Panel #2 - Wind logistics: Onshore towards offshore 2 nd Annual DHL Global Wind Conference

Transcription

1 Panel #2 - Wind logistics: Onshore towards offshore Hamburg, September 26, 2016 Renewable Energy Solutions Presented by Thomas Poulsen, Managing Partner

2 Wind logistics: Onshore towards offshore Key Definitions for this Panel: Onshore wind supply chains and offshore wind supply chains The different logistics, shipping, and transportation concepts Difference in Maturity Levels within the Wind Industry: Onshore vs Offshore Europe vs Asia vs North America Renewable Energy consulting solutions Focus on global wind energy shipping and logistics Business experience and academic research of the wind supply chain Practical global hands-on experience Asia, North America, the Middle East, and Europe 2

3 Onshore and Offshore wind distribution Cumulative distribution as of end 2013 (MW) Onshore Offshore Installed distribution in 2013 (MW) Onshore Offshore 433 GW end GW offshore wind Source: Navigant Research (2015), GWEC (2016) Source: BTM Consult a part of Navigant (2014), GWEC, and own construction 3

4 The shipping and logistics Image sources: Courtesy DHL and A2Sea 4

5 Similarities and Differences Similarities Inland: - Same trucks / Equipment - Daytime - Infrastructure - Temp. storage Port storage: Actual maintenance: Source: Poulsen, Aalborg University Differences Sea carriage: - Assembly to site (outbound) Infrastructure: - Quayside loading / logistics - Diff. equipment (vertical) - Area / space (buffer) - Seamen education (outbound) - BOP - Installation / equipment / skills - Certificates - Transportation - Equipment Maintenance: Conclusion: Whereas both similarities and differences exist between the onshore and offshore wind farm supply chains, the offshore wind supply chain is more complex in terms of shipping and logistics 5

6 Reasons For Going Offshore Onshore is a great business worldwide why bother going offshore? The Limits Onshore Size The GE 1.5s MW workhorse is 100 m high The Enercon E-126 is 7.5 MW and is 198,5 m high A total installation height of 200 metres (hub height + rotor radius) is the maximum for which permission can be obtained in many European countries so the E-126 is just within limits - Renewable Energy World NIMBY Source: Renewable Energy World and GE, photo source Renewable Energy Solutions 6

7 Reasons For Going Offshore Onshore is still a great business world wide why both going offshore? The Limits Onshore Space Huge demand for land housing, agriculture, communities. Offshore sites near demand centers less transmission, less loses. Source: Renewable Energy Solutions,

8 Reasons For Going Offshore Onshore is still a great business world wide why both going offshore? The Limits Onshore Space Huge demand for land housing, agriculture, communities. Offshore sites near demand centers less transmission, less loses. Donghai Bridge Wind Farm 102 MW Shanghai pop. 24 million London Array 630 MW London pop. 8,5 million Energy loss when transported via grid over long distances Energy production near consumption area Land scarcity in urban areas Urbanization trends Megacity development Source: Renewable Energy Solutions, 2015 Images: Google 7

9 The Difference In Transport Modes - Examples Rail Balance Of Plant Source: Poulsen, Aalborg University Image Source: Photo: Courtesy J Poulsen Shipping 8

10 The Supply Chain and Wind Farm Life-Cycle in Context Shipping & logistics Two different flows: Onshore and Offshore Source: Poulsen, Aalborg University 9

11 Onshore to Offshore Wind Case Study: China An Overview of the Chinese Market: Why is it special? Why is China in the lead globally? What is its future? How will offshore fare here? Renewable Energy Solutions At Renewable Energy Solutions, we specialize in tailor-made and 10

12 Wind Development in China q q q q q A period of unclear policies, high costs, and lacking reforms q With a target of 1GW the industry only reached 404MW q 1st Five-Year Plan with provincial renewable energy targets q Evolving to larger projects and reaching capacity of 2.6GW q 1st Renewable Law with legal framework, regulations and tariffs q Licensing and technology transfers enabled upto 6GW annually q The Wind Base Program identified 7 areas with 10GW targets GW Renewable Energy Solutions At Renewable Energy Solutions, we specialize in tailor-made and value driven strategy and consulting solutions for companies and organizations in the renewable energy sector q China is reaching and exceeding goals and 100GW is realistic Years Source: Renewable Energy Solutions, 2015, photo source Renewable Energy Solutions 11

13 Huge Onshore and Offshore Growth 46.9% CAGR Renewable Energy Solutions At Renewable Energy Solutions, we specialize in tailor-made and value driven strategy and consulting solutions for companies and organizations in the renewable energy sector Source: Renewable Energy Solutions, 2015, photo source Renewable Energy Solutions 12

14 But There Are Issues Bottlenecks: Unprecedented growth, combined with lack of planning and communication between authorities has caused problems and delays Supply chains struggled and local content rules had to be abandoned Offshore has even less technology and equipment Experience: Poor failure rates are damaging yields Limited installation experience offshore In 2011, 193 turbine trip incidents occurred between January and August, of which 54 resulted in the loss of 100 MW to 500 MW of capacity. - Power Magazine, 2013 Renewable Energy Solutions At Renewable Energy Solutions, we specialize in tailor-made and value driven strategy and consulting solutions for companies and organizations in the renewable energy sector These are generally issues related to manufacturing, logistical experience, transportation, and knowledge Source: Renewable Energy Solutions, 2015 Image Source: GearboxFailure.com 14

15 China s Options for Offshore Part-conclusions China: China cannot rely on its onshore wind supply chain to support offshore wind Repetition of onshore wind roll-out may create serious offshore wind challenges China needs wind energy onshore and offshore: Opportunities for European companies with logistics, shipping and transportation competencies incl. equipment and experience Renewable Energy Solutions At Renewable Energy Solutions, we specialize in tailor-made and value driven strategy and consulting solutions for companies and organizations in the renewable energy sector Source: Renewable Energy Solutions,

16 Comparison of Offshore Supply Chains China compared to the World? China, the Americas and Europe have successful turbine manufacture chains Cables and Substations proving more difficult Europe has the lead in supply chain readiness for offshore This comes with experience And the supply chain for the operations phase? Unscheduled maintenance is weak for all areas Europe has slight lead again 16

17 Questions & Answers thanks for listening NOW Independent consultant 2003 Own consulting firm Professional board member PhD Fellow, wind energy strategy/m&a/logistics BACKGROUND Shipping trainee, 1989 Posting to Indonesia 1991 for Damco Total: 18 years abroad, 7 countries CBS MBA in Shipping and Logistics, graduation 2011 Thomas Poulsen EDUCATION: MBA PhD (in progress) COUNTRIES (LIVED): Indonesia China Singapore Hong Kong USA United Kingdom United Arab Emirates 17