Approved baseline and monitoring methodology AM0031. Baseline Methodology for Bus Rapid Transit Projects

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1 Approved baseline and monitoring methodolog AM0031 Baseline Methodolog for Bus Rapid Transit Projects I. SOURCE, DEFINITIONS AND APPLICABILITY Sources This baseline methodolog is based on the proposals from the following proposed methodolog: NM0105-rev Baseline Methodolog for Bus Rapid Transit Projects, whose baseline methodolog was developed b Gruetter consulting. This methodolog also refers to the latest approved version of the following tool(s): Tool for the demonstration and assessment of additionalit ; Tool to calculate project, baseline and/or leakage emissions from electricit consumption. For more information regarding the proposed new methodologies and the tools as well as their consideration b the Executive Board please refer to < Selected approach from paragraph 48 of the CDM modalities and procedures Existing actual or historical emissions, as applicable. Applicabilit The methodolog is applicable to project activities that reduce emissions through the construction and operation of a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) sstem for urban road based transport. The methodolog is also applicable for extensions or expansions of existing BRT sstems (adding new routes and lines). The following applicabilit conditions appl: The project has a clear plan to reduce existing public transport capacities either through scrapping, permit restrictions, economic instruments or other means and replacing them b a BRT sstem; Local regulations do not constrain the establishment or expansion of a BRT sstem; An fuels including (liquified) gaseous fuels or biofuel blends, as well as electricit, can be used in the baseline or project case. The following conditions 1 appl: o In the case of gaseous fossil fuels, the methodolog is applicable if equal or more gaseous fossil fuels are used in the baseline scenario than in the project activit. The methodolog is not applicable in its current form if more gaseous fossil fuel is used in the project activit compared to the baseline scenario; No provisions to calculate upstream emissions from the production of the fuels are provided in order to keep the methodolog simple. Therefore, in order to ensure that the calculated emission reductions are conservative, this aplicabilit condition aims to limit the use of the methodolog to cases where the upstream emissions under the project activit are likel to be equal or lower than in the baseline scenario. Note that other methodologies involving fuel switch situations usuall require the consideration of upstream emissions. Project proponents wishing to consider a higher consumption of gaseous fuels in the project activit than in the baseline ma propose a revision of this methodolog b adding the relevant upstream emission terms that 1/49

2 o In the case of biofuels, project buses must use the same biofuel blend (same percentage of biofuel) as commonl used b conventional comparable 3 urban buses in the countr i.e. the methodolog is not applicable if project buses use higher or lower blends of biofuels than those used b conventional buses. In addition, the project busses shall not use a significantl higher biofuel blend than cars and taxis; 2 The fuel(s) used in the baseline and/or project case are unblended 4 gasoline, diesel, LNG or CNG. Projects using biofuels either in the baseline or project case are not eligible to use this methodolog; 5 The project activit BRT sstem is road-based. The baseline public transport sstem and other public transport options are road- or rail-based (the methodolog excludes air and waterbased sstems from analsis). However the methodolog is not applicable if the project activit BRT sstem replaces an urban rail-based Mass Rapid Transit Sstem (MRTS), i.e. if the MRTS stops operating after project implementation due to the project activit; The BRT sstem partiall or full replaces a traditional public transport sstem in a given cit. The methodolog cannot be used for BRT sstems in areas where currentl no public transport is available; The methodolog is applicable if the analsis of possible baseline scenario alternatives leads to the result that a continuation of the current public transport sstem is the scenario that reasonabl represents the anthropogenic emissions b sources of greenhouse gases (GHG) that would occur in the absence of the proposed project activit (i.e. the baseline scenario). This baseline methodolog shall be used in conjunction with the approved monitoring methodolog AM0031 (Monitoring methodolog for Bus Rapid Transit project). Summar description Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) is a bus-based mass transit sstem that delivers fast, comfortable, and costeffective urban mobilit. A BRT sstem can reduce greenhouse gas emissions via: Improved fuel-use efficienc through new and larger buses; Mode switching due to the availabilit of a more efficient and attractive public transport sstem; Load increase b having a centrall managed organisation dispatching vehicles; Potentiall a fuel switch to low carbon fuels. BRT sstems replace conventional public transport sstems. The new bus sstem transports passengers who, in absence of the project, would have used the conventional public transport sstem or other modes of transport such as passenger cars. A reduction or retirement of some of the a fuel switch towards gaseous fuels entails, taken e.g. from ACM0009. Similarl, project proponents wishing to consider project busses with a higher biofuel blend ma propose a revision of this methodolog based on future EB guidance on biofuels use. Comparable means of the same fuel tpe e.g. project buses using diesel are compared with conventional buses using diesel etc. The comparison is made for each ear of monitoring based on official fuels sold. The term commonl used refers to the majorit of units. Less than 3 % fuel additive is permitted. Project participants wishing to consider biofuels ma propose a revision to this methodolog. 2/49

3 conventional buses through scrapping, reduction of permits 6 or market-based instruments 7 is thus an integral part of this methodolog. II. BASELINE METHODOLOGY PROCEDURE Project Boundar The project boundar is defined b the passenger trips completed on the BRT project that is part of the public and private road-based passenger transport sector of the cit in which the project is realized. The phsical delineation is determined b the outreach of the new BRT or public or private urban passenger transport project. In case of using electricit from an interconnected grid or captive power plant for the propulsion of the transport sstems included in the project boundar, the project boundar also includes the power plants connected phsicall to the electricit sstem that suppl power to those transport sstems. Please refer to Tool to calculate baseline, project and/or leakage emissions from electricit consumption. Emission sources not considered in the Methodolog Emissions caused b remaining transport sstem (taxis, cars, conventional public transport Emissions caused b freight, ship, rail and air transport Emission sources considered in the Methodolog Upstream emissions included as leakage Construction emissions caused b the project Reduced life-span of buses due to scrappage Well-to-tank emissions of fuels used b project and baseline Direct project and baseline emissions Emissions caused b passengers transported in the BRT project Downstream emissions included as leakage Congestion change provoked b project resulting in (inter alia): Increased vehicle speed Rebound effect Other emissions included as leakage Change of baseline factors monitored during project and included as leakage: Change of load factors of taxis provoked indirectl b project Change of load factor of remaining conventional buses provoked indirectl b project Figure 1: Project Boundar 6 7 Permits to operate certain routes given b the corresponding authorit. Incentives or disincentives; A market based strateg is also to simpl let the rule of suppl and demand work i.e., the reduced demand for conventional non-brt bus transport will automaticall lead to a reduced suppl through less passengers i.e., less income and thus a drop in the profit rate for operating buses. 3/49

4 Table 1: Emissions sources included in or excluded from the project boundar Baseline Project Activit Source Gas Included? Justification / Explanation Mobile source emissions of CO 2 Yes Main source different modes of road transport CH 4 Yes for passengers which use BRT sstem (buses, passenger cars, N 2 O Yes motorccles, taxis) CO 2 Yes Main source BRT bus emissions (feeder and CH 4 Yes trunk routes) N 2 O Yes Identification of the Baseline Scenario Step 1: Identif all options available that meet the same requirement as the proposed project activit Alternatives assessed include, but not limited to: A continuation of the current public transport sstem; The project proposal (BRT sstem) not implemented as a CDM project activit; Rail or water-based sstems; Comprehensive re-organization of the transport sstem. Step 2: Analse all options identified in Step 1 using the latest version of the Tool for the demonstration and assessment of additionalit Step3: If Step 2 results in more than one possible alternative baseline scenario, the most likel baseline scenario is the scenario with the lowest baseline emissions This methodolog is onl applicable if the identified baseline scenario is continuation of the current public transport sstem up to the end of the crediting period. Baseline emissions are those corresponding to existing actual or historical emissions b sources in the baseline scenario and are calculated ex post. The parameter emissions per passenger per trip (or per passenger per km) is taken to measure the efficienc of the current sstem in respect to GHG emissions. Additionalit The additionalit of the project is determined using the latest approved version of the Tool for the demonstration and assessment of additionalit. The following steps are used without repeating the details described in the above mentioned tool: Step 1: Identification of alternatives to the project activit consistent with current laws and regulations. Alternatives included are at minimum a continuation of the current public transport sstem and the BRT sstem proposed as project. All alternatives, which are potentiall viable, are included in the further steps and ma represent the baseline scenario. Step 2: In cases where the BRT project is full privatel financed (including roads, infrastructure etc) or where the public financed component is full repaid on commercial terms through tariffs charged to sstem users the financial analsis as described in the tool under Step 2 can be used. 4/49

5 If the BRT project is financed partiall through public funding, the cost-benefit calculations of the public sector should include external costs and benefits such as the macroeconomic impact of reduced congestion or reduced health costs due to reduced air pollution. The relative comparison shall be made to other transport investment opportunities. Step 3: Barrier analsis including tpical barriers in public transport projects: Financial or investment barriers due to resource constraints of public bodies while having man potential investment opportunities aside from transport such as investment in health, education, social welfare etc; Prevailing practice barriers if such projects are first in its kind in the region or countr; Resistance to change from the existing transport operators and resistance to change from an informal to a formal transport sstem. Transport operators in man countries are a powerful bod and fear reduced profits; Political resistance or political risk to implement continuousl such projects. Urban public transport projects are in general realized in phases. Public authorities however change office and often projects are abandoned after one phase as the political benefit of additional phases is limited and new administrations tend to prefer new projects to reap the related publicit benefits; Technological or organizational barriers e.g., if buses with new technologies (e.g., CNG) are introduced or latter require special fuel (e.g., low-sulphur diesel) or the new transport sstem requires sophisticated management not available currentl. Depending on the project either Step 3 (barrier analsis) or a combination of Step 2 and 3 is undertaken. Where the BRT project is full privatel financed (including roads, infrastructure etc) or where the publicl financed component is full repaid on commercial terms through tariffs charged to sstem users, the project proponent should use both investment analsis and barrier analsis. If the infrastructure is full publicl financed or not being repaid on commercial terms, project proponents ma use a barrier analsis onl. In man BRT sstems onl operational costs excluding infrastructure costs are taken as a basis when calculating the tariffs while the infrastructure is paid through other means (e.g. general government revenues or special fuel taxes). The PDD should indicate the sources of financing for the investment, and whether or not these are repaid on commercial terms. Step 4: Common practice analsis assessing the number of similar projects that exist in comparable project contexts without the CDM. Step 5: Impact of CDM registration Baseline emissions Baseline emissions are estimated using two main steps: (1) Determination of emissions per passenger transported per vehicle categor: This is calculated ex ante, including the usage of a fixed technolog change factor. The baseline emission factor is adapted to potential changes in trip distance and tpe of fuel used b passenger cars if the surves indicate that changes in trip distance or fuel tpe used would lead to lower baseline emission factors; (2) Baseline emissions: are estimated ex post based on the passengers transported b the project and their modal split. Core baseline parameters used for calculating the baseline emission factors are reviewed through an annual surve, with changes onl being applied if the baseline 5/49

6 emissions factors would be lower than the original factor. The sstem operator records passenger numbers. Note: If the project does not generate credits for the modal switch, it need not determine emissions per passenger using passenger cars, taxis or motorccles. The annual modal surve will also not include these categories or questions related directl to these categories (change of trip distance of passenger cars or fuel tpe of passenger cars). The surve will, however, include the categories of public transport, non-motorised transport (NMT), and induced traffic (i.e. categories with emission factors lower than the project, to ensure that emission reductions are not overstated). 1. Determine Vehicle Categories 2. PATH A: Relative Data 2. PATH B: Sectorial Data 2.A.1. Emissions per Kilometer 2.B.1. Emissions per Passenger 2.A.2. Emissions per Passenger 3. Technolog Improvement Factor 4. Change of Baseline Parameters during Project 5. Polic Effects 6. Baseline Emissions Figure 2: Determination of Baseline Emissions Two methodological alternatives or paths can be used to determine the baseline emission per passenger transported: (A) As a function of emissions per kilometre and passengers per kilometre; (B) As a function of sectoral fuel consumptions per vehicle categor and passengers transported. 6/49

7 A mixed approach can also be used i.e., approach A for certain vehicle categories and approach B for others. The criteria for selecting of the approach are data availabilit and data qualit. Note: Alternative B should onl be chosen if the project proponent can ascertain that full consumption data as well as total passenger transported data are consistent (spatial, and vintage) and complete. This shall be verified b the DOE at validation. 1. Determine Vehicle Categories Identif relevant vehicle categories, which include: Buses, differentiating large, medium and small buses, if appropriate; Passenger cars; Taxis; Motorccles. Criteria for identifing the categories are as follows: At a minimum, public transport, non-motorised transport and induced traffic have to be included; Conditions to include categories are that there are reliable data on fuel consumption and load factors; Onl include categories that are relevant for the BRT project. If the project will onl generate credits from public transport without modal switch, then passenger cars, taxis and motorccles need not be included; Differentiate relevant fuel tpes for each categor. Diesel, gasoline and gas (CNG or LPG) are listed separatel if a minimum of 10% of vehicles of the respective categor use such a fuel, while the threshold for zero-emission 8 fuels is minimum 1%. The 10% threshold is justified, as GHG emission differentials between diesel, gasoline and gaseous fuels are less than 20%; If electric vehicles are included in the analsis, their emissions can be calculated using GHG grid factors using AMS.I.D ; In case of a sstem extension the currentl operating sstem is not included as a vehicle categor. 2.A. Calculate Emissions Per Passenger Based on Relative Data 2.A.1. Determine Emissions per Kilometre for Vehicle Categories CO 2 e emissions per kilometre are calculated, fixed ex ante for the project period, based on the consumption of each fuel tpe, the CO 2 e emissions per litre of fuel and the fraction of vehicles using the specific fuel tpe. CO 2 emissions are developed on the basis of the carbon content of the fuel; CH 4 and N 2 O emission factors: CH 4 emissions are a function of the fuel and engine tpe, and an post-combustion controls. N 2 O emissions are technolog based for each fuel tpe, vehicle categor, installed control technologies and local data such as average driving speeds, temperatures, and altitude. The emission factors are transformed into CO 2eq using GWP factors approved b the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC. 8 Zero-emission in the context of operating emissions and not well-to-wheel or life-ccle emissions; this includes hdrogen. Biofuels are excluded. 7/49

8 Two methods are possible to determine the relevant CH 4 and N 2 O emission factors: (1) Local measured emission factors based on a reliable data source to be detailed in the PDD; (2) The pre-determined default value per vehicle categor is used (described later in this section). The default value per vehicle categor is the technolog with the lowest sum of CO 2eq emissions of N 2 O and CH 4. This ensures a conservative approach. Alternative 1 is preferred. However, using the default value is a conservative approach. Using fixed and average values is also justified as CH 4 as well as N 2 O emissions in vehicles account on average for less than 1-2% of total CO 2 e emissions. The default parameters per vehicle categor for CH 4 and N 2 O are presented in the Appendix in gco 2 e per litre of fuel consumed. If electricit is used b vehicles the emissions are calculated based on the latest approved version of the Tool to calculate project, baseline and or leakage emissions from electricit consumption. In case biofuel blends are used the biofuel share is calculated with a CO 2 eq emission factor equal to zero. Formula (1): This equation calculates emissions per km for vehicles of different vehicle categories. EF KM N x, i ( ) i = SEC x i EF CO x + EF CH x + EF N O x (1),, 2, 4, 2, x N i EF KM,i = Transport emissions factor per distance of vehicle categor i (gco 2 e per kilometer driven) SEC x,i = Specific energ consumption of fuel tpe x in vehicle categor i (litre per kilometer) EF CO2,x = CO 2 emission factor for fuel tpe x (gco 2 per litre) EF CH4,x = CH 4 emission factor for fuel tpe x (gco 2 e per litre, based on GWP) EF N2O,x = N 2 O emission factor for fuel tpe x (gco 2 e per litre, based on GWP) N i = Total number of vehicles in categor i N x,i = Number of vehicles in vehicle categor i using fuel tpe x If fewer than 10% of vehicles in a specific vehicle categor are gasoline, diesel, CNG or LPG powered then this respective fuel can be omitted for simplicit purposes. In alternative vehicles the threshold value is less than 1%. Two methodological alternatives are proposed for the fuel consumption data (in order of preference): Alternative 1: Measurement of fuel consumption data using a representative sample for the respective categor and fuel tpe. To ensure a conservative approach the top 20% of the sample is not included in calculations; Alternative 2: Use of fixed values based on the national or international literature. The literature data can either be based on measurements of similar vehicles in comparable surroundings (e.g., from comparable cities of other countries) or ma include identifing the vehicle age and technolog of average vehicles circulating in the project region and then matching this with the most appropriate IPCC default values. The most important prox to 8/49

9 identif vehicle technologies is the average age of vehicles used in the area of influence of the project. To determine if either US or European default factors appl either local vehicle manufacturer information can be used (in the case of having a substantial domestic vehicle motor industr) or source of origin of vehicle imports. A technical improvement factor is thereafter introduced. The technolog improvement factor results in dnamic emission factors for the different units. See Step 3. 2.A.2. Calculate Emissions per Passenger per vehicle Categor This step calculates emission factors showing the emissions per passenger per average trip for each vehicle categor. Formula (2): This equation is used to determine the emissions per passenger transported for passenger cars, taxis or motorccles. All data used is determined ex ante project. A change in the occupanc rate of taxis is registered as leakage of the project. EFKM, i TDi EFP, i = (2) OC i EF P, = Transport emissions factor per passenger before project start, where i = C i (passenger cars), M (motorccles) or T (taxis) (grams per passenger) EF, = Transport emissions factor per distance of categor i (gco 2 e per kilometer driven) KM i OC i = Average vehicle occupanc rate of vehicle categor i 9 (passengers) TD = Average trip distance for vehicle categor i (kilometers) i Formula (3): EF EF DD + EF DD + EF DD KM, Z, S Z, S KM, Z, M Z, M KM, Z, L Z, L P, Z = (3) PZ EF, = Transport emissions factor in buses for before project start (grams per passenger) P Z EF KM, Z, S = Emissions from small buses (gco 2 e per kilometer) DD, = Total distance driven b small buses (kilometer) Z S EF KM, Z, M = Emissions from medium buses (gco 2 e per kilometer) DD, = Total distance driven b medium buses (kilometer) Z M EF KM, Z, L = Emissions from large buses (gco 2 e per kilometer) DD, = Total distance driven b large buses (kilometer) Z L P = Passengers transported b buses in the baseline Z 9 In the case of taxis the driver is not counted and onl passengers are included in the occupanc rate. 9/49

10 The time period for passengers and distance must be equal (e.g., one ear or one month). All data used is determined ex ante project. A change in the occupanc rate of buses is registered as leakage of the project. 2.B. Calculate Emission Factor Based on Sector Data This approach is based on sector fuel consumption data and differentiates fuel consumption per fuel tpe for all different vehicle categories such as identified in the first step. Following conditions appl to using this alternative: A stud on sector fuel consumption separating the vehicle categories is available with a confidence interval of minimum 95% (i.e., maximum error margin of 5%); The geographic region of the project can be separated well; Data for fuel consumption must have the same ear/time period and the same geographic boundaries as data of passengers transported; Data must be cross-checked with total fuel consumption of the region. Formula (4): Calculates the emission factor per passenger for different vehicle categories. EF [ TC ( EF + EF EF )] + x, i CO2, x CH 4, x N 2O, x x P, i = (4) Pi EF P, = Transport emissions factor in vehicle categor i before project start (grams per i passenger) TC, = Total consumption of fuel tpe x b vehicle categor i (litres) x i EF, CO 2 = CO x 2 emission factor for fuel tpe x (gco 2 per litre) EF, CH 4 x = CH 4 emission factor for fuel tpe x (gco 2 e per litre, based on GWP) N 2 O x = N 2 O emission factor for fuel tpe x (gco 2 e per litre, based on GWP) EF, P i = Passengers transported b categor i in the baseline 3. Technological Change Under business as usual conditions emission factors per vehicle categor per fuel tpe ma change due to: Vehicles are replaced with more efficient ones; Vehicles in stock tend to increase emissions based on wear and tear. For simplicit purposes a constant average improvement rate per annum is established per vehicle categor. The improvement rate is applied to each calendar ear. Year 0 is the ear for which specific or sector fuel consumption data was collected or determined. Emissions per vehicle categor are multiplied with the corresponding technolog improvement factor. The default technolog improvement factors per vehicle categor are included in the appendix A. 10/49

11 4. Change of Baseline Parameters during Project crediting period The change of baseline parameters is onl necessar if the project includes a modal-switch (change from passenger cars, motorccles or taxis to BRT). In this case, some parameters used for calculating the baseline emission factors could change over time: The load factor or the number of passengers per vehicle. The load factor is potentiall influenced indirectl b the project. This factor is included in the monitoring of leakage of the project and thus not included in the baseline calculations; The distance driven b passengers using the BRT sstem might change or not be equivalent to the average distance driven used to calculate the baseline emission parameter. This factor is monitored through the surve conducted annuall of passenger using the sstem (see corresponding monitoring methodolog); Tpe of fuel used b passenger cars. This factor is onl relevant for people who have switched from cars to public transport. The annual passenger surve monitors the fuel used b passengers switching from passenger cars to the BRT sstem and adjusts the corresponding baseline emission factor for passenger cars. The methodolog onl takes changes in passenger emission factors into account if these are reduced. Details of the surve used for data on change of trip distances as well as for change of fuel used b passenger cars are included in the monitoring methodolog section. The baseline emissions per passenger trip for taxis, passenger cars and motorccles are adjusted annuall with a correction factor for changing trip distances. (formula 5). Formula (5): CD i, = TD TD i, i (5) CD i, = Correction factor for changing trip distance in categor i for the ear, where i = T (taxis), C (passenger cars) or M (motorccles) TD i = Average trip distance in kilometers in categor i before project start TD, = Average trip distance in kilometers in categor in ear i Note: The adjustment is onl made if TD i. < TD i to ensure a conservative approach Larger distances would increase baseline emissions per passenger trip. The project emissions of larger trip distances are however full recorded as project emissions are based on total fuel consumed. 11/49

12 4.1. Change of Fuel Used b Passenger Cars For passengers that, in absence of the project, would have used a passenger car, the tpe of fuel used b their car is determined via a surve (see Monitoring Methodolog). Equation (1) is used to recalculate the new emission factors for passenger cars. The same threshold values for fuel tpes appl as described in Step 1 (determination of vehicle categories). The applicabilit condition for appling this change in fuel tpe used for passenger cars is: EF KM,C, < EF KM,C. In other words, the baseline emission factor is onl changed if the new emission factor is lower than the original emission factor. Note: This question, and the corresponding adjustment in the emissions factor estimation, is onl included in the surve if modal switch from passenger cars and the associated emission reductions are included in the project. 5. Polic Effects Onl policies with a measurable impact on GHG emissions shall be considered. Project participants need to assess if policies might have effects on various parameters. To remain conservative the full impact monitored is attributed to the polic. 11 All relevant policies and their impact are included in the baseline from the date of their planned implementation. 12 However, broad development strategies and concepts are not considered if the do not have a legall binding character including as minimum an implementation date, enforcement procedures and clear activities. The project proponent shall analse all policies following these steps: (1) Identification of policies with a potential impact on GHG emissions of the current transport sstem; (2) Has the polic been legall adopted with a clear implementation date? If no implementation date is given then the polic is not further considered. If the date is fixed and within the time frame of the project proposed then the polic is included in the analsis; (3) Assess the potential impact of the polic on an of the baseline parameters listed above; (4) Introduce a correction factor if required. The correction factor must be determined to achieve a conservative result. A general equation for introducing polic aspects cannot be stated at the level of a methodolog as this element is project specific. Policies and their implementation data are assessed ex ante. Monitoring shall be carried out on a regular basis for policies affecting parameters of the baseline. This involves: (1) Assessing new and enforced policies, which could significantl affect the modal split of passengers in the project area. This is defined here as policies which expect to change the modal split b 5% or more towards public transport. If several policies, which change the modal split, are enforced during the project s crediting period then the cumulative effect of these policies must be superior to 5 percentage points. This threshold value onl applies to 11 E.g., a new polic to reduce private vehicles will potentiall have an impact on the modal split. The full change of the modal split will be accounted as a result of the polic even though this could also be influenced b other factors e.g. improved suppl of public transport. 12 Policies, which potentiall have an impact, include mainl fuel policies (e.g., compulsor usage of bio-fuel blends), fiscal policies (e.g., differential fuel taxes according to carbon contents), and transport policies (e.g., promotion of Non-Motorized Transport or car restriction policies). 12/49

13 policies affecting the modal split. The expected modal split change is based on calculation or targets realized b the polic proponents (i.e., the ministr or governmental authorit in charge of the polic). If such a polic has been enforced in ear x, a ear where no surve has been carried out, the modal split of the most recent ear prior to that no surve is realized, and the modal split of the ear x-1 is applied to all passengers using the sstem; (2) Assessing new and enforced policies that change the fuel usage of vehicles (either fuel tpe or regulations concerning maximum fuel usage). This potentiall changes the emission factor per distance driven of vehicles; (3) Assessing an other polic which results in a measurable and verifiable manner in a change of a parameter used for calculating baseline emissions such as a compulsor technolog change b establishing and enforcing maximum vehicle ages. Determination of Baseline Emissions The baseline emissions for all passengers transported are calculated. This is differentiated according to the mode of transport, which the person would have used in absence of the project. Passengers transported are determined through the project (activit level of the project). The sstem operator shall report the total amount of passengers transported b the project. Formula (6): ( EF P ) BE = P, i, i. i (6) BE = Baseline emissions in ear (tco 2 e) EF P, i, = Transport emissions factor per passenger in vehicle categor i in ear (grams per passenger) P i. = Passengers transported b the project (BRT) in ear that without the project activit would have used categor i, where i = Z (buses, public transport), T (taxis), C (passenger cars), rail-based urban mass transit (R) or M (motorccles) 13 (millions of passengers) Formula (7): EF P, i, = EFP, i IRi, t CDi, (7) EF P, i, = Transport emissions factor per passenger in vehicle categor i in ear (grams per passenger) EF, = Transport emissions factor per passenger before project start (grams per passenger) P i CD i, = Correction factor for changing trip distance in categor i for the ear, where I = T (taxis), C (passenger cars) or M (motorccles) IR, = Technolog improvement factor at ear t for vehicle categor i i t t = Age in ears of fuel consumption data used for calculating the emission factor in ear NMT and IT are not included as emissions are 0 for this categor in the baseline. 14 E.g., t=7 for the ear 2007 if the fuel data is from the ear /49

14 See applicabilit condition for CD i, (Equation 5: The adjustment is onl made if TD i, < TD i ). For passenger cars, EF KM,C, is annuall adjusted as described under heading 4.1 above, considering the applicabilit condition of reduced emissions per kilometer. Emissions from passengers which in absence of the project would have used rail-based mass transit sstems (R) are counted as EF P,R, = 0 grams per passenger. Formula (8): P i, = P Si, (8) P i, = Passengers transported b the project which in absence of latter would have used transport tpe i, where i = Z (buses, public transport), T (taxis), C (passenger cars), M (motorccles), NMT (non-motorized transport), R (rail-based urban mass transit) and IT (induced transport, i.e., would not have traveled in absence of project) (millions) P = Total passengers transported b the project monitored in ear (millions) S i, = Share of passengers transported b the project which in absence of latter would have used transport tpe i, where i = Z (buses, public transport), T (taxis), C (passenger cars), M (motorccles), NMT (non-motorized transport), R (rail-based urban mass transit) and IT (induced transport, i.e., would not have traveled in absence of project) (%) If the project does not include an estimate of credits for modal shift then the surve onl includes the categories of public transport, NMT, rail-based urban mass transit and induced traffic. Details of the surve are found in the appendix B. Induced travel is included in leakage calculations (induced travel in passenger cars) as well as in the baseline (induced travel in public transport). Sensitivit Analsis A sensitivit analsis is carried out for data and parameters, which are used to calculate baseline as well as project emissions (at minimum where uncertaint level of data is considered moderate or high). The PDD shall identif data with this level of uncertaint. The sensitivit analsis shall also identif potential critical parameters and to further discuss these in the PDD. The sensitivit analsis made shall be based on calculating the change of the data parameter that would be required to reduce emission reductions b 5%. This value gives an indication of the magnitude of change of the data parameter required to significantl change calculated emission reductions. A sensitivit analsis shall be undertaken at a minimum for the load factor and for the modal distribution. Steps to carr out the sensitivit analsis include: (1) Identif all data with moderate or high uncertaint levels; (2) Carr out a sensitivit analsis on these parameters calculating the level of change of the parameter required to reduce emission reductions b 5% below that originall estimated; (3) Assess the result in light of possible data uncertaint: The parameter change required is considered as highl improbable. The PDD needs to deliver the arguments wh this is considered improbable; 14/49

15 The parameter change is considered as plausible. In this case the maximum plausible change must be incorporated in the parameter to assure for a conservative calculation of emission reductions e.g. if fuel consumption values for the baseline could also be 20% lower and would change the emission reductions b more than 5% then the PDD must use a parameter for fuel consumption which is 20% lower than the original data indicates. Project emissions The project emissions are onl from the new transport sstem. All emissions from trips undertaken in the new sstem need to be included (i.e., both on trunk routes and feeder lines). Total emissions can be calculated in one of two was, depending on data availabilit. If records exist, the data qualit of both alternatives is equal. Reliable data are, e.g., based on electronic measurement of fuel consumption or data monitored b the bus compan managing the units. For both alternatives, specific fuel consumption data (i.e., consumption per distance driven) needs to be crosschecked in the QA sstem. Cross-checks include a comparison over time within the same compan, as well as a comparison with, e.g., other companies operating in the BRT sstem using the same tpe of buses. Alternative A: Use of Fuel Consumption Data This alternative is based on the total fuel consumed. Formula (9): PE = [ TCPJ,x, (EFCO2,x + EFCH4,x + EFN2O,x )] (9) x PE = Project emissions in ear (tco 2 e) TC PJ,x, = Total consumption of fuel tpe x in ear b the project (million litres) EF CO2,x = CO 2 emission factor for fuel tpe x (gco 2 per litre) EF CH4,x = CH 4 emission factor for fuel tpe x (gco 2 e per litre, based on GWP) EF N2O,x = N 2 O emission factor for fuel tpe x (gco 2 e per litre, based on GWP) For BRTs using electricit, the emissions from electricit consumption are based on the latest approved version Tool to calculate baseline, project and/or leakage emissions from electricit consumption. Alternative B: Use of Specific Fuel Consumption and Distance Data This alternative uses as a basis fuel efficienc data (i.e. consumption per kilometre driven). Formula (10): [ SEC ( EF + EF EF )] EF = + (10) KM, j, j, x, CO 2, x CH 4, x N 2O, x x EF = Transport emissions factor per distance for project bus categor j in ear KM, j, (gco 2 e per kilometer) SEC j, x, = Specific energ consumption of fuel tpe x in project bus categor j in ear (litre per kilometer) EF CO 2, x = CO 2 emission factor for fuel tpe x (gco 2 per litre) EF CH 4, x = CH 4 emission factor for fuel tpe x (gco 2 e per litre, based on GWP) 15/49

16 EF, N 2 = N O x 2 O emission factor for fuel tpe x (gco 2 e per litre, based on GWP) Fuel-efficienc data is derived from annual data reported b the bus companies operating the units either of all units or of a representative sample of comparable units (comparable technolog, vintage and size). To ensure a conservative approach, all data with specific fuel consumption values which are more than 20% lower than the average specific fuel consumption of comparable units are omitted from calculations. This ensures a conservative approach, as project emissions are potentiall overstated. If the CDM project includes onl parts of a larger activit, the fuel used for the CDM project is separated from the total fuel used. The separation is done (in order of preference) b the following means: B operators: This method is used if certain operators are assigned to certain parts of the project; B distance driven: The fuel share for each part of the project is based on the share of kilometers per project part; B passengers: The fuel share for each part of the project is based on the share of passengers per part of the project (based on the entr points of passengers). Formula (11): Total project emissions are calculated from the following equation. [( EF DD ) + ( EF DD )] PE = (11) KM,TB, TB, KM,FB, PE = Project emissions in ear (tco 2 e) EF KM,TB, = Transport emissions factor per distance for trunk buses in ear (gco 2 e per kilometer) DD TB, = Total distance driven b trunk buses in ear (million kilometers) EF KM,FB, = Transport emissions factor per distance for feeder buses in ear (gco 2 e per kilometer) DD FB, = Total distance driven b feeder buses in ear (million kilometers) Leakage The following leakage sources are addressed: (1) Upstream emissions due to: FB, Construction: Emissions due to the construction of dedicated lanes for the BRT project; Reduced life-span: Additional emissions due to earlier replacement of buses than under business as usual. This includes emissions due to scrapage policies; Life-ccle effect of reduced fuel usage. Upstream emissions are estimated ex ante and monitored annuall. (2) Change of load factor of the baseline transport sstem due to the project, i.e., the project potentiall influences the occupanc rate of the remaining vehicles. This is monitored on a regular basis during project execution; (3) Reduced congestion in remaining roads, provoking higher average vehicle speed, plus a rebound effect. The total impact of congestion is calculated ex ante and not monitored. 16/49

17 For the sake of a conservative approach, leakage is onl considered if the total annual effect is to reduce estimated emission reductions. Construction and reduced life-span emissions are annualized based on the crediting period of the project. This is due to the fact that these emissions occur at the beginning (even before start of the crediting period), while other leakage emissions are annual. Not annualizing the construction and scrappage emissions would thus grossl overstate leakage in the first ear and would not be compatible with the approach of monitoring annuall leakage and onl accounting for leakage if the net effect is to reduce the credited emissions reductions. 1. Upstream Emissions 1.1. Construction Emissions The basic impact of construction is due to new trunk lanes being built for the BRT project. The emissions occur during production of the required building materials, and are thus upstream. The methodolog focuses solel on cement and/or asphalt as the main energ-intensive materials used for construction. The total amount of cement is calculated per kilometre of trunk lane to have a simple indicator. For calculation purposes, it is important to specif the number of additional lanes built for the BRT sstem. See data parameters at the end of this section. Formula (12): LE CON ( CEM EFCEM + ASP EFASP) DT, = (11) Y LE, = Leakage emissions from construction in ear (tco 2 e) CON CEM = Cement used in construction (tons per kilometre of trunk lane) EF CEM = Specific emissions factor for cement (tco 2 e/t cement) ASP = Asphalt used in construction (tons per kilometre of trunk lane) EF ASP = Specific emissions factor for asphalt (tco 2 e/t asphalt) DT = Distance of trunk lanes built in project (kilometres), based on kilometres x number of trunk lanes Y = Crediting ears of the project 15 Default emission factors for cement and asphalt are listed in the appendix Vehicle Replacement Emissions The process of scrapping itself creates no additional emissions, as buses would have been scrapped sooner or later anwa. The emissions due to scrappage or bus retirement are basicall a reduced lifespan of the vehicle. This means increased energ use for manufacturing the buses per operating ear or kilometre. Energ used for the manufacturing buses creates upstream emissions. If the project activit does not include scrapping of buses, this source of leakage is not included. Formula (13): 15 If the project opts for a 7 ear renewable crediting period, total crediting ears for the purpose of this formula is taken as 7 ears. 17/49

18 LE LSP BABL BAPJ BSCRw EFBM w= 1 BABL, = (12) Y LE, = Leakage emissions from reduced life-span of buses in ear (tco 2 e) LSP BSCR = Bus units scrapped b project in ear w, where w = 1 to (NB: if buses are not w scrapped the estimated number of retired buses is taken) EF BM = Emissions factor for bus manufacturing (tco 2 e per bus) BA BL = Average age when buses are replaced /retired in the baseline scenario (ears) BA PJ = Average bus age of scrapped buses under the project activit (ears) Y = Crediting ears of the project 16 For BA BL the age taken is the 99 th percentile of buses operating in the cit i.e., 99% of buses are ounger than BA BL. If no statistics are available with an annual distribution of buses, the average replacement age is taken as 40 ears (default value). The emissions used to manufacture a bus are based on life-ccle estimates. The project proponent can either identif the life-ccle emissions relevant for the tpe of vehicles circulating in the project region, or use the default value given b the methodolog. Using a national/regional value would be the first option. However, since this source of leakage emissions is onl minor and that the inclusion of upstream emissions per se is ver conservative, use of a default factor is deemed as appropriate. The default factor is a constant of 42 tco 2 e per large bus manufactured. The average vehicle age of scrapped buses is estimated ex-ante for calculation purposes. Medium sized and small buses are converted into large buses based on the passenger capacit, taking large buses as having a capacit of 80 persons Upstream Fuel Emissions The extraction, production and transport of fuels results in GHG emissions. Reduced fuel consumption thus reduces more than the combustion emissions. A parameter for upstream emission is applied. This parameter can either be determined based on national studies for upstream fuel emissions or using the default value based on international literature. This source of leakage is onl considered if the fuel is not refined in an Annex I countr. Considering this tpe of leakage results in additional emission reductions. Formula (14): LE ( PE BE ) UEF UFP = LE = Emission leakage due to upstream fuel production emissions in ear (tco 2 ) UFP PE = Project emissions in ear (tco 2 e) BE = Baseline emissions in ear (tco 2 e) UEF = Upstream emissions multiplier, based on default factor from literature (see appendix) (%) 16 If the project opts for a 7 ear renewable crediting period, total crediting ears for the purpose of this formula is taken as 7 ears. 17 If for example medium buses have a capacit of 40 passengers then the emission factor is taken as 40/80*42tCO 2. (13) 18/49

19 1.4. Summar Upstream Emissions Formula (15): LE UP, LECON, + LELSP, + LEUFP, = (14) LE, = Leakage emissions due to upstream processes in ear (tco 2 e) UP LE, = Leakage emissions due to construction in ear (tco 2 e) CON LE, = Leakage emissions due to reduced life-span of buses in ear (tco 2 e) LSP LE UFP, = Leakage emissions due to upstream emissions from fuel production in ear (tco 2 e) 21. Change of Load Factor The project could have a negative impact on the load factor of taxis or the remaining conventional bus fleet. Load factor changes in the baseline public transport sstem are thus monitored. Leakage is onl included if the load factor changes b more than 10 percentage points, as certain variations in the load factor caused b external circumstances are normal. The methodolog also considers load factor changes in taxis if the are included as vehicle categor b the project, thus claiming credits from a modal shift from taxi to the BRT sstem. In the case of lower load factors, it is assumed that this change has occurred immediatel after the last measurement, and the leakage calculation for this ear includes the sum of load-factor leakage of all ears since the last monitoring. This ensures a conservative approach. To avoid the risk of having to include ex post leakage from former ears, the project proponent can monitor the load factor annuall. Formula (16): ROC i, = OC CV i, i, (12) ROC i, = Average occupanc rate relative to capacit in categor i in ear, where i = Z (buses) or T (taxis) OC, = Average occupanc of vehicle in categor i in ear (persons) i CV, = Average capacit of vehicle i in ear (persons) i In the case of public transport, the occupanc rate is measured in relation to the bus capacit, as bus sizes ma change over time or before/after project. ROC i, shall be monitored directl through visual surves. Formula (17): This equation determines leakage emissions from change of load factors in buses. ROC = Z, LE LF, Z, EFKM, Z VDZ NZ, 1 (13) ROCZ, 0 19/49

20 LE LF, Z, = Leakage emissions from change of load factor in buses in ear (tco 2 e) EF, = Baseline transport emissions factor per distance for buses (gco 2 e per kilometer) KM Z VD = Annual distance driven per vehicle for buses before the project start, determined Z ex ante with Formula 18 (kilometres) N, = Number of buses in the conventional transport sstem operating in ear Z ROC Z, = Average occupanc rate relative to capacit of conventional buses in ear, based on the most recent stud of occupanc rates ROC = Average occupanc rate relative to capacit of buses before start of project Z,0 Formula (18): VD Z = k = S, M, L DD N Z, k Z, k k = S, M, L (14) VD Z = Distance driven per bus before the project start (kilometers) DD, = Total distance driven b buses of size k (kilometers) Z k Z k N, = Number of buses in the conventional transport sstem of size k Note: If ROC Z,0 - ROC Z, 0.1 then LE LF,Z, = 0, i.e., if the occupanc rate of buses is not reduced b more than 0.1 then the project has had no negative effect (leakage). Formula (19): This equation determines leakage emissions from change of load factors in taxis. OC = T, LE LF, T, EFKM, T VDT NT, 1 (15) OCT, 0 LE LF, T, = Leakage emissions from change of load factor in taxis in ear (tco 2 e) EF, = Transport emissions factor per distance of taxi baseline (gco 2 e per kilometer) KM T VD = Distance driven per taxi on average before the project starts (kilometres) T N, = Number of taxis operating in ear T OC, = Average occupanc rate of taxi for the ear (passengers onl: driver not counted) T OC = Average occupanc rate of taxi before project start (passengers onl: driver not T,0 counted) 20/49