Session 3 Moving from data to developing indicators. Emer Dennehy Energy Analyst (Energy Efficiency Indicators) Energy Technology Policy Division

Transcription

1 Sesson 3 Movng from daa o developng ndcaors mer Dennehy nergy Analys (nergy ffcency Indcaors) nergy Technology Polcy Dvson

2 Why are energy effcency ndcaors mporan? Undersand how energy s used Undersand he man facors nfluencng rends n energy use valuae he role of energy effcency o resran growh n energy consumpon valuae he mpac of exsng and fuure energy effcency polces and programmes

3 Polcy requremens Informaon abou why he end users use energy he way hey do: he drvng forces of energy demand, Informaon abou wha currenly exss and how performs; he sae of energy use, Informaon abou polcy opons and poenal mpac: he response ha polces should enable.

4 nergy ffcency Indcaors: ssenals for Polcy Makng

5 An answer o he growng number of requess Users of he manual: Polcy makers Overvew on wha s needed o consruc useful ndcaors Analyss Insgh no polcy needs Sascans Insgh no how daa colleced s used

6 ssenals for Polcy Makng Wha are he basc ndcaors & how o prorse developmen of ndcaors? Wha key nsghs do ndcaors provde no rends drvng energy use? How can hese ndcaors be used o quanfy energy effcency and rack polcy mpacs? Dscusses wha addonal daa and ndcaors are requred for more robus analyss and cross counry comparsons

7 ssenals manual srucure Broad dscusson on he mehodology Supplemened wh dealed annexes Indvdual chapers: Resdenal Servces Indusry Passenger Transpor Fregh Transpor

8 ssenals secor chaper srucure Wha s drvng energy use? How s energy beng used and how has evolved recenly? Wha secor / sub-secor / end use / echnology / process should be prorsed? Develop ndcaors by level of he pyramd Addonal ndcaors Decomposon analyss Polcy nformaon and evaluaon

9 How o ge sared? Wha s he mos energy consumng secors? Wha s he faser growng secor? Analyse By oal energy or by fuel Wha s he daa avalably? Wha level of dsaggregaon s avalable? Wha level of dsaggregaon s requred? Wha ndcaor s mos relevan for polcy developmen? Wha ndcaors are useful for cross-counry comparsons?

10 Ukranan prores Larges energy end use Indusry 42.5% TFC Resdenal 32%TFC Hea Naural gas Moblsng prvae nvesmens

11 IA nergy ffcency Indcaors Pyramdal Approach

12 Why s a pyramd used o descrbe he herarchy of nergy ffcency Indcaors? mphasse ha he more daa avalable he more meanng ndcaors can be calculaed Level 1 Secor or oal fuel consumpon Level 2 Sub-secor or end use Level 3 Process or echnology Beyond level 3 Depends on daa avalably Addonal ndcaors

13 A se of ndcaors gves a beer pcure

14 Addonal ndcaors Indcaors ha are no necessarly energy relaed bu whch help o explan energy consumpon xamples: Soco-economc saus and housng enure Prvae car ownershp Average load facor per fregh vehcle CO 2 ndcaors If fuel mx s known can develop CO 2 ndcaors The purpose and lmaons denfed for energy effcency ndcaors also apply o CO 2 ndcaors

15 Why furher nformaon s needed Waer heang energy/dwellng 18% mprovemen n effcency Ggajoules per square mere Bu number dwellng sze ncreased by 50% And Occupancy decreased by 20% Overall waer heang use ncreased by 22%

16 Canno look a ndcaors n solaon nergy effcency ndcaors canno predc varaon n overall energy consumpon or quanfy he mpac of ndvdual componens or facors on overall energy consumpon. Decomposon analyss s used o explan he neracon beween dfferen elemens or facors nfluencng oal energy consumpon.

17 Decomposon analyss how o ge sared? nergy equaons generc energy effcency ndcaor energy consumpon acvy energy consumpon generc energy effcency ndcaor acvy Toal energy consumpon generc energy effcency ndcaor Subsecor or end use acvy Sub-secor or end use share of oal acvy

18 Generalsed 3-facor energy equaon = n A A A A = A n ( S I ) subsecor or end-uses whn a gven secor Aggregae acvy A value-added for manufacurng ndusry and servces; populaon n he household secor; or as passenger-klomeres and onne-klomeres, respecvely, for he passenger and fregh ranspor secors Secoral srucure S mx of acves whn a secor and furher dvdes acvy no ndusry sub-secors, measures of resdenal end-use acvy or ransporaon modes nergy nensy I energy use per un of acvy

19 Impacs on energy consumpon over me = YearT Year0 = ACT STR INT RSD Addve or sum form Ideally a resdual of 0 R = YearT / Year0 R = R. R. R. R ACT STR INT RSD Mulplcave form Ideally a resdual of 1

20 Solvng he equaons + + = + + = = d A S I d A I S d I S A d A S I A I S I S A d d I A S 0 0,, 0 0,, 0 0,, 0 0 0,,,,,,,, ln 1 Forunaely we do no need o solve hs equaon and varous mehods have been developed

21 Whch decomposon mehodology? Index decomposon analyss s used n energy decomposon analyss so ha ndcaors wh dfferen uns can be combned Choce of ndex decomposon mehodology Perfec decomposon Sub-secors addve Tme reversble asy o undersand? Choce of forma Addve (energy un) Mulplcave (percenages)

22 Overvew of dfferen mehodologes Index Perfec decomposon Subsecors addve Tme reversble asy o undersand LMDI I Yes Yes Yes Moderaely Refned Laspeyres Yes Yes No Moderaely LMDI II Yes No Yes Moderaely Fscher Ideal Yes No Yes Moderaely Smple average/ arhmec mean/ dvsa (Törnqvs) No No Yes Moderaely Adjused PMD I and II No Yes Yes Dffcul Paasche No Yes No Very easy Smple Laspeyres No Yes No Very easy

23 Decomposon analyss oher choces Key ssue s he choce of acvy varable Level of dsaggregaon Oher facors can be added f daa s avalable By fuel Geographcal or regonal level Fxed base-year vs. rollng base year dependng on daa avalably Correcon for heang degree days, cool degree days, purchasng power pares and currency should be ncorporaed no he calculaons

24 Annex A n ssenals Manual Dealed equaons for Laspeyres and Log Mean Dvsa Index (LMDI-1) decomposon mehodologes n boh addve and mulplcave formas How o calculae hypohecal energy use How o exend energy decomposon analyss o CO 2 decomposon analyss by addng a fuel mx (ncludng elecrcy) and a carbon nensy facor

25 3-facor decomposon analyss

26 Resdenal 3-facor decomposon Resdenal 0.95 Acvy, Inensy, 0.87 Srucure, 1.03

27 Decomposon n ssenals Manual Dealed equaons for Laspeyres and Log Mean Dvsa Index (LMDI-1) decomposon mehodologes n boh addve and mulplcave formas How o calculae hypohecal energy use How o exend energy decomposon analyss o CO 2 decomposon analyss by addng a fuel mx (ncludng elecrcy) and a carbon nensy facor

28 xercses: Insrucons n word documen xercse n excel fle

29 The vews expressed n hs presenaon do no necessarly reflec he vews or polcy of he Inernaonal nergy Agency (IA) Secreara or of he ndvdual IA member counres. The IA makes no represenaon or warrany, express or mpled, n respec o he presenaon s conen (ncludng s compleeness or accuracy) and shall no be responsble for any use of, or relance on, he presenaon. Thank you nergyndcaors@ea.org