Climate Change, Shifting Land Use, and Urbanization: Challenges for Water Quality and Quantity

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1 Climate Change, Shifting Land Use, and Urbanization: Challenges for Water Quality and Quantity National Science Foundation Water Sustainability and Climate Program April 2011 March 2016 Chris Kucharik, Agronomy and SAGE, Lead PI Steve Carpenter, Limnology Corinna Gries, Limnology Steve Loheide, Civil & Environmental Engineering Adena Rissman, Forest & Wildlife Ecology Monica Turner, Zoology

2 How will ecosystem services related to freshwater vary and how can they be sustained as climate, land cover and management, the built environment and human demands change? Crops, Freshwater flows, Fish & Wildlife, Recreation etc. Natural Capital Soil Hydrology Vegetation Habitat Biotic Interactions etc. Human Use and Management (social systems) Institutions, incentives, regulations Markets Operators Equipment etc. Changes in Land Cover, Ecosystem heterogeneity, Water infiltration & runoff, Carbon storage, Nutrient flows, Soil fertility, Biota, etc. Ecosystem Services: Food & Fiber Production, Freshwater, Flood Regulation, Nutrient Regulation, Carbon Sequestration, Recreation, Aesthetics, etc.

3 Information Management Education and Outreach New Data, Scenarios and Modeling Institutions, Behavior & Perceptions Integrated Scenarios Quantitative Models & Analyses BioPhysical Field Studies

4 Guiding Questions 1. How do different patterns of land use, land cover, land management, and water resource engineering practices affect the resilience and sensitivity of freshwater ecosystem services under a changing climate? 2. How can regional governance systems for water and land use be made more resilient and adaptive to meet diverse human needs? 3. In what ways are regional human-environment systems resilient and in what ways are they vulnerable to potential changes in climate and freshwaters?

5 Study System and Approach Yahara Watershed, including Madison and the 5 lakes Integrative scenarios of watershed development Analyses of water and land use governance in the region Scenarios of land cover and management practices, and climate scenarios Water, C, N, P flows using Agro-IBIS and THMB models based on new field data Water and P flows to lakes, water quality implications

6 Rissman - linking social and ecological systems in Yahara Watershed 1) How are regional governance systems organized to manage water and land use, and how do they adapt to changing environmental conditions? How might future changes require adaptation? 2) What strategies have actors deployed to intervene in water and land management systems to improve environmental quality and enhance ecosystem services? What strategies might serve as effective, efficient, and equitable in the future?

7 Regional governance system Role of science in ecosystem management, decisionmaking Spatial and temporal patterns in conservation interventions Resource user decisions System Individual

8 Field Research Sites for soils, hydrology sampling: Arlington Agricultural Research Station Waunakee Marsh Cherokee Marsh UW Arboretum Residential

9 Natural Areas: Wetlands, Prairie, Forest Residential: High & Low Density Turfgrass Kucharik residence, Token Creek

10 Bioenergy Cropping Systems 8 systems x 5 replicate blocks - Established 2008 Arlington Agricultural Research Station (UW) Rep 3 Rep 2 Rep 5 Rep 1 Rep 4

11 Novel Production Systems of the Yahara Watershed: Current/Future High Input, Low Diversity Model Systems Continuous Corn Corn-Soybean-Canola Monoculture switchgrass Switchgrass - Legumes Poplars Low Input, High Diversity Early successional Native prairie

12 Field Work: Ecohydrology / Water Quality Arlington: TDR: 7 depths Temp: 8 depths Periodic measurements of all plots on block one Lysimeters installed below a meter (nitrate leaching) 12

13 Agro-IBIS Model Simulations Urban Heat Island Study Network of meteorological instrumentation across Dane County Determine the influence of the city on temperature patterns, and energy and water cycling compared to rural lands Collaboration with MGE, Alliant Energy, municipalities

14 Outreach and Education Water Walk along Lake Mendota shoreline, in collaboration with Lakeshore Nature Preserve. Podcasts; link to web; feedback by users Partnership with Edgewood College graduate certificate program in Sustainability Leadership (Jim Lorman) Interactive scenarios planning process, including public meetings, interviews, outreach Wisconsin Public Television In Wisconsin segments New 2-semester interdisciplinary graduate seminar on Integrated Watershed Assessment, focusing on the Yahara

15 Update First field season, summer 2011 Staff, post docs, and graduate student teams are in place and beginning research Initiation of scenario process (meetings, interviews) spring/summer

16 What questions do you have? What research questions would you like to see addressed on the future of conservation and ecosystem services in the changing Yahara Watershed? We ll compile your questions and put them online