The effect of climate change on the geographical distribution of Queensland fruit fly in Australia. Bernie Dominiak and Marja Simpson
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1 The effect of climate change on the geographical distribution of Queensland fruit fly in Australia Bernie Dominiak and Marja Simpson
2 Introduction Climate change in Australia What is species distribution modelling (SDM) CLIMEX biogeographic modelling tool Case study on Queensland fruit fly Current distribution Future climate projections of Queensland fruit fly distribution Adaptation for horticulture industries Summary
3 Climate change in Australia Since 2000 change in traditional rainfall zones. General increase in summer rainfall and decrease in winter rainfall across Australia Source: AEGIC (2016)
4 What is Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) Estimation of potential geographical ranges of a species occurrence or abundance based on climatic and environmental variables Simulation of a species distribution for regions, point locations and times No trapping data used
5 How does Species Distribution modelling work? Global scale Presence / absence data Limiting climatic factors; heat, cold, moisture stress Bioclimatic niche Potential distribution based on climatic suitability Topography, soil types, land use, disturbance, dispersal Realised distribution Local scale Damage niche
6 CLIMEX biogeographic modelling tool Simulates the mechanisms that limit species geographical distributions Calibrated for Queensland fruit fly Determines seasonal phenology and abundance How a species responds to climatic variables at temporal scales (eg. daily, weekly, yearly) Climate matching Modelling of one species, two species and species interaction Comparison of years Can add rainfall (urban irrigation)
7 Case study Queensland fruit fly Modelled current distribution using an irrigation scenario to represent a commercial orchard environment Distribution and abundance was modelled by using climatic factors, eg. Upper and lower temperature thresholds, soil moisture requirements, heat stress and cold stress. Future climate projections were used to model Qfly distribution and abundance for future time periods and horticultural production areas
8 Production of horticultural commodities (t) in Source: ABS, 2011
9 Current Qfly distribution and abundance
10 Projection for distribution for 2030, two climate models and emission scenarios
11 Projection for distribution for 2050, two climate models and emission scenarios
12 Projection for abundance for 2030, two climate models and emission scenarios
13 Projection for abundance for 2050, two climate models and emission scenarios
14 Adaptation of horticulture industries Recognise that change is coming for Australia In southern areas, longer periods for control can be expected Market access protocols in northern NSW will need to reflect Queensland experience The potential for winter window will be more challenging than in the past Need to develop a systems approach in keeping with International Standards for Phytosanitary Measures
15 Summary Global Climate Models represent plausible projections of future climates Using a representative range of models therefore produces a range of results Both models show that climatic suitability can be expected to shift southward Projections for increasing summer rainfall and warmer winter temperatures for southern Australia will be of benefit to Qfly establishment Area freedom status is highly valuable for horticulture industries, however climate projections indicate this management status may not be viable long-term Alternative management systems are required for example Pest Free Place of Production (PFPP) Future climatic work will look at modelling at finer resolution scale and focus on selected regions
16 Final comments If this is happening to Queensland fruit fly, what is happening to the other species? Thanks for listening Questions?
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