Sun to Market Solutions. June 16 18, 2014 IFC Washington, DC

Transcription

1 Sun to Market Solutions June 16 18, 2014 IFC Washington, DC

2 Schedule 1 PV Technology Overview, Market Analysis, and Economics PV Project Development, Implementation, and Financing Case Study

3 Schedule 2 PV Project Development, Implementation, and Financing Planning Development Implementation Finance

4 3 How can we assess the project accurately?

5 PV plant energy estimates 4 How to reduce uncertainty in solar energy estimates? Annual Degradation (0.5% - 1%) Use real test data: 0.5% Transposition To Plane of Array (0%-5%) Calculate the actual radiation to plane of array (POA) using the real components: 0% Energy Simulation& Plant Losses (5% -15%) Use real data: shadowing, AC/DC losses, mismatch, etc: 5% Solar Resource Uncertainty (5% -20%) Carry out the solar resource using satellite and numerical model data: GHI 2%, DNI 5% Sources and usual values of Energy Uncertainty

6 PV plant energy estimates 5 It is very important to have reliable solar resource data (satellite derived and groundmeasured)ineachstageof the project NREL, 2010

7 Sources of solar resource uncertainty 6 Reducingmeasurementuncertaintiesinthe solarresourceassessmentwillmakethe project more attractive and less risky to outside investors Spatial Variability (0% -1%) Representativeness of Monitoring Period (0.5% - 2%) Inter annual Variability (2% -5%) Measurement Uncertainty (2% -15%)

8 Solar radiation components 7 Solar PV primarily relies on GHI for energy estimates. However increased production by tracking systems depends also on DNI DNI GHI SunPower, 2010

9 Solar resource &data sources 8 There are many sources of data available (free / commercial). Know how for usingthesedatais acriticalissue On sitemeasureddata Nearby Reference Station Data spatialand temporal resolution 10 x 10 km Hourly data maps TMY 5 x 5 km 30 x 30 km ModeledData Interpolation and stochastic models Numerical models Satellite imagery and data

10 Solar resource &data sources 9 NREL, Tier, 2013

11 Data source advantages and limitations 10 - Bankable reports AWS TruePower, 2011

12 Typical meteorological year TMY 11 TMY (Typical Meteorological Year) files were first created by the U.S. Department of Energy s (DOE) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in These files are created by looking at years of hourly data at the site in question and selecting, in series, the most typical January, February, and so on of all available years based on a weighted average of eleven weather variables with the selected months knitted together into one synthetic year of typical months Caution with TMY files: They miss the extremes. They do a good job capturing typical conditions but (by design) do not show the extremes. They are not all current and built with all the years. Not all TMY files are constructed with years of dataandsome may havebeenconstructedas much as5or 10yearsago. The goal of a TMY is to represent the long-term average meteorological conditions at a site. True? It shall represent the P50 case?

13 P - values 12 P-measures represent a value that is exceeded by XX % of the population of a data set. Thus, P-values of solar radiation are provided to judge the reliability of thesolarresourceof a project.tmy shall representthep50case Caution with P-values: The P-values shall be based on as many years as possible - ideally using up to 30 years of site-specific observations. 5 or10 years are not enough Reducing the uncertainty of data at a site does improves the P70 and P90 values and hence leads to more reliable energy production estimates and also to more favorable financing conditions for the project Lenders and banks normally use the most conservative (P90, P95 P99) approach for the commercial base case for financing of a project Low uncertainty is important because debt interest rates are calculated based on the most conservative P - values AWS TruePower, 2011

14 13 Does the development of a solar PV project have something special? Are there key parameters for the industry?

15 Engineering 14 Project Development Analysis and evaluation of the terrain, rate of yield, online slope analysis Project Layout Structuring of the terrain, positioning of PV racks, optimize positioning for maximum yield, marking of shadowed racks, structuring the area, object shadows, optimizing the rack count and distance, etc. Project Engineering Electric layout, Bill of material, list of GPS coordinates, cable lists, general concept de nition (device hierarchy, device areas with the physical, electrical devices, with the assigned amount and speci c type, cable trenches describe the distribution of the cable trenches and the assignment to the elds,layout zones ) stringassignment, cable calculation Helios3D, 2012

16 PV plant energy assessment 15 PVsyst, 2012 Detailed evaluation of PV plant configuration, defining the optimum PV plant configuration: Plant Layout Energy production Loss and yields breakdown Deterministic and probabilistic calculation Sensitivity analysis

17 Key parameters 16 Wp (watts peak): In the context of PV sector that means the nominal power of total amount of modules We (watts nominal electric): In the context of PV sector that means the nominal power of total amount of inverters kwh/kwp (energy yield, specific production) PR (Performance ratio): The performance ratio, often called "Quality Factor", is independent from the irradiation (however is dependent from weather conditions on site) and therefore useful to compare systems. It takes into account all preconversion losses, inverter losses, thermal losses and conduction losses. It is useful to measure the performance ratio throughout the operation of the system, as a deterioration could help pinpoint causes of yield losses CUF (Capacity Utilisation Factor): how much of the stated capacity a plant actually generates compared to its total possible capacity. Key parameter?

18 Energy yield 17 Which factors determine real world energy yield (kwh/kwp)? How can we measure, analyze& predict these factors? Tokyo Electric, 2013

19 Perfomance ratio kwh/kwp PR = 86.6% FolsonLabs, 2013 PVsyst, 2013 Tokyo Electric, 2013

20 19 How can we develop bankable solar PV projects?

21 Development 20 Development of a PV project has the same process (problems and difficulties) that other energy technologies. Special attention in the solar resource assessment and site measurements First Solar, 2013

22 Procurement 21 The quality of a PV systems is the quality of its components. Panels and inverters are key component. Real energy yield test, track record, guarantee value and warranty, certifications, labs testing and performance validation are required to take into account, so you can be confident that you're making reliable decisions based on the most reliable data

23 Construction services 22 Solar plant construction conformity assessment services: Material Testing (concrete, structural steel for PV panel support, soil, steel for reinforcement) Plan review of systems and subsystems (civil, electrical, mechanical, ancillary facilities, etc.) Site inspection during construction for civil, mechanical and electrical installations. Certification of equipment and installations (IEC, CE marking and other European Directives) Audits of sub-contractors Project Management assistance Quality, Health and Safety on-site coordination Training From electrical measurements to final acceptance tests, services should include: Design review Local code compliance Assistance in commissioning Definition of tests protocols regarding measurement, data treatment and necessary corrections according to standards Acceptance tests for Photovoltaic (PV) installations, including calculations of energy yield, efficiency, performance index, power rating, inverter efficiency, module temperature, array yield, system losses, etc. Complete inspection of the facility for final acceptance Permitting documentation review Witnessing of commissioning

24 Acceptance / performance test 23 The fundamental differences between acceptance of a solar power plant and a conventional fossil-fired plant are the inherently transient nature of the energy source and the necessity to use a performance projection model in the acceptance process.iec standardsarethemostused (ASTMalsoinEEUU) Provisional Acceptance Test. After commissioning this test will be performed. It durationsaretypicallyrun in theperiod over a few days(2 7). Final Acceptance Test. Is a continuous multi-day energy test that gathers multiple detailed daily energy outputs and compares the results to projections from a PR. Availability is also reviewed. Between these tests is the guarantee period (1 2 years). Black&Veatch, 2013

25 24 How are the risks managed in a PV project?

26 Financing 25 Fitch Ratings Rating Criteria for Solar Power Projects(February2011) Fitch looks for a minimum of one year, hourly, well maintained, onsite data for a complete solar resource supply assessment. Shorter data periods than one year will not capture the full seasonal and diurnal characteristics of solar irradiance at a particular site, and would be considered either midrange or weaker. Confirmation that the instruments used to collect the data were appropriate and properly calibrated and maintained is also expected. Fitch considers a solar resource assessment that provides three output probability scenarios, a P50, a one year P90, and a one year P99, to be stronger may not rate a solar debt issue that provides as P50 alone. Moody s Investors Service PV Solar Power Generation Projects(July 2010) there has to be high degree of confidence that solar irradiation will meet or exceed certain minimum levels. For PV solar projects, Moody s will likely use a P90 forecast in calculating base case financial ratios

27 Project finance structure 26 Investments in the PV sector often combine capital intensity with new technologies Securing project finance can prove to be a critical step in the path to commercialization. Project finance succeeds best when you have longterm off-take agreements with quality-credit counterparties (such as power purchase agreements). WSG&R Corporation, 2013

28 Project finance structure 27 Sponsor Contractors EPC O&M Dividend Equity Licence & Permists Admin. Agent Fee Management Agreement Fee Insurance policy Fee SPV Debt service Fee Fee PPA Financial Agreement Funds Energy Market Insurance Co. Financial Entities

29 Project finance structure 28 Panels Supplier Fee Warranty kwh/m 2 BOS Supplier Warranty Fee Contractors EPC O&M PV Power Plant Guarantee values: PR + availability Fee kwh SPV

30 Risks 29 RISK Probability Take Mitigation Construction Medium Contractor EPC Performance High Contractor EPC O&M Availability Medium Contractor EPC O&M Revenues Low SPV PPA O&M extra cost Low Contractor O&M EPC extra cost Medium Contractor EPC Start up delay Medium Contractor EPC Management extra cost Low Agent Agreement Force majeure Very low Insurance Co, Policy Interest rate High SPV Financial agreement Licenses & Permits Medium SPV L&P contracts Unrealistic guarantee values Medium SPV DD Technical Solar resource High SPV DD Technical Technology life time Medium SPV - Contractor EPC DD Tech.