Energy Efficiency Indicators in Thailand

Transcription

1 Energy Efficiency Indicators in Thailand Dr. Milou Beerepoot Director GIZ Energy Efficiency Programme Thailand Page 1 Content Background to development of Energy Efficiency Indicators in Thailand Process of Energy Efficiency Indicator development Results of Energy Efficiency Indicators in Thailand Page 2 1

2 Energy efficiency in ASEAN: high potential low cost Additional investment in energy efficiency compared with fuel savings in the Efficient ASEAN Scenario, (IEA, 2013) Investment Fuel savings Transport Buildings Industry In the ASEAN region, energy efficiency potentials are high and large savings are possible at low costs Page 3 Energy intensities in ASEAN (APERC, 2013) APERC (2013) forecasts decline in energy intensity at a rate of 2.5% per year in next decades, faster than decline of energy intensity by 1.4% between 1990 and 2009 (improvements in technology driven by market forces and impacts of government policies promoting EE) Thailand Energy Intensity development: slow decrease past ten years Page 4 2

3 Importance of energy efficiency in Thailand Net oil and gas import dependency in selected ASEAN countries (IEA, 2013) Thailand faces highest energy security vulnerability in ASEAN region: Thai Ministry of Energy developed strong Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency strategies: Energy Efficiency Plan Page 5 Thailand Energy Efficiency Strategy Thailand s long term energy efficiency strategy is based on reducing Energy Intensity Page 6 3

4 Why Energy Efficiency Indicators? Energy Intensity in Thailand Improve understanding where energy productivity and energy efficiency is changing Energy Efficiency Indicators to help understand development and focus energy efficiency policy measures Page 7 Why Energy Efficiency Indicators? Development of Energy Efficiency Indicators started in 2013, using publicly available data on all three levels of the EEI pyramid Page 8 4

5 EEI development process Thailand GIZ works with MoE to support Energy Efficiency Strategy Starting point: main statistical offices of Ministry of Energy (statistical office of Energy Policy Planning Office/EPPO and Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency/DEDE) Local data consultant to collect publicly available energy and economic data from: - Energy data: EPPO, DEDE and Energy Regulatory Committee - Economic and physical data: National Statistic Office (NSO), National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), Office of Industrial Economics (OIE) and some specific data from Tourism Authority Thailand (TAT), Department of Land Transportation (DLT) Development of EEI guided by Enerdata (France) Page 9 EEI development process Thailand Three phases of EEI development: 1. Energy and economic/physical data availability analysis, including stakeholder workshop: Thailand has good availability of required energy and economic/physical data although some challenges exist in different versions of ISIC classification. 2. EEI development in a collaboration between MoE statistical offices, local consultant and international consultant (Enerdata), including three seminars to discuss (interim) results 3. EEI training for staff of the EPPO and DEDE statistical offices as well as other energy agencies and university staff Page 10 5

6 Four end use sectors Energy Efficiency Indicators are currently available in a database at EPPO/DEDE, covering four end use sectors: Industry Services sector Households Transport Page 11 Industry sector Page 12 6

7 Industry trend of Energy Intensity 1990=100 Energy consumption and value added in industry in Thailand energy consumption value added energy intensity Since 2004 the energy intensity of industry decreased by 1.2% per year Page 13 Industry explaining the trend of Energy Intensity -1.2% -0.1% Thai data set allows decomposition of decrease (by 1.2% per year) Without changes in the industry, energy intensity would have decreased by around 0,1% per year: energy efficiency Changes in the industry sector (i.e. less energy intensive industry), contributed to decrease energy intensity by 1.1% per year: structural effects (more electronic and automobile industry) Page 14 7

8 Services sector Page 15 Services sector trend of Energy Intensity 8% 6% Trends in the electricity intensity of services in Thailand electricity intensity %/year 4% 2% 0% -2% Until 1998, the electricity intensity in service sector increased by 7.5% /yr Between 2000 to 2008, electricity intensity increased around 2% per year Since 2008 there s a reverse trend with a slight decrease of the electricity intensity, which may reflect the impact of energy efficiency Page 16 8

9 Services sector trend of SEC Specific electricity consumption by main 2 digits sub sector in services in Thailand kwh/employee 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Health Wholesale and retail trade Hotels, restaurants Hotels/restaurants and health sector have similar level of SEC (electricity consumption per employee) and increasing trends Increase in SEC in the health sub sector is developing slower than increase in hotels and trade (health sector around 1.5% per year compared to 4-5% per year for hotels and trade) Page 17 Household sector Page 18 9

10 Households trend in Energy Intensity Trends in energy consumption, private consumption, and electricity intensity 6% 4% %/year 2% 0% -2% electricity consumption private consumption electricity intensity Thailand has high and regular growth of the electricity consumption (over 5%/year), in every period Progression in line with the increase in household income (private consumption) until 2006, but twice higher since 2006; Electricity intensity stable until 2006 but increasing afterwards. Page 19 Households Decomposition variation AC Decomposition of the electricity consumption variation for AC between 2001 and 2013 GWh Consumption variation = + + demographic effect equipement ownership effect Energy savings effect Between 2001 and 2013, the consumption of households for Air Conditioning (AC) increased by around 1800 GWh. Most of this variation is due to the increasing ownership of AC, from 11% to 24% of households; this would have increased consumption by 3400 GWh ( equipment ownership effect ) More efficient AC contributed to reduce consumption increase by 1900 GWh Page 20 10

11 Transport sector Page 21 Transport Energy Intensity Energy consumption trends in transport, GDP and transport intensity: Thailand } decoupling GDP Transport consumption Transport intensity Since 2005, transport consumption has increased twice slower than GDP, resulting in a decrease in the transport intensity of 1.9% per year and representing a saving of 4,400 ktoe Page 22 11

12 Road transport - SEC Specific consumption of road vehicles in Thailand consumption per vehicle Energy Efficiency Indicator Consumption per car equivalent } Effect of change in the composition of the vehicle stock The SEC of road transport per vehicle decreased by 0.8%/year since 2006 The SEC of road transport per car equivalent decreased twice more than the consumption per vehicle (1.5%/year compared to 0.8%/year) Conclusion: since 2006, growth of the number of heavy vehicles has been larger than growth of light vehicles 23 Page 23 EEI development: next steps The Energy Efficiency Indicator database was handed over to the statistical offices of EPPO and DEDE for further use and maintenance Next steps in EEI development in Thailand should focus on further training and understanding of continued updating of the Energy Efficiency Indicators, especially with Designated Facilities data DEDE has already used EEI in the annual EE Thailand report EPPO would like to use EEI in regular press reports Thailand experience can be used in expanding EEI development in the region Continued dialogue with regional partners about EEI development Page 24 12

13 More info (also Building Energy Code, ESCO s, EERS, NAMA development and more): Page 25 13