GLOBAL WARMING CONCERNS

Transcription

1 GLOBAL WARMING CONCERNS Introduction 1. Global Warming is considered an anthropogenic phenomenon. Human carbon dioxide sources over the last 150 years increased the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere and induced Global Warming through the Greenhouse Effect. 2. The Greenhouse Effect is at the core of the issue, but the focus on carbon dioxide emissions may mask interrelated issues. Some causes which may influence the Greenhouse Effect and also present distinct problems of their own include: c. energy production and consumption, d. economic development, and e. deforestation. 3. Just as there are many causes, the consequences of Global Warming are also multifaceted and interrelated. Examples include: a. climate change, b. biodiversity, c. food production, and d. economic prosperity. 4. This paper discusses and considers some of these issues. REVISION OF THE THEORY The Greenhouse Effect 5. The Greenhouse Effect regulates energy flows in the atmosphere and biosphere (Wikipedia, n.d.b). The atmosphere and oceans sink incoming Solar radiation, and modify the temperature at the surface of the Earth, which consequently averages about 15 C instead of -18 C. 6. Water vapor is the largest contributor to the Greenhouse Effect, being three times more significant than carbon dioxide (Bear, 2007; Uherek, n.d.). The Greenhouse Effect's waterdependence consequently limits the thermal range of the Earth's biosphere. Page 1 of 7

2 7. At the lower limit, a tipping point exists at some point where the Earth's temperature approached 0 C, wherein the Greenhouse Effect would become substantially less effective. The Earth's temperature would then be expected to rapidly drop by 30 C. 8. Another tipping point would occur as temperature rose towards 0 C. The Greenhouse Effect would become active again, causing a rapid 30 C rise. At the upper limit, the Earth's temperature would rise until the planet is enveloped in a cloud layer, mitigating further temperature increase within the biosphere. A tropical climate might then dominate the globe. 9. The Greenhouse Effect thus acts as a thermal control system, and is mainly driven by water vapor. It holds the Earth's temperature about 30 C above a default sub-zero range, with an upper globally tropical limit. Carbon Dioxide and The Carbon Cycle 10. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is responsible for about 20% of the total Greenhouse Effect. Atmospheric carbon dioxide amplifies the Greenhouse Effect. Carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere and stored in plant materials through the action of photosynthesis, and is released by respiration and organic decay. Carbon dioxide is also absorbed and released by the oceans. These processes are collectively called the Carbon Cycle. 11. The primary (external) source of carbon dioxide is outgassing from the Earth's interior (DiVenere, 2007). However, over the last 150 years, atmospheric carbon dioxide has risen by 29%, which is attributed to the industrial revolution (Frequently Asked Global Change Questions, n.d.). 12. Although increased by 29%, the final equilibrium for atmospheric carbon dioxide may be less than this once the global Carbon Cycle has adjusted to the new carbon load. This will require cessation of external injection of carbon to the Carbon Cycle, however. 13. Anthropogenic carbon dioxide is about 5% of the global total (U.S. Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in Perspective, 1997), which exceeds the Carbon Cycle storage capacity by 2.5%, so increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Although the anthropogenic contribution (estimated 0.28%) to the Greenhouse Effect is small (Bear, 2007), over time the effect is expected to compound. The Solar Factor 14. The Solar radiation incident upon the Earth is assumed to be invariant. Earth temperature changes are therefore attributed to the Greenhouse Effect. However, Solar variability may be a factor. 15. Mars' Global Warming suggests Earth's Global Warming may be partly due to increased Solar radiation (Ravilious, 2007). Handwerk (2006) attempts to debunk Ravilious by asserting the invariance of Solar radiation, but advice from the American Association of State Climatologists also supports Ravilious' position (Taylor, 2005). Page 2 of 7

3 16. Mozina (2006) provides evidence that current understanding of the Sun is flawed. Mozina argues that the Sun is actually solid, not gaseous. If so, then all current theories relating to the Sun may be erroneous. GENERAL IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBAL WARMING 17. Global Warming may be man-made or natural, and may be Solar or Greenhouse induced. Climate Change 18. A temperature change of several degrees is predicted to change to world weather patterns (Wikipedia, n.d.a). More severe weather events are expected (Farabee, 2007; Ravilious, 2007). The potential human cost of these predictions is self-evident. 19. Climate change may disrupt agricultural practices and alter the carrying capacity of the world's land-masses (Wright, n.d.). In the worst case, the possibility of regional and even continental population displacements arises. Sea Levels 20. A global temperature rise of 2 C is expected to melt global icecaps, causing rising sea levels (Farabee, 2007). This would cause inundation of coastal lands - a catastrophe for many nations. Biodiversity 21. Climate change includes loss of ecological habitats. Loss of up to 30% of species is predicted for a temperature rise of three degrees over a century. Coral reefs are particularly susceptible. Many have died since 1998 (Lardner, 1998). SPECIFIC IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBAL WARMING 22. Global Warming will globally cause widespread economic loss, human hardship and ecological damage. Reduction of Greenhouse Effects might be possible if anthropologically driven. Deforestation 23. The two main natural carbon sinks are the forests and oceans (Atmospheric Oxygen Levels Falling, 1999). However, half of the world's forests have been cut down (Global Forest Watch, n.d.). The main reasons for deforestation include: Page 3 of 7

4 a. commercial logging, b. mining, c. livestock grazing, and d. slash & burn agriculture. 24 Extra benefits provided by forests include: a. habitats for most terrestrial species, b. atmosphere purification and oxygenation, c. erosion prevention, and d. climate stabilization. 25. Programs to re-establish forests (reforestation) are a viable carbon mitigation strategy, and bring many other benefits (Stock, J., & Rochen, A., n.d.). Oil Economy 26. About 64% of human carbon emissions comes from fossil fuel use (Frequently Asked Global Change Questions, n.d.). Reduction of fossil fuel use promises to reduce anthropogenic Greenhouse Effects. 27. Reduction of fossil fuel use presents economic challenges. Industrial societies are built on the cheap energy provided by fossil fuels. They are unlikely to readily consent to reduction of the fossil fuel industry. Consumers are similarly unlikely to readily give up their energy-driven comforts. 28. The USA, with 6% of the world's population, consumes 25% of the world's oil (U.S. Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in Perspective, 1997). Other industrialized nations are similar. China and India are expected to overtake USA and Europe by 2015 (Climate Change - Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 2006). 29. Expanding energy needs suggest increasing competition for fossil fuel reserves. Fossil fuels implicitly inject new carbon into the Carbon Cycle, so adding to the atmospheric carbon dioxide. This has two possible outcomes: a. If oil is biogenic (of biological origin), then it is a finite resource which will eventually be depleted (Heinberg, 2004). b. If oil is abiotic (of non-biological origin), then it may be an unlimitled resource (Abiotic Oil, 2005). Page 4 of 7

5 30. Abiotic oil promises to permanently satisfy global energy needs (Vialls, 2004). However, this neglects the endless injection of new carbon into the Carbon Cycle. This is not sustainable. 31. Biogenic oil carries with it the threat of conflict over a diminishing resource. Biogenic oil will eventually run out. 32. Neither biogenic nor abiotic oil are ecologically sustainable energy prospects. Carbon-neutral energy sources are thus needed to meet energy needs. Meanwhile, reduction of fossil-fuel use is feasible, as demonstrated by Russia (Vialls, 2004). 33. Ethanol is a carbon-neutral energy option. It can be distilled from most plant materials, and actually reduces net Greenhouse emissions. (Ethanol Fuel, n.d.). Brazil has largely eliminated economic dependence on petroleum fuels (Ethanol Info, 2003). 34. Ethanol approximates a close substitute for petroleum fuels, so migration of the oil economy to ethanol is feasible, as Brazil has already demonstrated. One drawback of the ethanol option is its consumption of agricultural capacity. 35. Other carbon-neutral energy options exist, including solar, wind, tidal and nuclear power. These alternatives are more costly, so unilateral efforts to mitigate carbon emissions by using them would be futile. The USA would simply damage its own economy if it replaced petroleum with more costly alternatives, and the rapidly expanding economies of China and India did not. Reducing fossil fuel dependence is technologically viable, but would require global cooperation to be effective. Page 5 of 7

6 References Abiotic Oil (2005). Retrieved June 15, 2007, from Atmospheric Oxygen Levels Falling (July 19, 1999). Environment News Service. Retrieved June 15, 2007, from Bear,T. (January 14, 2007). The Absurd Report: Water Vapor Rules the Greenhouse System. Retrieved June 15, 2007, from Climate Change - Greenhouse Gas Emissions (October 19, 2006). US Environmental Protection Agency. Retrieved June 15, 2007, from DiVenere, V. (2007). The Carbon Cycle and Earth's Climate. Columbia University - Introduction to Earth Sciences I. Retrieved June 15, 2007, from Ethanol Fuel (n.d.). BookRags. Retrieved June 15, 2007, from Ethanol Info (2003). Renewable Energy partners of New Mexico. Retrieved June 15, 2007, from Farabee, M. (2007). The Biosphere and Mass Extinctions. Retrieved June 15, 2007, from Frequently Asked Global Change Questions (n.d.). Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Retrieved June 15, 2007, from Global Forest Watch - Frequently Asked Questions (n.d.). World Resources InstituteGlobal Forest Watch. Retrieved June 15, 2007, from Handwerk, B. (September 13, 2006). Don't Blame Sun for Global Warming, Study Says. National Geographic News. Retrieved June 15, 2007, from Heinberg, R. (October 6, 2004). The 'Abiotic Oil' Controversy. Retrieved June 15, 2007, from Lardner, P. (November 17, 1998). Scientists Say Global Warming Killing Coral Reefs. Reuters News Service. Planet Ark. Retrieved June 15, 2007, from Page 6 of 7

7 Mozina, M. (2006). The Surface of the Sun. Retrieved June 15, 2007, from Ravilious, K. (February 28, 2007). Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says. National Geographic News. Retrieved June 15, 2007, from Stock, J., & Rochen, A. (n.d.). The Choice: Doomsday or Arbor Day. Retrieved June 15, 2007, from Taylor, J. (November 1, 2005). Mars Is Warming, NASA Scientists Report. The Heartland Institute - Environment News. Retrieved June 15, 2007, from Uherek, E. (n.d.). Water Vapor - A Greenhouse Gas. Retrieved June 15, 2007, from U.S. Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in Perspective (October 21, 1997). Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy. Retrieved June 15, 2007, from Vialls, J. (August 25, 2004). Russia Proves 'Peak Oil' is a Misleading Zionist Scam. Retrieved June 15, 2007, from Wikipedia (n.d.a.). Effects of Global Warming. Retrieved June 15, 2007, from Wikipedia (n.d.b). Greenhouse Effect. Retrieved June 15, 2007, from Wright, D. (n.d.). Greenhouse Myths. The Donella Meadows Archive. Sustainability Institute. Retrieved June 15, 2007, from Page 7 of 7