Indonesia Macroeconomic Overview
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- Kory Perkins
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2 Indonesia Macroeconomic Overview World Bank anticipates Indonesia s economy to grow by 5.3% in 2017 and 5.5% in 2018 and 2019 supported by resilient domestic demand and improvement in private investment IMF: In 2017, growth is expected to rise modestly to 5.1%, led by a gradual pickup in private investment in response to stronger commodity prices, low interest rates, and a recovery in external demand on the back of a pickup in global growth and trade. Bank Indonesia reaffirmed its estimate of 5.0% - 5.4% growth rate in the economy for 2017 Overall, we see the cautious early signs of green shoots - improving consumer confidence now up two months in a row and at its highest level, end of elections, talk of S&P rating upgrade for Indonesia (the last of the three key credit ratings agencies to give investment grade status) and strong Government tax collections in the first three months. Source: Indonesia Statistic Slide 2 - May 2017
3 Indonesian Cement Industry 2017 Landscape Lafarge Indonesia 1.6 mio ton 0.2 mio ton (g) Indocement 24.2 mio ton Semen Bosowa 4.0 mio ton 2.5 mio ton (g) Anhui Conch 2.6 mio ton Semen Indonesia 10.3 mio ton 0.9 mio ton (g) Semen Baturaja 2.1 mio ton 0.7 mio ton (g) Merah Putih 4.2 mio ton 2.0 mio ton (g) Siam Cement 2.0 mio ton Holcim Indonesia 11.9 mio ton 0.3 mio ton (g) Slide 3 - May 2017 Source: ASI and internal estimation Jui Shin 2.0 mio ton Semen Indonesia 14.4 mio ton 0.5 mio ton (g) Semen Puger 0.5 mio ton Panasia 2.0 mio ton Semen Indonesia 7.8 mio ton Semen Kupang/Merah Putih 0.6 mio ton Total Cement Capacity in 2017 of 102.2* mio tons, from 89.9 mio tons in 2016 Anhui Conch 2.2 mio ton (g) * Total capacity in 2017 includes Finished Mills from Hao Han (0.6 mt), Semen Jakarta (1.5 mt), and Sun Fook (0.6 mt), excludes Rembang plant from Semen Indonesia (1.5 mt)
4 Demand/Supply Outlook: Oversupply Market in mio Tons CAGR Supply : 3.6% CAGR Demand : 6.5% CAGR Supply : 4.6% CAGR Demand : 6.9% Year Over Supply % 58.0% 54.6% Export 15.2% % 1.8% Slide 4 - May % % 71.2% 68.3% 4.2% 1.5% 76.1% Import % 84.8% % 78.9% 80.2% Consumption per capita = 243 kg Vietnam = 611 kg Thailand = 443 kg Malaysia = 751 kg Philippines = 240 kg Singapore = 1,380 kg Brunei = 899 kg % % 91.9% 92.4% 88.7% 85.4% % 14.5% % 3.3% 3.5% % 80.1% % % % 69.7% % 66.2% % 64.4% 63.0% % % % 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% Demand Growth Domestic Demand Domestic Supply Utilization Consumption per capita = 396kg
5 Cement demand shows down trend 4 years in a row as multiplier effect of infrastructure spending has not been realized Source: Indonesian Cement Association, BPS Statistic % 15.2% % % 7.0% 11.4% % 4.5% 4.8% 5.0% 5.7% 6.3% 5.5% 6.0% 6.2% 6.2% 6.0% 5.6% 4.6% 5.0% 4.7% 5.0% 4.9% 5.0% 3.3% 4.2% 6.2% 5.5% 3.3% 1.8% 3.5% 4.6% 1.5% 0.9% 0.0% 0.5% Q Q Mortgage Rate % BCA - KPR Slide 5 - May 2017 Domestic Demand (mio T) GDP Growth Demand Growth Cement Demand still flat amid strong trade balance signal In line with relatively high mortgage rate % Demand Growth 12.0% 20% 17.7% 10.5% 18% 10.0% 10.0% 9.5% 16% 14.5% 8.0% 14% 7.5% 12% 6.0% 10% 4.0% 6.2% 4.8% 8% 5.5% 6% 2.0% 3.3% 3.5% 4% 2% 0.0% 0.0% 0% BI Rate Bio USD % In line with slowing commodity & Coal 17.7% 14.5% 5.5% 3.3% 3.5% 4.6% 0.0% Q Non Oil and Gas Cement Demand Oil and Gas % Demand Growth 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0.5% 0% Q1 2017
6 Domestic Consumption Growth & Market Share per region YTD March 2017 Source: Indonesia Cement Association Market Growth: >15% For Q1 2017, Indocement s home market, Western Java recorded negative growth of -3.2% YoY. Java indicated recovery with overall growth of 3.9% 10-15% supported by double digit growth in Central and East Java. Meanwhile Outside Java growth is 5-10% -3.5%. In 2016, Sulawesi was able to deliver double digit growth however, this year indicates negative growth along with Sumatera and 0-5% Kalimantan. Growth in East Indonesia and Nusa Tenggara were not able to offset the slump in other <0% islands due to lower volume. Commodity price recovery has not translate into positive growth in Sumatera and Kalimantan yet. Slide 6 - May 2017 Source: Indonesia Statistic (processed)
7 Java is still key market area in delivering strong results Geographic composition of Sales 76% 75% 74% 73% 72% 71% 27% 26% 28% 27% 30% 29% 28% 28% 27% 31% 30% 29% 28% 27% 26% 70% 26% 25% 69% 25% 24% 68% 67% 73% 74% 75% 72% 73% 70% 74% 71% 72% 72% 73% Q1 '15 Q2 '15 Q3 '15 Q4'15 FY 2015 Q1 '16 Q2 '16 Q3 '16 Q4 '16 FY 2016 Q1 '17 23% 22% Java (LHS) Outside Java (RHS) On absolute terms Java remains the dominant factors in delivering strong results Indocement is able to protect home market and maintain stable sales, however declining sales from outside Java brought down total domestic sales Slide 7 - May 2017
8 The importance of bulk sales continues In thousand tons 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000-3,517 3,931 20% 21% 14,459 14,568 Bag/Bulk sales composition Jan - Dec 4,109 3,860 12,943 12, ,144 3, Q1 '16 Q1 '17 Bag 24% Portion of bag sales is lower than bulk due to declining sales especially in outside Java for Q Composition of bag vs bulk sales in Q is 78.1% vs. 21.9% Indocement positions itself as a reliable partner for infrastructure projects providing quality bulk cement and concrete at timely delivery 24% Bulk Stronger focus on increasing bulk sales High bulk volume in Jakarta Indocement benefits from proximity to Jakarta 21% 22% Slide 8 - May 2017
9 Continuous focus on cost control with disciplined spending on promotional activities Composition of Manufacturing Cost as % Fixed Cost Control bio IDR Trend 50% 40% 45.4% 542-6% % % % 20% 10% 0% 24.2% 22.8% 11.3% 42.6% 24.5% 10.6% 9.2% 43.0% 21.9% Raw Materials Direct labor Fuel and Power 24.1% Man. Overhead Jan - Mar 2015 Jan - Mar 2016 Jan - Mar % Increase in coal price only caused slight increase in fuel and power cost, due to gain in running the most efficient kilns. Manufacturing Overhead portion decreases due to cost savings activities including repairs. Ramping up of P14 kiln in Q1 already starts to deliver savings; full savings expected starting in H2. Increase in SG&A relates to additional cost to support end user program and Rajawali promotion % Q Q Q Selling Expense -15% +8% G&A Expense Slide 9 - May 2017
10 Continue in Cost Leadership to maintain a decent margin in Q New market entrants leading to higher competition and pricing pressure but Indocement maintains better margin compared to peers INTP Gross margin development INTP EBITDA margin development 50.0% 40.0% 40.0% 30.0% 34.5% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 22.3% 20.0% 43.2% 41.8% 41.7% 41.2% 20.0% 15.0% 33.9% 31.8% 31.1% 30.3% 10.0% 0.0% 44.5% 45.0% 44.6% 44.4% Jan-Mar Jan-Jun Jan-Sep Jan-Dec 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 34.8% 34.5% 34.0% 33.8% Jan-Mar Jan-Jun Jan-Sep Jan-Dec Continue competitive environment, Management focus on taking respective initiatives early on during the year: Operational Excellence program Fix cost reduction program Managing efficient kiln utilization Slide 10 - May 2017
11 Financial Result Consolidated Statement of Comprehensive Income Operating margin reduction from 27.5% to 14.8% contributed by lower revenues by -14.1% due to strong competition on weak demand situation which impact was reduced by cost efficiency in production (-0.8%) amid cost pull from current soaring coal price. Active end user program initiated at beginning of year to support the volume performance. Slide 11 - May 2017
12 Balance Sheet Consolidated Statement of Financial Position Trade receivables are declining following weak demand on start up year after reach its peak at end of year s quarter. Inline with receivables sides, lower activities reduced the payable balance. Increase in Non-Current Assets compare to same period last year was mainly due to spending in capital expenditures and tax assets revaluation. Dividend Payment history: Dividend/Share * , Avg. Share Price 21,604 23,390 21,159 18,225 Dividend Yield 2.1% 3.8% 6.4% 2.3% % Div. Payout 34.8% 66.1% 94.3% 35.1% * based on previous Fiscal Year Earnings Slide 12 - May 2017
13 Our P14 in Citeureup has already started A new Tiga Roda cement plant, with annual installed production capacity of 4.4 million cement at Citeureup, Bogor - Indonesia. IDR ~6 Trillion investment. A production line that equipped with modern and energy efficient facility. Designed to utilized alternative fuels and materials and owns state-of-art emission system and environment-friendly production facility with bag filter as effective dust filter in all production lines. Kiln line already fully operational starting end of last year and savings already started with full benefit expected in H2. Currently its benefit USD 4-5/t. Slide 13 - May 2017
14 Capacity Expansion & Future Investment to participate in Industry Growth Full Operation in 2017 with combined cycle operation of 1 unit of aero derivative gas turbine (ADGT) to supply 73 MW (including power supply from Steam Turbine to Citeureup factory); Investment cost: IDR Bio and started operation in Oct, 2016 Full Operation in 2017 for 1 Cement and packing floating terminal in Pontianak to strengthen our bag and bulk cement supply in West Kalimantan area Investment Cost: IDR 56.3 Bio and started operation in May 2016 Future Projects: 2 greenfield or brownfield project with each capacity of 2.5 mio ton: one in Central Java (under final Supreme Court appeal process for Environmental permit issues) and one in outside Java: IDR 8.9 Trillion Study for some potential Cement Terminals in Sumatra: IDR Bio Cement tank 300 Ton installed in Pontianak Terminal Loading conveyor to truck Million Tons mt mt mt mt mt Slide 14 - May /2025 Strategically well positioned to capitalize on further demand
15 Ready Mix Concrete and Aggregates Expansion Strengthening Ready-Mix Concrete business particularly highgrade quality in order to meet the increase demand of infrastructure development in Indonesia. Current focus is on infrastructure projects and its domino-effect on development of residential, industrial area and high rise building. Q sales volume decreased by 21% YoY due to slowing down construction activities across Indonesia and lower economic growth in general. Pionirbeton, a subsidiary, is one of market leaders in RMC business. Secured concrete market by signing exclusive and long-term contract of andesite and sand supply from Ketapang and Belitung. 4,800 4,500 4,200 3,900 3,600 3,300 3,000 2,700 2,400 2,100 1,800 1,500 1, m3 RMC Sales Volume 4,430 3,947 3,517 3,377 2,988 2,429 1, AGG Sales Volume Slide 15 - May 2017
16 CEMENT MARKET Outlook for 2017 Market Condition National cement consumption growth is predicted to be better around 3 to 5% in 2017 (versus flat in 2016) Consumption in 2017 will increase in line with higher Government s projects and some commercial and residential projects after Tax Amnesty, decrease of mortgage (KPR) interest, loosened regulation on LTV ratio, second mortgage availability for off-plan properties, reduction in tax for transfer of ownership, clarity in property ownership by foreigners, and simplification of regulations. Strong concrete and bulk cement demand anticipated in outside Java and more spread area in Java due to faster Government s infrastructure projects in 2017 Expansion in Cement Terminals and Batching Plants are required. Over supply of about 27 mio tons in 2016 and up to 37 mio tons in 2017 will change the cement market outlook and we expect the continuing tight competition among 19 brands from 15 players (from 9 brands and 9 players previously) Recent hike in coal price will curb the potential further drop in prices in near future and possible consolidation. Coal price has slide back to $82 in March 2017 from peak of $102 in December 2016 however, remain considerably higher than last year. Slide 16 - May 2017
17 Indocement s Action Plan in 2017 Run P14 production (10,000 tpd) in full-swing by Q1/2017 will help to reduce further production cost by about USD 7-8 per ton Optimize product mix from 13 line of cement production will bring competitive advantages of Indocement to introduce different type of cement (OPC, PCC, PPC, TR Rapid, PCC Industry and future products- slag cement) Clinker exports and domestic clinker sales will be done more during oversupply. (2016: cement export 72,000 ton, clinker export 319,000 ton; target 2017: cement export 168,000 ton, clinker export 333,000 ton) Strengthen our Pull demand in bagged cement segment from end-user customers and Retail/ Distribution channel to strengthen our Brand, TIGA RODA Cement Using RAJAWALI brand as fighting brand to get some volume for customer who perceive cement as commodity product and in low-price cement segment - in competition with 2 nd tier brands out of new players Strong balance sheet with no gearing is an important winning factor in competition and in future consolidation phase if happen in near future Slide 17 - May 2017
18 New Brand of RAJAWALI as fighting brand The public need for cement at affordable prices is increasing signed by new entry cement players growth. Indocement realizes the importance of building every home in Indonesia with quality products. Semen Rajawali present is to answer the needs of the community for cement with guaranteed quality and affordable price. Through its existing distribution channel, Rajawali was initially launched on Oct 10, 2016 with presence in three cities in 2016 and will be introduced to all cities in West Java in Currently available on 9 cities in West Java, 3 Cities in Banten, and 5 Cities in Central Java. Sticky, Strong & More environmentally cement product!!! Quality assurance from Indocement. Produced with Indocement standard technology, equipment and materials, Semen Rajawali has a very consistent quality. Not easy to crack. Specially designed for easy builders as it suitable for any building type from structural work, plaster, acian and others. Manufactured with environmentally friendly technology. Affordable prices! Slide 18 - May 2017
19 End User Program Slide 19 - May 2017 source:
20 41 Years Building Indonesia KOKOH Slide 20 - May 2017 THANK YOU
21 Important Notice Disclaimer This presentation contains general information which provided without any representations or warranties, express or implied and does not constitute or form part of, and is not made in connection with, any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation, recommendation, or invitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any securities nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract, commitment, or investment decision whatsoever. Terms of Use Slides prepared in this presentation are strictly confidential and have been prepared as a support for verbal discussions only. The information contained in this presentation is being presented to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person, in whole or in part. You acknowledge that, because of the limited nature of communication through our presentation features, any assistance you may receive using any such features is likely to be incomplete and may even be misleading. Forward-Looking Statements This presentation includes forward-looking statements, which are based on the expectation or forecast about future events, formed by Indocement after reviewing existing data and research. Such statements involve known and unknown risks including factors such as: (i)global macroeconomic and geopolitical situations; (ii) Indonesia macroeconomic and geopolitical situation; (iii) Competition from incumbents and new players; (iii) Changes in laws, regulation, taxation, or accounting standards or practices; (iv) Acquisitions, divestitures, and various business opportunities that we may pursue; (v)force majeure; (vi)labor unrest or other similar situations; (vii)outcome of pending or threatened litigation Indocement does not give assurance that such outcome will be attained. If you have any specific questions about any legal, financial or tax matter, you should consult your lawyer/financial/tax Consultant or other professional legal services provider. For further information please contact PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk. Wisma Indocemen, 8th Floor Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav Jakarta 12910, Indonesia Phone : investor.relations@indocement.co.id. 2017, PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk. All rights reserved. Slide 21 - May 2017
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