How Outcomes are Changing Modelling. Steve Hogg

Transcription

1 How Outcomes are Changing Modelling Steve Hogg

2 Introduction Background to Regulatory Challenges How that impacts on Modelling How we can / are responding to the challenge

3 AMP6 Focus on Outcomes Outcomes What customers and society value Determined through consultation Outputs Specific things the companies deliver to achieve Outcomes This approach will allow the companies more freedom to innovate and decide how they deliver outcomes (OFWAT)

4 Environmental Flourishing Environment AWS Protection of the Environment SW Excellent Catchments, Rivers and Coasts YWS We will protect our water environment STW Future Proofing Investing for Tomorrow AWS Sustainable Resources YWS We will protect the wider environment - STW Asset Management & Performance OUTCOMES Financial Fair Profits and Fair Charges AWS Affordable Bills SW Strong Financial Foundations YWS We will have the lowest possible charges - STW Resilient Services AWS Better Information SW We will safely take your wastewater away - STW Customer Satisfaction Satisfied Customers AWS Responsive Customer Service SW A Trusted Company YWS We will provide excellent customer service - STW

5 AMP6 OFWAT Expectations

6 Other Factors (1) Govt Water White Paper 2012; OFWAT Climate Change Statement; OFWAT Sustainable Water Strategy Reduce carbon impacts Embedded in construction Operational emissions Sustainability Not prevent future generations from meeting their needs Resilience Assets must perform under extreme conditions

7 Other Factors (2) DEFRA Statement of Obligations (2012) Understand current performance Understand interaction with other drainage systems Be able to manage future pressures Have a risk based focus Undertake longer term planning

8 Other Factors (3) EA / OFWAT Drainage Strategy Framework (2013) Calls for WaSCs to account for future pressures at a catchment scale to deliver outcomes Partnership approaches Consideration of uncertainty Risk based Live Processes Innovative and Sustainable Consider Whole Life Costs and Benefits

9 Responding to the Challenges Challenges Improve Risk Understanding Climate Change & Sustainability System Resilience Cost Efficiency Interaction with other systems Modelling Processes Responses Develop Long Term Strategies Modelling Improvements Risk Analysis / Visualisation Consideration of TOTEX Short Term interventions

10 Sewerage Management Planning River Water Quality Assessments Flood Risk Plans Annualised Cost Damage Risk Priority List Intervention Strategy Model Confidence Sewerage Management Plan Understanding Headroom for Growth & Climate Change Strategic Plan Service & blockage Assessment

11 Flood Risk Visualisation Presenting model outputs in terms of risk Flooding quantity & location (source) No impact extents relies on judgement to understand impact Flood Risk = Likelihood x consequence

12 Flood Risk Visualisation Presenting model outputs in terms of risk Consequence High Medium Low Likelihood from model Hospital Critical infra School Habitable buildings Critical w/c Gardens Main roads Curtilage Garage Parkland Outhouse Low priority watercourse Fields Waste ground

13 Operational Support Improving operational performance - blockages FOG Sewer consequence of failure Likelihood of blockage or collapse Consequence assessment Sets high level investment strategies Where to focus operational regime? Catchment specific blockage assessment Assess historical trends Use model for detailed consequence assessment Link to root cause land use, social, sewer gradient, velocities Most appropriate intervention regime Restaurant Sewer sociology Take-away Tree cover Self cleansing velocity frequency from model Landuse & Land cover assessment to understand root cause

14 Operational Support Improving operational performance ancillaries Understand pump and screen run times 1. Save energy initiatives 2. Maintenance regimes

15 Operational Support Carbon Assessments Asset Type & contribution source PM130 - E 1% kwh a month/ DWF (m 3 ) a month PM128 - E 18% PM210 - E 2% PF047 - E 12% PM129 - E 2% PF036 - E 7% PF043 - E 3% PF044 - E 3% PF052 - E 2% PF060 - E 2% PF084 - E 2% PF135 - E 2% PF161 - E 3% PF162 - E 5% PF167 - E 5% PF166 - E 1% PM127 - E 3% PM126 - E 5% PM125 - E 1% PM124 - E 7% PM123 - E 1% PM122 - E 10% PF191 - E 3%

16 Operational Support Assessing Hydrogen Sulphide Risk Likelihood Module Model data Velocity Residence time Depth Wetted perimeter BOD Consequence Module Railways Traffic sensitive Watercourses Serviceability impact (flooding & pollution) Conservation etc

17 Operational Support Assessing Hydrogen Sulphide Risk Prioritise asset renewal Prioritise resilience and emergency plans Allow rehabilitation to integrate with other investment to improve outcomes

18 Sustainability Rainscape is a surface water elimination and reduction strategy giving a sustainable approach to managing surface water Address hydraulic overloading of system Identify opportunities in existing system capacity ongoing promotion Catchment wide evaluation Remove / avoid new surface water flow Reduce predicted future flooding Decrease energy costs Adapt for climate change Flooding Commitments 2034? Creep stops, but climate change still occurs Remove existing SW to improve performance

19 Joint Modelling Approaches Hull & Haltemprice Integrated Flood Modelling 14,000 properties flooded Estimated 20,000 individuals affected 6,300 in temporary accommodation 1,300 businesses flooded 133 schools flooded 12,500 ha of prime agricultural land flooded 800km highways affected Hull fire & rescue - 3,054 calls in 18 hours Cost of flooding > 240m

20 Hull & Haltemprice Integrated Flood Modelling 2D Overland Pluvial Model 1D Watercourse Model 2D Overland Flooding Model Interventions 2D Watercourse Model 1D Sewer Model Tidal Interaction

21 Hull & Haltemprice Integrated Flood Modelling Verification & detailed topographical modelling

22 Looking to the Future Network Monitoring and Management

23 Looking to the Future Network Monitoring and Management Nature of London network (cross connection trunk sewers) offers opportunity to control and move flows along different routes in response to different weather or operational conditions FloodWorks: allows a look into the future rather than responding to something that has already happened. Gain a long term understanding of asset performance over a range of flow conditions Made operation for Olympic Sites (29 specific loggers / assessment points)

24 Looking to the Future Artificial Neural Networks Train ANN model to recognise and then predict response: From patterns of responses (flow / depth) at a target location Linked to a set of time related loading conditions (rainfall) No network or area data Rainfall, air-temp inputs to predict flow Groundwater, evaporation, wind speed? Superfast Optimisation Warning systems

25 Thank You Any Questions?