Medium and long-term energy demand forecasting: Presentation of end-use methodology and modelling tools for energy demand planning

Transcription

1 Medium and long-term energy demand forecasting: Presentation of end-use methodology and modelling tools for energy demand planning Mr Damir Pešut Senior Expert INOGATE Technical Secretariat (ITS) INOGATE Regional Seminar on Energy Planning Chisinau, Moldova, 30 June 1 July 2015 B U I L D I N G P A R T N E R S H I P S F O R E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y 1

2 Energy Demand Analysis Energy Reserves/ Resources Primary Energy Production Secondary Energy Production Final Energy Consumption Useful Energy Demand Product/ Service Provided Example: Crude oil reserves (billion bbls) Crude oil production (bbls/day) Refinery for gasoline production (million liters/day) Gasoline purchased (liters) Motive power (horsepower) Travel (Vehicle-Km travelled) An Energy Demand Analysis Focuses on the Last Three Items

3 Useful Energy Demand Differs from Final Energy Consumption Useful Energy (UED) 50 m3 steam 70 Giga joules Final Energy Consumption (FEC) 4 tons of coal 100 Giga joules Thermodynamic Efficiency (η) 70% The general equation is UED = FEC x η

4 Specifics of Inogate Countries to be considered in Energy Planning big difference in urban and rural energy consumption pattern considerable changes in economy structure rapid improvement in technology appearance of new processes considerable changes in social behavior and in lifestyle

5 Model for Analysis of the Energy Demand Simulation model (not optimization) Applicable for medium and long term (not for short term) Based on the scenario approach (not econometric)

6 Time Horizon of Energy Planning Short Term Medium Term Long Term Disaggregated Bottom up Aggregated Top down

7 The Scenario A SCENARIO IS A SET OF CONSISTENT PARAMETERS DESCRIBING POSSIBLE LONG- TERM PATTERN OF A COUNTRY ECONOMY, DEMOGRAPHY, SOCIAL, AND TECHNICAL DEVELOPMENT

8 Top down aggregated approach Energy Demand Energy Demand

9 Bottom-up disaggregated approach Energy Demand Energy Demand

10 End-Use Model Methodology The structure of the final energy consumption of the country is broken down in a consistent manner, subdividing the economy into major consuming sectors and sub-sectors, e.g. agriculture; residential; transportation; etc. Energy consumption in each sub-sector is disaggregated into a multitude of end-uses, e.g.: space heating (services, residential); steam (industry); cooking (residential); motor fuels (transportation); etc.

11 Illustration of Decomposition of Final Energy Consumption Sectors Sub-sectors Industry Service Household Transport Agric. Constr. Mining Manufact. Passenger Freight Materials Equipment End-use Motive power (track, conveyer, motor, ) Non-durables Thermal use (process, heating,.) Miscell. Miscell. Electricity specific use (conditioner,light,, ) Category of final energy Motor Fuel Fossil Fuel Electr icity District Heat Soft Solar Tradi- tiona

12 End-Use Model Methodology (Cont d) The set of social, economic and technical factors which influence each category of end use energy demand is identified The development scenarios of social, economic and technical factors are being constructed Evaluation of the energy demand is performed resulting from each scenario

13 Energy Chain Concept Shifts in Demography Structural Changes in Economy Improvements in life style Socio Economic Needs Progress in Technology Useful Energy Needs Final Energy Demand

14 Approach for medium and long term energy demand forecast in Inogate Countries Bottom up scenario end-use models are the most appropriate for medium and long term analysis and energy demand forecast. They are able to: capture explicitly various specifics consider the diversity of actual processes and technologies of energy use include rural-urban divide and informal activities capture structural changes and new technological developments Through the different scenarios these models try to capture different development trajectories and the influences of various policies implementation.

15 Generic Equation for Calculation of Energy Demand Forecast ED FY = (ED/DP) BY * DP FY * CH FY Energy Demand in Future year Driving Parameter in Future year Specific Energy Demand per unit of Driving Parameter in Base year Coefficient to reflect evolution of Specific Energy Demand per unit of Driving Parameter

16 Generic Equation for Calculation of Energy Demand Forecast (Cont d) Driving Parameters: VA by industry; T-km transported Coefficient of changes Electricity per dwelling Non-thermal electricity per VA P-km transported Service floor area 1 Number of dwellings Fuel per 100 km

17 Conversion of Energy Demand in terms of Useful to Final ED Final = (1/ Eff) * PEN * ED Useful Fossil Fuel Boiler 30 % Electricity Electric Heater 70 % 100 % Process Heat

18 GDP Structure Total G D P AGRIC. CONSTR MINING MANUF ENERGY SERVICE Basic Materials Machinery Equipment Non- Durables Miscellan. VA SEC = GDP * FRACTION SEC

19 Sub-sectors Energy Demand by Sectors: INDUSTRY Materials Equipm. Nondurabl. Miscel. Agric. Constr. Mining End-use Specific Use of Electricity Heat for Thermal Use Motive Motive Power Power Category of Final Energy Feedstock Electricity Heat Pump Heat from Cogener. Motor Fuel District Heat Solar System Fossil Fuels Traditional

20 Energy Demand by Sectors: TRANSPORT Sub-sectors Passenger Urban Passenger Intercity Freight Local Freight Long dist. Miscellaneous End-use Cars Public Public Transport Transport Cars Planes Buses Trains Trucks Trucks Miscell. Barges Pipelines Trains Category of Final Energy Coal Electricity Motor Fuel

21 Energy Demand by Sectors: SERVICE Sub-sectors Service sector End-use Specific Use of Electricity Air Conditioners Heat for Thermal Use Category of Final Energy Electricity Heat Pump District Heat Fossil Fuels Solar System Non- Commercial

22 Energy Demand by Sectors: HOUSEHOLD Sub-sectors Residential sector End-use Specific Use of Electricity Air Conditioners Space Heating Water Heating Cooking Category of Final Energy Electricity Heat Pump District Heat Fossil Fuels Solar System Non- Commercial

23 Content of Input Data Economy Demography Life Style Technology GDP GDP growth rate Fractions of sectors Population Growth rate Urbanization Labor Force Household size Mobility Car ownership Electrification Energy intensity Efficiency Mileage Penetrations Transport modes

24 Output - Final Energy Demand Energy Years of study

25 Output Results Final Energy Demand 2000 By sectors Industry Transport Service Household 2030 Elect ricity Fossil Fuel Motor Fuel District Heat By category of final energy Soft Solar Noncommercial

26 General Steps in Scenario Constructing CAREFULLY DEFINE OBJECTIVES OF STUDY SPECIFY TIME HORIZON AND INTERMEDIATE REFERENCE YEARS BUILT UP A HIERARCHICAL STRUCTURE OF THE SCENARIO VARIABLES WRITE A QUALITATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE SCENARIOS QUANTIFY SCENARIO VARIABLES AND PREPARE INPUT DATA

27 Execution of the Study Execution of MAED study involves the following phases: Reconstruction of the energy consumption in the base year - total energy consumption by sectors, by end-use and by fuels Establishing scenarios of economic, social and technological development Analysis of energy demand forecast arising from the scenarios

28 Demografy 8,0 1,3 X 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,

29 USD 2000/ cap BDP per capita Austria Estonia France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Malta Netherlands Portugal Russian Federation Spain United Kingdom Albania MNE Bosna i Hercegovina HRV KYR

30 GDP 3,7 X

31 Final energy consumption in , Yгли Hефтепр одукты Газ природн ый Электроэ нергия Теплоэне ргия Топливо древесно е Всего ТЭР Coal Petroleum Natural Elecricity Disrict Firewood TOTAL 2012 PJ Products Gas Heating Конечное потребление энергииfinal consumption 27,5 66,3 8,9 39,4 10,3 12,6 165,0 Жилой сектор Households 13,4 0,8 3,7 22,2 7,8 12,6 60,5 Сектор промышленности Industry 11,8 1,4 4,4 7,2 0,6 0,0 25,4 Сельское хозяйство/лесоводство Agriculture 0,0 3,1 0,1 0,8 0,0 0,0 3,9 Транспортный сектор Transport 0,0 55,6 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 55,6 Коммерческие и коммунальные у Services 2,3 2,1 0,7 9,2 1,9 0,0 16,2 Конечное потребление для неэнерnon-energy use 0,0 3,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 3,4

32 The intensity of electricity consumption in industry

33 The intensity of heat consumption in industry

34 Final energy demand in Industry 3,1 X 3 X 2,9 X

35 Ton-kilometers per capita in Kyrgyzstan and European countries

36 Persons per car in Kyrgyzstan and European countries

37 Final energy demand in Transportation sector 2,5 X

38 Household size in the Kyrgyzstan and European countries

39 Average residential floor area in Kyrgyzstan and European countries

40 Heat losses in Kyrgyzstan and European countries

41 Non-heating electricity consumption per household in Kyrgyzstan and European countries

42 Useful energy demand in Household sector 2,4 X

43 Total final energy demand in Household sector 2,5 X 2,2 X

44 Electricity intensity in services

45 Heat intensity in services

46 Final energy demand in Service sector 2,2 X

47 Total final energy demand 2,5 X

48 Final energy demand by sector

49 Damir Pešut Senior Expert, Energy Statistics INOGATE Technical Secretariat and Integrated Programme in support of the Baku Initiative and the Eastern Partnership energy objectives