New Challenges for Wind Energy IMIA WGP 62 (09) Karl C. Hertenberger

Transcription

1 New Challenges for Wind Energy IMIA WGP 62 (09) Karl C. Hertenberger

2 New Challenges for Wind Energy S 2 Working Group: Karl C. Hertenberger, HDI-Gerling, Hanover Chairman Jaime de Argüelles, Allianz, Madrid Rainer Ellinghaus, AXA, Cologne Kun Hong Ho, Scor, Singapore Thomas Howe, HSB, London Michael Johst, If, Copenhagen Truels Kjer, Codan, Copenhagen Niels Kragelund, Codan, Copenhagen Michael McBride, Munich Re, Princeton Alberto Mengotti, Mapfre, Madrid Friedrich Scholz, AXA, Cologne Klaus Schreiber, Gothaer, Cologne

3 New Challenges for Wind Energy S 3

4 A) Ongoing Booming Demand 1.1 Implication of the Kyoto Protocol Kyoto Protocol adopted in Kyoto Japan in 1997 Kyoto Protocol came into force in February 2005 Kyoto Protocol Main feature: To set binding targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European Community Main target : Reduction of man made greenhouse gas emissions by approx. 5% from 1990 levels over the period from S 4

5 Climate Change Message of the IPCC One clear message from the IPCC s 4th Assessment Report: To avoid the worst and irreversible damage of climate change, the global greenhouse gas emissions must peak and begin to decline before 2020 IPCC: Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change S 5

6 A) Ongoing Booming Demand 1.1 Implication of the Kyoto Protocol The Kyoto Protocol contains no statement in respect of which technology should be installed to reduce the emission of Green House Gas (GHG) Wind energy as part of the so called renewable energies does not emit any GHG Even during their life time cycle modern wind turbine generators produce 60 to 80 times the energy consumed in their manufacturing process Therefore wind energy becomes a main topic all over the world to fulfil the targets of the Kyoto Protocol S 6

7 A) Ongoing Booming Demand 1.2 Expected outcome of the Copenhagen Conference Copenhagen UN Climate Change Conference Dec.2009 Expected outcome: Further reduction of man made impact on climate change beyond the 2012 targets Minimum of 30% reduction of GHG on the basis of 1990 Major Questions: How much are the industrialized nations willing to reduce their emissions of GHG? How much are the major developing countries such as China and India willing to limit the still rapid growth of their emissions How to finance the engagement of developing countries in reducing their emissions S 7

8 A) Ongoing Booming Demand Arguments pro Wind Energy Wind energy : Is clean Is indigenous Is inexhaustible Is fast to deploy Creates many jobs Uses virtually no water Is economically competitive Is a strong contributor to decarbonise the power sector S 8

9 A) Ongoing Booming Demand 2. Wind Power Market Overview Statistics published in 2008 prior to the onset of the financial crisis in 2008 The renewable energy sector seems not to be affected to the same extent like other parts of the industrial or financial sector The financial crisis must not be an excuse for not investing in renewable energy (British Prime Minister Gordon Brown) S 9

10 A) Ongoing Booming Demand 2.1 Status in 2008 Global cumulative wind power installed capacity 2008 is GW - 54,5% of which is in Europe Total worldwide GW S 10 Source: GWEC 2008 Report

11 A) Ongoing Booming Demand 2.1 Forecast 2013 Global wind power market growth is expected to be 22,4% p.a. till 2013 Forecast development wind power market (annual newly installed and cumulated capacity in MW) S 1

12 A) Ongoing Booming Demand 2.2 Capacity Growth by Region Regional installed wind power capacity % +79% +122% % % % +221% 5.3 TOTAL WORLDWIDE 2013: 332 GW (+174%) S 12

13 A) Ongoing Booming Demand 2.3 Manufacturer Market Share The wind market is yet dominated by early movers However, large utility companies already account for 37% of cumulative installations 2008 Top 10 Wind Turbine Suppliers (Supplied GW in %) 2007 Top 10 Energy Company/ Independent Power Producer Wind Farm Operators (Cumulative GW capacity (in total: ~34,5 GW)) Source: Roland Berger, Strategy Consultant

14 A) Ongoing Booming Demand Some Highlights USA passed Germany and is now no.1 in wind power China s total capacity doubled for the 4th year in a row Ranking Top 5: USA-Germany-Spain-China-India 36.5 billion market value for turbine installations 400,000 people employed in wind industry Electricity production 260 TWh Saving 158 million tons of CO 2 every year S 14

15 A) Ongoing Booming Demand 2.4 New Manufacturers Large demand for wind turbines forces new manufacturers to enter the market In China alone more than 20 new turbine manufacturers entered in 2008 the Chinese market (in total 70 manufacturers in China) The challenge: To develop and manufacture wind turbines which sucessfully last its design lifetime of 20 years S 15

16 B) Technological Development and Trends 1. New Technologies Constant development of new types and models Main focus on improvement of conventional three blade upwind turbines Trend towards larger and more efficient designs Improving the reliability through early detection of problems by increasing the sensitivity of the system Currently the largest generators in serial production are 5 MW. Larger units are being tested New offshore installation system Place And Plug TM can save up to 10% of the total project costs S 16

17 B) Technological Development and Trends 1. New Technologies Principle of PLACE AND PLUG TM S 17

18 B) Technological Development and Trends 1. New Dimensions Blade Hub Rotor Nacelle Hub Height Rotor diameter < 750 kw <2t <3t <6t <28t <45m <48m kw kw > 2500 MW >2t >6t 10-18t >3t >15t 25-71t >6t >33t t >28t >56t t >45m >65m m >48m >79m m Source: BCG Research, Grafik: Bundesverband Windenergie S 18

19 B) Technological Development and Trends 2. New Dimensions S 19

20 B) Technological Development and Trends 2. New Dimensions Wind farms from relatively small size in Europe up to over 100 MW in USA and Australia Insurers view: Increasing exposure esp.in BI Demand exceeding the manufaturing supply by far resulting in a) Escalating costs for WTG Insurers view: Uncertainties in values reported Consequences: Limiting liability b) Severe quality problems of major components Insurers view: Increasing claims esp. serial losses S 20

21 B) Technological Development and Trends 3.1 Repowering S 21

22 C) Claims Issues Normal MB Losses Gearbox Main shaft Generator S 2

23 C) Claims Issues Fire Losses Most operational covers are all risk covers, the property perils are included!! Fire damage is often very extensive and results in a total loss of the WTG. In most cases, there is no automatic fire extinguishing equipment in wind turbines The local fire-fighting services will in most cases at best be able to ensure a controlled burn-down of the WTG S 23

24 C) Claims Issues Fire Losses Defense of fire not possible (Source: Spiegel) S 24

25 C) Claims Issues Fire Losses Burning wind turbine at 107 meters height, 2008 Buxtehude (Source: Local XXL) S 25

26 C) Claims Issues Fire Losses Burning WTG at 64 meters height, Rendsburg-Eckernförde. Fire following lightning strike (Source: Spiegel) S 26

27 C) Claims Issues Serial Losses Major known problems on: Foundations - gearboxes generators - blades German market reports: turbines have defects in foundations (total:21.000) Thousands of faulty blades Hundreds of faulty bearings and generators Assumption: 15-20% of all installed wind turbine units contain defects at the time of delivery S 27

28 C) Claims Issues Serial Losses Serial defect in foundation S 28

29 D) Offshore versus Onshore farms Different weather conditions More complicated handling of wind turbines Cable laying between wind turbines Export cables Additional and different costs in general and in particular for DSU or BI S 29

30 D) Offshore versus Onshore farms S 30

31 D) Offshore versus Onshore farms S 31

32 D) Offshore versus Onshore farms S 32

33 E) Risk Considerations 1. Certification 2. Fire Protection 3. Condition Monitoring 4. Oil Analysis 5. Warranty Surveys F) Guarantee-Service and Maintenance G) Requirements on Persons working with WTG S 3

34 E) Risk Considerations 1. Certification IEC S 34

35 Key risk features: E) Risk Considerations 2. Fire protection High value concentration in the nacelle Concentration of potential ignition sources in the nacelle Increased risk of lightning strike Unmanned operation No fire-fighting interventions due to height Remote and hard-to-reach WTG sites (offshore) S 35

36 E) Risk Considerations 2. Lightning S 36

37 Copper mesh around the entire blade tip E) Risk Considerations 2.Lightning Protection Advantage Easy to laminate into blade surface No discharge into interior of blade through the blade structure Protection of the entire blade Disadvantage Susceptibility to destruction of the mesh structure at strike point Difficult to repair and replace Replaceable metal tip or cap Fairly low melt-out damage at strike point Replacement is possible Complex/costly design and attachment to glass fibre structure Conductive connection for discharge must be provided Replaceable metal receptors Metal sections (in blade edges) Fairly low melt-out damage at strike point Fairly low melt-out damage at strike point No discharge into inferior of blade through the blade structure Additional protection from lateral lightning strike Small arrester area, no protection of edges at blade tip Complex/costly design Conductive connection for discharge must be provided Complex/costly design and attachment to glass fibre structure Not easily replaceable Need to be designed for the requisite fatigue strength under variable stress Advantages and drawbacks of various rotor blade protection systems S 37

38 Condition Monitoring Systems detect deviations from normal operating level in order to: Maximise component utilisation by extending equipment s service life Enable trouble-free equipment operability Enable high availability rates E) Risk Considerations 3.Condition Monitoring Enable a timely, effective and cost-efficient response Minimise the necessary repair times and costs Avoid prolonged shutdowns and associated consequential costs S 38

39 Warranty Surveyors E) Risk Considerations 5.Warranty Surveys London Offshore Consultants Global Maritime Noble Denton Associates London Salvage Association Det Norske Veritas Germanischer Lloyd Survey Association Ltd. A/S S 39

40 MR Special Offshore Wind Farms Insurance Cover The warranty surveyor shall: Be involved from early stage of the project Review and approve procedures and their execution Issue certificates on the project (as applicable) Review and assess the suitability of vessels and tools Attend and verify critical paths of the project Specify recommendations to be met Issue a report which documents his work, findings and recommendations S 40 E) Risk Considerations 5.Warranty Surveys

41 F) Guarantee- Service and Maintenance Manufacturer s warranty period: normally 2 years extensions up to 5 years are possible To evaluate the manufacturer s willingness/ability to meet the warranty obligations is difficult for the buyer The warranty claim can wrongly be claimed in the operational cover Noncompliance with service period can lead to a denial of claims S 41

42 G) Requirements on Persons working with Wind Turbines Allow only qualified people to work with WTGs Service and repair work requires training and knowledge Availability of updated version of software and service manuals Access to spare parts Sufficient experience with control systems S 42

43 New Challenges for Wind Energy H) Conclusions Kyoto Protocol has set binding targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European Community to reduce GHG Copenhagen Conference in 12/ 2009 is expected to define further targets to reduce GHG by 30% in 2020 Wind energy is already and will be a major part to achieve the GHG targets The wind turbine industry has developed rapidly within the last 15 years and will continue to expand at an even faster rate in the next decade For manufacturers it will become an critical issue to invest heavily in quality of design, manufacturing and maintenance of their equipment S 43

44 New Challenges for Wind Energy H) Conclusions For insurance industry serial defects will be an ongoing severe problem Employment of improved monitoring systems can reduce those defects Offshore wind parks will increase the risks and the costs for the insurance industry explicitly Insurers who wish to specialise and profit in the field of wind energy should be willing to invest heavily in engineering knowledge, underwriting risk management and claims handling S 4

45 New Challenges for Wind Energy Thank you for your kind attention S 45