ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
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1 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK THE EXPANSION IN FULL FLOW Steel Founders Society of America Chicago, Illinois APRIL 13, 2007
2 ECONOMIC OVERVIEW LONGER THAN EVER ON CAPITAL CAPITAL CONTINUES TO POUR IN FROM OVERSEAS DOMESTIC CAPITAL FORMATION CONTINUES UNABATED Profits Personal Savings
3 HOUSING RISKY MORTGAGE LOAN STRUCTURE IMPLODES LOSSES ARE REAL BUT RELATIVELY SMALL AND DISPERSED PRIME RISK MARKET ROLLS ON RENTAL UNITS REPLACE CONDOS ON DEVELOPERS PLANNING BOARDS
4 OPEN CAPITAL MARKETS COMMERCIAL PAPER EQUIPMENT TRUST CERTIFICATES EQUIPMENT LEASES COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL BANK CREDIT LONG TERM CORPORATE BONDS, INCLUDING JUNK BONDS PROJECT FINANCE VENTURE CAPITAL ACTIVITIES STOCK MARKET: INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERINGS HEDGE FUND OPERATIONS BEST FINANCIAL CONDITIONS SINCE 1995
5 ENERGY PROJECTS CURRENTLY THE BIGGEST SECTOR FOR CAPITAL PROJECTS NATURAL GAS - Drilling at Home Feeds - Equipment Boom - Deep Offshore Play Looms Large COAL FIRED POWER PLANTS A Boom in the Making - Fluid Bed Plants - Gasification / Dual Cycle Plants POWER TRANSMISSION LINES PETROLEUM REFINERIES - Low Sulfur Equipment Will Go - New Refineries Are on the Drawing Boards
6 ENERGY PROJECTS (Continued) ETHANOL PLANTS B gal of capacity under construction - Big bucks but won t dent import problem - (Corn prices double) NGL RECEIVING PORTS GAS TO LIQUIDS PLANTS AT STRANDED GAS FIELDS OVERSEAS CANADIAN TAR SAND PROJECTS NATURAL GAS PIPELINES - From NGL ports to major transmission lines - Rockies Express Pipeline from Wyoming to Ohio
7 TRANSPORTATION PROJECTS NATURAL GAS PIPELINES (Redux) RAILROAD EXPANSION Double Tracking Railroads From Chicago to Los Angeles - Union Pacific - Burlington Santa Fe NEW YORK CITY - Hudson River RR Tunnel - East Side Terminal for Long Island RR - Second Avenue Subway PANAMA CANAL WIDENING
8 PROJECTS IN OTHER SECTORS SEMICONDUCTORS - New Plants - Wide Spread Retooling SEARCH MONSTERS PORTLAND CEMENT Biggest US Plant Ever Is Under Construction in Missouri AUTOMOTIVE Toyota Will Build a Big Automotive Plant in the South FOOD PROCESSING PHARMACEUTICALS TELECOMMUNICATIONS BUT: Machinery, Equipment and General Manufacturing Remain in the Doldrums
9 TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT - BENEFITING FROM CAPITAL AVAILABILITY RAILROAD CARS - At Capacity HEAVY TRUCKS / TRAILERS - At Desired Operating Level COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT - Boeing is at Capacity - Civil Aviation is Booming
10 CONSTRUCTION HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS - New York City, Chicago, Nashville MALLS (Never Stopped) INSTITUTIONAL - Hospitals Private Room Boom - Schools INFRASTRUCTURE - Airports - Highways, Bridges - Water and Sewer
11 LONG-LEAD-TIME PROJECT SYNDROME ORDERS PLACED EARLY-ON (Steel is Especially Front-end Loaded) INVENTORIES / MARSHAL YARD MATERIALS ACCUMULATE VALUE PUT-IN-PLACE GOES ON SEEMINGLY FOR EVER WHOLE PROCESS SUCKS UP SHORT TERM FINANCE USDC DOES A POOR JOB OF DOCUMENTING PROJECTS
12 STEEL CASTINGS EVERY MAJOR MARKET REMAINS STRONG RAILROAD CARS HEAVY TRUCKS AND TRAILERS OFF ROAD EQUIPMENT ENERGY PROJECTS CHEMICAL PROCESS INDUSTRIES INFRASTRUCTURE COMMERCIAL CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY: UP BUT NOT IMPRESSIVE
13 STEEL INDUSTRY DOMESTIC MILLS OFF ABOUT 2% SUPPLY / DEMAND NORMALIZED SEVERCORR STEEL PROJECT WILL START UP THIS YEAR THYSSEN STEEL WILL BUILD IN MEMPHIS NIPPON STEEL WILL BUILD IN THE SOUTH TO SERVE TOYOTA FERROUS METALLICS SUPPLY STILL STRAINED / SCRAP PRICES SHOULD STAY HIGH
14 DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH TIGHT LABOR MARKETS - 4.4% Unemployment - A Better Measure of Economic Conditions than GDP GROWING INVENTORIES - Project Related Materials and Equipment RISING INTEREST RATES ENDEMIC BUT HARMLESS INFLATION FEARS COMMODITY PRICES STABILIZE THE DOLLAR PRESENTS NO SERIOUS PROBLEM THE TRADE DEFICIT GROWS MORE SLOWLY CONSUMER DURABLE MARKETS HOLD UP INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY REVS UP USDC CONTINUES TO UNDERSTATE WORK ON MAJOR INVESTMENT PROJECTS
15 U.S. STEEL INDUSTRY APPARENT DOMESTIC SUPPLY - ALL PRODUCTS (Million Tons) Shipments +Imports -Exports Ap Dom Sply Im. For Conv Net Supply Ch Inventory Consumption Memo: Im. For Cons Asfsa15-ads-qtly (E) 4-Q Year (E) (F) 1-Q Q Q Q Year % Ch Y-o-Y
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