Energy, Water and Food Security. Connection in the Mekong Region

Transcription

1 Energy, Water and Food Security Nexus in Thailand and Transboundary Connection in the Mekong Region Chayanis Krittasudthacheewa, Ph.D. Stockholm Environment Institute - Asia Session 4 The Benefits and Challenges of Operationalizing the Nexus International ti Conference on Regional Energy Governance and the Nexus Perspective: Challenges in the Asia Pacific Region 5-6 December 2012, Double-Tree Hotel by Hilton, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

2 Why Thailand? Energy Sale in Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) GMS generation in GWh Cambodia Myanmar Laos Thailand Vietnam CSG Total Energy sale Import Export Source: ICEM,

3 Overview 1. Background on nexus and cross-scale scale inter-connection 2. Thailand energy security and its transboundary connection in the Mekong region 3. Hydropower development and implications to water and food security 4. Opportunities to improve water, energy and food security 5. Conclusions Source: Hoff, 2011

4 1. Background on Nexus and Inter-connection Water-Energy-Food Nexus Diagram Source: Hoff, 2011 (SEI)

5 Cross-Scale Inter-connection Regional drivers (i.e. Investment flows, Migration, Natural resources) Local Local Local Local Local impact impact impact impact impact Local Local Local Local Local decision decision decision decision decision Source: CSIRO (2012). Exploring Mekong Region Futures

6 Cross-Border Inter-connection Mekong region is highly connected ~270m people, ~2.3m km 2 Connecting dynamics: Investment flows, migration, natural resources Local/National decisions but regional implications likely (Water, Food, Energy) Source: CSIRO (2012). Exploring Mekong Region Futures

7 2. Thailand Energy Security and Transboundary Connection in the Mekong region Key WEF nexus issues for Thailand Hydropower development Bio-energy crop expansion Irrigation Development Agriculture structure Energy for fertilizers Etc. Hoff, 2011 Hoff, 2011 Water intensity for electricity generation Photo voltaics concentrating gas coal /oil/ hydropower biofuels solar power nuclear m 3 / MWh ~ 0 ~ 2 ~ 1 ~ 2 ~ 60 ~ 180

8 Power Demand Forecast ( ), PDP 2010 (Rev3) MW 60,000 50,000 Policy for 20-year Energy Efficiency (EE) Plan ( ) : Reduce the Thailand s energy intensity by 25% of the total final energy consumption by 2030 (A): Feb 2010 (Adj.) (1): EE20% Peak Demand in ,000 (A) : Feb 2010 (Adj.) = 55,750 MW (1) : EE20% = 52,256 MW 30,000 Case Avg. Growth Year Hamburger Crisis (MW) (%) EE20% 1, % 20,000 TomYam Kung Crisis GDP Growth Rate (by NESDB 29 Nov 2011) 10,000 Plan 11 Plan 12 Plan 13 Plan 14 Avg. (12-16) 16) (17-21) (22-26) 26) (27-30) ( ) 2030) Year (Gross Generation) Source: MOE, Thailand

9 Renewable Energy Plan (PDP 2010 Rev. 3) Policy: Renewable Energy Target: 25% in Type Biomass Solar Wind Hydro Biogas MSW Tides & Waves Total As of ,048 Additional ( ) 2,602 3,802 1, ,482 Grand Total 3, ,940 1, ,530 MW 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 Total Capacity at the end of 2030 : 10,530 MW AEDP Tides & Waves : 2 MW MSW : 374 MW Biogas : 152 MW Hydro : 736 MW Wind 1,977 MW Solar 3,940 MW 2, AEDP= Alternative Energy Development Plan Source: MOE, Thailand Biomass 3, MW

10 Power Purchase from Neighboring Countries Countries Capacity as MOU (MW) Lao PDR 7,000 (MOU 22 December 2007) Myanmar 1,500 (MOU 4 July 1997) China 3,000 (MOU 12 November 1998) Cambodia (MOU 3 February 2000) Not Specified Malaysia 300 MW (HVDC) (MOU 6 May 2004) Source: MOE, Thailand

11 Regional Power Connection Existing GMS Power Exchange Projected in 2025 Source: MOE, Thailand

12 Numb ber of HPP Regional Power Development Number of Hydropower plants Existing Additiona al 2025 Existing Additiona al 2025 Existing Additiona al 2025 Cambodia Lao PDR Myanmar Thailand Vietnam Regional Hydropower Development Number of hydropower plants - Installed capacity of hydropower Small <10 MW Medium/Large Run of River Medium/Large Storage Regional Power Development Installed capacity of hydropower MW Installed for HPP P Cambodia Lao PDR Myanmar Source: MOE, Thailand 0 Ex xisting tional Addit 2025 Ex xisting tional Addit 2025 Ex xisting tional Addit 2025 Thailand Vietnam Small <10 MW Medium/Large Runof River Medium/Large Storage 12

13 3. Hydropower Thailand: Energy development securityand Implications to Water and Food Security Thailand s economy is growing but domestic fossil fuel resources are declining i Thai government s strategy is to pursue diversification of supply to achieve energy security Thailand s hydropower potential is limited and energy from hydropower in Laos and Myanmar is cheap As the key energy purchaser, Thailand provides incentives for neighbouring countries and private investors to develop hydropower Thai consumers and companies harvest the benefits and export the social and environmental costs of hydropower Source: Jensen and Lange (2012)

14 Mekong Hydropower Dam Fishery: food security 1. Largest freshwater fishery in the World 2. Capture fisheries estimated at US $ billion per year (losses at 470 M per year) 3. Fisheries provide 47 80% of the animal protein consumed by 60 million people 4. Fisheries highly dependant on wild capture 165 Mekong species are long distance migrants Source: Stuart Orr, 2012 China: 3 dams operational, 1 dam under construction, 4 dams planned Laos: 9 dams planned including Xayaburi Cambodia: 2 dams planned

15 Lost Fish Protein: Two scenarios for Mekong basin dams 1. Replacement of 340,000 tonnes (16% reduction) of lost fish protein due to the proposed 11 main stem dams 2. Replacement of the net loss in fish protein ( 23.4 to 37.8%) as a result of all 88 dams proposed for development by 2030 Source: Stuart Orr, 2012

16 If we will replace lost protein from fish through expanding livestock production, 1. Water requirements for livestock protein production increase from 6% to17% butis considerably higher in Cambodia and Laos 2. Additional pasture land required to replace fish protein with ithdomestic livestock ranges from 7,080 to 24,188 km2 (13% to 63%) 3. Increased imports of livestock feedstock & protein (soy cake from 19,895 km2 now) 4. Higher protein prices may impact the poor 5. Cambodia followed by Laos will be the biggest losers in terms of food insecurity Source: Stuart Orr, 2012 Source: Jensen and Lange (2012)

17 4. Opportunities to improve water, energy and food security 1. Increasing resource productivity it 2. Using waste as a resource in multi-use systems 3. Stimulating development through economic incentives. 4. Governance, institutions and policy coherence 5. Benefiting from productive ecosystems 6. Integrated poverty alleviation and green growth 7. Capacity building and awareness raising SEI: Promoting sustainable lifestyles and consumption patterns; targeted trans disciplinary nexus research; fully integrated assessments of water, energy, and food at all scales; quantitative trade off analyses; application of decision supporting and planning tools: Water Evaluation and Allocation Planning (WEAP); Longrange Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP); and Resource Efficiency Analysis Programme (REAP); and integrated waterenergy planning platform Source: Hoff, 2011 (SEI)

18 Targeted Cross-border and Trans-disciplinary Nexus Research and Capacity Building Sustainable Mekong Research Network SUMERNET (2005- present) Long-term research network ( Aim to inform and influence policy development on sustainable development issues in the Mekong region by strengthening th knowledge-based d policy processes Now a total of more than 40 member institutes (e.g. academic, government, NGOs, CSO, private sector, media) in the Mekong countries and Philippines, supporting more than 100 researchers Ten cross-border collaborating projects including those related to nexus issues

19 Supporting On-going Planning Mechanism with Introduction of Multi-Objective Oriented Planning Exploring Mekong Region Futures nexus on food, water and energy investment NE Thailand Futures Study Source: CSIRO, 2010 Objective: introduce multipleobjective oriented planning based on information on the food- energy-water nexus and climate change, land-use and migration, in order to create planning scenarios and the design of a reasonable policy and decision making options through River Basin Organisation Committees.

20 Water - Energy Decision Support and Planning Tool Integrated Climate-Water-Energy-Emissions Framework Links 2 Decision Support Platforms WEAP climate-driven hydrology climate-driven sectoral wate demand water systems operation water allocation LEAP climate-driven electricity demand electricity production and dispatch from various fuels GHG emissions Source: Vishal

21 Long range Energy Alternatives Planning System Integrated energy planning and GHG mitigation assessment. Local, national, regional and global applicability. Energy, emissions and cost-benefit assessment. Powerful and user-friendly data management, reporting & scenario building tools. Choice of methods: simulation/optimization & engineering/econometrics. i i Specialized models available for detailed d assessment of transport and electric generation sectors. 1000s of users in 190 countries including Governments, NGOs, utilities, universities, consulting companies. Widely applied by countries undertaking GHG mitigation assessments for their National Communications to the UNFCCC, and for developing Low Emission Development Strategies (LEDS). Source: Purkey, D.

22 Water Evaluation And Planning System Integrated watershed hydrology and water planning model GIS-based, graphical drag & drop interface Physical simulation of water demands and supplies Additional simulation modeling: modeling equations and links to spreadsheets, scripts & other models Scenario management capabilities Groundwater, water quality, reservoir, hydropower and financial modules Source: Purkey, D.

23 5. CONCLUSIONS 1. Thailand s energy demand is increasing significantly following the economic growth. As domestic resources are declining, the country is pursuing diversification of supply and purchase the power from the neighboring g countries for the energy security. 2. Key water-food-energy nexus issues for Thailand and the Mekong region are hydropower development and bio-energy crop expansion. 3. The Mekong countries are highly connected through the regional power exchange including hydropower import/export. p Hydropower development could have significant impacts on food security, loss in capture fisheries. 4. If potential loss in fish protein to be replaced by domestic livestock protein, water requirements for livestock protein production will increase from 6% to 17% and additional pasture land required will range from 7,080 to 24,188 km2 (13% to 63%). 5. Several opportunities can improve water-energy and food security. For the capacity building and awareness raising, through supporting on-going planning mechanism on decision support and nexus assessment tools and long-term research network with a focus on cross-border and trans-disciplinary nexus research and capacity building could contribute to these efforts

24 6. References 1. Hoff, H. (2011): Understanding the Nexus. Background Paper for the Bonn2011 Conference: The Water, Energy and Food Security Nexus. Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Stockholm. 2. ICEM (2012): Components of the Regional power plan and assessing the potential environmental, social and economic impacts of power sector development. Two presentations made for the Thailand National Consultation of the RETA 7764: Ensuring sustainability of GMS Regional Power Development. 3. Jensen K. M., Lange R.B. (2012): New Development Financiers, Civil Society and Climate Change in Transboundary Water Governance. Presentation made at SEI-DIIS joint seminar. Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS). 4. Kurovat W. (2012):Thailand Power Development Plan (PDP2010: Revision 3). Two presentations made for the Thailand National Consultation of The RETA 7764: Ensuring sustainability of GMS Regional Power Development. Energy Policy and Planning Office, Ministry of Energy (MOE), Thailand. 5. Stuart Orr. (2012):Dams on the Mekong River: Lost fish protein and the implications for land and water resources. Presentation from the 2012 World Water Week in Stockholm. WWF International.

25 7. Acknowledgement 1. Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA) 2. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) 3. Australian Agency for International ti Development (AusAid) Aid) 4. The Institute of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS), Malaysia 5. Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS) 6. UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) 7. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) 8. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) 9. Stockholm International Water Institute (SIWI) 10. TERI - The Energy and Resources Institute 11. World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) 12. World Wide Fund For Nature (WWF) 13. Deutsches Institut für Menschenrechte (DIMR) 14. Global Water Partnership (GWP) 15. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) 16. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) 17. World Bank (WB) 18. World Economic Forum (WEF)

26 THANK YOU! Contact: Chayanis KRITTASUDTHACHEEWA, Ph.D.(Ms) Deputy Director, Stockholm Environment Institute Asia (SEI Asia) 15th Floor, Witthyakit Building, 254 Chulalongkorn University, Soi Chula 64, Phyathai h Road, Pathumwan Sub district, i Pathumwan District, Bangkok 10330, THAILAND. Tel: +66 (0) (ext. 101) Fax: +66 (0) E mail: chayanis.k@sei international.org