Climate Change and the future of Coral Reefs
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1 Climate Change and the future of Coral Reefs
2 Talk Outline Why are reefs important? Phase-shifts, tipping-points and resilience of coral reefs What can we do locally to manage resilience and adapt to climate-change? Take-home Lessons
3 Coral reefs Preserving reefs isn t t just a conservation agenda for saving biodiversity it s s a social, economic and moral imperative
4 ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies ( ) Field Sites in 38 countries Providing practical advice to governments and NGOs globally
5 Drivers of Change on Coral Reefs Human population growth and migration Wealth distribution and evolving markets Leading to runoff from land, over-fishing, and climate change (the major threats )..the growing scale of all of these requires unprecedented international cooperation.
6 Recognizing the boundaries within which humanity can operate safely Response Variable, e.g., Extent of land ice Earth System State Planetary Boundary Threshold Safe operating space Zone of Uncertainty Bad place we want to avoid Drivers of change Control Variable, e.g., ppm CO2
7 RESILIENCE The capacity of a system to absorb insults or disturbances without fundamentally changing into an different configuration or state The system can be ecological, socio-economic or both (a linked social-ecological system) Alternate states may be desirable or undesirable, and so management may seek to bolster or undermine resilience
8 before after Coral Reefs Loss of resilience leading to an altered, degraded state
9 before after Pelagic Systems
10 before after Kelp Forests
11 Phase Shifts and Tipping Points.
12 Phase-shifts on coral reefs Multiple Drivers, multiple States Bellwood, Hughes, Folke & Nystrom, Nature 2004
13 Phase Shifts, Tipping Points and Hysteresis.
14 Phase Shifts, Tipping Points and Hysteresis.
15 Jamaica 1979 Acropora palmata zone Elkhorn coral Acropora cervicornis zone Staghorn coral
16
17 Die-off of Diadema in the Caribbean 1983
18 Jamaica 1983
19 Jamaica Phase-shift to macroalgae
20 Australian responses to risks : Scaling-up management efforts, based on an improved understanding of ecological processes, learning from elsewhere, trials of NTAs : Rezoning of the GBR in 2004, aimed at maintaining ecological function and resilience, anticipating future uncertainty New fishing regulations 10-year targeted water-quality plan for reducing nutrient and sediment run-off
21 BUT.. Almost no action yet on curbing greenhouse gas emissions
22 Climate-change Impacts: Coral Bleaching 1998, 2002,????
23 Global warming and coral bleaching
24 Selective Impacts of Climate Change 100 % Bleached A B C D E F G H I J Species
25 .. and some species bounce back faster
26 Managing Resilience of Coral Reefs Incorporating the role of human activities What are the consequences of loss of large fishes from reefs? In particular, does overfishing of herbivores reduce reef resilience to climate change?
27 Large-scale fish exclusion experiment (during post-bleaching recovery) Three Treatments: Full cages, partial cages, open plots
28
29
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31 Sargassum heaven Inside fenced plots After 3 years
32
33 after 15 days
34 After 4 weeks. Fish play critical roles in both preventative and curative care
35 70 Macroalgal Cover 60 % Algal Cover ` Time (weeks) Cages Controls
36 Coral Recruitment 150 No. of Recruits per plot Full Cage Partial Cage Plot Treatment
37 Loss of fish biodiversity is important! Excluding herbivorous fishes increases macroalgae, reduces coral recruitment, impairs resilience Managing fisheries (and also waterquality) can help prevent phaseshifts, help to maintain reef resilience to future climate change. (Local Management Global Threat)
38 SUMMARY Climate change, runoff and over-fishing are the three big issues that have to be addressed together Prevention is better than cure Reefs are not doomed if we act quickly (but they will continue to change) The decisions we make now, or don't make, will have profound long-term consequences.
39 Thank you Terry Hughes
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