Integrated Modeling: ENVISION
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1 Integrated Modeling: ENVISION Cimarron River Watershed Gehendra Kharel Oklahoma State University Cimarron River Watershed Research and Extension Symposium November 17,
2 Research, Data Archiving, Integration & Modeling Social & Ecological Observatory OK Mesonet M-SISNet Climate Center Experimental Watersheds Databases Socioeconomic Future climate Soil moisture Watersheds I N T E G R A T I O N Natural System Cyberinfrastructure Human System Decision Support Tools and Systems 2
3 Cimarron River Watershed NLCD 2011 NASS CDL 2011 Cimarron: 49,379 km 2 Cimarron (OK):18,240 km : 6, 000 km 2 cropland lost to grass, range and urban areas Since 1999: grassland encroached by woody plants (red cedar) Reduced streamflow (Zou et al. 2015) 3
4 Cimarron River Watershed Lower Cimarron Eagle Chief Wetland Area: 132 km 2 Ecological Portfolio & Wetlands 8 Level IV ecoregions 3 Level III ecoregions 1000s of depressional wetlands The Nature Conservancy priority area 4,913 km 2 (26.9% of the CRW) Area: 717 km 2 Lower Cimarron Skeleton Wetland Area: 155 km 2 Lower Cimarron Wetland Area: 155 km 2 4
5 Cimarron River Watershed Research Question How do extreme climate events affect the vulnerability of socio-ecological systems in the Cimarron River Watershed? 5
6 ENVISION Agent-based modeling platform Spatially and temporally distributed Incorporates physical, bio-physical, social models Compare future scenarios based on stakeholder interests Developed by Dr. John Bolte and his team at the Oregon State University Applications (Oregon, Ontario, Idaho) Interaction between aquatic ecosystems and land development Climate change impacts on economically valuable forests Urban and suburban landscape planning Impact of growth (economic & population) & climate change on water availability 6
7 ENVISION Application Development Goals (Economic Services, Ecosystem Services, Sociocultural Services) Provide a common frame of reference for actors, policies and landscape productions Landscapes 7
8 Model Development Cimarron River Watershed Elevation NHD stream network SSURGO soil database Impervious land percent GAP land use land cover USDA NASS 2011 crop layer Population density (2010 census) OK Vegetation Classification Project NLCD 2011 land use land cover map The Nature Conservancy Ecological Portfolio Integrated Decision Units: 29,751 Avg area: 0.55 km 2 Max area: 4.84 km 2 Min area: 0.22 km 2 8
9 Cimarron River Watershed Model Development Farmland class: prime farmland Runoff potential: medium Erodibility class: class 1 Crop productivity Index: 0.22 Drought vulnerable: yes Potential wetland: no Area: 1.4 sq. km Pop. Density: 56/sq.km TNC Critical Area: yes Impervious: < 1 % Average Elevation: 296 m 9
10 Model Development Cimarron River Watershed Progress: Next Steps: Specify actor typology Develop policies Flow plug-in for hydrological component: o Calibration and validation phase Land-use transitions: o State-and-transition model Cimarron Watershed Symposium o Under development o Stakeholder engagement Scenarios: o Identify strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats o Intensive agriculture o Grassland to cropland conversion o Woodland encroachment o Wetlands conservation o Projected climate scenarios (CMIP-5 GCMs) 10
11 Model Development Cimarron River Watershed 11
12 Cimarron Watershed Model Development Drivers of Change Climate Variability, Extremes Data: CMIP-5 projections System Vulnerability Human behavior Activities, Responses, Decisions Data: Survey, demographics Policies Enhancing, Preventive, Mitigating Data: farm bill, state, local Land use Modifications, Management Data: NLCD, NASS, GAP, NWI Deliverables Policy tools Decision support system Vulnerability maps and database Alternative management strategies 12
13 Cimarron Watershed Model Development e.g., climate change, watershed activities including land use and management, demographics Stressor Impacts (SI) The extent to which SI impacts can be withstood and/or mitigated through management options and solutions Adaptive Capacity (AC) State A1 Baseline Scenario (Current State) Scenario A Scenario B State A State B + Management 1 Management 2 Management 3 State A2 State A3 State B1 System Resiliency & Vulnerability State B2 State B3 13
14 Integrated Modelling: Envision Cimarron River Watershed Gehendra Kharel Oklahoma State University Thank You! Cimarron River Watershed Research and Extension Symposium November 17,
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