GLOBAL WARMING CONCERNS

Transcription

1 GLOBAL WARMING CONCERNS Introduction 1. Global Warming is commonly presented as an anthropogenically driven phenomenon. In short, the man-made carbon dioxide sources associated with industrialization over the last 150 years have substantially increased the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere and thereby induced Global Warming through the Greenhouse Effect. 2. Global Warming is an actuality that is not readily dismissed, and the Greenhouse Effect is generally acknowledged to be at the core of the issue. However, the focus on carbon dioxide emissions when considering Global Warming may mask a kaleidoscope of interrelated issues which all have a bearing on the subject. Some causal issues which may both influence the Greenhouse Effect and present distinct problems of their own include: c. energy production and consumption, d. economic development, and e. deforestation. 3. Just as the contributory issues which attract attention under the banner of Global Warming are many and varied, the associated areas of impact - the consequences of Global Warming - are also multifaceted and interrelated. Examples include: a. climate change, b. biodiversity, c. food production, and d. economic prosperity. 4. This paper briefly discusses some of these issues and considers their implications from environmental and economic perspectives. Page 1 of 10

2 REVISION OF THE THEORY The Greenhouse Effect 4. The Greenhouse Effect is a consequence of the combined self-regulating properties of the energy flow system comprised of the terrestrial atmosphere and biosphere (Wikipedia, n.d.b). In brief, the atmosphere and oceans act as non-linear energy sinks for incoming Solar radiation, and modify the average temperature at the surface of the Earth compared to what it would be in their absence. The effect is that the Earth's surface temperature averages about 15 C instead of -18 C, hence is generally more suitable for life than it would otherwise be. 5. Water vapor is by far the largest contributor to the Greenhouse Effect, having at least three times the impact of the next most significant atmospheric component, which is carbon dioxide (Bear, 2007; Uherek, n.d.). This means that the Greenhouse Effect can be expected to regulate the impact of Solar radiation intensity and exert definable limits on the thermal behavior of the Earth's biosphere. 6. At the lower end of the scale, if Solar radiation reduces, a tipping point would theoretically be reached at some point where the Earth's average surface temperature approached 0 C, wherein the influence of water vapor as a thermal amplifier would be abruptly attenuated and the Greenhouse Effect would become substantially less effective. At this point, the Earth's average surface temperature would be expected to suddenly drop by some 30 C, and the rapid onset of a global ice age might be expected. 7. The corollary of a theoretical "tipping point" which suddenly shuts the Greenhouse Effect down and plunges the Earth into a global ice age is that, if the Solar radiation were then to progressively increase, another tipping point would be reached near an average global surface temperature of 0 C. At this point, the water-vapor driven Greenhouse Effect would once again suddenly become active, causing a rapid 30 C rise in average global temperatures. This then leads to consideration of the upper boundary of operation of the Greenhouse Effect. 8. At the upper extreme, if Solar radiation progressively increases, then the Greenhouse Effect would see the Earth's average surface temperature rise until a self-limiting point is established by the total envelopment of the planet in a permanent cloud layer. Complete cloud cover would mitigate further temperature increase within the biosphere, as a greater proportion of the incoming Solar radiation is reflected back into space. At this stage, we might expect to find a tropical climate extending across the entire globe. Significantly, the water thus aggregated into the atmosphere might actually reduce the levels of the oceans. An incidental consideration is that this scenario might help to explain how the planet was previously able to sustain numerous species of staggering size compared to the Earth's current range of fauna. 9. Thus, the Greenhouse Effect constitutes a thermal control system for the Earth's biosphere, which is predominantly dependent on the water content of the atmosphere for its action. It acts to hold the Earth's average surface temperature about 30 C above an otherwise default sub-zero range, with an inherent self-limiting upper temperature range (most likely tropical), but also with the potential for a sudden drop in global temperature if Solar flux should fall below a certain lower threshold. Page 2 of 10

3 Carbon Dioxide and The Carbon Cycle 10. Having established the dominance of water vapor in the operation of the Greenhouse Effect, the action of carbon dioxide can be considered in proper context. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is responsible for about 20% of the total Greenhouse Effect. Atmospheric carbon dioxide amplifies the Greenhouse Effect. 11. Carbon (in carbon dioxide) is removed from the atmosphere and stored in plant materials through the action of photosynthesis, and is released from the plant materials by burning, by animal consumption and respiration, and by the decay of plant or animal matter. Carbon dioxide is also absorbed and released by the oceans in a dynamic equilibrium. These cyclic processes of storing and releasing carbon dioxide are collectively called the Carbon Cycle, which acts in aggregate to regulate the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Processes which release carbon dioxide to the atmosphere are called Carbon Sources, whereas processes which remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere are called Carbon Sinks. 12. In the absence of any additional inputs of carbon dioxide, the cycling levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will remain relatively constant. DiVenere (2007) states that the primary (external) source of carbon dioxide is outgassing from the Earth's interior, at midoceanic ridges and from volcanoes. However, over the last 150 years, the atmospheric level of carbon dioxide has risen by some 29%, which can be largely attributed to anthropogenic activity (Frequently Asked Global Change Questions, n.d.). The increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide attributed to man-made sources only accounts for about 40% of the total man-made sources of carbon dioxide over that period, which indicates that the remaining 60% has been absorbed into storage by the Carbon Cycle (Atmospheric Oxygen Levels Falling, 1999). 13. The onset of the industrial revolution has thus resulted in a sudden increase in the total carbon presented to the Carbon Cycle, which requires time to adapt to the change and establish a new equilibrium. Any new equilibrium level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will yield a new thermal equilibrium as a result of the Greenhouse Effect. Although the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide has increased by 29% over the last 150 years, the final equilibrium level might be substantially less than this once the global Carbon Cycle has adjusted to the carbon load and stored the excess. Such an equilibrium will require cessation of external injection of carbon to the Carbon Cycle, however, or introduction of processes to remove carbon from the Carbon Cycle at the same rate that it is being injected. 13. Anthropogenic sources of carbon dioxide are about 5% of the global total (U.S. Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in Perspective, 1997). The concern for Global Warming is that the anthropogenic contributions currently exceed the capacity of the global Carbon Cycle by some 2.5%, resulting in an annual surplus which increases the atmospheric level of carbon dioxide. To the extent that anthropogenic activity is injecting new (external) carbon into the Carbon Cycle, the Carbon Cycle will never be able to "catch up" to the total load, and the atmosphere will consequently experience a continual increase in carbon dioxide content. Thus, although anthropogenic activities may only be making a small contribution (estimated 0.28%) to the Greenhouse Effect (Bear, 2007), continued external injection rather than recycled contribution may substantially compound its impact. Page 3 of 10

4 Other Gases 14. Beyond water vapor and carbon dioxide, several other gases have significant Greenhouse Effects. Using an arbitrary "Global Warming Index" (GWB) which ranks carbon dioxide as 1, methane has a GWB of 56 and nitrous oxide has a GWB of 280. Of these two gases, methane is currently more abundant and significant to global warming, and is of lesser but similar global significance to carbon dioxide (U.S. Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in Perspective, 1997). 15. Natural methane sources include anaerobic organic decay, termite flatulence and geological releases. Man-made sources are the direct analog of these natural sources - anaerobic compost, livestock flatulence and oil industry production. Anthropogenic methane production is about one third of the global total. Current total combined global sources of methane exceed the estimated global sink capacity by some 10% (U.S. Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in Perspective, 1997). 16. Geological methane may pose a far greater Greenhouse risk than any current carbon dioxide source (Dorritie, 2007). The geological record provides evidence that past mass extinctions may have resulted from the sudden release of vast quantities of methane into the atmosphere in relatively short periods of time. The Solar Factor 17. Atmospheric constituents such as water vapor and carbon dioxide determine the response characteristics of the terrestrial Greenhouse Effect. A significant "other factor" which appears to be side-stepped or overlooked by mainstream consideration of the Global Warming issue is the contribution of the actual Solar flux to the equation. The Solar radiation incident upon the Earth is assumed to be invariant - hence any terrestrial thermal fluctuations are attributed to changes in the atmosphere's response profile, and hence to changes in the atmosphere's composition. However, Solar variability may indeed be a factor in Global Warming. 18. The Global Warming evident in recent years on Mars as well as on Earth supports the argument that Earth's Global Warming may at least be partly due to increased Solar radiation (Ravilious, 2007). Handwerk (2006) attempts to debunk Ravilious' position by simply asserting the view that Solar radiation is invariant - a circular argument at best. Recent advice from the American Association of State Climatologists also supports the notion that Solar activity may be a significant contributor to Global Warming (Taylor, 2005). 19. Adding further weight to the proposition that closer attention should perhaps be given to the Sun's role in Global Warming, Mozina (2006) provides compelling evidence that the global scientific community has very little understanding of what the Sun and stars actually are, how they work or what they are capable of doing. Mozina's very convincing argument, supported by high resolution satellite imagery, is that the Sun is actually solid, not gaseous as has been taught for several centuries. If true, this may invalidate all current theories about the composition and behavior of the Sun and stars. Page 4 of 10

5 GENERAL IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBAL WARMING 20. Global Warming may arise from anthropogenic and natural contributions to the Greenhouse Effect. Global Warming may also arise from increase in Solar radiation. The effects of Global Warming are independent of its cause and global in scope. Climate Change 21. A temperature change of just a few degrees over the course of several decades is predicted to cause substantial changes to world weather patterns (Wikipedia, n.d.a). More severe weather events are expected, including more violent storms, more extensive flooding and longer droughts (Farabee, 2007; Ravilious, 2007). The potential human cost of these predictions is self-evident. An additional adverse possibility of increased global temperatures is the spread of tropical diseases. 22. Climate change in a more benign sense may be expected to disrupt existing agricultural practices and alter the population-carrying capacity of the world's land-masses. Changes in weather patterns - lower or higher rainfall, longer or shorter seasons, higher average temperatures - may necessitate adaptation to new crops and agricultural practices. This may increase the productivity of some regions, while reducing that of others (Wright, n.d.). In the worst case, the possibility of regional and even continental population displacements arises. Sea Levels 24. An average global temperature rise of just 2 C is expected to cause the Antarctic and Greenland icecaps to melt, causing a 100 metre rise in sea levels (Farabee, 2007). Existing computer simulations predict a global temperature rise of between 1.5 C and 4.5 C by The net effect of such a rise in sea levels would be significant inundation of land areas around the globe, which would be a catastrophe for any low lying populated regions of the world, including much of India and China. 25. A corollary of the loss of the Antarctic and Greenland icecaps would be the exposure of the previously ice-covered landscapes in both cases. Long term, this newly accessible land may partially offset the inundation of land in other areas of the globe. Biodiversity 26. The climate change scenarios implicitly include the loss of ecological habitats due to the changing weather patterns, principally increased coastal and reduced inland rainfall, and increased average temperatures. Loss of up to 30% of species is predicted for a global temeperature rise of only a few degrees over the course of a century. Coral reefs are particularly susceptible to warmer temperatures, and many are known to have died with Global Warming of the oceans since 1998 (Lardner, 1998). Page 5 of 10

6 SPECIFIC IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBAL WARMING 27. Global Warming has generally adverse implications in a general sense. The ecological and climatological changes that are likely to result will cause widespread economic loss, human hardship and ecological damage around the globe. Action to mitigate or prevent continued Global Warming should therefore be attempted if possible. Although little can be done to circumvent the effect of direct Solar fluctuations, reduction of Greenhouse Effects might be possible if purely natural in origin, and more so if anthropologically driven. In the latter case, the key human contribution to Greenhouse Effects is emission of carbon dioxide, followed by methane emissions. Strategies to reduce these emissions or to otherwise neutralize their effects should therefore be pursued. Deforestation 28. The two main natural carbon sinks are the terrestrial vegetative biomass and the oceans, which are roughly equal in their total carbon sinking capacity (Atmospheric Oxygen Levels Falling, 1999). However, human activities have greatly reduced the world's forests. In Roman times, 90% of Europe was covered by forest, but now half of the world's forests have been cut down (Global Forest Watch, n.d.). By far the greatest losses have been in the areas with the largest population growth, that is, in Africa and Asia. The main reasons for deforestation include: a. commercial logging industry (wood and paper products), b. mining and infrastructure, c. livestock grazing (fast food chains largely implicated), and d. slash & burn agriculture (subsistence and fuel use by third world populations). 29. Accessory benefits to the carbon sinking utility of terrestrial forests, and especially rainforests, include: a. forests provide habitats for over half of all terrestrial species, b. forests purify the atmosphere by removing pollutants and producing oxygen, c. erosion is prevented and soils are stabilized by forests, and d. forests have the effect of stabilizing regional climates - even a relatively small stand of trees will locally "attract rain". 30. Programs to re-establish forests (reforestation) are clearly a viable carbon mitigation strategy, and promise a range of added benefits beyond any consideration of Global Warming (Stock, J., & Rochen, A., n.d.). Page 6 of 10

7 Oil Economy 31. Of the total carbon emissions by the human race, 64% is produced by so-called fossil-fuel combustion (Frequently Asked Global Change Questions, n.d.). Measures to reduce the use of petroleum based fuels therefore promise the most effective reduction of man-made carbon dioxide emissions. 32. Reduction of petroleum usage in particular, and fossil fuels in general, presents substantial economic challenges. Industrial societies have built their economies around the cheap energy provided by fossil fuels, and now have powerful entrenched vested interests in both industrial and political arenas which are unlikely to readily consent to the reduction of the scale of the fossil fuel industry. Consumers are similarly unlikely to readily give up the cheap, energy-driven conveniences to which they have become accustomed. 33. The USA has 6% of the world's population, but consumes almost 25% of the world's oil production (U.S. Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in Perspective, 1997). Other industrialized nations, especially those of the European Economic Community (EEC), also consume oil at a disproportionate rate compared to developing countries. This picture will change in coming years, however, as the energy consumption by rapidly industrializing nations such as China and India eventually overtakes that of the USA and Europe (Climate Change - Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 2006). 34. The rapidly expanding energy needs of the world's nations suggests that increasing competition and even conflict will become the norm as nations compete for access to fossil fuel sources. Other things being equal, what does this imply for the issue of Global Warming? Fossil fuels implicitly inject new carbon into the Carbon Cycle, and therefore add to the carbon load on the natural carbon sinks, with the excess adding to the atmospheric carbon dioxide. If continued, this has two possible outcomes: a. If oil is biogenic (of biological origin), then it is a finite resource which will eventually be depleted (Heinberg, 2004). In this case, the carbon which is injected into the Carbon Cycle as a result of burning fossil fuels will simply be that amount which was lost from the Carbon Cycle when the material was originally formed - presumably from dead dinosaurs and prehistoric forests. The Carbon Cycle will thus simply be restored to it's (presumably) prehistoric state, with a prehistoric (globally tropical) climate to match. b. If oil is abiotic (of non-biological origin), then it may well be an effectively limitless resource, with sufficient reserves in the Earth to sustain current usage rates for thousands or even millions of years (Abiotic Oil, 2005). In this case, the carbon which is being added to the Carbon Cycle is completely new material, and will not run out. In this case, the atmospheric carbon dioxide level will continue to increase indefinitely, for as long as petroleum fuels are used. 35. Abiotic oil promises to deliver an indefinitely sustainable oil economy which will satisfy the energy needs of all nations on Earth (Vialls, 2004). However, this outlook entirely neglects the ecological issue of the endless injection of new carbon into the Carbon Cycle, and the resultant indefinitely increasing level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This is not sustainable. Page 7 of 10

8 36. Biogenic oil carries with it the threat of conflict over a diminishing resource, with the prospect of nations warring over the last vestiges of the world's petroleum reserves in a globally tropical environment. This would currently appear to be the consensus view of the eventual fate of the global oil economy. 37. In the Global Warming context, neither biogenic nor abiotic oil are sustainable energy prospects. Alternative, carbon-neutral energy sources must therefore be found to satisfy current and future energy needs. One possible measure to reduce carbon emissions is simply to reduce the use of fossil fuels. This is entirely feasible, as demonstrated by Russia reducing its total fossil fuel usage in recent years during the same period in which the US demand for oil has continued to grow (Vialls, 2004). Additional mitigation strategies include reforestation programs to increase the global carbon sinking capacity while alternative fuel sources are being sought. 38. A carbon-neutral fuel option is to extract fuels from crops grown for the purpose. Ethanol, which burns cleaner than petroleum based fuels, can be distilled from virtually any source of plant material. Ethanol production for fuel use actually reduces net Greenhouse emissions, as the plants grown for the purpose absorb more carbon dioxide than is generated by the fuel's production and subsequent use. Sugar cane, sugar beet, corn, potatoes and switch grass are used commercially for this purpose in countries such as Brazil, Colombia, China and the United States (Ethanol Fuel, n.d.). Brazil is the world's largest user of ethanol as a fuel, and has largely eliminated economic dependence on petroleum fuels (Ethanol Info, 2003). 39. The particular advantage of a carbon-neutral petroleum alternative such as ethanol is that the fuel approximates a close substitute for petroleum fuels. Migration of the oil economy to ethanol use is feasible. The systems already in place to deliver and use petroleum products can be readily adapted to use ethanol instead, as Brazil has already demonstrated. One significant potential drawback of the ethanol option is that agricultural capacity is required to produce it, which is then unavailable for food production. 40. A variety of other carbon-neutral energy options already exist, albeit generally more expensive than petroleum-based energy. Well-established examples include solar, wind, tidal and nuclear power, as well as currently exotic energy storage technologies such as hydrogen cells. The decision to reduce anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions by replacing fossil fuels thus has an inherent economic cost, which will be propagated through all levels of industry and economic activity in oil-based economies. 41. Any strategy to mitigate the Greenhouse Effect of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions would be futile if undertaken unilaterally by a particular nation or group of nations. Thus, the EEC and the USA would simply damage their own economic prospects while not accomplishing the desired objective if they agreed to replace petroleum usage with more costly alternatives, while the rapidly expanding economies of China and India (for example) did not, because whatever carbon dioxide emissions are eliminated by the EEC and the USA in this scenario would rapidly be replaced by the economies of India and China who have now also been given a substantial economic advantage over the EEC and the USA. 42. Thus, mitigation of anthropogenic exacerbation of the Greenhouse Effect by reducing fossil fuel usage is viable given the existence of alternative energy technologies. However, any such strategy would require coordinated collaborative cooperation on a global scale to be effective. Page 8 of 10

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10 Lardner, P. (November 17, 1998). Scientists Say Global Warming Killing Coral Reefs. Reuters News Service. Planet Ark. Retrieved June 15, 2007, from Mozina, M. (2006). The Surface of the Sun. Retrieved June 15, 2007, from Ravilious, K. (February 28, 2007). Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says. National Geographic News. Retrieved June 15, 2007, from Stock, J., & Rochen, A. (n.d.). The Choice: Doomsday or Arbor Day. Retrieved June 15, 2007, from Taylor, J. (November 1, 2005). Mars Is Warming, NASA Scientists Report. The Heartland Institute - Environment News. Retrieved June 15, 2007, from Uherek, E. (n.d.). Water Vapor - A Greenhouse Gas. Retrieved June 15, 2007, from U.S. Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in Perspective (October 21, 1997). Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy. Retrieved June 15, 2007, from Vialls, J. (August 25, 2004). Russia Proves 'Peak Oil' is a Misleading Zionist Scam. Retrieved June 15, 2007, from Wikipedia (n.d.a.). Effects of Global Warming. Retrieved June 15, 2007, from Wikipedia (n.d.b). Greenhouse Effect. Retrieved June 15, 2007, from Wright, D. (n.d.). Greenhouse Myths. The Donella Meadows Archive. Sustainability Institute. Retrieved June 15, 2007, from Page 10 of 10