Overview and Background of the Multi-scale Integrated Model of Ecosystem Services ( MIMES)

Transcription

1 Overview and Background of the Multi-scale Integrated Model of Ecosystem Services ( MIMES) Roelof Boumans - AFORDable Futures, LLC http: ESP Wageningen The Netherlands. October 4 20

2 The Goal of MIMES: D3 Create a modeling tool which can incorporate stakeholder input and biophysical data sets for valuation of ecosystem services and decision-making: Simulate ecosystems and Socio-Economic systems in space Simulate these systems over time D4 Simulate the interactions between these systems through coupling

3 Slaid 2 D3 REDUNDANT? "dynamic, systems" and "Spatial Dynamic" D4 WHAT DO WE MEAN BY "HUMAN SYSTEMS"? Dave; 30/07/200 Dave; 30/07/200

4 Acknowledgements

5 IT Project Model Collaborative Databases Data Request Interaction Matrix Data Input Economy Interfaces Simulation Engine Social Models Science Biophysics Industry Indicators Gaming Scenarios Data Managers Policy Subject Experts Controls Information Technology End Users

6 Collaborative work of a cloud server EPA software developers Simulistics The EPA firewall Model Developer Accounts Austin EPA Outreach Model and DataModel and Data Envision Library and Discussions D4EM GUI & Pre-run GUI & PreScenarios run Scenarios ARC-GIS Software Collaborative Project Accounts Fresno Admin Software The EPA firewall Simile Software Developer s EPA decision makers Modeling Collaborative Project Collaborations Communities CDC Other agencies

7 MIMES The Multi-Scale Integrated Model of Ecosystem Services D3

8 Slaid 6 D3 WHAT IS "EARTH ENERGY"? Dave; 30/07/200

9 Ecosystem functions: The capacity of natural processes and components to provide goods and services that satisfy human needs. (de Groot, 992) Ecosystem Services: Valued Ecosystem Functions. R.S. de Groot et al. / Ecological Economics 4 (2002)

10 Ecosystem Economic production production Accounting Framework For Modeling Ecosystem Services Economic Use Ecosystem Use Macro Economics Ecosystem Impacts Ecosystem Services Ecosystem Functions

11 The MOP project

12 The Model Collaborative ECOSYSTEM SERVICES BIOSPHERE Species Populations Habitats Interactions Productivity FOOD RECREATION ENERGY TRANSPORT CONSERVATION Dynamic, spatial, knowledge-driven ANTHROPOSPHERE Jobs Cultures Commodity Chains Markets Industries Support Services Demographics

13 A little mind Migrant Species (7) Attributes of Species Attributes of Human Activities BENTHIC HEALTH Resident to Migrant Interactions RESIDENT SPECIES At Life Stage (3) HUMAN ACTIVITIES (3) Economic Productivities Predator Prey Interactions For 23 species Food Sources Study Area Location km2 Grid Cells

14 Spatial Ecosystem Service Production Functions

15 Generated outputs for the ecological non spatial model

16 Scenario Analyses Sand lance biomass Humpback whale biomass Temporal and spatial tradeoff resulting in losses to whale watching revenues when SL fishing is allowed

17 No sand lance fishing April Feb June Sand lance fishing turned on April Feb LOW June HIGH

18 The MIDAS User Interface

19 The EPA Human Health project

20 Cardiovascular risk map Temp f (population demographics) f (decision Scenarios) f (Land use & ecosystem services) Land use sliders

21 Coupling stressors with Human Health Stressor_ID stressors Disease_ID Disease_name Cardiovascular diseases Infectious and parasitic diseases Malignant neoplasm (cancers Respiratory Unintentional injuries Digestive diseases Intente injuries (suicide, war) Neuropsychiatric disorders Diseases of the genitourinary system Nutritional deficiency Perinatal conditions Diabetes mellitus Maternal conditions Congenital abnormalities Endocrine/nutritional disorders Neoplasms other then Malignant Musculoskeletal diseases Skin diseases floods droughts air pollution aero-allergens vector-borne diseases food shortage

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23 Framework is ready for additional links that affect human health and well being Nutrient Dynamics Land Uses Watershed

24 Tools for evaluating alternatives & tradeoffs Ethnicity Age groups 0,4 0,2 0,2 Percent Mortality Percent Mortality 0, 0,08 under 64 years 0,06 0,04 65 years and over 0,02 0, 0,08 0,06 0,04 0, Current 0% Less White 0% More Black Asian Forest cover Income group 0,2 Percent Mortality 0, 0,08 0,06 Yes 0,04 Percent Mortality Ability to Speak English Pacific Islander 0,4 0,35 0,3 0,25 0,2 0,5 0, 0,05 0 No 0,02 0 Current 0% Less Forest Cover 0% More Current 0% Less 0% More American Indian