Amount of Request: $100,000: Other Funding Sources: FDEP Grant Agreement No. S0714 Brevard County Muck Dredging.

Transcription

1 Executive Summary Project Title: Adaptive Framework for Predicting the Impacts of Climate Change and Urbanization on Water Quality in the Indian River Lagoon Project Applicant: Florida Institute of technology, Department of Ocean Engineering and Science, 150 West University Blvd, Melbourne FL, and Applied Ecology, Inc., 981 E Eau Gallie Blvd Suite E #101 Melbourne FL Amount of Request: $100,000: Other Funding Sources: FDEP Grant Agreement No. S0714 Brevard County Muck Dredging. Project description narrative: The proposed project provides the development of an innovative framework to address, simultaneously, two critical factors that will shape the future of the Indian River Lagoon s water quality and resiliency: climate change and urbanization. We have the unique ability to leverage several years of effort and investment in the development of a coupled watershed and hydrodynamic model that will be adapted to integrate climate model outputs and urbanization scenarios to become a powerful management tool. Project Location Map: Indian River Lagoon and watershed sub-basins CCMP Action Plans addressed by project CC-2 Support Indian River Lagoon-based research that considers and integrates global climate change issues and seeks practical scientific, technological and public policy solutions. CC-3 Provide information to local governments and residents of the Indian River Lagoon region about impacts of climate change and actions they can take to reduce these impacts Project Outputs (Deliverables) and Outcomes: Specific project objectives are: 1) quantifying the potential climatic changes including inter- and intra-seasonal trends and variability in precipitation, water temperature, and sea level rise, 2) adapting the projected climatic trends into a watershed model (Spatial Watershed Iterative Loading or SWIL), 3) adjusting the SWIL watershed model for projected changes in land use within the IRL watershed,4) Long term simulations hydrological and water quality model (EFDC/HEM3D) that include boundary conditions based on climatic trends and watershed inputs, and 5) presentation of project results in ArcGIS Online for delivery to the end user. Major deliverables include: 1) Raster datasets of predicted rainfall for the watershed 2) Future land use land cover maps and tables with watershed changes by watershed sub-basin, 3) Watershed loading simulation outputs 4) Hydrological simulation outputs from , and 5) ArcGIS Online web application to include key model input datasets and time enables outputs

2 Adaptive Framework for Predicting the Impacts of Climate Change and Urbanization on Water Quality in the Indian River Lagoon Indian River Lagoon Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan (CCMP) Action Plans implemented by this project: CC-2 Support Indian River Lagoon-based research that considers and integrates global climate change issues and seeks practical scientific, technological and public policy solutions. CC-3 Provide information to local governments and residents of the Indian River Lagoon region about impacts of climate change and actions they can take to reduce these impacts Applicant Information: Florida Institute of technology, Department of Ocean Engineering and Science, 150 West University Blvd, Melbourne FL, Technical Contact: Dr. Gary A Zarillo, Dept. of Ocean Engineering and Sciences, Florida Institute of technology; zarillo@fit.edu, Administrative Contact: Carolyn Lockyer, Office of Sponsored Programs, Florida Institute of Technology; clockyer@fit.edu, Project Specifics A. Project Goals and Objectives None of the modeling and related hydrological management and restoration efforts for the Indian River Lagoon consider the full spectrum of the projected effects of climate. In this project, we will build a predictive tool for managing the IRL ecosystem which has an adaptive framework that, in part, includes the best regional projections of climate change over the next 30 years as well as projected land use changes that are likely to affect the IRL watershed. Project results will be adaptive in the sense that the end-user tool, a coupled hydrologic-water quality model, is constructed from fundamental physics, chemistry and ecology that do not change over time. The inputs (forcings), however, will change in the face of strong climatic trends and watershed urbanization. As progress is made in understanding and measuring regional climatic factors and shifts in watershed land use, they can be incorporated into an estuary predictive modeling system via updated boundary conditions without restructuring the hydrological model. Current estimates indicate about a 6% increase in global precipitation for each 1ºC of warming what this means for the IRL is unclear. Conversely, extended dry periods have been linked to algal blooms within the IRL (e.g., IRL Consortium Superbloom Report, 2015). The impacts of warming temperatures on the bloom season within the IRL is also not well understood, but scenarios explored for other critical estuaries, such as the Chesapeake Bay, present deeply concerning potential changes that include coastal flooding, increase in salinity variability, increase in harmful algal blooms, reductions in seagrass coverage, among others (Naijar et al. 2010). Focusing on nitrogen non-point pollution alone, Howarth et al. (2006) predicted a dramatic increase in nitrogen flux by 65% in 2095 based on global climate change predictions for increase in precipitation in the Susquehanna River Basin. Furthermore, the interaction between urbanization and climate variability is expected to exponentiate these impacts as has been demonstrated by Kauskal et al. in Maryland (2008). A framework that directly incorporates the projected range of regional climate change factors (and uncertainty) and watershed evolution will be combined into formulating boundary conditions for long term model simulations of the hydrology and water quality of the Indian River Lagoon. Specific project objectives and deliverables are: Quantifying the local climatic changes including inter- and intra-seasonal trends and variability in precipitation, water temperature, and sea level rise. The deliverable will be raster datasets of predicted rainfall for the watershed, watershed and a prediction of local anomalies with respect to sea level rise

3 Adapting projected climatic trends into watershed model (Spatial Watershed Iterative Loading or SWIL). The deliverable will be an updated version of the SWIL model that accounts for climatic trends Adjusting the watershed model (SWIL) for projected changes in land use within the IRL watershed. The deliverable will be future land use land cover maps and tables with watershed changes by watershed subbasin and watershed loading simulation outputs adjusting the existing hydrological and water quality model (EFDC/HEM3D) for long term simulations that include boundary conditions based on climatic trends and watershed inputs. The deliverable will be hydrological simulation outputs from ArcGIS Online application to deliver results to the end user. The deliverable will be ArcGIS Online web application to include key model input datasets and time enabled outputs Model forecasts will extend through 2025 since most communities in the IRL basin have a 2025 future land use plan. Many of these plans specify full development according to current zoning. However, hypothetical alternatives could be applied in the forecast such as clustered development is area of least potential impact. Project deliverables (Table 1) include: Projected climatic trends and variability (ensemble mean and spread for basin-scale monthly precipitation, downscaled (local) estimates of global sea level) out to Forecast of total nitrogen and phosphorus nutrient loading to the IRL from the watershed basins out to 2025 for projected climatic trends and projected development in the watershed. Long term run of the EFDC/HEM3D hydro-water quality model out to 2025 based on watershed and climatic forecasts. Fully functional ArcGIS Online web application which enables non-technical users to visualize and query key model input data (future land use, monthly rainfall, watershed loading predictions, and predicted hydrological water quality time series Final project Report. Table 1 Time line for deliverables Deliverable Delivery Date Projected climatic trends and variability: Downscaled (regional) sea level, Month 4 1 st quarterly report Basin-scale monthly precipitation maps Month 6 Forecast of nutrient loading to the IRL out to 2025; Month 7 2 nd quarterly report Hydrologic-water quality model run out to 2025; Month 10 3 rd quarterly report ArcGIS Online Month 11 Final Report Month 12 B. Technical Merit/Justification The Indian River Lagoon is characterized by the rapid confluence of urban and suburban encroachment on one of the most productive ecosystems in the world. The transition from temperate to tropical from north- to-south along the IRL has produced one of the most diverse estuarine ecosystems in the U.S. Ecosystem research on the IRL, which extends from distal watersheds seaward to the coastal ocean and the impact of the Gulf Stream, provides the groundwork for future sustainability efforts including water and resource management, recreation, etc. A review of state and local ordinances indicates that, despite a wealth of scientific knowledge, a long term fully integrated plan that accounts for the potential impacts of climate change, population growth and continued urbanization has not yet been fully developed. Thus, none of the modeling and related hydrological management and restoration efforts for the Indian River Lagoon consider the full spectrum of the projected effects of climate

4 The FDEP identified the Indian River Lagoon and Banana River as impaired waterbodies due to nutrient overenrichment and issued TMDLs by requiring reductions in stormwater runoff by 21% to 69% across the Lagoon (Gao 2009). Since then, significant efforts have been led by the FDEP and Florida s water management districts to develop comprehensive plans for the water supply and sustainability of water quality in lagoons and estuaries. These efforts are focused on managing current watershed impacts relative to freshwater consumption and storm water management, but do not yet factor in the potential effects of climate change or anticipated urbanization of the watershed. The proposed project will strengthen the links among Florida s academic, planning, and environmental communities that are concerned with the IRL. We intend to build on the large body of knowledge that has already been developed by academic and research organizations as well as state agencies. From these efforts, environmental models have been configured to address water quality management issues within the IRL. One of the developments includes a FDEP-supported effort linking watershed and hydrodynamic- eutrophication models (Zarillo and Listopad, 2016). Simulations from this and other modeling studies are being mined in order to estimate the total maximum daily nutrient loads from watersheds into receiving estuaries and to help design ecosystem projects that target and remove muck deposited from selected locations in the IRL. The proposed project provides the development of an innovative framework to address, simultaneously, two critical factors that will shape the future of the Indian River Lagoon s water quality and resiliency: climate change and urbanization. We have the unique ability to leverage several years of effort and investment in the development of a coupled watershed and hydrodynamic model that will be adapted to integrate climate model outputs and urbanization scenarios to become a powerful management tool. The proposed deliverables provide critical information for prioritizing projects under the recently approved Save our Indian River Lagoon Project Plan (SOIRLPP) and currently or soon to be approved BMAPs for the North, Central IRL and Banana River. This project includes the entire extent of the Indian River Lagoon and corresponding watersheds, from Ponce de Leon Inlet to Jupiter Inlet. As described in Table 1, all tasks and deliverables of the project will take place within 12 months. C: Benefit(s) to the IRL Knowledge and deliverables from this proposed project directly and indirectly address numerous IRLNEP action plans identified in IRLNEP s 2008 Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan (CCMP) as high priorities and action plans anticipated in a full CCMP revision (now underway). Key CCMP action plan issues include Climate Change and Sea Level Rise; Water Quality; Point and NonPoint Source Discharges; Habitat Restoration; and Resilient Coastal Communities. This project will also provide important guidance as the IRLNEP and its partners work together to implement a comprehensive, coordinated monitoring plan for the IRL. One of the most intriguing and potentially valuable outputs of this project is the focus on an adaptive and integrated modeling framework to forecast IRL watershed changes and water quality over the next decade. That forecast knowledge has broad value and guidance implications across all issues being considered as part of the revised CCMP (i.e. Ecological Integrity, Economic Integrity, Resilient Coastal Communities, Monitoring, Science and Technology Priorities for the Next Decade and Connected Watersheds). The proposed project establishes the methodology on how to couple interdisciplinary efforts using the latest technology and modeling capabilities to support planning scenarios for a sustainable Lagoon. The outputs of this proposal will enable, for the first time, the discussion of the impact of different watershed and climatic scenarios to be considered in mid-long term planning. D. Local Commitment This project is not part of any adopted regional stormwater plan or a project listed in the 2008 CCMP plan. However, this proposed work will assist the efforts of several stakeholders to meet their required TMDLs for the Lagoon. In addition, ongoing restoration efforts, such as muck dredging and the placement of the best BMPs in high-loading watershed basins can be better guided by looking at short to mid-term predictions of watershed and hydrologic water quality. This is especially important since large restoration efforts might take several years from the planning stage to implementation. By accounting for the potential climate change impacts and anticipated urbanization of the watershed, the priority projects listed under Reasonable Assurance Plans or BMAPs can be adjusted thereby increasing the chance of success with respect to restoration efforts.

5 E. Project Readiness The project framework is already complete and based on a fully developed and coupled watershed and estuary environmental model (Zarillo and Listopad (2016). No permitting is necessary and bidding required to complete this project. Major tasks to adapt the model framework for long term predictions include: 1) Quantify potential climatic trends and variability by statistical downscaling climate model output including precipitation and global mean sea level, 2) Adapt the Spatial Watershed Iterative Loading (SWIL) model to long term simulations that capture climatic factors extracted from the climate model as well as potential urbanization trends, and 3) linking of a coupled hydrodynamic/water quality model with the climate and watershed components described above. The project will begin October 1, 2017 and be complete by September 20, Milestone deliverables are included in Table 1. F. Project Monitoring/Evaluation and Maintenance Plans The framework for watershed and water quality forecasting based on different climatic inputs and urbanization patterns will be the primary product developed during this project. This will allow numerous scenarios to be implemented in the future as climate models become spatially finer and as watershed urbanization policies and management plans adapt to climate change. Beyond the life of this project, the forecast technology does not expire and thus can be extended into the future as needed. The model itself can also be updated and improved as our knowledge of the relevant physical processes grows, as our observation capabilities expand, and computational resources increase. The modeling products developed for the project can assimilate new climate and watershed boundary conditions as knowledge of climate improves and urbanization trends evolve over time. Once the modeling framework is complete and forecasts out to 2025 are run, forecasts could be extended in 10 year increments if watershed and climate forecasts are extended. G. Citizen/Volunteer Engagement and Outreach Components Outreach The adaptive framework for forecasting based on climatic inputs and potential urbanization patterns developed during this project will allow the watershed and estuary quality model results to be applied to long term planning. Data from the scenarios will be visually displayed in a spatial environment and a custom time-aware story map be developed in ArcGIS Online to better inform and communicate with the end user. The web application will be open-access and thus will allow IRL citizens to be better engaged with the ongoing modeling efforts taking place in their watersheds. We anticipate reaching the public by making the application easy to use and visually attractive. A discussion of urbanization of the watershed, climate change and the connectivity between land and water can be fostered by using this application. In addition, quantitative tabular outputs of both surface and baseflow runoff volumes and loads will be provided by basin for integration in the EFDC/HEM3D hydrodynamic/water quality model. EFDC model outputs will be permanently archived and blended with ArcGIS Online products of the SWIL model for convenient viewing. H. Experience and Past Performance The proposed project is based on the experience and ongoing research of the PIs. The watershed model developed of Dr. Claudia Listopad of Applied Ecology Inc. is a key component of ongoing research into the potential benefits of muck removal in the IRL sponsored by the FEDP. The Spatial Watershed Iterative Loading (SWIL) model to be applied in this project was developed as part of this study to incorporate more available data, more recent conditions, and more temporally fine datasets into the Pollution Loading Simulation model (PLSM). Since the original development of SWIL in 2012, several versions have been launched. The latest version, SWIL 4.0, was developed to couple with Dr. Zarillo s hydrodynamic model and includes an expanded watershed (Mosquito through St. Lucie Inlet) and predicts volumes and loadings from In the upcoming year SWIL will be further updated through and include the entire Lagoon s watershed under an ongoing project funded by Florida legislature as part of an FDEP Grant to Brevard County. The climate research conducted by Dr. Steven Lazarus at Florida Tech has already contributed to several NOAA funded modeling projects that involve coupling of atmospheric and hydrodynamic models (Lazarus et al, 2013;

6 Weaver et al., 2016). Dr. Lazarus is currently providing ensemble wind forcing for coastal storm surge analyses and water quality simulations in the Indian River Lagoon. The in-estuary component of the project will leverage a long history of model development and validated applications to the Indian River Lagoon initiated in the 1990s (Zarillo and Surak 1994, Zarillo et al 2011). In this project, coupling with the watershed and climate models will allow the EFDC/HEM3D water quality model to forecast out to 10 years into the future and beyond. The combined hydrodynamic and water quality model is being currently applied in hind cast mode to evaluate nutrient budget calculations, potential benefits of muck dredging, and possible benefits of anthropogenic flushing of the IRL (Zarillo and Listopad 2016). I. Special Requirements TMDLs; Climate Change; Under-represented Communities. This project will enhance TMDL implementation by factoring in the potential effects of climate change anticipated urbanization of the watershed to the TMDL calculation. In addition to addressing potential climatic factors such as rainfall, this project will consider the projected annual global mean sea-level rise onto local water levels. Project Funding and Matching Funds This project will leverage the considerable resources already dedicated to the coupled IRL watershed and water quality modeling scheme. The initial model setup up for the IRL was completed in 2015, including construction of the EFDC/HEM3D model computational grid. Currently the project team is working on updating the combined models through the end of The experience and technology developed in this effort is directly applicable to extending the modeling scheme to 2025 and beyond. The level of effort to forecast conditions through 2025 is approximately $100,000 including PI and student salaries. No additional computing hardware resources are anticipated. Based on the effort thus far, we can match EPA Section 320 Funds at 25%. Table 1 list costs for the major project tasks. Task Line Item Task Description Quantify potential climatic trends and variability: Sea Level Rise and Precipitation Adapt SWIL to long term simulations Hydo/WQ forecast with linked climate and SWIL models 4 ArcGIS Online application IRL Funding Amount Cost Share Cost Share Funding Source (cash or in-kind) $30,000 $12,500 Florida Tech $30,000 $25,000 $12,500 Florida Tech $10,000 5 Final Report $5,000 Project Total Cost $100,000 $25,000 References Howarth, R. and Coauthors The influence of climate on average nitrogen export from large watershed in the Northeastern United States, Biogeochemistry, 79, DOI: /s Naijar and Coauthors Potential climate-change impacts on the Chesapeake Bay. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 86, 1, DOI: /j.ecss

7 Kaushal, S. and Coauthors Interaction between urbanization and climate variability amplifies watershed nitrate export in Maryland. Environmental Science and Technology, 42, 16, DOI: /es800264f Lazarus, S. M., S. T. Wilson, M. E. Splitt, and G. A. Zarillo, 2013: Evaluation of a wind-wave system for ensemble tropical cyclone wave forecasting. Part II: Waves. Wea. Forecasting, 28, Lazarus, S. M., S. T. Wilson, M. E. Splitt, and G. A. Zarillo, Evaluation of a wind-wave system for ensemble tropical cyclone wave forecasting. Part I: Winds. Wea. Forecasting, 28, Weaver, R.J., Taeb, P., Lazarus, S., Splitt, M., Holman, B., and Colvin, J., 2016: Sensitivity of modeled estuarine circulation to spatial and temporal resolution of input meteorological forcing of a cold frontal passage, Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, doi: /j.ecss Zarillo, G.A. and Listopad, C.M Hydrologic and Water Quality Model for Management and Forecasting within Brevard County Waters of the Indian River Lagoon; Impacts of Environmental Muck Dredging: Florida Institute of Technology Annual Report. Zarillo, G., T.V. Belanger, K. Zarillo, J. Rosario-Lantin and D. McGinnis The Development of a Hydrologic Model for Mosquito lagoon in Canaveral National Seashore. Natural Resources Report to the National Park Service. Contract No. N Zarillo, G.A. and Surak, C.R Indian River Lagoon/Turkey Creek Hydrodynamics and Salinity Model. Final Report to the St. Johns River Water Management District. 145pp

8 DRAFT STATEMENT OF WORK Adaptive Framework for Predicting the Impacts of Climate Change and Urbanization on Water Quality in the Indian River Lagoon Introduction/Background The Indian River Lagoon is characterized by the rapid confluence of urban and suburban encroachment on one of the most productive ecosystems in the world. The transition from temperate to tropical from north- to-south along the IRL has produced one of the most diverse estuarine ecosystems in the U.S. Ecosystem research on the IRL, which extends from distal watersheds seaward to the coastal ocean and the impact of the Gulf Stream, provides the groundwork for future sustainability efforts including water and resource management, recreation, etc. A review of state and local ordinances indicates that, despite a wealth of scientific knowledge, a long term fully integrated plan that accounts for the potential impacts of climate change, population growth and continued urbanization has not yet been fully developed. In March 2009, the FDEP identified the Indian River Lagoon and Banana River as impaired waterbodies due to nutrient over-enrichment and issued TMDLs by requiring reductions in storm water runoff by 21% to 69% across the Lagoon (Gao 2009). Since then, significant efforts have been led by the FDEP and Florida s water management districts to develop comprehensive plans for the water supply and sustainability of water quality in lagoons and estuaries. These efforts are focused on managing current watershed impacts relative to freshwater consumption and storm water management, but do not yet factor in the potential effects of climate change or anticipated urbanization of the watershed. The proposed project will strengthen the links among Florida s academic, planning, and environmental communities that are concerned with the IRL. We intend to build on the large body of knowledge that has already been developed by academic and research organizations as well as state agencies. From these efforts, environmental models have been configured to address water quality management issues within the IRL. One of the developments includes a FDEP-supported effort linking watershed and hydrodynamic- eutrophication models (Zarillo and Listopad 2016). Simulations from this and other modeling studies are being mined in order to estimate the total maximum daily nutrient loads from watersheds into receiving estuaries and to help design ecosystem projects that target and remove muck deposited from selected locations in the IRL. The proposed project provides the development of an innovative framework to address, simultaneously, two critical factors that will shape the future of the Indian River Lagoon s water quality and resiliency: climate change and urbanization. We have the unique ability to leverage several years of effort and investment in the development of a coupled watershed and hydrodynamic model that will be adapted to integrate climate model outputs and urbanization scenarios to become a powerful management tool.

9 Objectives Project objectives Develop a methodology and tools to guide management decisions and policies to enhance coastal water quality. Acquire new actionable information about the effects of non-point source nutrient pollution associated with expected urbanization patterns in the watershed on a coastal ecosystem of high significance. Develop a new approach to predict the impacts of climate change on future water quality. Location of the Project The Project Location will include approximately 75% of the Indian River Lagoon and sub-basins of the watershed. Figure 1. shows the overall project area, the existing model grid coverage and the watershed basins included in the watershed model, both of which are operational Figure 1. project area, the existing model grid coverage and the watershed basins included in the watershed model Scope of Work The scope of work includes three (3) major components. Component 1 is to quantify potential climatic trends and variability out to the year Statistical downscaling will be applied to regional climate model (CMIP5) model output including precipitation and global mean sea level (IPCC AR5, 2013). In addition to climate model output, observations (tide gauge and altimetry) will be applied to an autoregressive (AR) model and used to regress annual global mean sea-level rise anomalies onto local sea-level rise. This process has two primary components, the first of which involves relating changes in global mean surface air temperature (from multiple climate models) to sea level rise and a second in which the global signal is regressed against local sea level changes (Rahmstorf 2007, Guttorp et al., 2014). The CMIP5 ensemble model output, which forms

10 the backbone of the IPCC AR5, will be used to generate estimates of local sea level rise as well as uncertainty estimates (via model spread). Component 2 of the scope of work will be to adapt an existing watershed model to long term simulations that capture climatic factors. The IRL watershed loads were originally estimated by using the Pollution Load Screening Model (PLSM), originally developed for smaller areas within the IRL (Bergman and Donnangelo 1995, 1996a, 1996b, 1998), and later expanded to the entire IRL drainage by the SJRWMD to represent loads for the year 2000 (Adkins et al. 2004). In 2012, an alternative model, the Spatial Watershed Iterative Loading (SWIL) was developed to incorporate recent conditions and more temporally and spatially fine datasets. The latest version of SWIL (SWIL 3.0) will be customized to integrate the monthly downscaled precipitation products allowing future monthly loading predictions to be generated for the Indian River Lagoon watershed. The third major component of methodology is the linking of a coupled hydrodynamic/water quality model with the climate and watershed components described above. This component of the project will leverage a long history of model development and validated applications to the Indian River Lagoon initialed in the 1990s (Zarillo and Surak 1994, Zarillo et al, 2011, Zarillo and Listopad 2016). In this project, we will build on previous hind cast modeling in the IRL using EFDC/HEM3D, model forecasts out to the year As the climate and model components are completed data from the scenarios will be visually displayed in a spatial environment and a custom time-aware story map will be developed in ArcGIS Online to better inform and communicate with the end user. In addition, quantitative tabular outputs of both surface and baseflow runoff volumes and loads will be provided by basin for integration in the EFDC/HEM3D hydrodynamic/water quality model. EFDC model outputs will be permanently archived and blended with ArcGIS Online products of the SWIL model for convenient viewing. Task Identification The following tasks will be completed: 1. Quarterly progress reports 2. Quantifying the local climatic changes including inter- and intra-seasonal trends and variability in precipitation, water temperature, and sea level rise, 3. Adapt the projected climatic trends into a watershed model (Spatial Watershed Iterative Loading or SWIL), 4. Adjust the watershed model (SWIL) for projected changes in land use within the IRL watershed, 5. Adjust the existing hydrological and water quality model (EFDC/HEM3D) for long term simulations that include boundary conditions based on climatic trends and watershed inputs, and 6. ArcGIS Online application to deliver results to the end user. 7. Project administration and final report.

11 Deliverables and Time Frames Task 1. Quarterly progress reports starting after the first quarter following contract execution and continuing to project completion. Task 2. Forecasts of climatic trends and variability out to Task 3. Forecast of Nutrient loading to the IRL from the watershed basins out to 2025 for projected climatic trends and projected development in the watershed, Task 4. Long term run of the EFDC/HEM3D hydro-water quality model out to 2025 based on watershed and climatic forecasts, Task 5. Loading of project results into ArcGIS Online for visual presentation to the end users. Task 6. Final project Report Table 1 Time line for deliverables Deliverable Delivery Date Forecasts of climatic trends and variability Month 4 Forecast of Nutrient loading to the IRL out to 2025 Month 7 Hydro-water quality model run out to 2025 Month 9 ArcGIS Online Month 11 Quarterly Reports Months, 3,6,8 Final Report Month 12 Budget Task Line Item Task Description IRL Funding Amount Cost Share Cost Share Funding Source 1 Quantify potential climatic trends and variability 2 Adapt SWIL to long term simulations 3 Hydo/WQ forecast with linked climate and SWIL models $30,000 $12,500 Florida Tech $30,000 $25,000 $12,500 Florida Tech 4 ArcGIS Online project results 10,000 5 Final Report $5,000 Project Total Cost $100,000 $25,000

12 References Bergman, M., and L. Donnangelo Development of HSPF hydrologic simulation models for the Fellsmere Water Control District-East. Technical Memorandum 10, St. Johns River Water Management District, Palatka, Fla. Bergman, M., and L. Donnangelo. 1996a. Development of HSPF hydrologic simulation models for the South Prong drainage basin of the Sebastian River. Technical Memorandum 15, St. Johns River Water Management District, Palatka, Fla. Bergman, M., and L. Donnangelo. 1996b. Development of HSPF hydrologic simulation models for the North Prong drainage basin of the Sebastian River. Technical Memorandum 18, St. Johns River Water Management District, Palatka, Fla. Bergman, M., and L. Donnangelo Simulation of freshwater discharges to the Sebastian River using regional parameters. Technical Memorandum 25, St. Johns River Water Management District, Palatka, Fla. Bergman, M., L. Donnangelo, and W. Green Simulation of sediment, phosphorus, and nitrogen storm loads in the South Prong watershed of the Sebastian River, Florida, using HSPF/BASINS. Technical Memorandum 43, St. Johns River Water Management District, Howarth, R. and Coauthors The influence of climate on average nitrogen export from large watershed in the Northeastern United States, Biogeochemistry, 79, DOI: /s Naijar and Coauthors Potential climate-change impacts on the Chesapeake Bay. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 86, 1, DOI: /j.ecss Kaushal, S. and Coauthors Interaction between urbanization and climate variability amplifies watershed nitrate export in Maryland. Environmental Science and Technology, 42, 16, DOI: /es800264f Lazarus, S. M., S. T. Wilson, M. E. Splitt, and G. A. Zarillo, Evaluation of a wind-wave system for ensemble tropical cyclone wave forecasting. Part I: Winds. Wea. Forecasting, 28, Zarillo, G.A. and Listopad, C.M Hydrologic and Water Quality Model for Management and Forecasting within Brevard County Waters of the Indian River Lagoon; Impacts of Environmental Muck Dredging: Florida Institute of Technology Annual Report. Zarillo, G., T.V. Belanger, K. Zarillo, J. Rosario-Lantin and D. McGinnis The Development of a Hydrologic Model for Mosquito lagoon in Canaveral National Seashore. Natural Resources Report to the National Park Service. Contract No. N Zarillo, G.A. and Surak, C.R Indian River Lagoon/Turkey Creek Hydrodynamics and Salinity Model. Final Report to the St. Johns River Water Management District. 145pp

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