Introduction : Workshop Objectives and Agenda

Transcription

1 Introduction : Workshop Objectives and Agenda Mr Nicolas Brizard Key Expert INOGATE Technical Secretariat Ms Alenka Kinderman Loncarevic Expert - INOGATE Technical Secretariat INOGATE Regional Seminar on Energy Efficiency Indicators Minsk, Belarus, September 2015 B U I L D I N G P A R T N E R S H I P S F O R E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y 1

2 ITS Energy Statistics activities Regional Workshops : 1 - Energy Statistics for Energy planning (Chisinau - June) 2 - Energy efficiency indicators (Minsk - September) 3 - Energy Balance Compilation (Zagreb - November) Country activities focused on addressing specific needs of PCs Energy Balance Compilation Energy efficiency indicators RES Share calculation Quality management and reporting End-user surveys Monthly and prices statistics Country and regional activities are interlinked ESN meeting on November to assess work carried out during extension period and prepare beyond 2016 Our objective is to implement all activities by December

3 The 3 pillars of energy planning EBs provide aggregate indicators and overall consistency EEIs provide checks and controls Energy Balances (EBs) Most energy models have EBs as input data (Reference Energy System) Modelling can be used to complement FEC surveys Energy Efficiency Indicators (EEIs) Energy Modellin g Source: ITS EEIs used by models to calibrate relationships EEIs and Energy Models use similar data 3

4 Workshop Objectives and Expected Main objectives: Results Help PCs adopt best international practices in EEIs Encourage PCs to start calculation of EEIs using own data Build upon the work done by NSIs on energy statistics since 2012 (energy balances, end-user surveys, international reporting) Build upon the expertise of the IEA, the Energy Charter and the Energy Community (EEIs, Energy Policy Reviews, Surveys) Allow PCs to share good - and bad! - experiences Expected results: Data gaps for the calculation of EEIs identified and prioritized Stakeholders mapped at a national level In the medium term, proposed methodologies and templates adapted and implemented progressively by PCs 4

5 Workshop Agenda (1/2) Day 1 Regional perspectives on Energy Efficiency Policies: Energy Efficiency policies in INOGATE by Energy Charter Secretariat PC presentations on State of affairs in Energy Planning and Indicators Developing Energy Efficiency Indicators principles and case studies Role and importance of energy efficiency indicators (IEA) Experience of Household and Services surveys in the Energy Community (EIHP) Household survey on energy consumption in Belarus (Belstat) Day 2 Methodologies and tools for energy forecasts & scenarios Methodology for the calculation of Energy Efficiency Indicators (IEA) Energy Policy Reviews (IEA) IEA template for data collection and EEI calculation (IEA) Practical sessions: Exercises on sectoral energy efficiency indicators (IEA) Working with pre-filled IEA templates: Gap analysis (data) Institutional mapping (data sources and responsibilities) Calculation of indicators Roundtable discussion 5

6 Workshop Agenda (2/2) Day 3 Calculation of Energy Efficiency Indicators for the residential sector Model for Households - ITS Exercise 1 using Belarus data: calculation of EEIs - ITS Exercise 2 using Belarus data: interpolation - ITS Inogate Technical Secretariat Calculation of Energy Efficiency Indicators for the other sectors : Model for Industry - ITS Proposed approach for the services and transport sector - ITS Conclusions and wrap-up of the seminar 6

7 Спасибо! Thank you! Nicolas Brizard Key Expert Energy Statistics INOGATE Technical Secretariat Ms Alenka Kinderman Loncarevic Expert Energy Statistics INOGATE Technical Secretariat INOGATE Technical Secretariat and Integrated Programme in support of the Baku Initiative and the Eastern Partnership energy objectives

8 The rebound effect Direct Effect Consumers increase their use of the same energy service Increase in Energy Efficiency Reduction of relative price of energy Indirect Effect Consumers spend saved income on new energy consuming equipment & services Macroeconomic Effect Improved productivity drives growth, raising overall energy demand Source: ITS Team

9 The rebound effect (Ctd.) Rebound effects lower the benefits of energy efficiency gains estimated using the sole engineering approach Rebound effects are very difficult to measure and results from estimations or measured trials vary widely Direct effect: < 30% Mostly found in personal transport, space heating & space cooling Expect to decline in future as demand saturates and income increases Indirect effect: < 10%? Macroeconomic effect: Up to 50%? Measurement of last two effects pose methodological problems Rebound effects seem significant but not so large as to cause backfire (Rebound Effect >100%) Energy Efficiency measures remain useful but RE need to be accounted for in policy design and assessment Rebound Effect could be stronger in energy intensive sectors (price effect) and in developing countries where demand is not saturated

10 Why develop Energy Efficiency Indicators? Evaluation & Improvem ent Energy & Activity Data Energy Efficiency Indicators Analyse energy end-use and efficiency trends Examine impacts of economic activity and structure, demographics, income, prices, policies, lifestyles, technologies, etc. Implement ation Trends in Energy Demand Identify priorities (sectors, technologies, end-user groups) Design and monitor policies and measures to unlock EE potential Design policies & Measures Potential assessment for EE Data and indicators form the basis of quantitative targets Assess Energy and CO2 savings 10

11 The different levels of energy efficiency Process Plant, facility, house Company, organisation Industry, sector, geographical unit National Energy System International energy system Domain Technology Management Sectoral Policies & Measures National Policies & Measures International Policies & Measures Energy Efficiency needs to be addressed at all levels Several dimensions: technical, managerial, policies and measures Technical efficiency is only a small contributor to energy efficiency gains Managerial and organisational improvements can overshadow EE gains from (unaccompanied) technology improvements Need for comprehensive and internally consistent sets of policies and measures Energy Management Systems (EMS) and Programmes (EMP) should reflect this 11

12 Indicators and Policies: a complex relationship Indicators are usually linked to several policies or measures Most of the time, one indicator is impacted by several policies and measures Energy Efficiency Policies Labelling Minimum energy performance standards Economic incentives (tax credit, subsidy ) Energy efficiency obligation and white certificates Energy Efficiency Indicators Unit energy consumption of new appliances There is no unequivocal quantitative measure of energy efficiency. Instead, one must rely on a series of indicators relevant to the context New Zealand Energy Efficiency and Conservation Agency 12