Climate Change Adaptation Position Paper

Transcription

1 Climate Change Adaptation Position Paper Assessing the impact on rail infrastructure Rail Providing Solutions Today

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS... 2 Executive Summary... 3 About this report Why is adaptation planning important for rail... 8 Climate change variables and rail infrastructure planning... 9 Rail in Australia Longevity of rail infrastructure Cost of mistakes Continuity and cost-benefit Climate change: Getting the basics right Climate risk assessments and adaptation planning Climate modelling and scenarios Climate change data in Australia Climate variables How Australia s climate will change Further actions References Appendix A Detailed risks Appendix B Useful reference and data list

3 Executive Summary In December 2010 to January 2011, Queensland experienced some of the most destructive extreme weather events in history. Extended periods of heavy rain caused massive flooding to the South East and central Queensland. 35 people were killed. 200,000 people and over 70 towns were affected. Reconstruction costs have been estimated at $10bn 1. Reconstruction costs for the rail industry are estimated to be approximately $1bn. There is some debate as to whether recent events such as the Queensland floods, Cyclone Yasi, the 2009 Victorian heatwaves are a result of global warming. The policy and regulatory landscape governing issues relating to climatic events are ever changing. New Australian standards are being developed, the International Panel on Climate Change will provide updated analysis on climate change in 2014, and the Productivity Commission However the global scientific community is clear that climate change will impact extreme weather events and for a large part of Australia, these events will become more severe 2. Warming and associated climatic changes will have serious consequences for Australia. Given our coastal populations and fragile water and agricultural resources, the CSIRO believes Australia to be one of the most vulnerable developed countries to climate changes. The primary climatic change events include: Increased average temperatures and increased numbers of extreme heat events; Increased incidence of extreme precipitation and drought events; Rising sea levels; Changing humidity patterns; and Increased incidence of weather events such as high winds. These events will lead to greater flooding, water resource insecurity, bushfires and natural disasters. For the rail industry, climatic changes will impact rail infrastructure. Whilst the severity of these impacts is not currently understood, the types of impacts include: Track failures (buckling, mechanical, electrical failure) due to more extreme temperature days 1 IBISWorld, Queensland Floods: Economic Impact, January CSIRO, Adaptation science - Opportunities and responses to climate change impacts 3

4 Increased risk of flood and storm damage to track infrastructure Sea level rise flooding coastal tracks, yards and other infrastructure Wind damage to overhead lines Track failure due to decreased soil stability and increased erosion Increased bushfire damage risk Other climate change impacts which will have an indirect impact on rail operations (which are outside the scope of this report), include: Reduced grain crop leading to reductions in rural services and revenue Decrease in rainfall in southern Australia leading to increases in dust and sand drifts affecting services Higher temperatures leading to increase in heat stress for outdoor workers and passengers Higher temperatures leading to increased costs of air conditioning in stations and on passenger services (both capital and operating costs) and possible power overloads and failures on operational systems Climate change impacts could have catastrophic effects on rail infrastructure in Australia. Events previously assumed to be one hundred year events may now be more frequent and more damaging. Adapting large-scale infrastructure such as rail, to climate change, is a formidable challenge. Rail infrastructure is vast, has an extremely long useful life and decisions made now will have impact on whether or not future generations will be granted the same level of mobility and supply chain efficiencies we now experience. Future proofing Australia s rail infrastructure requires time and resources. The rail industry, like most industries in Australia and across the world, does not have a strong understanding of its vulnerability to climate change events. There is certainly no systemic industry approach in identifying and assessing climate change risks. This initial analysis is the first step in adaptation planning for the rail industry. To succeed in future proofing critical infrastructure, the industry will need to drive a long-term programme of activities aimed at mitigating a select group of important risks. To achieve success in adapting rail ageing infrastructure to Australia s likely future climate, the industry will need to undertake some further activities. 4

5 This position paper includes recommendation on a structured framework and associated guidance to promote good decision-making. This should enable the rail industry to recognise and evaluate the risks posed by a changing climate, making the best use of available information about climate change, its impacts and appropriate adaptive responses. The paper reviews methods and techniques for climate risk assessment, and in particular gives guidance on the appropriate use of climate change projections/forecasting and modelling. Using these methods will be important in delivering adaptation responses that are successful in the face of an uncertain future. 1. Agree to common baseline assumptions to be used as standard in the industry (subject to change as climate data evolves and improves): a. Climate scenario: Scenario to be used is A1F1 (see Section 2 for more details) b. Variables to consider as a minimum: i. Extreme temperature events ii. iii. iv. Extreme rainfall events (flooding) Sea level rise Storm surge and storm tide v. Storms vi. vii. Cyclones Fire danger index (relative humidity and drought conditions) c. Data sources (see It is suggested that the rail industry use the data prepared by the CSIRO and BoM as presented in the Climate Change in Australia Technical Report and OzClim. It is suggested that the rail industry also use the data prepared by the relevant State agencies. Where the data differs should be highlighted and provides critical sensitivity analysis for the projections. Other national and state based guidelines and standards should also be referenced such as for flooding projections essential input will be the Engineers Australia Rainfall and Runoff Report when it is made available. See relevant state agencies for advice on the most recent guidance material. It should be noted that the availability of granular data varies significantly between sources, and in many d. Table 2 for more details): 5

6 i. Climate change in Australia Technical report 2007 ii. OzClim iii. Engineers Australia Annual Rainfall and Runoff (Revised version due 2014) e. Minimum Risks to be analysed (see Table 10) 2. Industry to meet with key research organisations to confirm climate modelling data and scenarios 3. Undertake organisational level risk assessments to determine key infrastructure vulnerability to climate change and internally prioritise any adaptation actions 4. Collate industry wide comprehensive risk analysis of critical rail infrastructure 5. Form a working group comprised of industry and government to guide adaptation prioritisation and a program of works to address critically important areas of rail infrastructure Future-proofing our rail infrastructure will be highly dependent on the involvement and participation of key stakeholders. These include State and Commonwealth Governments, climate scientists, research organisations, rail operators and customers. It will involve embedding the concepts of adaptation and continuity into the planning, development, maintenance and improvement programs of all the major rail infrastructure owners. Climate change adaptation for Australia s supporting infrastructure is a serious issue for both industry and for government. Whilst the scale of the task is large, the risks associated with inaction are considerable and potentially debilitating for some of Australia s largest and most profitable industries. 6

7 About this report The Rail Industry in Australia is committed to sustainability and as such has commissioned this position paper on climate change adaptation. The paper has been developed through industry consultation with major rail operators and infrastructure owners. This paper has also been peer reviewed by Manidis Roberts Consultants. The purpose of this report is to analyse the Rail industry s vulnerabilities to climate change and how these vulnerabilities may be managed into the future. This report outlinesas to the key climate risks to rail infrastructure based on current climate change information and provides the industry and government with a high-level view on where those vulnerabilities are and what impact they could have on the industry and the economy. The report provides recommendations for stakeholders to address these risks, provides a common reference point for the rail industry on climate change data and other tools to be used in organisation-level vulnerability assessments and outlines some of the current approaches to infrastructure analysis and climate change adaptation assessments. A detailed view of specific risks to key infrastructure and the implications for adaptation has not been performed as part of this report. To date, no rail infrastructure organisation has completed a full climate change adaptation vulnerability / risk assessment on their network (however a number of assessments are planned or underway). Queensland Rail have recently undertaken a geographically limited review of climate change adaptation risks in south east Queensland, while other rail operators are also considering similar reviews. The purpose of this report is to promote a basic framework for the Rail Industry in dealing with climate change adaptation risks. The industry should consider extending the adaptation effort to include detailed cost-benefit analysis of adapting specific and integral rail infrastructure to ensure operational continuance in the event of climate hazards occurring (see chapter 4). 7

8 1. Why is adaptation planning important for rail Adapting to future climate change is an important concept both on a national and global scale. Both ecosystems and society will need to adapt to the new climatic conditions that global warming will inevitably bring. Society will face significant challenges in adapting to global warming. This is particularly true for those systems such as agriculture that are heavily dependent on weather patterns. It also true for long-life infrastructure such as settlements or cities and transport. Where a coal fired electricity plant may only have a effective life of years, rail track well over 100 years old is still in operation in Australia and globally. Settlements infrastructure such as sewage systems, bridges and buildings in many places around the world are generations old. Assessing the risk of climate change on these assets and developing plans to address these risks will become one of the most difficult challenges for both private sector infrastructure owners and governments alike. Adaptation to climate change in rail is important to both industry and government. Without forward planning for adaption, the economy and the industry risk long delays in getting important exports such as coal and iron ore to ports, major supply chain inefficiencies and significant passenger disruption in large, population centres. Investment in climate change adaptation should be considered a priority by both industry and government due to the following reasons: It is important to our economy: Rail transports more bulk iron ore and coal from mine to port than any other mode of transport Longevity: Rail infrastructure has an extremely long life where the full effects of climate change will affect infrastructure already in place Cost of mistakes: Getting the balance right between over-engineering and current approaches is extremely important as cost implications for new works is significant Industry suitability: There are only a small number of infrastructure owners and stakeholders making the implementation of adaptation culture, technology and processes less complex Cost-benefit considerations: Rail has both public and private sector stakeholders. Where public stakeholders are involved, the social benefits from adaptation will strengthen the 8

9 cost benefit cases, improving the viability of safeguarding some of our most important national assets Climate change variables and rail infrastructure planning For existing infrastructure, the industry s approach is largely reactive with a proactive component drawing in previous incidents as a guide to future incidents. Each owner has a long term maintenance program which includes both preventative maintenance and an eventsdriven reactive maintenance process i.e. fixing faults, breakages etc. With regards to extreme weather the general approach can be classified into the following three main courses of action. Table 1 Industry approach to extreme weather risk management Event type Description Example Action Repeat events Infrastructure is affected by an extreme event but not damaged and this causes a service disruption Fires RailCorp s Coast line causing South Water on track due extreme rainfall events Decision is made to either upgrade infrastructure or leave infrastructure unchanged. Decision will be mainly based on the frequency of events experience (not forecasts due to lack of data), the loss incurred through lack of service and the cost of the upgrades Damaged infrastructure Where a piece of infrastructure is damaged during an extreme weather event Western Rail Line (Queensland) near Spring Bluff Extreme Event Rainfal Rebuild decision to build to current standards or to build to a new standard intended to withstand extreme weather event 25m deep landslide destroying track Anticipated event Where an extreme event is anticipated and actions are taken to avoid damage Maintaining fire breaks and clear areas around stations Some decisions will be made in anticipation of events. Managing bushfire hazards are one example of this practice. However in general, this is not adopted for flooding, cyclones, heatwaves or storms as they are much more difficult to predict and the cost of upgrading is considerably higher Due to the relative infrequency of extreme weather events, rail infrastructure risk planning and maintenance has been more reactionary than precautionary. Scientific evidence linking climate 9

10 change to increasingly severe weather events and a recent succession of unpredictably destructive weather in Australia should provide a catalyst for this to change. Rail in Australia Australia s economy relies heavily on our ability to leverage rail infrastructure, which accounts for approximately 39% of the total freight task. Rail is of particular importance to transport of bulk good such as coal and iron ore from the mine to the port where it is integral to almost all export sales of these goods. In our cities, million passenger journeys were undertaken in Rail is an important contributor to reducing congestion in our cities. A recent study by Deloitte Access Economics estimated that each urban passenger journey would reduce congestion costs in our major cities by between $2 and $7. The North Coast line carries 11 million net tonnes of product annually, including containerised freight, sugar, grain, minerals and cattle. In addition approximately 63% of Australia s coal exports are derived from Queensland mines, with 96% being exported from ports in cyclone prone areas and being transported from the mine to the port via rail. More intense tropical cyclones in this area of Australia, has the potential not only to impact the rail industry, but also the mining industry. Black coal exports were worth approximately $43bn in It is the second largest goods and services export in Australia. Figure 1 Coal exports by port (millions of tonnes, 09/10) 10

11 Longevity of rail infrastructure One of the major reasons why climate change is important to rail is that its infrastructure has an extremely long life. Assets built today are required to operate for up to 100 years. According to the analysis, the climate will change considerably in the next 100 years, and rail infrastructure needs to account for that now. One of the major difficulties with adapting rail infrastructure for climate change is the expected life of these assets. In Australia we have rail track that is over 100 years old in some areas. Flinders St Station which handles over 110,000 passengers per day, being the most used metropolitan railway station in Australia was built in Old track has been built to various standards as they evolved over a number of decades. The track owners periodically maintain the track to current standards. No climate change assumptions have been built into building standards to date. The predictions for climate change include some significant increases in key variables over the next century with potential to severely damage rail infrastructure. This is of particular concern to track owners as large proportions of current track infrastructure are not expected to be replaced or materially upgraded in the next years. Cost of mistakes There is consensus by track owners that to build rail infrastructure that is more resilient to risks associated with a changing climate will be considerably more expensive. Current engineering standards and rainfall and runoff tables do not account for future changes in climate variables. In some cases the financial benefits to track owners of this over-engineering do not outweigh the additional construction costs. This is compounded by the lack of accuracy (variable changes and geographic impact) in data on climate change and extreme weather events (most importantly flooding) that is not likely to satisfy the requirements of a financial business case. Continuity and cost-benefit Continuity is extremely important not only for rail industry, but also for those industries and passengers that rely on rail services. A track owner may be able to sustain losses in the short term due to an incident or extreme weather event, however small operators of organisations that depend on rail may suffer significant damages to their operations. In some competitive marketplaces where continuity of service and minimal service disruptions can be a market differentiator, avoiding catastrophic risks such as extreme weather events may 11

12 factor more significantly into the decision making process. However, in the delivery of rail infrastructure in a highly regulated market, where operators drive for lower access fees and passengers demand lower fares, the cost of managing extreme weather risks, in many cases, does not have a strong financial case. In extreme weather events, service disruptions also cause negative externalities on the local economies through the loss of passenger mobility and goods transportation. These losses are not usually quantified or included when business cases for developing or upgrading rail infrastructure to account for extreme weather events are compiled. IBISWorld estimate that lost revenue to rail during the Queensland floods in Jan 2011, to be approximately $26m with a repair bill of over $1bn. The lost revenue to the mining industry was over $2.5bn for that period due to weather affecting mining, rail and port infrastructure. 12

13 2. Climate change: Getting the basics right Australia s climate is likely to change due to global warming. These changes will include higher temperatures, altered rainfall patterns, higher sea levels and more frequent or intense extreme events such as heatwaves, droughts, storms and cyclones. These changes will not be uniform across Australia and will impact Australia s regions and the rail industry in different ways. The CSIRO has summarised the following key findings: Australia is likely to become warmer, with uncertain rainfall changes in the north, and less rainfall and more droughts in the south. Heat waves and heavy rain events are likely to become more frequent worldwide, with less snow, more fires, more heavy rainfall events and more intense cyclones. Sea-ice and snow cover are projected to shrink. Rainfall is very likely to increase in high latitudes and likely to decrease in most sub-tropical and temperate land areas. The area affected by droughts is likely to increase and tropical cyclones are likely to become more intense. 3 These projected changes from global warming are likely to impact the way we live over the next century. Increased droughts will affect food production. Heavy rains will increase flooding affecting housing and basic infrastructure. Sea level rise and storm surges will put low-lying infrastructure and residential populations at risk. Climate Variables Estimates of future climate usually called climate change projections or scenarios are very important in assisting in identifying possible impacts of climate change on an area or project. Climate change projections for Australia are developed by CSIRO from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global climate change projections, which are based upon a range of 3 CSIRO website 13

14 computer-based models of global climate and future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Projections for climate change variables for 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100 are widely used. For each of these future timeframes the projections cover three greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) scenarios High, Medium and Low. In many instances State governments have also produced refined down-scaled or regional catchment based projections. Because there are a range of uncertainties around these there are varying levels of confidence regarding estimates of future trends in key climate parameters. The nature, rate and extent of climate change will differ across a State or region and downscaled projections have a reduced range of uncertainty associated with them. Where possible State produced catchment level projections should be used. As a general guideline, the key climate variables (e.g. temperature, sea level rise etc) and associated climate change impacts (e.g. increased storms, bushfire etc) are illustrated in the following diagram Figure 5. The relationship between a climate variable, the projection of change to the climate variable and a climate change impact are illustrated in Figure X below. Figure 6 Linkage between the climate change and risk 14

15 Assessing vulnerability to current climatic variability will make it easier to consider how future climate change might affect the project. Assessing climate change impacts from climate change variables has it complexities as the variable will impact differently across different regions and over time. Some impacts will have a strong geographic variation, while others, such as heat waves, will be felt almost equally. Some will have important implications for the location of various land uses (e.g. cyclones, storm surge, flooding), whilst others will have less implications (e.g. increasing temperatures). For instance the topography of the local area is an important factor influences the climate change variable sea level rise particularly for low lying coastal areas and areas susceptible to flooding. It is expected that some variables such as sea level will rise gradually over many years. Changes to the natural environment such as species and ecosystems may be gradual as to be almost imperceptible. Assessment will need to accommodate these gradual, incremental changes. On the other hand the climate change impacts such as storms, cyclones and heat waves are highly visible, sudden, and extreme events that require disaster planning. For example, the assessment will need to take account of average climate changes, such as seasonal temperature increases, as well as changes in extreme climatic conditions, such as heatwave events. While extreme climatic events are by definition rare, they often have the most significant impacts. Unfortunately, they are also difficult to predict, so information on climate extremes is more uncertain. Understanding how this variation applies is useful for making assessments and planning effective adaptation measures. Vulnerability Vulnerability are important considerations in climate change impact assessment. Vulnerability is a function of project s sensitivity to climatic variability, the exposure to climate risk, and the inherent capacity to adapt. It is helpful to identify how particular types of weather have affected assets and services in the past, and what the consequences of those weather events were. Where possible, critical thresholds will need to be identified, which when exceeded, brought unacceptable losses or infrastructure breakdown alternatively this could have opened up a new opportunity. There is also a need to think about how much risk the client is prepared to tolerate, as this will inform the extent of assessment and ultimate adaptation needed. 15

16 Vulnerability to changes in mean climate may be less obvious, and therefore more difficult to foresee than vulnerability to changes in climate extremes. Changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme values of climate variables are also more difficult to predict, and more uncertain, than changes in mean values. Risk Assessment To date most climate change assessments have used the Australian Standard for Risk Management AS 4360: 2004, recently replaced by AS/NZS ISO Risk Management - Principles and Guidelines risk management framework,. To guide this work the Australian Greenhouse Office (AGO), now the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency (DCCEE) has also developed a generic methodology based on the original risk standard AS 4360: 2004 for assessing climate change risks and developing an adaptation action plan (Climate Change Impacts and Risk Management: A Guide for Business and Government, AGO 2006). In the rail sector, changes to key climate variables are likely to impact rail track, overhead lines, stations, bridges, yards, tunnels and other infrastructure. Likely causes of increased risk will be increased flooding, storm surges, cyclones, heatwaves and bushfires. To adapt to these changes in climate variables, Australia s rail industry and government need to understand how they are expected to change over the years. It also will need to agree to a common set of assumptions to be used by the industry in developing approaches to adaptation. It is important for the rail industry to agree on various common parameters and assumptions to be used in climate change adaptation assessments. This will enable more effective national level analysis and prioritisation of adaptation activities. Developing a common set of climate assumptions for the rail industry to use is complicated by the following key issues which will be outlined in this section: Multiple scenarios: The IPCC has developed multiple global scenarios that are based on assumptions on population growth, predominant energy sources, global interconnectivity etc. Each model has different resulting degrees of global warming. Multiple models: When developing the IPCC 4 th Assessment Report, climate scientists utilised data from 23 different climate change models. Each of these models address 16

17 different combinations of variables. In addition no scenario and model should be analysed for more than one variable 4. Diversity of Australian Climate: Australia is a large country with considerable differences in climate from region to region. These range from tropical and semitropical regions in the north to enormous regions of arid land in the centre and west of Australia. Table of variables: Rail infrastructure will be affected by changes in a number of climate variables. These variables have interdependencies and also have the potential to affect different types of rail infrastructure in various ways. Changing nature of climate science: Climate science is constantly being updated with more up to date data (climate variables are constantly monitored) and up to date models. Difficulties arise in developing static assumptions to be used in decision making for long life assets

18 3. Climate risk assessments and adaptation planning This paper suggests using the following climate parameters for the purposes of climate risk assessments and adaptation planningl. As climate science and data is being constantly updated, these should be viewed as point in time recommendations. They should be reviewed periodically as new data is released through the IPCC, CSIRO and other notable scientific organisations. These assumptions are outlined in more detail in this section of the report. Key adaptation assessment climate assumptions: 1. Climate Scenario: A1F1 - rapid economic growth, global population reaching 9 billion then gradually declines, income and way of life converging between countries and regions and emphasis on fossil fuels 2. Data: a. Climate Change in Australia Technical Report 2007 (CSIRO / BoM) b. OzClim Climate Change Scenario Generator (CSIRO) c. Engineers Australia Rainfall and Runoff Revision Report (due 2014 although some information may be available sooner) 3. Variables Primary variables a. Increased precipitation b. Increased average temperature c. Changing patterns of humidity d. Increased incidence of extreme weather events Secondary variables that are dependent on primary variables a. Fire danger index b. Storm surges and storms tide c. Flooding, drought condition, wind, storms, extreme heat Climate modelling and scenarios All climate models are developed using baseline scenarios developed by the IPCC. Climate Change in Australia (BOM and CSIRO, 2007) developed a series predictions for 23 climate variables, utilised 23 climate models and six climate scenarios (IPCC 2007 Scenarios). This 18

19 analysis is contained in the Climate Change in Australia 2007 Technical Report. The scenarios outlined represent the main scenarios used in policy analysis: 1. A1 More integrated world: rapid economic growth global population reaching 9 billion then gradually declines quick spread of new and efficient technologies income and way of life converging between countries and regions 2. A1B As above with a balanced emphasis on fossil and non-fossil energy sources 3. A1F1 As above with emphasis on fossil fuels 4. B1 - world more integrated, and more ecologically friendly. Rapid economic growth as in A1, but with rapid changes towards a service and information economy. Population rising to 9 billion in 2050 and then declining as in A1. Reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource efficient technologies. An emphasis on global solutions to economic, social and environmental stability. The other scenarios include heavy reliance on alternative energy (A1T and B2) and a divergent world (A2 and B2). They are not outlined in Table 3. There is no mandated position on which climate scenario to use when attempting to analyse climate variables. A recent study into inland flooding in Queensland concluded the A1F1 scenario should be used. This was on the basis that emissions are tracking at above the rates in this scenario (a high emissions scenario) 5. It is suggested that the rail industry adopt this approach on this basis. Climate change data in Australia Based on the assumptions and overall global forecasts contained in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change s (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report and various other recognised global climate forecasting models the CSIRO, other research agencies and government departments have committed considerable resources to forecasting climate change impact. 5 Increasing Queensland s resilience to inland flooding in changing climate: Final Scientific Advisory Group report 19

20 It is suggested that the rail industry use the data prepared by the CSIRO and BoM as presented in the Climate Change in Australia Technical Report and OzClim. It is suggested that the rail industry also use the data prepared by the relevant State agencies. Where the data differs should be highlighted and provides critical sensitivity analysis for the projections. Other national and state based guidelines and standards should also be referenced such as for flooding projections essential input will be the Engineers Australia Rainfall and Runoff Report when it is made available. See relevant state agencies for advice on the most recent guidance material. It should be noted that the availability of granular data varies significantly between sources, and in many Table 2 - Key Australian climate change data sources Data source Description Climate Change in Australia Technical Report 2007 CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology technical paper and data on climate change impacts in Australia. An online climate change scenario developer. It allows users to : generate climate change scenarios OzClim Climate Change Scenario Generator explore climate scenarios from 2020 to 2100 be guided through the process of generating your own climate scenarios download maps and projections data for non-commercial research Engineers Australia Revised Rainfall and Runoff report (not yet available) Indian Ocean Climate Initiative NSW Climate impact Profile Australian Rainfall and Runoff (ARR) is a national guideline document for the estimation of design flood characteristics in Australia. The current 1987/1999 is now being revised and updated with new data including climate change projections. A partnership of the State, CSIRO, and the Bureau of Meteorology, formed by the Western Australian Government to support informed decision-making, on climate variability and change in WA. Research is themed into the following categories: WA climate baseline Current and future climate of north-west WA Very high resolution climate projections for South-West WA Future climate information on NSW State Plan regions, covering the likely changes in climate, including: 20

21 Data source Description temperature, rainfall and evaporation by 2050 physical consequences of these climate changes (rise in sea level and changes in run-off, flooding behaviour and fire regimes), and the subsequent impacts of projected climate change and associated changes in physical processes on: lands (soils and soil processes) settlements (storm and flood damage),and ecosystems (biological communities, individual species and ecological processes). Queensland Office of Climate Change Queensland Department of Environment and Resources Various climate change adaptation publications and case studies on adaptation planning and strategies The Plan provides guidance on climate hazard assessments and mitigation strategies as it relates to the changing coastal environment. Coastal Plan Increasing Queensland s Scientific study into the climate parameters that Queensland s policy makers should be using in relation to inland flooding. Main findings were: resilience to inland flooding in a changing climate: Final Scientific Advisory Report an increase in rainfall intensity is likely the available scientific literature indicates this increased rainfall intensity to be in the range of 3 10% per degree of global warming more detailed analysis is required to firmly establish such a figure and this work will be undertaken as part of the review of Australian Rainfall and Runoff. Climate Futures for Tasmania Climate change projections at a local scale for Tasmania. Is based on detailed modelling using dynamic downscaling from the global climate model to 10km simulations using the CSIRO s Conformal Cubic Atmosphere Model (CCAM) Tasmania has undertaken one of the most detailed downscaling of climate models in Australia. South Australian Research and Development Institute s Regional Climate Change Projections Regional projections for various climate variables in South Australia. No additional downscaling (using Climate Change In Australia Technical Report 2007 as basis). Table 2 is an example of the level of detail contained in the Climate Change in Australia Technical Report The data is for scenarios A1B, B1 and A1F1 and in a low (10 th percentile), most likely (50 th percentile) and high (90 th percentile) range. 21

22 Table 3 - Climate Change in Australia variable prediction under climate scenarios A1B, B1, A1F1 for Sydney, NSW Variable Season 2030 A1B Temperature (ºC) Increases NO. of days over 35ºC (currently 3.5) 10 th 2030 A1B 50 th 2030 A1B 90 th 2070 B1 10 th 2070 B1 50 th 2070 B1 90 th 2070 A1F1 10 th 2070 A1F1 Annual Summer Autumn Winter Spring th 2070 A1F1 Annual Rainfall (%) Annual Potential Evaporation (%) Summer Autumn Winter Spring Annual Summer Autumn Winter Spring Wind Speed (%) Annual Relative Humidity (%) Solar (%) Radiation Summer Autumn Winter Spring Annual Annual th Climate variables Most analysis has focussed on variables such as average temperature increases and average rainfall increases. These are modelled and available for Australia as part of the OzClim project. Data for other variables including relative humidity, solar radiation, sea surface temperatures, wind speed change and potential evaporation is also available. 22

23 The highlighted variables in Table 3 will impact rail infrastructure. Table 3 also details how the various climate change variables have been modelled / analysed to form projections for the Australian climate and what projection timeframes are currently available for each variable. Table 4 - Climate Change in Australia - Availability of modelling and forecasts for variables Variable Year Models Scenarios Average Temperature* X X X 23 {all in Table 4.1} 6 Hot days X X 23 {all in Table 4.1} A1B, B1, A1F1, Warm nights X X x 9 {4,7,8,13,14,16,19,21,20} A2,A1B,B1 Extreme temperature host x 10{2,4,5,7,8,11,14,16,18,19} and downscaling A2,B1 Average Precipitation x x x 23{all in Table 4.1} 6 Precipitation intensity x x x 9 {4,7,8,13,14,16,19,21,20} A2,A1B,B1 Dry days x x x 9 {4,7,8,13,14,16,19,21,20} A2,A1B,B1 Extreme daily x 13{2,3,4,5,7,9,12,13,14,15,17,18,19,20,21} B1,A1B,A1F1 precipitation Snow x 9 {a} B1, A1F1 Relative humidity* x x X 14{2,3,5,6,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,19,20} 6 Solar radiation* x x x 20{1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,10,11,12,15,16,17,18,19,20,21 6,22,23 Potential evaporation x x x 14{2,3,5,6,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,19,20} 6 Drought x x 2{0} B1,A1F1 Average wind* x x x 19{2,3,4,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,2 2,23} Extreme daily wind 4 {7,13,18,19} Fire x 2 {5,6} B1,A1F1 Sea level rise Literature review Ocean thermal expansion x x x 17{1,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,14,15,16,17,18,19,22,23} A1B Oceanic storm surges Literature review Sea surface temperature* x x x 12 {2,3,5,9,10,11,13,17,19,21,22,23} 6 Ocean acidification x 1{5} A2 East Australian Current Literature review Tropical Cyclones x x 1 {5} and downscaling (RAMS) A2 Tornadoes Literature review Hall X x 1{5} A2 East coast laws Literature review ENSO 1{5} B1,A1B1A2 Southern Annular Mode Southern storm tracks Literature review Literature review 6 23

24 How Australia s climate will change ``Key vulnerabilities and exposure for rail assets to climate change (ASRC 2009) Hazard Vulnerability Exposure Increase in extreme rainfall (flooding) Inland inundation from sea level rise (SLR) Increase in frequency and severity of heat waves Inundation of assets. Track and other infrastructure integrity. Electrical inundation and failure. Isolated staff and commuters. Landsides. Reduction in track integrity. Asset inundation. Asset, staff and community isolation. Storm drain inundation. Track buckling. Power integrity (brownout and blackout). Commuters and staff. Low lying track and electrical equipment. Stabling yards. Level crossings. Low lying and inundation prone stations. Multiple points of network cut off. Permanent low lying coastal and inland asset inundation. Advanced corrosion of infrastructure. Temporary inundation of low-lying assets (storm surge). Transmission line feed in from high impact point of temperature rise. Solar radiation impacts on a variety of assets, staff and commuters. Climate change and extreme weather events The difficulty for climate risk assessment and adaptation planning in infrastructure is that most important variables relate to extreme weather events and not average temperature or rainfall increases. The inherent complexity in predicting extreme weather events is in the fact that they are not caused by one single factor. Whilst there is data relating to number of days expected above 35ºC, forecasts for other information such as flooding, extreme storms and extreme wind events are not yet readily available. There are however some estimates published by the Australian Government and the CSIRO that may assist the rail industry to understand any increases in risk as a result of climate change. In some case detailed and recent climate modelling and or impact modelling, such as flooding, can be sourced from State agencies or research bodies such as the Bushfire CRC. Where available this modelling should be accessed and cross-referenced to provide greater confidence in the assessment results. This will be particularly important for assets and services in areas thought to be particularly vulnerable to known current climatic conditions. Extreme temperature events 24

25 Extreme temperature events are measured in days per year, over or under certain temperature thresholds. In Australia, with relevance to rail, the key concern is extremely high temperature days, where tracks can buckle and/or mechanical or electrical systems can fail. A recent example where this occurred was during Melbourne s heatwaves in January 2009 where several tracks experience some buckling, causing delays and urgent remediation. Table 5 - expected number of days over 35ºC for major Australian cities. Variable Current number 2030 A1B 10 th 2030 A1B 50 th 2030 A1B 90 th 2070 B1 10 th 2070 B1 50 th 2070 B1 90 th 2070 A1F1 10 th 2070 A1F1 50 th 2070 A1F1 90 th Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Perth Adelaide Canberra Darwin Hobart Further data on regional areas is available through the This data should be used as the basis of any risk analysis on the effect of extreme temperature on rail infrastructure 6. Extreme rainfall events (flooding) Most floods in Australia are a result of extreme sustained rainfall or coastal storm surges caused by severe sea storms or tropical cyclones. Flooding can affect rail infrastructure in the following ways: Water covering tracks Track damage and landslides Overhead line damage Bridge log jams and damage Electrical damage to control units and switches Yard damage 6 It is understood that the temperature threshold of 35ºC may not be the right threshold for rail applications. Climate projections are improving rapidly and information on high thresholds may become available through CSIRO, BOM or other organisations 25

26 Station damage Flood risk is typically based on analysis of past historical data. Organisations usually make infrastructure decisions based on historical data and flood modelling if available. Key indicators include Annual Exceedence Probability (AEP) and often a risk of 1% AEP (i.e. there is a 1% chance that a flood of this size will occur every year). Climate change analysis has concluded that the size of the 1% AEP will be increased from its current level due to global warming. The magnitude of the increases and their impact on flooding on a region-by-region basis may be slightly more difficult to forecast. The main source of flooding data is the Engineers Australia Rainfall and Runoff data and flood frequency analysis methodology. This report however has not been updated for 23 years and does not account for any climate changes due to global warming. Currently this it being updated, however it will not be available until It will include consideration for climate change and the resulting impact on rainfall levels in different parts of the country 7. Climate Change in Australia have modelled the high level indicator, daily precipitation intensity (rain per rain day). Figure minus in precipitation intensity (mm.day) for the A1B scenario (Climate Change in Australia - Technical Report 2007) An increase in daily precipitation intensity (rain per rain day) and the number of dry days is likely. Extreme daily precipitation (highest 1%) tends to increase in the north and decrease in the south with widespread increases in summer and autumn, but not in the south in winter and spring where there is a strong decrease in mean precipitation Following the Queensland floods in January 2011, the Queensland government commissioned a report titled Increasing Queensland s resilience to inland flooding in a changing climate: Final report on the Inland Flooding Study. It concluded that policy makers in Queensland should use a 5 per cent increase in rainfall intensity for each degree of global warming. This should be 7 Engineers Australia, Australian Rainfall and Runoff, Revision Projects and Document Updating 26

27 incorporated into the Q100, Q200 and Q500 AEP. This should also be updated as soon as the Engineers Australia Annual Rainfall and Runoff Revision Project is finalised. 27

28 Sea level rise Sea level is almost certain to rise between now and Global estimates range from 18cm to 59cm. Some CSIRO analysis has indicated that sea levels along the east coast may rise by an additional 10cm over the global average due to the strengthening of the East Australian Current. Table 6 - IPCC Fourth Assessment Report estimates of global Average sea level rise by 2100, Relative to 1990(from IPCC (2007a) Table SPM-3} for six IPCC emissions scenarios. Emissions scenario Central estimate Estimate range B1 28 cm cm A1T 33 cm cm B2 32 cm cm A1B 35 cm cm A2 37 cm cm A1F1 43 cm cm Sea level rise may impact track and yards that service ports. Australia has several of these low lying sections of rail, the majority of which carry bulk cargo such as coal and iron ore for export. Sea level rise, combined with increases in storm surges will have a significantly detrimental effect on rail infrastructure. Storm surge and storm tide A storm surge is a rise above the normal water level along a shore that is the result of strong onshore winds and / or reduced atmospheric pressure. Storm surges accompany a tropical cyclone as it comes ashore. They may also be formed by intense low-pressure systems in nontropical areas Bureau of Meteorology. Storm surges are most damaging when combined with high tides. These are often called storm tides. Recent storm surges occurred during cyclone Yasi in north Queensland and caused significant damage to the city through flooding and inundation. 28

29 Climate change impacts such as increases in storm intensity and sea level rises have the potential to increase these storm surge inundations across Australia. Two recent studies, outlined in Climate Change in Australia Technical Report 2007 reinforces this view. Table year return levels of storm tides for selected locations along the eastern Victorian coast under current climate and 2030 and 2070 low, mid and high scenarios for wind speed and sea level rise as given in Table 5.10 {from McInnes et al. 2005n}. Location Current Climate Low Mid High Low Mid High (m) (m) (m) (m) (m) (m) (m) Port Welshpool Port Franklin Port Albert Lakes Entrance Metung Paynesville Figure 3 Cairns storm surge example The inundation produced by the top 5% of storm surge simulations (100-year return period and greater) under current climate conditions and conditions assuming a 10% increase in tropical cyclone intensity by The road network of Cairns is shown in black to highlight the urban impact of the inundation (Source: McInnes et al 2003) Storm surges can have a devastating impact on rail infrastructure, particularly yard and tracks close to ports in Queensland and Western Australia where tropical cyclones are more prevalent. 29

30 Cyclones There is likely to be an increase in the proportions of cyclones in the more intense categories, but a possible decrease in the total number of cyclones (Climate Change in Australia Technical Report 2007). A recent CSIRO study indicated that the number of tropical cyclones would decrease by 44% and 9% in Western Australia and Eastern Australia respectively. It also showed that a 140% increase in storm intensity of the most severe storms by 2070 was likely. The study also indicated a shift in latitude for these storms of approximately 105km south was also likely. Figure 4 Changes in cyclone patterns Simulated change in annual average tropical cyclone occurrence in the Australian region for 40-year time slices centred on 2030 and Blue regions indicated a decrease in tropical cyclone occurrence and red region indicate an increase in occurrence. Results are from CCAM Mark3 simulations forces with the SRES A2 scenario presented in Abbs et al (Source: Climate Change in Australia Technical Report 2007) Topical cyclones can be extremely destructive to rail infrastructure. In January 2011, Cyclone Yasi caused significant damage to tracks, signals and signage from Townsville to Cairns (the North Coast line). This line was closed for 24 days following the cyclone. 30