16 th September 2016 BRIM Workshop Loughborough. Richard Allitt
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1 16 th September 2016 BRIM Workshop Loughborough Richard Allitt
2 Contents Uncertainties in Flood Risk Modelling 4 components Catchment wetness Asset data Rainfall Modelling Regulatory regime AMP1 to AMP5 AMP6 and beyond Thoughts for the future
3 Uncertainties in Flood Risk Modelling Catchment Wetness Asset Data Modelling Rainfall
4 Catchment Wetness Particularly relevant in fluvial flooding as the bulk of the runoff is from rural pervious surfaces which are greatly influenced by the degree of saturation (ie catchment wetness). Less relevant in urban flooding when most flooding is from other sources (sewer, pluvial etc) as most runoff is from impermeable surfaces where the percentage runoff remains more or less constant.
5 Uncertainties in Flood Risk Modelling Urban runoff is not greatly affected by catchment wetness as most runoff is off impermeable surfaces. Asset Data Catchment Wetness Modelling Rainfall
6 Asset Data Improved records (?) CCTV GIS Lidar Inferencing & interpolation Improved monitoring & control
7 Uncertainties in Flood Risk Modelling Catchment Wetness The quality of Asset data has improved greatly over the past years. Asset Data Modelling Rainfall
8 Rainfall Weather radar More extensive raingauge coverage Better global weather models Better understanding of weather processes Improved forecasting
9 Real Rainfall
10 Design Storms
11 River Thames A succession of minor storms caused the River Thames to flood to between the 1 in 100 year and 1 in 200 year flood level.
12 Real Rainfall
13 Named Storms Abigail Nov 2015 Barney Nov 2015 Clodagh 29 Nov 2015 Desmond 5-6 Dec 2015 Eva 24 Dec 2015 Frank Dec 2015 Gertrude 29 Jan 2016 Henry 1-2 Feb 2016 Imogen 8 Feb 2016 Jake 2 March 2016 Katie March 2016
14 Milestones in Hydraulic Modelling Software 1975 Flood Studies Report (FSR) 1981 TRRL Hydrograph 1981 Wallingford Procedure published 1982 Mainframe WASSP 1984 MicroWASSP 1989 Walrus 1992 SPIDA 1994 HydroWorks 1999 Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH) 1998 InfoWorks 2010 InfoWorks ICM
15 Total Rainfall (mm) Reading READING Compare FEH & FSR Return Periods Note:- each pair of curves (solid and dashed) are for different storm durations from 1 hour to 24 hours FEH storms (solid lines) 24 hour storms hour storms FSR storms (dashed lines) 1 hour storms Return Period (years) FEH 1hr FEH 6hr FEH 24hr
16 Total Rainfall (mm) Reading READING Compare FEH & FSR Return Periods Note:- each pair of curves (solid and dashed) are for different storm durations from 1 hour to 24 hours 24 hour storms hour storms hour storms Return Period (years) FEH 1hr FEH 6hr FEH 24hr
17 Total Rainfall (mm) Reading READING Compare FEH & FSR Return Periods Note:- each pair of curves (solid and dashed) are for different storm durations from 1 hour to 24 hours 24 hour storms hour storms hour storms Return Period (years) FEH 1hr FEH 6hr FEH 24hr
18 Total Rainfall (mm) Reading READING Compare FEH & FSR Return Periods Note:- each pair of curves (solid and dashed) are for different storm durations from 1 hour to 24 hours 24 hour storms hour storms hour storms Return Period (years) FEH 1hr FEH 6hr FEH 24hr
19 Uncertainties in Flood Risk Modelling Catchment Wetness Asset Data Modelling Rainfall
20 Modelling Has developed massively over the past 35 years. Very active and skilled modelling community. However, many leading practitioners are approaching retirement (or have already retired).
21 Milestones in Hydraulic Modelling Software 1975 Flood Studies Report (FSR) 1981 TRRL Hydrograph 1981 Wallingford Procedure published 1982 Mainframe WASSP 1984 MicroWASSP 1989 Walrus 1992 SPIDA 1994 HydroWorks 1999 Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH) 1998 InfoWorks 2010 InfoWorks ICM
22 Modelling Limitations 1982 to 1989 Tolerance of 25m 3 for flooding 1990 to current
23 Current Day Modelling 1D 1D-1D 1D-2D 1D-2D-3D Highly skilled job (undervalued?) Depends on standard of verification (flow monitoring technology has moved on massively) Almost anything can now be modelled(incl road gullies).
24 Uncertainties in Flood Risk Modelling Catchment Wetness Asset Data Modelling Rainfall
25 Uncertainties in Flood Risk Modelling Catchment Wetness Asset Data Modelling Rainfall
26 Regulatory Regime LLFA WaSC EA Responsibility for Urban Flooding
27 Lead Local Flood Authority LLFA s formed after Pitt Review (2008) into flooding in Responsible for groundwater, pluvial and non-main river fluvial flooding. Overseen and advised by EA. Limitations on funding, resources and skills. Responsible for Surface Water Management Plans and Flood Risk Action Plans.
28 Environment Agency Responsible for coastal and main-river fluvial flooding. Over-arching role on all aspects of flooding and advisors to LLFA s. Extensive skills for fluvial flooding. Limited skills for urban flooding. Responsible for Flood Risk Maps.
29 Water & Sewerage Companies AMP1 to AMP5 Responsible for sewer flooding but only:- Up to a 1 in 10 year* return period storm; Alleviation costs are below cost threshold (costbeneficial in AMP5). Required to accept highway drainage connections but NOT responsible for highway flooding. General requirement for Drainage Area Studies / Plans. Maintain a Flood Risk Register (actually a record of flooded properties not At Risk properties). * Since Sewers for Adoption requires NEW sewers to meet 1 in 30 year criteria everyone FALSELY thinks that applies to all sewers.
30 Water & Sewerage Companies AMP6 and beyond Ofwat has finally permitted genuine At Risk Register. No national limits on cost-benefit ratios or financial caps on flooding schemes it is now a matter between the WaSC and their customers. Joint schemes encouraged. ODI incentives (and penalties).
31 Thoughts for the Future
32 Thoughts for the Future Modelling is now so advanced that it needs skilled practitioners who are valued and rewarded. We must ensure they have a central role in urban flooding.
33 Thoughts for the Future Modelling is now so advanced that it needs skilled practitioners who are valued and rewarded. We must ensure they have a central role in urban flooding. We should not expect Modellers to determine rainfall inputs that should be the role of Climate Scientists.
34 Thank you. Any Questions?
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