Bob McKane U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Western Ecology Division Corvallis, Oregon Evergreen State College May 23, 2013
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1 Bob McKane U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Western Ecology Division Corvallis, Oregon Evergreen State College May 23, 2013
2 Ecosystem Services Research Program Outline 1. What is an ecosystem service? 2. Modeling ecosystem services and tradeoffs for alternative land use decisions 3. Decision support for assisting communities seeking sustainable futures 4. Importance of computer science in environmental decision making 2
3 Ecosystem Services Research Program Ecosystem services are the benefits people obtain from natural and managed ecosystems Four categories: 1. Provisioning services, such as production of food, fiber & water 2. Regulating services, such as the control of climate & disease 3. Cultural services, such as spiritual and recreational benefits 4. Supporting services, such as cycling of water & nutrients Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
4 The Pacific Northwest is a region of diverse and highly valued natural resources that provide a variety of ecosystem services vital to society s well-being 4 U.S. Forest Service
5 Oregon Dept. of Energy Allison Jones 5
6 Oregon Dept. of Energy Can these and other services be managed sustainably? To what extent does Allison emphasizing Jones one service result in trade-offs with others? 6
7 Timber Harvest (MBF) Year 7
8 Most ecosystem services are declining globally 8 Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
9 The global value of ecosystem services is estimated to be about $33 trillion per year. Global gross national product is about $18 trillion per year. 9
10 Problem Statement & Research Objective Communities need comprehensive approaches for meeting present needs without compromising the ability of society and the environment to meet the economic, social and environmental needs of future generations. Our goal is to produce & demonstrate decision support tools for quantifying the production and value of ecosystem goods and services for achieving sustainable & healthy communities. 10
11 Premise: provisioning services are strongly regulated by hydrological & biogeochemical processes (supporting services) that interact across multiple scales Nitrogen uptake Litterfall SOM formation Decomposition Nitrification Denitrification Etc. Etc. Land Use and Land Cover Watershed-scale processes snobear.colorado.edu/introhydro/hydro.gif Hillslope-scale processes 11 Plot-scale processes
12 VELMA Eco-Hydrological Model Abdelnour, Stieglitz, Pan & McKane, 2011 Abdelnour, McKane, Stieglitz & Pan, 2013 C-N-H 2 O Interactions Bedrock Bedrock Interaction of hydrological & biogeochemical processes: Hydrological: streamflow, ET, vertical & lateral flow, Biogeochemical: plant & soil C and N dynamics, production & transport of NH 4, NO 3, DON, DOC, etc. Drivers: daily temperature, precip and disturbances (fire, harvest, fertilization ) 12
13 VELMA Eco-Hydrological Model Abdelnour, Stieglitz, Pan & McKane, 2011 Abdelnour, McKane, Stieglitz & Pan, 2013 C-N-H 2 O Interactions 13 Bedrock Bedrock Changes in key ecosystem services: water quality & quantity regulation food & fiber production greenhouse gas regulation (CO 2, N 2 O, NO x ) carbon sequestration regulation of nitrogen sources & sinks biodiversity (links to fish & wildlife models)
14 ecosystems.mbl.edu/arc Broad Applicability Arctic LTER Hövsgöl LTER, Mongolia Alsea Watershed Hubbard Brook LTER andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu HJ Andrews LTER Konza Prairie LTER Chesapeake Bay
15 VELMA demonstration of forest harvest effects on multiple ecosystem services Willamette River Basin 12,000 square miles HJ Andrews Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site Long-term monitoring data since 1950s: Climate (temperature, precipitation ) Stream flow & chemistry Forest biomass and productivity Disturbance history 40+ years of experimental data describing hydrological & ecological responses to harvest and climate. 15
16 HJ Andrews LTER site WS-07 WS-06 WS-08 HJ Andrews Basin, 64 km 2 Ridge elev 1630 m WS10 Outlet Basin Outlet WS-01 WS-02 WS-03 Mack Creek Lake elev 410 m km 12
17 17 WS10 streamflow validation
18 18 Clearcut WS10 streamflow validation
19 Δ Streamflow (mm/yr) WS10: change in streamflow due to clearcutting ~30% ~30% increase in annual streamflow annual increase in streamflow Clearcut
20 WS10 stream chemistry validation DOC Losses (mgc/m2 d) DIN Losses (mgn/m 2 d) Year 1997 Year
21 21 WS10 stream chemistry validation DOC Losses (mgc/m2 d) DIN Losses (mgn/m 2 d) R 2 = 0.86 Simulated DIN Losses Observed DIN Losses Year 1997 R 2 = 0.80 Simulated DON Losses Observed DON Losses Year 2004 R 2 = 0.81 Simulated DOC Losses Observed DOC Losses
22 Hydrologic validation across multiple spatial scales October 28, 1995 WS10 64 km 2 HJA Basin Soil Saturation (%) Precipitation Stream Discharge Stream chemistry (observed data available soon) 22
23 Changes in hillslope connectivity and flushing November 12, 1995 Soil Saturation (%) Streamflow increases only after hillslopes saturate leading to greater nutrient flushing 23
24 Simulated Carbon Stocks Present-day land cover, 64 km 2 basin Plant Carbon (kgc/m 2 ) Soil Carbon (kgc/m 2 ) 24
25 Ecosystem services demo: three alternative management scenarios for 64 km 2 HJ Andrews Basin No Harvest 100% Clearcut Present-Day Land Cover (maintain pre-european (hypothetical) (~45% harvested, 55% old-growth) old-growth landscape) 25
26 26 Goal: simulate trade-offs among multiple ecosystem services in response to alternative management decisions Trade-offs? ecosystem carbon stocks forest products CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, NO x knowledge.allianz.com habitat biodiversity Trade-offs?
27 Normalized biophysical value Simulated ecosystem service trade-offs for three alternative forest management scenarios 64 km 2 HJ Andrews Basin Timber Production Ecosystem Carbon Stocks Carbon Sequestration (+ or ) GH Gas Sink (+) or Source ( ) Stream Discharge Stream flow Stream Nitrogen Load Biodiversity (Fish & Wildlife) Scenario 1: No Harvest (maintain pre-european old-growth landscape) Scenario 2: 100% Clearcut (results for 1 st five yr after hypothetical cut) Scenario 3: Present Land Cover (45% clear cut, 55% old-growth) 27 McKane et al. in prep
28 Incorporate VELMA in decision support framework that can (1) help land managers & policymakers define alternative future decision scenarios (2) Identify sustainable land use practices that balance environmental, economic and social criteria Client-defined Decision Scenarios (land use, climate policies, etc) Ecosystem Services & Tradeoffs for 3 Alternative Land Use Scenarios Benefit Functions 28 Human Well-Being (environmental, economic and social)
29 ENVISION Decision Support Tool John Bolte, Oregon State University Landscape GIS Environmental Models: Ecohydrology, Wildlife, Fish 29
30 30 John Bolte
31 Biogeochemistry: Bob McKane, EPA VELMA Modeling Team Hydrology: Marc Stieglitz, Georgia Tech Alex Abdelnour, Georgia Tech (McKinsey & Company) Feifei Pan, University of North Texas Economics: Mike Papenfus, EPA Computer Science: Allen Brookes, EPA Kevin Djang, CSC 31
32 Biogeochemistry: Bob McKane, EPA VELMA Modeling Team Hydrology: Marc Stieglitz, Georgia Tech Alex Abdelnour, Georgia Tech (McKinsey & Company) Feifei Pan, University of North Texas Economics: Mike Papenfus, EPA Computer Science: Allen Brookes, EPA Kevin Djang, CSC 31
33 Computer science is essential to state-of-art environmental assessments 1) Computational efficiency HJ Andrews 64 km 2 = 71,000 VELMA pixels (30x30 meter) ~100 differential equations solved per pixel per simulated day 71,000 X 100 = 7.1 million equations per day ~2.6 billion equations per simulated year 32
34 Computer science is essential to state-of-art environmental assessments 1) Computational efficiency HJ Andrews JAVA Eclipse 64 km 2 = 71,000 VELMA pixels (30x30 meter) ~100 differential equations solved per pixel per simulated day 71,000 X 100 = 7.1 million equations per day ~2.6 billion equations per simulated year VELMA requires <1 hour of real time to simulate 1 year for HJ Andrews 33
35 Computer science is essential to state-of-art environmental assessments 2) Data visualization VELMA generates ~1 GB of output for HJ Andrews multi-century simulations... very difficult to interpret & communicate results without visualization tools! 34
36 Computer science is essential to state-of-art environmental assessments 2) Data visualization VELMA generates ~1 GB of output for HJ Andrews multi-century simulations very difficult to interpret & communicate results without visualization tools! Line charts & bar graphs 2D spatial-temporal displays (onthe-fly visualization for calibration) 3D spatial-temporal displays (e.g., VISTAS post-simulation visualization) 35
37 VISTAS visualization software Dr. Judy Cushing & collaborators 36
38 Thanks!
39
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