BMKG. Badai Tropis DURGA. Badai Tropis ROSIE

Transcription

1 Kuala Lumpur, April

2 Outline of the Presentation New Institutions dealing with Climate Change Strategy in linking up national and international policies on Climate Change BMKG activities to support national Action Plan on Adaptation and Mitigation for Energy sector Climate information for energy and water resource sectors How Climate information contribute to the planning and operational stage of Energy sector 2

3 NEW INSTITUTIONS DEALING WITH CLIMATE CHANGE Minstr Responsible for Cl. Change Issues New Zealand Dec Minstr of Transport Infrastructure and Cl. Change Scotland May 2007 Minstr of Cl. Change and Water Australia Dec Secr of State for Energy and Cl. Change United Kingdom Jan Minstr Climate and Energy Belgium March 2008 Minstr for Climate and Energy Denmark Sept Minstr of Meteorological Services and Cl. Change Niue 2008 The Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG) Indonesia Nov

4 Water DNPI M of Env &Sector NAP for A&M SECTORIAL PROG/DEP. Agriculture Transportation Energy Forestry Infrastructure Health Coastal Area Infrastructure Fishery BMKG STRATEGY IN LINGKING UP NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL POLICIES ON CLIMATE CHANGE 2 nd WCC (1990) UNFCCC (Policy) COP Convension on CC SBI Implementation Capacity bldg Education/ Training Public Awereness Cooperation & synergy etc. WMO (BMKG) COP 13/CMP 3 (Bali, Dec 2007) SBSTA (S&T) Data, Systematic Observation, Monitoring Vulnerability, Adaptation - assessment UNEP (M of Env) MOP Emision Reduction CO 2- NO 2 -NO x -O 3 -etc INPUT 1 st WCC-1 (1979) IPCC(Scientific) RESOLUTION Kyoto Protocol (1997) Nairobi Work Program (2006) Bali Action Plan (2007) Copenhagen (2009) SBI: Subsidiary Body for Implementation SBSTA: Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice MOP: Meeting of the Parties CMP: COP+MOP DNPI : National Council on Climate Change WCC-3 (2009) (...?) Physical Science Basis Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability Mitigation of CC AR st IPCC, Bali, Oct 2009 AR National International 4

5 BMKG Activities to support National Action Plan on Adaptation and Mitigation Climate Change Severe Impact for ENERGY sector National Action Plan/ Mitigation Adaptation of Climate Change (Ministry of Environment) Renewable energy utilization (wind, solar) IPCC (AR IV) & WMO Cost reduction for transmission and distribution infra structure Underground cabelling for public usage Energy efficiency, renewable energy resources Reduce dependency to single energy source Utilization of wind and solar potency Design stage Operational stage BMKG in Cooperation with Concerned-University & institutions Provide related weather information (wind, cloud cover, insulation, solar radiation) Provide climate information (wind direction and magnitude, solar radiation, rainfall) related to alternative energy resources Natural hazard risk area information due to extreme local weather such as tornado, high intensity rainfall. Natural hazard risk area information due to extreme climate such as low or high rainfall and increase temperature. Information of daylight lenght Thematic map of direct solar intensity frequency Thematic map of solar inclination Earthquake and tsunami risk map Thunder risk map Universities (IPB, ITB, UI, UGM) 5

6 BMKG Activities to support National Action Plan on Adaptation and Mitigation Climate Change Severe Impact for WATER RESOURCE sector National Action Plan/ Mitigation Adaptation of Climate Change (Ministry of Environment) Water harvest extensification Water and land storage and conservation techniques BMKG in Cooperation with Concerned-University & institutions Online Rainfall data from Min. of Public Work Rainfall information (monthly rainfall and evaluation, monthly or annual average rainfall) Efficiency of water usage and irrigation Dam operational management improvement Daily and monthly temperature and moisture information Water recycle, Sea water processing. IPCC (AR IV) & WMO Rainy season Information (evaluation) Dry season information (evaluation) Soil water availability (for crops) Flood risk potency forecast, 3 months ahead Earthquake and tsunami risk maps Universities (IPB, ITB, UI, UGM) 6

7 CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR ENERGY AND WATER RESOURCE SECTORS BMKG Pre Int Workshop Identification of sub topics Mechanism Points of Recommendation International Workshop Climate Information Services In supporting mitigation and adaptation to climate change in energy and water sectors (Maret 2009) National experts & JICA, DMI, Deltares, IRI, the University of NEWCASTLE Australia Lecturer Scientist Moderator B Energy Sector : Rainfall Debit Rainfall Model run of Inflow Prediction Recommendations: 1. Compilation of climate data and climatic trend for the last 10 years, for updating the annual operational pattern of hydropower water usages and adapting to future climate scenarios. 2. Data provision (Spatial interpolation) and climate information (high resolution), inflow data from dams and reservoirs of hydropower. 3. Model development to predict water inflow based on information of climate prediction to better focus on hydropower operational pattern. 4. Etc Water Resources Sector: water availability, Water balance, rainfall scenario; 10 years Recommendations: 1. Spatial and temporal assessment of climate trend of 30 years with the annual pattern changes, including the interannual up to the inter decadal variability. 2. Develop climate modeling for Indonesian region and modeling impact of CC to hydrology at local scale. Coupled climate and hydrological model simulation to reduce uncertainty and capture to more surface information details. 3. Setting up an institutional system and make use of the climate information for cropping calendar and mapping surface water availability for the next 10 years. 4. etc. D Concrete to project Apr Dec 09 Climate Information for Hydropower Performance Optimalization Guideline for optimalization of hydropower operational Stake Holder Department of Public Work Department of Agriculture Department of Energy Temporal spatial map of Water Availability Concrete to project Apr Dec 09 Climate Information for Identification of Water Availability 7 A

8 HOW CLIMATE INFORMATION CONTRIBUTE TO THE PLANNING AND OPERATIONAL STAGE OF ENERGY SECTOR HYDROPOWER ACTIVITIES Planning Operational Contribution of Nat Met Service PLANNING STAGES OPERATIONAL STAGES TOPOGRAPHY OBSERVED DISCHARGE INFLOW TO RESERVOIR TARGET OUTFLOW DETERMINE HEAD & CURVE EL-VOL-AR AVAILABLE > 10 YR YES NO CLIMATE & RAINFALL DATA DISCHARGE (DAILY/ MONTHLY) RAINFALL & CLIMATE(DAILY /MONTHLY) HYDRO POWER DMI IRRIGA TION HOURLY DISCHARGE DATA FREQUENCY ANALYSIS DAILY/MONTHLY DISCHARGE DATA DURATION CURVE MODEL SELECTION RAINFALL-RUNOF CALIBRATION& VERIFICATION INFLOW TO RESERVOIR - WET YEAR - NORMA YEAR - DRY YEAR RESERVOIR CHARACTER ISTIC TOTAL OUTFLOW - WET YEAR - NORMAL YEAR - DRY YEAR DETERMINE Q DESIGN DETERMINE Q 95 dan Q 50 SYNTHETIC DISCHARGE SIMULATION DESIGN STRUCTURES PREDICTION OF RAINFALL CLIMATE& DISCHARGE PREDICTION OFINFLOW (YEARLY) RULE CURVE / OPERATING RULE CALCULATION ENERGY POWER GENERATED P FIRM = 9.8.e t.e g.q 95 H P SECONDARY = 9.8.e t.e g.q 50 H ACCURATE? NO ADJUST OUTFLOW YES RELEASE OUTFLOW FOLLOW IN THE TARGET RULE CURVE RELEASE OUTFLOW LESS THAN TARGET Source: Min of Public Work 8

9 AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY & GEOPHYSICS (BMKG) JL. ANGKASA I NO. 2 KEMAYORAN JAKARTA PUSAT INDONESIA TEL/ FAX

10 Eurasian Plate Pacific Plate 12 cm/yr 5-6 cm/yr India-Australian Plate ACTIVE TECTONICS of INDONESIA (Bock et al, 2004) 10

11 History of Tsunami in Indonesia ( ) 54 Event History of Tsunami in Australia New Zealand ( ) 50 Event 11

12 History of Tsunami in Japan ( ) 145 Event History of Tsunami in India ( ) 3 Event 12

13 MOST OF INDONESIA TSUNAMI Local Tsunami (arrive < 30 minute) Remote Rural Area Unsophisticated Communication System Limited Electricity Grid Network Lack of Terrestrial Communication 13

14 MULTI MODA INFORMATION DISSEMINATION BMKG USA nooa.gov AUSTRALIA bom.gov.au AsiaStar (RANET) PALAPA-C (DVB) GTS Line NGO-USA Ranet system.net Internet DVB SERVER Earthquake/ Tsunami warning Weather forecast Climate forecast FDRS BMKG INTERNET LEASED LINE (FO, RF) SMS FAX, PHONE FO = Fiber Optic RF = Radio Frequency Interface Institutions 14

15 5 IN ONE INFORMATION DISSEMINATION Application 5 in 1 in Interface Institution SMS FAX BMKG TXT & XML File Dedicated line RANET sms fax Web GIS Info-BMKG alarm WEB GIS Info-BMKG Alarm 15

16 PROJECTION OF ANNUAL AVERAGE RAINFALL (Contribution of BMKG for Energy Sector) Source: Soetamto Workshop Int l HMD, Maret

17 PROJECTION OF ANNUAL AVERAGE RAINFALL (Contribution of BMKG for Energy Sector) Source: Soetamto Workshop Int l HMD, Maret

18 BUILDING PARTNERSHIP WITH KEY USER Public and Users Social of sectors (ex: Agriculture, Transportation, Energy, Forestry, Infrastructure, Health, Water, Coastal Area Infrastructure, Fishery The Media Policy maker Governmental authorities policy and decision maker High level Policy and decision maker Industry / Provider of Instrument Integration of Communication Ex; Partner with Provider of instrument (Tide Gauge), need for adjustment of data logger specification to finer sampling rate from 15 to 1 to be also used for multiply hazard services 18

19 A NEW APPROACH FOR THE EFFECTIVENESS OF EARLY WARNING SYSTEM A certain instrument can be developed for the usage of multiply hazard detection. Ex: Additional installment of GPS to radiosonde transmitter. Several hazard communication system, integrated in to a single decision. Ex: Tide Gauge is utilized by office of survey and mapping Met Service Tsunami center. Ex: For the office of survey and Tide Gauge is originally utilized merely for mapping coastal line purpose (with sampling rate 15 ). For Met. Service, Tide Gauge is utilized for measuring wave height as marine meteorology information to support shipman (with sampling rate 60 ). In Tsunami Center, Tide gauge data in utilized to measure tsunami height (with sampling rate 1 ) be finer to sampling. What we should do is perform adjustment of sampling rate to be finer, to sampling rate 1 instead of sampling rate 60 and 15. It is the reason that building partner with industry as the provider of instrument is highly important. 19

20 BMKG: Activities to support National Action Plan on adaptation and mitigation Climate Change Severe Impact for AGRICULTURE sector National Action Plan/ Mitigation Adaptation of Climate Change (Ministry of Environment) BMKG in Cooperation with Concerned-University & institutions Planting pattern and crop variety Rainy season prediction (monsoon onset, wet spell, rain character during the season) Food diversity Wetland intensification Dry season prediction (monsoon onset, dry spell, rain character during the season) Primary seed Crop area extensification Monthly rainfall prediction, 3 months ahead Increase use of natural fertilizer and reduce use of Flood potency forecast, 3 months ahead chemical fertilizer IPCC (AR IV) & WMO Planting area diversification Management improvement and land protection through rebiosation Short term rainfall forecast 10 days Provide agroclimatology potency atlas Provide climate map Provide drought risk map Green House Gasses information Universities (IPB, ITB, UI, UGM) 20