experience and contacts were the perfect starting point to further develop flood warning for Jakarta. The project was carried out in October, November and December of Application of the Flood Forecasting System One of the unique characteristics of the Flood Forecasting System is that it collects relevant data from multiple organisations, active in water management in Jakarta, or providing weather forecasts. This data, which proved to be incredibly useful during flood situations, was previously unreachable for the disaster management authorities. During the latest floods, which were almost as severe as the 2007 floods, the disaster management organisations heavily relied on the Flood Early Warning System for up-todate information. This application actually proved that the system outgrew the status of pilot system. BMKG and PusAir, in conjunction with Deltares and KNMI were seen as the experts on the subject. Besides the implementation of the first version of JFEWS also the Standard Operation Procedures (SOP s) of all organizations have been evaluated and suggestions have been formulated to adjust the SOP s to allow formal commissioning, ownership and use of JFEWS. The following steps are required to make formal use and implementation possible before the next flood season : Wet season o Testing and tailoring of FMIS / JFEWS April September 2013: o Completion, formalization and legalization of SOP s o Commissioning of FMIS / JFEWS Wet season o Jakarta flood operation with FMIS / JFEWS Jakarta Floods 2013 During 15 till 18 January 2013 Jakarta and Bogor areas experienced heavy rain leading to several high river waves entering and flowing through Jakarta. On January 17 one of the river banks of the Western Flood Channel (Banjir Kanal Barat, BKB) could not withstand the permanent high water levels and collapsed over a length of 76 meter. As a result for about a day water from BKB entered the city with a rate of about 100 m 3 /s. At the same time heavy Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March

52 rains (over 150 mm/day) pounded the city and this combination resulted in very heavy flooding in the Thamrin, Menteng, Pluit areas of Jakarta. The heavy rainstorm also caused overflowing of the Angke and Pesanggrahan river causing considerable flooding in the north western parts of the city. To a lesser extent also the north eastern areas experienced flooding due to local rainfall. No flooding appeared in the south eastern areas where the rain waters were safely transported to the sea through the new Eastern Flood Channel (Banjir Kanal Timur, BKT). On the 19 th of January most of the floods in the central parts of Jakarta already receded, but many Northern areas remained flooded for several days. Especially the Pluit area was severely affected by the floods and remained flooded for over 10 days. The Royal Netherlands Embassy (RNE) and the Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment (Min I&E) of the Netherlands stayed in close contact with the Indonesian Ministry of Public Works (PU) to see if the extensive Dutch knowledge of the water system of Jakarta could be mobilized to assist Jakarta during the flood operations and with the aftermath of the floods. Already on January 18 the Government of Indonesia (GOI) and the Government of the Netherlands (GON) agreed on cooperation to assist Jakarta. Deltares and HKV were invited to identify with the experts of the Ministry of PU the principal elements of this assistance for both the short-term (till the end of the current flood season, March 2013) and the longer term. The assistance started on January 21, For the short-term three areas of assistance were identified to assist both National and Provincial (Jakarta) governments with the flood aftermath and prepare for urgent measures and operation during the remaining of the flood season: - evaluate what happened and identify new lessons learnt - assist with the identification of additional urgent flood measures - assist, maintain and improve critical parts of the Jakarta Flood Early Warning System (JFEWS) for both National and Provincial: o Flood operation and management o Disaster centres 7.4 Future developments towards the National System Over-time the system should develop towards the National Weather, Water and Climate Information Services System. Hereto, the system will bring together the historic data (back to 1869), the operational data, the weather, flood and drought forecasting, the online monitoring, the relevant satellite feeds, the short and long-term weather forecast, the relevant marine monitoring and modelling and the Climate change and 'future weather. PU already started with the preparation to implement the system on Java, hereto all management basins (WS) on Java started with the improvement of the data collection systems (telemetry) which will be connected to the system. Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 March