6. Effects on Natural Systems

Transcription

1 6. Effects on Natural Systems As discussed in the previous sections, climate change and sea level rise are expected to have significant and widespread impacts on Kien Giang and Ca Mau, affecting both natural and human systems. There is evidence that the impacts of increased sea level are already being felt in both provinces, and our projections indicate that both provinces will become increasingly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The most substantial impacts of climate change (with regional and localised differences) on Kien Giang and Ca Mau are expected to be: Sea level rise, resulting in higher flood risk, salt water intrusion, increased salinity and coastal erosion; Changes in hydrology resulting in changes in length and intensity of the rainy season, which may result in more severe floods; Changes to the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as large storms and typhoons, leading to losses of infrastructure and land resulting from inundation, wind, storm surge and shoreline erosion; and Changes in coastal sedimentation and erosion patterns. Climate change could also have a range of indirect effects on the natural systems, and exacerbate preexisting human induced problems such as environmental pollution and over exploitation of potable water resources. 6.1 The Effects of Sea Level Rise The National Meteorology and Hydrology Centre (IMHEN) projects a sea level rise for Vietnam of 15 cm by 2030, 30 cm by 2050, 50 cm by 2070, and 100 cm by 2100 under high emissions scenarios. The low-end scenarios project a rise of 28 cm by 2050 and 65 cm by 2100 (MONRE 2009), although the high-end estimate of 100 cm or more cannot be ruled out. Our assessment found that a 15 cm or 30 cm sea level rise would not result in an appreciable increase in land area that would be permanently inundated primarily as a result of the protection afforded by the current system of sea-dykes and flood protection infrastructure. The current height of the sea-dyke system is around 1.2 meters, and so even at 2050 where projections are for a sea level rise of 30 cm, only the current low lying coastal wetland areas and river estuaries that are not protected by sluices will see a marked change in the area inundated. The exception is Ngoc Hien in Ca Mau province which is already affected by inundation in periods of high seasonal tides. The most important effects of sea level rise relate to the corresponding changes in flooding and drainage, its relative effect on salinity and importance for low lying areas in terms of enhancing coastal erosion, proneness to inundation and increases storm surge/storm tide vulnerability. These aspects are discussed in detail below. 6.2 The Effects of Flooding and Inundation The Mekong Delta divides into two distributaries from its apex at Phnom Penh in Cambodia: the Mekong (Tien) and the Bassac (Hau Giang). Further downstream these channels sub-divide into nine channels, the Nine-Headed Dragon or Cuu Long River. Kien Giang and Ca Mau are both located on the south coast, and are connected to the Bassac through an extensive system of canals. 114 P a g e

2 Studies of the last 45 years of Mekong flow data show no systematic changes in the hydrological regime of the lower Mekong. The flow of the lower Mekong is regulated by Cambodia s Great Lake, Ton Le Sap, in the upper delta. The lake acts as flood storage in the wet season until early October and a supply reservoir in the dry season. Figure 83 illustrates the historical extent of river base flooding from the Mekong Mainstream and the areas in Kien Giang inundated as a result. The mean annual flow volume of the Mekong River amounts to approximately 475,000 million m 3. In 2005 a flood volume of 500,000 million m 3 caused inundation of nearly 50% of the delta. With a storage capacity of approximately 60,000 million m 3, Ton Le Sap is a crucial source of water supply to the delta in the dry season. In a recent Mekong River Commission (MRC) study, the increased flow in the Mekong River will increase water availability in the dry season and increase the risk of flooding in the wet season. The wet season flow in the lower Mekong is projected to increase about 12%, and the percentage increase in flow for the dry season is around 15% in the Delta region (IMHEN, 2011). However upstream of the delta, dams have been built or are planned to be built in the future on the mainstream in China and in the tributaries in lower basin, and it is highly likely that these storages will influence the peak and base flow regime in the lower Mekong mainstream to some degree. Moderate annual floods are a common occurrence on the Delta, with most provinces experiencing small scale and mostly localised flooding on a seasonal basis. However the Delta also experiences extreme mainstream flood events which can be destructive and cause widespread damage to housing, agriculture and aquaculture. Large scale floods were recorded in 1961, 1966, 1978, 1984, 1991, 1995, 1996, (CCFSC 1999) and 2000 and The 2000 floods damaged nearly half a million ha of agricultural and 16,000 ha of aquaculture land (ADB 2007). Figure 83 - Historical map of annual flooding in the pattern in the lower Mekong basin. Source: Unknown. The most recent IMHEN projections for the end of the 21st century under both A2 and B2 emissions scenarios are that: Rainfall is projected to increase by about 3 to 10% in both Kien Giang and Ca Mau compared to the baseline; 115 P a g e

3 Rainfall will tend to increase in rainy months (by up to 25% by the end of the century) and decrease in dry months (can be from 30 to 35%). In other words the dry seasons will get drier and rainfall in the rainy season will be more intense (i.e. larger volumes in shorter periods). This will exacerbate flooding and drought conditions. Anecdotal evidence from local people surveyed in the study area suggests that there are two distinct patterns of flooding experienced in the study area. Ca Mau currently experiences localised flooding, whereas Kien Giang is primarily affected by river based flooding from the Mekong mainstream (Bassak River). Mainstream flooding is the most dangerous and destructive, and results when large water volumes water fall in the upper catchment and high tides back water up in the mainstream and larger canals, causing flooding and inundation in the surrounding floodplain as well as reducing the ability of local canals and paddy fields to drain. Figure 84 - Flooding in Vam Ray, Hon Dat District October Courtesy M Russell. Table 37 and Table 38 summarises the projected land area inundated during flooding for the Baseline, 2030 and 2050 time slices. With the projected increase in total annual precipitation, flood danger is expected to increase all the districts (except Phu Quoc and Kien Hai which are island districts) by 20 to 50% between now and 2030 and 2050 respectively. Most of the Kien Giang is only just above sea level and extreme flooding events could have immense consequences for the entire province as it would disrupt agricultural production and livelihoods for an extended period. In twelve out of fourteen districts in Kien Giang, the threat of flooding is considered to be moderate to severe. Extreme threat of flooding from an extreme event is lower in Ca Mau with only five out of nine districts where the vulnerability to flooding being considered as moderate to severe. Districts experiencing the greatest increases in area inundated include: An Minh 55% increase; Vinh Thuan 53% increase; Ca Mau 51% increase; and An Bien 43% increase It is also worth noting that the land area of Rach Gia district that is inundated is projected to increase by 11% by P a g e

4 In the majority of the districts, flood protection is not adequate. Upgrading of flood safety is urgently needed for all the districts, especially for the major settlements and industrial areas. Flood protection upgrading is also needed along the Bassac River which is outside the study area but influences flooding in Kien Giang and to a lesser extent in Ca Mau. Table 37 Ca Mau district land area inundated during flooding (Baseline, 2030 and 2050). Baseline SLR 15 cm (2030) SLR 30 cm (2050) District Total Area (ha) % Affected Area (ha) % Affected Area (ha) % Affected Area (ha) Ca Mau 24,929 19% 4,840 52% 12,969 71% Cai Nuoc 41,700 47% 19,572 70% 29,293 82% Dam Doi 83,415 13% 10,617 28% 23,083 36% Nam Can 50,789 36% 18,084 47% 23,691 58% Ngoc Hien 73,517 22% 16,496 29% 21,457 39% Phu Tan 46,433 36% 16,791 46% 21,177 62% Thoi Binh 64,131 6% 4,164 19% 12,242 35% Tran Van Thoi 70,942 42% 29,995 58% 40,952 79% U Minh 77,462 9% 7,271 22% 17,185 42% Table 38 Kien Giang district land area inundated during flooding (Baseline, 2030 and 2050). Baseline SLR 15 cm (2030) SLR 30 cm (2050) District Total Area (ha) % Affected Area (ha) % Affected Area (ha) % Affected Area (ha) Rach Gia 10,364 70% 7,279 75% 7,724 81% Ha Tien % 6,327 67% 6,693 70% An Bien 40,029 38% 15,223 69% 27,681 81% An Minh 59,050 9% 5,510 39% 22,884 64% Chau Thanh 28,544 72% 20,655 82% 23,330 87% Giang Thanh 41,284 98% 40,56 98% 40,383 99% Giong Rieng 63,929 83% 53,155 89% 56,716 94% Go Quao 43,951 61% 26,766 86% 37,696 92% Hon Dat 103,863 96% 99, % 100,399 98% Kien Hai 2,558 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 Kien Luong 47,285 89% 41,867 89% % Phu Quoc 58,891 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 Tan Hiep 42,288 91% 38,630 92% % U Minh Thuong 43,270 17% 7,169 34% % Vinh Thuan 39,483 14% 5,560 45% % Figure 85 to Figure 89 illustrate the increase in both the areas and depths of flooding in Ca Mau and Kien Giang during an extreme event (such as the baseline year 2000) for both A2 and B2 scenarios for 2030 and The supplementary Atlas contains flooding and inundation maps for 2030 and 2050 for each district, illustrating the potential level of hazard at the local level. 117 P a g e

5 Figure 85 - Baseline Flooding Scenario for Kien Giang and Ca Mau provinces (IMHEN 2011) 118 P a g e

6 Figure 86 - Flooding Projections for 2030 (A2 and B2 Scenarios) for Kien Giang province (IMHEN 2011) 119 P a g e

7 Figure 87 - Flooding Projections for 2030 (A2 and B2 Scenarios) Ca Mau province (IMHEN 2011) 120 P a g e

8 Figure 88 - Flooding Projections for 2050 (A2 and B2 Scenarios) Kien Giang province (IMHEN 2011) 121 P a g e

9 Figure 89 - Flooding Projections for 2050 (A2 Scenario) for Ca Mau provinces (IMHEN 2011) 122 P a g e

10 6.3 The Effects of Drought Droughts are already a problem in the Mekong delta, and as mentioned previously with the changes in seasonality and the projection that the dry seasons will get drier, it is possible that the occurrence and duration of drought conditions will worsen. During the survey, every district expressed their concerns that droughts were becoming more common and getting worse. The El Niño-related drought was one of the most widespread and worst droughts Vietnam has experienced, and resulted in increased salinity and forest fires in Kien Giang and Ca Mau, and the loss of 15,900 ha of winter crops (ADB 2007). 6.4 Effects of Salinity and Saline Intrusion Salinity and saline intrusion have been a problem in the Mekong delta for many years. In 1995, about 42% of the delta (1.7 million Ha) was affected by saline intrusion (SIWRMP, 1995), and saline intrusion now penetrates up to km up the estuaries of the Delta. In the dry season, flow in the Mekong is insufficient to prevent saline intrusion and extensive salinisation of waterways in the lower delta. During a normal dry season, the maximum extent of salt water intrusion covers somewhere between 15,000 km 2 and 20,000 km 2. Figure 90 highlights the distribution of coastal wetland systems in Kien Giang and Ca Mau prior to being drained and converted for agricultural use. The coastal mangrove and marsh systems would have been saline tidal and estuarine systems. These areas, whilst highly modified and protected from saline intrusion by a combination of sea dykes and sluice gates today, due to their inherent location and geomorphological features are predisposed to the effects of salinity and saline intrusion. Figure 90 - Historical vegetation map illustrating the occurrence of coastal wetlands. Source: Unknown. Table 39 and Table 40 summarise the findings from IMHEN modelling for the current and future extent of salinity in Ca Mau and Kien Giang over for both A2 and B2 scenarios for 2030 and Most notable is that all the districts in Ca Mau and the majority of districts in Kien Giang (with the exception of the island districts of Phu Quoc and Kien Hai) are already affected by salinity all year round. 123 P a g e

11 Table 39 Ca Mau district land area affected by saline intrusion >4 (Baseline, 2030 and 2050). Current Salinity Salinity 2030 Salinity 2050 (15 cm SLR) (30 cm SLR) District Total Area (ha) % Affected Area (ha) % Affected Area (ha) % Affected Area (ha) Ca Mau 24, % 24, % 24, % 24,929 Cai Nuoc 41, % 41, % 41, % 41,700 Dam Doi 83, % 83, % 83, % 83,415 Nam Can 50, % 50, % 50, % 50,789 Ngoc Hien 73, % 73, % 73, % 73,517 Phu Tan 46, % 46, % 46, % 46,433 Thoi Binh 64, % 64, % 64, % 64,131 Tran Van Thoi 70, % 70, % 70, % 70,942 U Minh 77, % 77, % 77, % 77,462 Table 40 Kien Giang district land affected by salinity and saline intrusion (Baseline, 2030 and 2050). Current Salinity Salinity 2030 Salinity 2050 (15 cm SLR) (30 cm SLR) District Total Area (ha) % Affected Area (ha) % Affected Area (ha) % Affected Area (ha) Rach Gia 10,364 95% 9, % 10, % 10,364 Ha Tien 9, % 9, % 9, % 9,952 An Bien 40,029 90% 36, % 40, % 40,029 An Minh 59,05 99% 58, % 59, % 59,050 Chau Thanh 28, % 28, % 28, % 28,544 Giang Thanh 41,284 90% 37, % 41, % 41,284 Giong Rieng 63,929 25% 15,982 20% 12,786 20% 12,786 Go Quao 43,951 70% 30,766 80% 35,161 85% 37,358 Hon Dat 103,863 50% 51,932 20% 20,773 20% 20,773 Kien Hai 2,558 0% 0 0% 0 0% - Kien Luong 47, % 47,285 75% 35,464 70% 33,100 Phu Quoc 58,891 0% 0 0% 0 0% - Tan Hiep 42,288 60% 25,373 20% 8,458 20% 8,458 U Minh Thuong 43,27 100% 43, % 43, % 43,270 Vinh Thuan 39, % 39, % 39, % 39,483 Given the high level of exposure to salinity for both provinces, saline intrusion and high salinity issues are very likely to continue in the future through a combination of higher water extraction for domestic purpose and SLR, especially in conditions of drought and low river flow. Salinity is found to be highest in late April and early May with recorded values of salinity in the study area reaching as much as 29.4 g/l. However, at the same time it should be recognised that saline intrusion into estuarine systems is closely linked to the discharge in the local rivers and canals, and increased surface flows and standing water in the landscape in some areas as a result of higher rainfall and changes in hydrology will lead to lower levels of salinity. Salinity at the local level is mainly influenced by factors such as tidal movement, river discharge, river topography, hydraulic work and seasonal climate (and drought in particular) and all these aspects are expected to change in the future. While surface water is relatively abundant during the wet season, it drops significantly during the dry season and a number of areas will be adversely affected by salinity 124 P a g e

12 for two to three months and some areas will see a net improvement in salinity levels as shown in Table 41. Table 41 - Projected change in the area effected by saline intrusion >4 for 2030 and 2050 for districts in Kien Giang and Ca Mau Ca Mau Kien Giang District % Change District % Change Net Net Ca Mau 0% 0% 0% Rach Gia 5% 0% 5% Cai Nuoc 0% 0% 0% Ha Tien 0% 0% 0% Dam Doi 0% 0% 0% An Bien 10% 0% 10% Nam Can 0% 0% 0% An Minh 1% 0% 1% Ngoc Hien 0% 0% 0% Chau Thanh 0% 0% 0% Phu Tan 0% 0% 0% Giang Thanh 10% 0% 10% Thoi Binh 0% 0% 0% Giong Rieng -5% 0% -5% Tran Van Thoi 0% 0% 0% Go Quao 10% 5% 15% U Minh 0% 0% 0% Hon Dat -30% 0% -30% Kien Hai N/A N/A N/A Kien Luong -25% -5% -30% Phu Quoc N/A N/A N/A Tan Hiep -40% 0% -40% U Minh Thuong 0% 0% 0% Vinh Thuan 0% 0% 0% Figure 91 and Figure 92 show the current baseline and projected extent of salinity for both provinces for a range of dry season thresholds of 4 ppt (parts per thousand) for 15 and 30 cm sea level rise (corresponding to 2030 and 2050 timeframes). From Table 41 above, IMHEN are projecting that for all the districts in the Ca Mau and for four districts in Kien Giang (i.e. Ha Tien, Chau Thanh, U Minh Thuong and Vinh Thuan) that there will be little appreciable change in salinity levels. This is primarily because they are already heavily salt affected. For the districts of Rach Gia, An Bien, An Minh, Giang Thanh and Go Quao IMHEN are projecting increases in salinity of between 1 and 15%, with Go Quao experiencing the greatest changes at 15%. However, the districts of Giong Rieng, Hon Dat, Kien Luong and Tan Hiep are all expected to see a net reduction in salinity of between 5 and 40%. 125 P a g e

13 Figure 91 - Maximum Saline Intrusion baseline (in the dry season) 126 P a g e

14 Figure 92 - Saline Intrusion Maps (Current baseline, 2030 and 2050). 127 P a g e

15 6.5 Effects of Typhoons and Storm Surge A Typhoon (or tropical cyclone) is defined as a tropical depression of sufficient intensity to produce gale force winds, i.e. at least 63 km/h. This kind of event is not only dangerous because it produces destructive winds but also because it is associated with torrential rains (often leading to floods), storm surge and wild sea conditions. Generally, sea surface temperatures need to be at least 26.5 C to initiate a tropical storm, although the typhoon can then move over colder waters. Typhoons and tropical cyclones are classified depending on the speed of their winds. An example of the classification is provided in Table 42. Table 42 Beaufort scale of Typhoon Classification Beaufort Scale knots km/h SW Pacific (FMS) NW Pacific (JMA) 0 6 <28 <52 Tropical Depression Tropical Depression Tropical Cyclone (1) Tropical Storm Tropical Cyclone (2) Severe Tropical Storm Severe Tropical Cyclone (3) Strong Typhoon Severe Tropical Cyclone (4) Very Strong Typhoon Severe Tropical Cyclone (5) Intense Typhoon Source: Wikipedia >120 > Exposure to Typhoons Figure 93 shows the pattern of hurricane paths in the region in past history. Since the 1950s, there have been over 200 typhoons that have affected Vietnam, although not all of them have been large. In an average typhoon season, about 30 typhoons usually develop in the northwest Pacific, of which around 10 are based in the South China Sea. Of this number, on average 4 6 will make landfall on or near Vietnam, although there have been years when 10 or more have hit, such as in 1964, 1973, 1978, 1989, and 1996 (CCSFC 1999). Kien Giang and Ca Mau are at the southerly limit for typhoons and many of the storms are at the lower end of the intensity scale. However, Typhoon Linda did cross Ca Mau in 1997 killing over 4,000. Linda was considered to be the worst storm to hit Vietnam this century, and was compounded by the storm landing at high tide in a place where there was little experience with typhoons and few means to communicate to fishermen at sea. Total damages were estimated to be $600 million (Duong Lien Chau 2000). 128 P a g e

16 Figure 93 Regional tropical cyclone tracks from , coded by Saffir-Simpson category. The points show the locations of the storms at six-hourly intervals. Source: Wikipedia. Typhoon Linda moved across the southern tip of the Ca Mau peninsula (see Figure 94) and caused widespread damage across the two provinces. It resulted in flooding, damage to mangrove and plantation forests, damage to housing and power infrastructure and inundation and associated damage to agricultural production. The greatest physical effects of Linda on the mainland would have been felt on the lightly populated East coast of Ca Mau when the typhoon approached and crossed the coast. This occurred at high tide and the associated low atmospheric pressure would have led to severe storm surge conditions and the accompanying wave field had a long fetch with waves of over 3 meters directed onto the shore. Three factors reduced the extent of the destruction of property and infrastructure and financial loss. Firstly, it was low tide when the typhoon had the maximum effect on the more populated coastal regions of western Ca Mau and Kien Giang, which reduced the effect of storm surge. Secondly, after crossing into the west sea, the typhoon tracked north along the coast. This meant that strong typhoon winds blew from the south and did not strike the coast as direct onshore winds which reduced the fetch and hence the destructive potential of the associated waves. Lastly and most importantly, in 1997 there was a much lower population and associated infrastructure to be affected. 129 P a g e

17 Figure 94 - Path of Typhoon Linda, coded by Saffir-Simpson category (See Figure 85 for categories). Source: Wikipedia Typhoon Simulations An analysis of Typhoon trends showed that while the frequency in the East Sea increased slightly, the frequency of typhoon landings in Vietnam has no clear trend. However, Typhoon landings have moved toward the South and frequency of very strong storms (> level 12) has increased, (IMHEN 2010). The analysis also showed that the typhoon season ends later. This indicates that areas that have not typically suffered from storms (such as the south eastern portion of the country and HCMC) may increasingly be vulnerable. However, cyclones are a complex phenomenon and their formation is very difficult to predict. A number of simulations for typhoons were undertaken to shed light on the potential effects of storm surge and inundation going forward to 2030 and 2050 on the understanding that these projections may never eventuate. The observations from Typhoon Linda in 1997 were used to simulate the potential effects of typhoons and storm surge on the coastlines of Ca Mau and Kien Giang under different sea level rise scenarios. As illustrated in Figure 11, the simulations show that the water surface elevation for a large scale typhoon event could be as high as 2 m in elevation, and in combined with 4-5 m waves could result in severe damage to coastal protection dykes, and fishing villages in estuaries and canal mouths along the entire coast. In particular, Ngoc Hien will be almost completely inundated and extremely strong currents are projected to flow through the Grand River resulting in erosion along the southern border of Nam Can. This would threaten road infrastructure particularly the proposed southern highway, transport and industrial infrastructure such as wharves and ferry terminals, urban areas of Nam Can town and rural housing on Ngoc Hien and along the Grand River. 130 P a g e

18 Figure 95 - Storm surge inundation and wave size simulation for a Typhoon (2050) Storm Surge During a storm event, the combined effect of low pressure and high winds result in higher than normal water levels. Both wind set-up and wave set-up are affected by the depth of the coastal waters. Where there is a narrow shallow shelf, the wave set-up is predominant, while a broad region of shallow water would cause a dominant wind set-up. For both the East and West coastlines, there is medium potential for wave setup to contribute to storm tide on the ocean facing coastlines that are exposed to waves from the dominant wave direction spanning from the northeast to the southwest monsoons. It is clear from both the observed effects on low lying study areas in the past, and the simulations from the modelling, that extreme weather events pose a significant threat to both provinces. Table 43 and Table 44 highlight the current and future projections for the area affected by storm surge for each district as a result of sea level rise. As previously noted, Ngoc Hien is most likely to be adversely effected. Ngoc Hien currently experiences inundation during high tides and storm events, and this situation is exacerbated where wet season floods coincide with the spring tide, which exhibits a difference in tidal amplitude between 0.4 to 1.2 m between the East and West Seas. 131 P a g e

19 Table 43 - The effects of Storm Surge on Districts in Ca Mau. District Total Area (ha) Current Storm Surge Storm Surge 2030 (15 cm SLR) % Affected Area (ha) % Affected Area (ha) Storm Surge 2050 (30 cm SLR) % Affected Area (ha) Ca Mau 24,929 0% - 0% - 0% - Cai Nuoc 41,700 0% - 0% - 0% - Dam Doi 83,415 <1% 260 <1% 390 1% 520 Nam Can 50,789 1% 270 5% 2,539 10% 5,079 Ngoc Hien 73,517 60% 44,110 90% 66, % 73,517 Phu Tan 46,433 1% 390 1% 585 2% 780 Thoi Binh 64,131 0% - 0% - 0% - Tran Van Thoi 70,942 1% 380 1% 570 1% 760 U Minh 77,462 <1% 301 1% 452 1% 603 Table 44 - The effects of Storm Surge on Districts in Kien Giang. District Total Area (ha) Current Storm Surge Storm Surge 2030 (15 cm SLR) % Affected Area (ha) % Affected Area (ha) Storm Surge 2050 (30 cm SLR) % Affected Area (ha) Rach Gia 10,364 1% 125 2% 188 2% 250 Ha Tien 9,952 6% % % 1,269 An Bien 40,029 1% 386 1% 579 2% 772 An Minh 59,05 1% 389 1% 583 1% 777 Chau Thanh 28,544 <1% 130 1% 195 1% 259 Giang Thanh 41,284 0% - 0% - 0% - Giong Rieng 63,929 0% - 0% - 0% - Go Quao 43,951 0% - 0% - 0% - Hon Dat 103,863 <1% 505 1% 758 1% 1,010 Kien Hai 2,558 12% % % 466 Kien Luong 47,285 1% 515 2% 773 2% 1,031 Phu Quoc 58,891 1% 506 1% 632 1% 759 Tan Hiep 42,288 0% - 0% - 0% - U Minh Thuong 43,27 0% - 0% - 0% - Vinh Thuan 39,483 0% - 0% - 0% - Other districts likely to be adversely affected from storm surge and SLR include: Dam Doi; Nam Can; Phu Tan; Tran Van Thoi; and U Minh in Ca Mau province and Rach Gia; Ha Tien; An Bien; An Minh; Chau Thanh; Hon Dat; and Kien Luong in Kien Giang province. It should also be noted that the island districts of Phu Quoc and Kien Hai are likely to be adversely affected, especially Kien Hai with between 6 and 13% of their land area (or approximately 300 to 460 hectares) inundated. 6.6 Coastal Sedimentation and Erosion Projected increases in sea level, changes in monsoonal conditions (in terms of wind and waves), and the probable increase in the frequency of extreme cyclone events will have a marked effect on coastal geomorphological process (especially longshore currents) and likely exacerbate observed trends in areas currently susceptible to erosion and sedimentation. 132 P a g e

20 Figure 96 - a) Wave height in typical SW monsoon conditions; and b) Wave height in Strong SW monsoon conditions 133 P a g e

21 This report has attempted to simulate and describe some of these potential changes, but it must stressed that this is very much a first pass assessment, and further research is required to fully understand the complex inter-relationships between the oceanographic and coastal systems in the study area. These are discussed below Changes in Monsoonal Conditions Southwest monsoons bring onshore winds and waves of up to 0.5 m offshore to much of the west coast of the Ca Mau peninsular, and 0.4 m off the coast of Kien Giang as shown in Figure 96. Waves of this size tend to transport sediments onto the shore, increasing deposition. Along with the sediment that is washed onshore is fishing debris, rubbish and water hyacinth. Stronger SW monsoons will bring stronger waves of m offshore, as shown in Figure 97. Waves of this size can cause destruction of exposed infrastructure along the coast. These waves will undermine mangroves and erode exposed earth banks. Strong northeast to east monsoons in the dry season brings large waves to the East coast of Ca Mau, as illustrated in Figure 97 below. Figure 97 - Southeast Monsoon Wave - Ca Mau Effects on Coastal Conditions It has long been recognised that low lying coastal and deltaic ecosystems are especially vulnerable to this combination of impacts associated with climate change and sea level rise, and that the risk from climate-induced factors constitutes a dangerous level of climatic change to coastal geomorphology. While erosion is intuitively the most common response to sea-level rise, it should be recognised that coasts are not passive systems. Both the East and West coastlines have historically changed over time in response to a combination of geomorphological and oceanographic factors. In particular there is evidence from the satellite imagery to indicate that the coastline of Mui Ca Mau for example has undergone significant geomorphological change over the last 100 years. The predominant coastal processes operating in the region include: Southerly littoral drift along the East coasts due to prevailing current, swell and wind wave direction. Southerly movement of material transported Wave refraction drives movement of sediment as sediment plumes and slug around Ca Mau 134 P a g e

22 Cape. Transport of material finer materials and colloidal sediments along the West coast; Onshore entrapment of sediments in coastal fringing mangroves, and movement landwards - a result of swell induced transport. Erosion and inundation due to heavy swell and rough seas generated by typhoons and monsoonal storms that can carry increased quantities of sand and silt alongshore as well as offshore. Overall, from our assessment of the coastal simulations, exposure, geomorphic characteristics and evidence of previous change, the sensitivity of different coastal landscapes of Kien Giang and Ca Mau to projected changes in climate are summarised in Table 45. Table 45 - Effects of projected climate changes on coastal landscapes of Ca Mau and Kien Giang. Location East Coast (Ca Mau) West Coast (Kien Giang and Ca Mau) Phu Quoc and Kien Hai Islands Effects on the Coastal Zone Marked reductions in the movement of sediments from the Bassac River (and other Mekong tributaries) in the north to the east coast of Ca Mau in the south, due to lower sediment loads in the Mekong; In addition, increases in erosion due to more energetic wave conditions and intense monsoonal conditions and storms. Possible loss of mangroves and other erosion buffer leading to exposure of large areas in Ngoc Hien, Nam Can and Dam Doi, resulting in damage and loss of natural ecosystem and impacts on waterways. Lower lying areas such Ngoc Hien are likely to be subject to inundation both as result of sea level rise and superimposition of elevated surges in extreme events. Overtopping and ponding inland could lead to loss of land from permanent inundation. Marked increases in erosion due to more energetic wave conditions and intense monsoonal conditions and storms, resulting in degradation of coastal protection works and progressive loss of coastal land. Coastal erosion is already a problem, with estimated rates of land loss of in the order of 5 10 m per year in some locations, and in some areas as much as 0.5 km. Loss of mangroves and other erosion buffer leading to exposure of large areas in Hon Dat and Kien Luong resulting in damage and loss of agricultural land and urban settlements and infrastructure. Increased overtopping of existing sea dyke system wall along settlement, decrease in buffer zone between wave action and infrastructure. Potential surface overflow over land with subsequent ponding, particular in basin profile locations. Shore wave energy and the magnitude of beach profile change can be expected to increase as a consequence of changes in the frequency and intensity of monsoonal and extreme events. This will lead to possible erosion of beaches with undermining of tree line/tree felling, loss of coastal vegetation, degradation of coastal protection works and progressive loss of coastal land. Inundation, in combination with increased erosion, will potentially lead to island breaching in other lower lying locations e.g. the coastal dune and lagoon complex on the west coast of Phu Quoc. In addition, elevated water levels and coincident storm surges will likely cause flooding with 750 ha on Phu Quoc and 460 ha in Kien Hai being susceptible to inundation. 135 P a g e

23 Many of the coastal areas on the West Coast are potentially threatened by a combination of human pressures, climate change and sea-level rise, and possible increases in monsoonal conditions and extreme weather events. Future impacts on these low-lying coastal areas will almost certainly include changes in coastal morphology, through accelerated coastal erosion, sedimentation in the coastal embayment s, and overtopping of sea dykes from the sea and storm surge. The first line of defence from the effects of wave action on the coast is mangroves. In the past the mangrove ecosystem was up to 2 kilometres wide. Behind the mangroves, protection of crops and urban structures was achieved through the construction of earth sea dykes. The effects of storm surge are enhanced by the human pressures on mangrove systems such as fuelwood and timber cutting that is also contributing to the loss of mangroves. Larger wave heights will penetrate through a thin line of mangroves and erode earth dykes. The conversion of mangroves into aquaculture ponds has made considerably more infrastructure potentially exposed to storm surge. As mangroves are removed or eroded, aquaculture ponds are exposed and breached. This leads to saline intrusion into ponds, and generally abandonment. As a result the regular line of fringing wave tolerant mangroves (Avicennia spp.) is fragmented, exposing less robust species resulting in further mangrove loss. The fragmented mangrove system allows waves to penetrate to the back of the abandoned pond advancing erosion in steps of 50 to 100 meters. Earth dykes that have been exposed by mangrove removal or erosion will be breached within a single wet season. Figure 98 - Dyke breach at Vam Ray, Hon Dat District Courtesy GIZ. In many areas of the coast of both provinces the band fringing mangroves is relatively thin and the sea dyke forms the major protection from storm surge. In these areas breaching of a dike has a number of results. In districts where agriculture occurs behind the sea dyke E.g. Hon Dat, U Minh, and Tran Van Thoi, larger waves that overtop a dyke, or flow through breached dykes, can destroy houses and farm infrastructure. Salt water that comes through breached dykes will inundate crops and fish ponds. In aquaculture areas, sea water will breach pond walls and wash away stock. In areas of Hon Dat, fruit orchards were destroyed by salt water when a dyke breached in Farmers in the commune have now switched to sugar cane as a perennial crop to minimise loss due to future breaches. Most of the small islands in Phu Quoc and Tien Hai districts (such as An Toi and Soi Anh islands) are limestone karst pinnacles, and their shorelines are well protected by the rocky shorelines, interspersed 136 P a g e

24 with short beaches. These shorelines will only be subject to substantial retreat if barriers were eroded or overtopped. However, the geomorphology of the island of Phu Quoc is quite different, and Phu Quoc has a number of long sand beaches that are potentially exposed to ocean, and that do not have the natural protection afforded by coral reef and will be potentially more vulnerable to sea level rise and changes in erosion and sedimentation patterns. The relatively low-lying coastal lagoon on the west coast is likely to be prone to inundation risk due to sea level rise, and increasing erosion on the east coast may lead to reduction of the low lying sand areas, in particular the main tourist beach where tourist development and artificial reinforcements mean there is no room for horizontal beach adjustment. The potential geomorphic response of different beachscapes on Phu Quoc and other low set islands to the projected impacts of climate change will differ depending on the type of profile in a given location (i.e. profile shape in association with the substrate of which it is composed), and this should be the subject of future studies Other Effects Sediment Loss As mentioned previously, one of the key findings from the coastal modelling is the dramatic reduction in sediment loads in the Mekong mainstream (and the Bassac River in particular), and its effects on sedimentation and deposition on the Ca Mau peninsula and the Kien Giang coastline. It is estimated that there will be a 60% reduction in sediment loads over the next 20 years, and the impacts on of this sedimentation deficit are not well understood, and should be the focus of future research. However, some preliminary conclusions can be drawn: A net decline in sedimentation of this magnitude will most likely lead to a destabilisation of the coastal erosion and sedimentation patterns on both the East and West coasts; The reduction in sediment loads will most likely lead to a shift in the rates of sediment deposition and replenishment in coastal seagrass and mangrove systems; There could be localised loss of nutrients and sediment to support agriculture, aquaculture and marine capture fisheries in coastal areas. Kien Giang Province has 205 km of coastline and it is estimated that at least 25 percent of this coastline is badly eroded. This shoreline has more than 5,000 ha of mangrove protection forests, forming a thin green line of salt-tolerant vegetation that buffers and protects valuable farming lands from rising seas and storm damage. This tacit coastal defence is threatened by global climate change, as projected rises in sea levels take effect. Subsidence (natural or human-induced) Changing water regime might affect to the delicate balance of mangrove restoration and growth in the study area. This could lead to a further loss of the mangroves along the coast line, and increased coastal erosion, compounding the existing problem of the exploitation of mangrove for construction and fire wood, and shrimp cultivation in mangrove forest area. 137 P a g e

25 Figure 99 - mapping of current erosion in Kien Giang (from GIZ 2010) and corresponding changes in deposition and erosion patterns between 2009 and Synthesis of the Climate Change Impacts on Natural Systems Table 46 below summarises the expert assessment of the adequacy of control measures to reduce the exposure to the important impacts of climate change on natural systems. The impact of each hazard on the infrastructure of each district is rated according to the combination of exposure to the hazard and the extent of existing measures that are in place to reduce the impacts. The assessments assumed that no further adaptation response occurs. As illustrated in the Table below, whilst the exposure to salinity is widespread and considered to be major for just about all of the mainland districts, where control measures are largely in place the impacts are generally only moderate. This is the same for the nature and extent of coastal erosion. Whilst all of the coastal districts are exposed to coastal erosion, for most districts the impacts were assessed as intermediate and/or partly controlled. However Ngoc Hien was assessed as major and largely uncontrolled as it is the only coastal district not protected by the sea-dyke system. The sea dyke system, with an average height above sea level of 1.2 meters currently provides adequate protection for all the coastal districts except Ngoc Hien, and excluding the island districts of Phu Quoc and Kien Hai. Obviously Ngoc Hien, Kien Hai and to a lesser extent Phu Quoc are highly vulnerable to the combined effects of sea level rise, storm surge and coastal erosion. While much of the West Coast of Phu Quoc is exposed to coastal erosion, most of the infrastructure is located in areas that are well above the current sea level or are in protected locations. In terms of magnitude and extent, river flooding and inundation clearly represent the greatest threats to both provinces and especially to Kien Giang where twelve of the fifteen districts were assessed as having major exposure with little control mechanisms in place. In particular, the districts of Chau 138 P a g e

26 Thanh, Giang Thanh, Giong Rieng, Go Quao, Hon Dat, Kien Luong and Tan Hiep were considered to be highly vulnerable and threatened by flooding and inundation. Table 46- Summary of the suitability of measures in place to control climate change impacts on natural systems in each district. Hazard Erosion & Flooding & Salinisation Storm Surge District Sedimentation Drought Ca Mau Cai Nuoc Dam Doi Nam Can Ngoc Hien Phu Tan Thoi Binh Tran Van Thoi U Minh Rach Gia Ha Tien An Bien An Minh Chau Thanh Giang Thanh Giong Rieng Go Quao Hon Dat Kien Hai Kien Luong Phu Quoc Tan Hiep U Minh Thuong Vinh Thuan Minor exposure and/or well controlled Major exposure but largely controlled Intermediate exposure and/or partly Major exposure and little control controlled measures in place Ca Mau Province Kien Giang Province As previously noted, these climate change impacts are not new to the people of the delta, and with the exception of Ngoc Hien, most of the districts have control measures in place to deal with the level of impacts that they are currently exposed to. This is not to say that coastal and flood protection is adequate. Upgrading of both the sea dyke system and the flood control system is urgently needed for all the mainland districts, as are coastal and erosion control measures for both Phu Quoc and Kien Hai islands. 139 P a g e

27 7. Vulnerability, Risk and Hotspot Analysis The primary purpose of this section of the study is to identify and evaluate the net biophysical and social vulnerability of Ca Mau and Kien Giang provinces. In this context and for the purposes of this Report, vulnerability is considered to be a function of: Exposure to climatic conditions and sensitivity to the impacts of climate change; The frequency, magnitude and extent of climate-related risks to the community, assessed in terms of the probability of occurrence (likelihood) and magnitude of hazards (consequence); and The ability or adaptive capacity to respond to climate-related risks (including adaptive measures, coping strategies or actions taken in reaction to the impacts or to mitigate the risks). 7.1 Vulnerability The study involved developing a vulnerability profile for each district for comparison and analysis across the study area. As previously discussed, the principle climate change and sea level rise impacts considered for this study were: The impacts of flooding and inundation associated with and extreme weather events (and in particular typhoons); The impacts of salinity and saline intrusion associated with changes in hydrology and sea level rise; The impacts of storm surge associated with changes in sea level rise and extreme events; The impacts of erosion and sedimentation associated with changes in sea level rise, extreme events, coastal and oceanographic conditions. Future climatic conditions based on global climate scenarios and the outputs from our impact modelling were used to produce estimates of exposure and resilience to flooding, inundation, salinity and storm surge. These were then developed and applied as a composite of vulnerability indicators to assess the vulnerability. The indicators (as outlined in 2.2.2), were used to represent the three characteristics of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity), in order to: Establish specific sectoral baseline characteristics for population, poverty, agriculture and livelihoods, industry and energy and urban settlements and transportation; and Develop future vulnerability profiles and assess the future impacts associated with our different climate change scenarios for 2030 and The previous chapter summarised the type, combination, and level of exposure to the climate change effects for each district, and this forms the basis of our assessment of climate change impacts, now and for 2030 and The following sections quantify these impacts for each sector, in order to gauge the relative levels of exposure and sensitivity necessary to determine climate change vulnerability and risks for each sector including: population; poverty; livelihood and agricultural systems; industry; energy; and transport infrastructure and systems. 140 P a g e

28 7.1.1 Population Vulnerability Population Vulnerability refers to the vulnerability of people and populations in the study area to the effects of climate change, and recognises that there are distinct regional differences in the demographic composition and trends (such as the migration of people towards coastal urban areas which yields a greater than average growth of the population in some districts). Population growth is a major driver for change in the delta, especially in terms of increasing the number of people and households exposed to climate change hazards, but also increase of demands on the available natural resources and its implications on sustainable livelihoods. The relationship between population change and the associated demographic trends and climate change will affect the ability of local communities and households to build resilience to climate change. Population information in this context is be used as a proxy for human sensitivity to climate change hazard exposure. Over the long term, population growth in the study area is likely to contribute to and exacerbate not only the vulnerability to climate change, but exacerbate the difficulties in adapting to the potentially detrimental changes in climate. In this context a district is considered to be vulnerable if it exhibits characteristics such as high population numbers, rates of growth or large family size. In this study population vulnerability is measured by combining information on these characteristics and indicators at the commune level. This not only illustrates the spatial patterns of population vulnerability, but also provides an understanding how population growth will drive change in the composition and structure of communities over time. Table 47 and Table 48 highlight the key baseline indicators used in this study for each province. Table 47 - Comparative overview of Ca Mau district population (number, density) and growth rate. District Population Population Vulnerability Baseline Indicator Population Density (Persons/ha) Average Family Size Population at Working Age Growth Rate % Ca Mau 218, , % Cai Nuoc 137, , % Dam Doi 182, , % Nam Can 66, , % Ngoc Hien 78, , % Phu Tan 105, , % Thoi Binh 140, , % Tran Van Thoi 187, , % U Minh 102, , % Table 48 - Comparative overview of Kien Giang district population (number, density) and growth rate. District Population Population Vulnerability Baseline Indicator Population Density (Persons/ha) Average Family Size Population at Working Age Growth Rate % Rach Gia 226, , % Ha Tien 45, , % An Bien 123, , % An Minh 115, , % Chau Thanh 151, , % Giang Thanh 27, , % Giong Rieng 212, , % Go Quao 137, , % 141 P a g e

29 District Population Population Vulnerability Baseline Indicator Population Density (Persons/ha) Average Family Size Population at Working Age Growth Rate % Hon Dat 171, , % Kien Hai 21, , % Kien Luong 79, , % Phu Quoc 93, , % Tan Hiep 143, , % U Minh Thuong 67, , % Vinh Thuan 89, , % The indicators and measures outlined in Table 47, together with future projections of population growth were used to estimate or rate the relative population vulnerability at the district levels as illustrated in Figure 100 and Figure 101. The comparative vulnerabilities of each district are represented geographically in Figure 102. Figure Comparative population vulnerabilities of each district in Ca Mau. Figure Comparative population vulnerabilities of each district in Kien Giang. 142 P a g e

30 Figure Population vulnerability rankings for current and future climate change scenarios. 143 P a g e

31 The population vulnerability map was derived primarily from the population and demographic and data collected during the district survey. For each province the districts were ranked out of 40 according to these indicators. It was found that: The current population vulnerability for all the districts in Ca Mau and Kien Giang was low; By 2030 two out nine districts in Ca Mau and two out of fifteen districts in Kien were assessed as being medium; By 2050, Cau Mau City and Tran Van Thoi in Ca Mau were assessed as being highly vulnerable, and a further three districts exhibiting medium vulnerability; By 2050 in Kien Giang, the rating for Rach Gia City and Chau Thanh is expected to increase from medium to high, primarily due to a combination of high population growth and limited land area. The Mekong Delta historically has had a very strong pattern of migration from rural to urban areas and especially to Ho Chi Minh City. The study found that there are strong regional patterns of migration in both Kien Giang, with most districts exhibiting a net outward migration pattern to the provincial capital in the first instance, or to Can Tho or Ho Chi Minh. Figure 94 - Ca Mau Population Migration Rates (2010). Figure 95- Kien Giang Migration Rates The relatively low population growth rates, in combination with the migration data collected for the year 2010 during the field survey suggest that there is considerable net outward migration from the 144 P a g e

32 districts to larger centres such as Can Tho and HCMC. Both Ca Mau City and Rach Gia are benefitting from large influxes of local, repatriating and foreign capital into residential and commercial developments in new subdivisions on the outskirts of traditional centres. In common with other rural areas in Vietnam it can be expected that the rural-urban drift will continue due to rural under-employment and growing perceived urban attractions. In districts with rapidly increasing populations and small land areas, such as Chau Thanh and Tran Van Thoi, parcels of land to be passed on to the sons by families are becoming too small to be productive, and when the land resources available to a family are not sufficient to provide a sustainable livelihood for a family, then the sons and daughters are more likely to look for work as hired labour in regional centres, or migrate to the cities. The influx of migrants into regional centres is likely increase the vulnerability of local residents as the pressure on land and natural resources availability declines. In addition to this, the new migrants themselves will be more vulnerable to climate change due to their lack of access to land resources and lack of wealth. The Mekong Delta has the second highest level of landlessness in the country. Most of the poor in the region are either landless or have very limited land holdings, and the rate of landlessness among the rural poor is also increasing (Vietnam Consultative Group 2010). Unfortunately we were unable to gain access to information or data on either migration or landlessness at the district level, as this information is held by the police Poverty Vulnerability As previously outlined, poverty vulnerability refers to the vulnerability of poor and near poor households and people in the study area to the effects of climate change, and recognises that the exposure of poor people varies across the region, as does their sensitivity due to a range of factors such as ethnicity, lack of access to agricultural land, education and health services, fresh drinking water, power and markets. Poor countries and people tend to be particularly vulnerable to deviations from average climatic conditions and climatic extremes (ADB 2009). Poverty diminishes the resilience and adaptive capacity of people and households, especially where people lack savings and capital for investment to adopt better production technology and also lack awareness and knowledge of adaption options available. Like population, poverty encompasses dimensions relevant to climate change vulnerability, such as the vulnerability to impacts and future shocks and the ability to build resilience and adapt to climate change. This study recognizes that poverty is multi-dimensional and includes health, wealth, education and access to natural resources in addition to income. Vulnerability can be measured by combining information on these indicators with different poverty measures at the commune level. This illuminates the spatial patterns of poverty and allows for an analysis of the vulnerability of the poor and near poor communities and households to climate change impacts and hazards. This study used indicators to assess the impact of a range of adverse shocks, such as flooding, inundation, saline intrusion and storm surge on poverty and the poor in both provinces. Table 49 and Table 50 highlight the current number of poor households in each district, and provides the baseline from which the level of impacts from flooding, inundation, salinity and storm surge on the poor for 2030 and 2050 scenarios can be estimated. These estimates assume that relative poverty levels will stay the same (i.e. without poverty reduction interventions). This assumption recognises that while a high proportion of people have moved out of poverty in Vietnam, many near poor remain in a precarious position, and could easily slip back into poverty due to the adverse shocks (World Bank, 2010). However it must also be acknowledged that there has been a strong reduction in overall poverty in Vietnam in the past 20 years, with the fraction of households living below the poverty line at less than 15 percent in 2006, compared to over 58 percent in 1993 (Vietnam Consultative Group 2010). 145 P a g e

33 In Vietnam, poverty is officially measured by a standard government measure; according to Decision 170/2005/QĐ-TTg, poor households in rural areas have a monthly income per person of below 200,000 VND and below 260,000 VND for urban areas. Areas with households below this standard are considered poor. Table 49 - Comparative overview of Ca Mau district poverty indicators District Poverty Vulnerability Baseline Indicators Average Annual Income per Capita Poor Households % Teachers per 1000 Doctors per 1000 % Ethnic Ca Mau 50,035, % % Cai Nuoc 15,399, % % Dam Doi 18,156, % % Nam Can 22,656, % % Ngoc Hien 13,500, % % Phu Tan 15,490, % % Thoi Binh 10,080, % % Tran Van Thoi 13,000, % % U Minh 10,500, % % Table 50 - Comparative overview of Kien Giang district poverty indicators District Average Annual Income per Capita Poverty Vulnerability Baseline Indicators Poor Households % Teachers per 1000 Doctors per 1000 % Ethnic Rach Gia 30,908, % % Ha Tien 25,006, % % An Bien 15,220, % % An Minh 14,583, % % Chau Thanh 15,665, % % Giang Thanh 19,270, % % Giong Rieng 11,426, % % Go Quao 19,000, % % Hon Dat 16885, % % Kien Hai 27,640, % % Kien Luong 20,463, % % Phu Quoc 30,414, % % Tan Hiep 22,204, % % U Minh Thuong 14,400, % % Vinh Thuan 21,325, % % Using the indicators and measures outlined in Table 49 and Table 50, together with future projections of population growth and expert opinion of the quality of control measures the relative poverty 146 P a g e

34 vulnerability at the district levels was rated, Figure 103 and Figure 104. The comparative vulnerabilities of each district are represented geographically in Figure 105 below. Figure 103 Ca Mau poverty vulnerability ratings Phu Quoc Kien Hai Kien Luong Ha Tien Giang Thanh Go Quao Vinh Thuan Tan Hiep Rach Gia U Minh Thuong Giong Rieng An Bien An Minh Hon Dat Chau Thanh 2010 Current 2030 A B A B2 Figure Kien Giang poverty vulnerability ratings. 147 P a g e

35 Figure Poverty vulnerability rankings for current and future climate change scenarios. 148 P a g e

36 Vulnerability to shocks, whether they be to climate variability or otherwise (such as health or unemployment shocks), has long been identified as one of the major challenges for the poor in Vietnam (Vietnam Consultative Group 2010). The poor tend to have less diversity of income sources, and less access to credit to fill in income gaps, and less adaptive capacity in terms of diversification of occupations. Hence they are extremely vulnerable when one or more of their income sources are strongly affected by climate. The poverty vulnerability map was derived primarily from socio-economic data collected during the district survey. While physical vulnerabilities may be geographically mapped with some precision, it is social constructed vulnerabilities such as poverty vulnerability are often are much more difficult to assess and to identify clearly because they do not easily fit into definite geographic spaces. This study used a combination of the standard indicators for Vietnam (such as: household income levels; ethnicity; education, literacy and access to schools; and access to health services) together with access to land resources. The districts of each province were ranked out of 40 according to these indicators and it was found that: The current poverty vulnerability for all the districts in Ca Mau and Kien Giang was low; By 2030 two out nine districts in Ca Mau (i.e. Dam Doi and Ngoc Hien); and five out of fifteen districts in Kien Giang were assessed as being medium (these being Giong Rieng, An Minh, Hon Dat and Chau Thanh); and By 2050, Dam Doi and Ngoc Hien in Ca Mau and Chau Thanh in Kien Giang were assessed as being highly vulnerable. Whilst all the indicators of poverty are important, in Kien Giang and Ca Mau the primary driver of poverty vulnerability proved to be access to land resources. As access to productive land is important for reducing rural poverty, the impacts of climate change on the productivity of land will further constrain efforts to combat rural poverty. In almost all districts limited space is either a problem now, or will be in the near future. In the Mekong delta pressure on space will increase dramatically in future, and this in turn will place unparalleled pressure on household livelihood systems and the regional economy in general Agriculture and Livelihoods Vulnerability Many studies in recent years have focused on the idea of sustainable livelihoods as a useful framework in which to contextualize people s relationship with their environment (Leach et al. 1999; Pretty and Ward 2001). The term livelihood refers to the way in which people make a living, and this study, rather than simply looking at agricultural production to assess vulnerability, has incorporate a range of households livelihood indicators such as: household income; household occupations; diversity of income streams; and access to natural resources (land and water). Livelihoods and sources of employment in Kien Giang and Ca Mau are closely tied to agriculture and natural resource use. Data from the project survey show that both employment and economic indicators underline the continuing importance of agriculture and natural resource-based productive activities on the Delta. FAO (2007) points out that agriculture, aquaculture and fisheries are all highly sensitive to climate change and climate change will have a serious impact on their production functions. When a households livelihoods depend on a small number of sources of income without much diversification, and when those income sources are in fields that are highly climate dependent, like agriculture and fishing, households can be said to have climate-sensitive resource dependence (Adger 1999). 149 P a g e

37 Agriculture (including aquaculture, fisheries and associated primary industry), are among the most climate-sensitive of all sectors. The interactions between the weather-sensitive agricultural sector, climate change, and the natural resource base are highly complex and interdependent with the livelihoods of rural communities in the study area. For the purposes of this study agriculture and livelihoods vulnerability refers to the vulnerability of agricultural farming, infrastructure and livelihood systems in the study area to the effects of climate change, and recognizes that In Vietnam the single farmer household is considered to be the basic economic unit upon which the agricultural sector is built. In this context, agricultural and livelihood system are considered to be vulnerable if there is a high probability of loss or damage from climate change from which there is a high probability of it not recovering quickly or fully because the effects are either irreversible or the opportunities of recouping the losses are negligible. This study measured agricultural and livelihood vulnerability by combining data and information from the district and sectoral surveys shown in Table 51 and Table 52. The indicators incorporated: human assets (occupations, access to employment, adults at working age etc); natural assets (water, land, aquatic etc.); economic (sectoral productivity, GDP and productive assets); and financial capital (household wealth characteristics) together with water reliant livelihood strategies. Table 51 - Impacts of flooding, salinity, storm surge and coastal erosion and sedimentation on poverty and the poor in Ca Mau. % Rural Population Livelihood Vulnerability Baseline Indicators Average Annual Rice Crop GDP per Land per Household Person (ha) Number of Livelihood Streams Aquaculture Land per Person (ha) District Ca Mau 33% 5 12,208, Cai Nuoc 74% 4 3,624, Dam Doi 95% 6 3,955, Nam Can 72% 5 5,664, Ngoc Hien 94% 7 3,308, Phu Tan 86% 6 3,527, Thoi Binh 92% 7 2,285, Tran Van Thoi 77% 7 3,095, U Minh 98% 8 2,329, P a g e

38 Table 52 - Impacts of flooding, salinity, storm surge and coastal erosion and sedimentation on poverty and the poor in Kien Giang. % Rural Population Livelihood Vulnerability Baseline Indicators Average Annual Rice Crop GDP per Land per Household Person (ha) Number of Livelihood Streams Aquaculture Land per Person (ha) District Rach Gia 0% 6 6,734, Ha Tien 0% 6 6,019, An Bien 91% 6 3,501, An Minh 95% 6 3,371, Chau Thanh 86% 7 3,579, Giang Thanh 100% 4 4,932, Giong Rieng 91% 4 2,625, Go Quao 93% 4 4,517, Hon Dat 82% 7 3,810, Kien Hai 100% 7 6,774, Kien Luong 57% 8 4,990, Phu Quoc 43% 7 7,587, Tan Hiep 86% 5 4,910, U Minh Thuong 100% 4 3,408, Vinh Thuan 85% 5 4,981, Measures of exposure to climate change impacts can be estimated using the application of GIS to map the projected size of the area of each district that is impacted by each hazard. This mapping can be carried out for each time period and climate scenario. However, estimates of the level of measures that are in place to protect infrastructure are also required. Accordingly expert opinion was incorporated into the vulnerability rating as a weighting factor for each time slice; baseline, 2030 and An overview of the exposure to hazards and the status of control measures to protect agricultural infrastructure is shown in Table P a g e

39 Table 53 - Overview of exposure to climate change impacts and comparative status of control measures for agricultural infrastructure for each district. Ca Mau Province Kien Giang Province Exposure to Salinity (%) Exposure to Storm Exposure to Flood (%) Control Control Surge (%) Control District Current measures Current measures Current measures Ca Mau 19% 52% 71% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% Cai Nuoc 47% 70% 82% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% Dam Doi 13% 28% 36% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 1% Nam Can 36% 47% 58% 100% 100% 100% 1% 5% 10% Ngoc Hien 22% 29% 39% 100% 100% 100% 60% 90% 100% Phu Tan 36% 46% 62% 100% 100% 100% 1% 1% 2% Thoi Binh 6% 19% 35% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% Tan Van Thoi 42% 58% 79% 100% 100% 100% 1% 1% 1% U Minh 9% 22% 42% 100% 100% 100% 0% 1% 1% Rach Gia 70% 75% 81% 95% 100% 100% 1% 2% 2% Ha Tien 64% 67% 70% 100% 100% 100% 6% 10% 13% An Bien 38% 69% 81% 90% 100% 100% 1% 1% 2% An Minh 9% 39% 64% 99% 100% 100% 1% 1% 1% Chau Thanh 72% 82% 87% 100% 100% 100% 0% 1% 1% Giang Thanh 98% 98% 99% 90% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% Giong Rieng 83% 89% 94% 25% 20% 20% 0% 0% 0% Go Quao 61% 86% 92% 70% 80% 85% 0% 0% 0% Hon Dat 96% 97% 98% 50% 20% 20% 0% 1% 1% Kien Hai 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 12% 15% 18% Kien Luong 89% 89% 91% 100% 75% 70% 1% 2% 2% Phu Quoc 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% Tan Hiep 91% 92% 98% 60% 20% 20% 0% 0% 0% U Minh Thuong 17% 34% 52% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% Vinh Thuan 14% 45% 68% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% Adequate, now and in the near future (around 10 years) Adequate, but adaptation needed in view of climate change (long term) Improvements are desirable in view of economic development (medium term) Rehabilitation or upgrading urgently needed 152 P a g e

40 The overall distribution of agricultural and livelihood vulnerability for Kien Giang and Ca Mau province was therefore assessed as a function of; the above key indicators; the existing and projected climate exposure and hazard for sea level rise, inundation and salinity; and the existence of control measures. The assessment is based on the assumption that the current demonstrable vulnerability in the agricultural sector is the best available basis for assessing the future climatic risks for that sector. The districts in the study area were ranked according to their relative exposure to flooding, inundation, salinity and storm surge. Figure 106 and Figure 107 illustrate the current and future vulnerability ratings for 2030 and 2050 under A2 and B2 emission scenarios for Ca Mau and Kien Giang respectively Ngoc Hien Nam Can Phu Tan Cai Nuoc Thoi Binh Ca Mau U Minh Dam Doi Tran Van Thoi 2010 Current 2030 A B A B2 Figure Ca Mau Agricultural and Livelihood Vulnerability Ratings Kien Hai Phu Quoc Ha Tien Giang Thanh U Minh Thuong Vinh Thuan Tan Hiep Chau Thanh Kien Luong Giong Rieng Go Quao An Bien An Minh Rach Gia Hon Dat 2010 Current 2030 A B A B2 Figure Kien Giang Agricultural and Livelihood Vulnerability Ratings 153 P a g e

41 The comparative vulnerabilities of each district are represented geographically in Figure 108 below. Figure Agriculture and livelihood vulnerability rankings for current and future climate change scenarios 154 P a g e

42 This allowed us to build district profiles that show the cross-sectoral interrelationships and gain an understanding how population growth and regional development will drive change in the composition and structure of rural communities, agriculture and industry over time. Climate and climate variability are therefore important elements of the complex web of factors influencing people s livelihoods and agricultural systems, and inherently linked and interdependent. The level of exposure to climate hazards such as flooding, inundation and salinity, together with a heavy dependence on natural resources for their livelihoods make rural communities in both Kien Giang and Ca Mau vulnerable. However the overall agricultural and livelihood vulnerability for all districts in Kien Giang and Ca Mau were currently assessed as being low to medium primarily because of the level of control, adaptation and resilience exhibited in all districts except Ngoc Hien; Further to this, it is expected that this situation will change by 2030, and by 2050 the rating for all mainland districts is expected to increase from medium to high, primarily due to the increase in the level of exposure to flooding and inundation, and the heavy reliance on water based livelihood and agricultural systems. Rural households in both Kien Giang and Ca Mau to tend rely heavily on climate-sensitive resources such as agricultural land and climate-sensitive activities such as rice farming and aquaculture. Climate change impacts such as flooding and inundation, salinity and storm surge reduce the availability of these local natural resources, limiting the options for rural households that depend on natural resources for consumption or income generation. The most vulnerable districts are those with a large number of households that are highly dependent on water-reliant farming systems (such as the rice-based system), and are most exposed to river based flooding and inundation. The coastal districts, whilst being adversely affected by salinity and storm surge were assessed as less vulnerable, primarily dyke to the higher level of control and or protection afforded by the sea dyke and sluice gate system Effects on Agricultural and Livelihood Systems Agriculture is the most important sector for both Kien Giang and Ca Mau, as it underpins not only regional economy, but any loss of production in agricultural sector will effect household livelihoods, income, food security, poverty growth and sustainability in other sectors. Agriculture plays a critical role in both Kien Giang and Ca Mau in terms of income generation, employment, economic growth and food security. Agricultural production, processing, and related services are by far the important source of income in most districts (approaching 30% of GDP). However, the agricultural sector is highly climate sensitive and potential adverse changes in temperature, precipitation and the frequency of extreme events (for example, droughts, floods, forest fires) as a result of climate change are likely to increase the vulnerability of poor rural communities. Projected changes in the incidence, frequency, intensity, and duration of climate extremes (for example, heat waves, rainfall events, flooding, and drought), as well as more gradual changes in the average climate will notably threaten their livelihoods and will place a strain on institutions, agricultural production and regional growth. This risk is further exacerbated by the relatively low productivity associated with a lack of capacity to adapt to the present climate in many districts, and this will have long term implications for the viability of the agricultural sector in both provinces. There are two major household farming systems in the study area, these being: Irrigated paddy rice-based farming; and Rice-shrimp farming. There are also a number of other new and emerging aquaculture based livelihood systems ranging from commercial scale shrimp farming through to mangrove forest aquaculture and penned fisheries system. 155 P a g e

43 This study focused on the two major systems, as 65% of rural households in Kien Giang and 73% of households in Ca Mau are involved in either of these two systems. Rice-based Systems The traditional irrigated paddy rice production is the major livelihood system in the northern and central parts of the region. Other short term crops such as vegetables and annual fruit are increasingly being alternated with the rice crop. Subsidiary vegetables, coconuts, bananas and Melaleuca or Eucalypt tree crops plantings are common together with supplementary freshwater aquaculture and livestock production for home consumption or sale. The rice-based system is dominant system in inland areas where fresh water is readily available for irrigation, and where salinity is not a significant problem. Typically rice is cropped into the early part of the flood season until the flood level attains the top of the dyke. The inundated fields are then utilised for fishery activities during the peak flooding season. Areas with dykes higher than the mean peak flood level are considered to have year-round flood protection, which allows triple rice cropping to take place. The wet season crop is established as soon as possible to avoid possible crop damages from flooding more water is required to irrigate the rice during early periods of the crop. Therefore, rice cultivation consumes more water in the triple cropping than in the double cropping patterns. Due to the importance of rice production to both the region and to national food security, there has been considerable research into the potential impacts of climate change on rice production, particularly with regards to salinity. Some important results are shown in Table 54. Table 54 - Summary of effects on salinity on rice crops Description of stress Salinity stress at planting time Sustained salinity of over 4 ppt at planting with no flushing Sustained salinity of over 4 ppt at planting - flushed with fresh before death Salinity levels of 3.5 ppt at flowering time (Source: Preston and Clayton 2008) Result Delayed maturity dates from 5 10 days Mortality of most seedlings 20% reduction in yield % reduction in yield. In considering other aspects of climate change, a number of crop simulation studies have been carried out. A study by IMHEN, simulated crop production with projected climate conditions in 2020, 2050 and The results shown in Figure 109 suggest that the yield of the sub-region will decrease and that the extent of the reduction varies with season (IMHEN 2009). Figure Modelled changes in rice production in 2020, 2050 and Source: IMHEN P a g e

44 In a study by the World Bank, Mekong River Delta Rice yields are projected to decline by 6.3 to 12 percent; yields of other crops are projected to decline by 3.4 to 26.5 percent. The largest yield reduction can take place under any of the three climate scenarios tested, depending on crop type (World Bank 2010). However, these studies do not incorporate CO 2 fertilization and a recent modelling study by CSIRO showed that in the Mekong River Delta while there is slight direct impact of temperature increase on the yield of irrigated rice, this is offset by CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere and a net increase in rice yield is projected. The study also found that there is no impact of climate change on the yield of dry season rice if the increased irrigation requirements (11 percent) are met (Mainuddin 2011). The dry season river flows are projected to increase, indicating that these requirements will be met in some saline free areas. The results of the extreme rainfall modelling indicate that extreme events will increase in intensity which will increase the impacts of localised flooding on rice crops. However it is likely that the impacts will be minimal as the system incorporates localised water management. Rice-Shrimp Aquaculture Systems The rice-shrimp farming system is the dominant farming system in those areas in the Delta that are seasonally affected by saline intrusion and salinity. Under this system shrimp and /or fish are produced in the paddy field during the dry-season fallow period, and rice is still cultivated during the wet season when there is an abundance of fresh water. Most of the rice-shrimp farms are typically small scale ( m 2 ) and run by individual families, and occur in the coastal saline-intrusion belt of Giang Thanh, Kien Luong, Hon Dat, An Bien, An Minh, U Minh and Tran Van Thoi Districts. Over the last three decades, many areas that were previously used for natural aquaculture or mixed cropping / rice paddy land have been converted to commercial shrimp farms, with more than 400,000 hectares in the region currently being devoted to intensive shrimp aquaculture. This is an intensive, brackish water aquaculture system that requires high levels of investment and technological knowhow. However it also offers the potential for very high returns. There are a number of potential climate impacts specific to the rice shrimp farming system. One impact is a reduced cropping window. Lower than average rainfall at the beginning of the rainy season leads to higher salinity in canals in May and early June, while heavy rainfall late in the season results in low salinity. As flushing of the paddy requires 40 mm to fall in a 10 day period there is the potential for delays in planting the rice crop (because of need to flush out salts) and reduced yields due to end of season salinity damage (Preston and Clayton 2008). Extreme hot temperature for several days (perceived by farmers as a recent climate change that has impacted on their shrimp farming production) has led to increase in surface heat and large diurnal temperature fluctuation. In the same vein a study conducted by World Fish Centre (2009), found that the hot temperature increased harmful algal blooms that released toxins in the water, reduced dissolved oxygen, spread of pathogens, and potentially threatened fish health and growth rates. Flooding as a result of canal / river water level rise may cause damage to farm infrastructure including pond dykes, sluice gate and other facilities and can contribute to the spread of disease. In addition, storms with heavy rain and wind can cause rapid changes, in water quality and pond salinity, especially during the transition between wet and dry season and this has implications for management of the water system in the transitional zones between rice-based and shrimp based aquaculture systems. The projected increase in the intensity of extreme rainfall events will have a twofold effect as it will increase the amount of localised flooding thus increasing the likelihood of infrastructure damage and it will increase the dilution of pond water. Disease is a constant threat in shrimp production, with viral diseases and MPP the main problems. Studies have shown that two viruses, White Spot Syndrome Virus WSSV and Monodon Baculovirus (MBV) were found in wild shrimp (Hao et al. 1999). WSSV was found at harvest in most samples from farms especially in ones collected during the rainy season. Mass mortality was associated with presence of WSSV at high prevalence and intensity. (Preston and Clayton 2008). 157 P a g e

45 Early April 2011 saw large scale baby shrimp mortality across the Delta. Tra Vinh lost 85 million of the 812 million larvae stocked with an estimated loss of 4.2 billion VND. Soc Trang lost 2,000 ha of the estimated 16,000 that were stocked. Bac Lieu lost 1090 ha of 10,000 ha stocked. All methods of shrimp farming were affected; extensive, intensive and semi intensive (Vietnam News April 23, 2011). Deaths were blamed on high diurnal temperature differences and/or unseasonable heavy rainfall events, both of which may increase in frequency in future climate scenarios. As disease treatment is not effective, the current focus of disease control is prevention which focuses on maintaining seed quality; shrimp feed concentrate quality and water quality. A disease monitoring system has been in operation over last two years. Disease management involves rapid reporting of problems with salinity levels and disease incidence. Growing mangroves intermingled with ponds was found to reduce the occurrence of diseases. An economic study of potential impacts of climate change on shrimp farming was carried out by The World Bank, Figure 110. The model indicates that the cost of water pumping in semiintensive/intensive systems will increase significantly. The total cost of adaptation is estimated at an average of $130 million per year from , which is equivalent to 2.4 percent of total costs. Water exchange in extensive systems is usually driven by tidal exchange rather than pumping of water thus reducing the expected increase in costs for this system. The direct impact of climate change on net income from both extensive and (semi-) intensive shrimp farming is projected to be negative, more strongly so for extensive farming. Without adaptation, the net income from (semi-) intensive shrimp production may fall by 130 million VND per ha in This reduction may increase to 950 million VND/ha in Again, adaptation to climate change is critical for the future success of the industry. Since the industry is both capital intensive and growing rapidly, adaptation costs are likely to be borne by operators (World Bank 2010). Figure Modelled reduction in net income from shrimp production due to climate change, World Bank (2010) Effects on Irrigation Systems In the past, flood water maintained in back swamp areas supplemented freshwater flow in the main canals during the early dry season. For the last three decades, the development of canal systems and the expansion and intensification of the rice culture have reduced the flood-plain water storage, particularly in the Plain of Reeds and the Long Xuyen Quadrangle, while increasing the abstraction of the discharge in the upstream areas. The results of modelling work by ACIAR (Nhan et al. 2007) to estimate the irrigation requirements of the different rice crops are shown in Figure 111. The high evaporation rate in the dry season means that nearly all of the water required must be supplied from the canal system. In another modelling study, IMHEN used the IQQM model (Integrated Quantity and Quality Model) to predict the water use of 158 P a g e

46 agriculture in the Mekong Delta. The results for the region of the Delta that is west of the Hau River are shown in Figure 18. Modelled monthly flow in the Hau River for the driest three months of dry years for the A2 climate change scenario are also shown. The figure shows that projected demand approaches the value of the entire flows of the Hau River, which is far more than the volume that flows through the western Delta canals. The climate models predict that future increases in demand will be offset by increased flows. Figure Current and projected monthly water use and projected average flow for the Hau River in the 3 driest months, data from Nhan et al. (2007) and IMHEN (2010). In another study, calculations of irrigation water requirement for the whole Mekong Delta were Gl per month in the period, with a projected increase demand of Gl per month by 2010 (Nhan et al. 2009). Table 55 - Estimated water requirements and water productivity of rice production in the Mekong Delta (kilograms of rice for every m3 of water input) Parameters Dry Season Wet Season 2nd Wet Season Total water requirements (m 3 ha -1 ) Rain water available (m 3 ha -1 ) Irrigation requirements (m 3 ha -1 ) Average yields of rice (t ha -1 ) Water productivity kg m -3 water Source: Based on average rainfall and cropping season data collected in 2003 and 2004 from Can Tho and Vinh Long. (From Nhan et al. 2009) For aquaculture, semi-intensive and intensive farming systems consume a large volume of water through water exchange in order to dilute metabolites within ponds or cages. Consequently, the farming practices discharge a large quantity of effluents, which might result in algal blooms in surface water bodies in surrounding and downstream areas, in turn constraining fish culture, domestic water supplies and environment protection (Nhan et al. 2009). The projected intensive water demands in the upper and mid Delta have implications for dry season water availability and related salinity intrusion in the coastal zone. A clear trade-off occurs between the expansion of dry season rice production upstream and downstream impacts of salinity Industry and Energy Vulnerability As previously mentioned, Kien Giang and Ca Mau are essentially rural, with agriculture being the dominant industry. Primary production accounts for 41% of GDP in Kien Giang and agriculture, aquaculture, fisheries and forestry are the largest primary sectors. 159 P a g e

47 Over the last 25 years, the economies of Ca Mau and Kien Giang have changed dramatically, with the rapid increase in industrial production and a rapid uptake of new economic activities such as commercial aquaculture and seafood production, primarily due the Government s economic restructuring initiatives in the area. Industry, construction and service sectors have grown very quickly and together now account for 59% of GDP in the study area. However much of the industry is either involved in processing primary products such as rice, aquatic products, and sugar or provides agricultural support services such as fertiliser production and machinery servicing. The rapid expansion of the industrial sector in the Kien Giang and Ca Mau has been due to growth in infrastructure, mining, oil production, construction and opening of trade policies. Today, in coastal economies of Ca Mau and Kien Giang s multi-sectoral activities are strongly interwoven with the backward and forward linkages in numerous value chains, and the economies of both provinces encompass a range of maritime and terrestrial industries, including the following main sectors: Agriculture (rice); Fisheries (catch and aquaculture); Sea transport and deep-sea ports; Natural gas exploitation and power generation; and Tourism. As highlighted in the previous section, agriculture (including aquaculture, fisheries and associated primary industry), are among the most climate-sensitive of all sectors, and climate change will have flow on effect and secondary impact on primary industry in the study area. For the purposes of this study industry and energy vulnerability refers to the vulnerability of industrial and energy infrastructure and services to the effects of climate change, and recognises that industry and energy generation are important drivers for the economic development, growth and sectoral transition in the delta necessary to build resilience and adaptive capacity into the future. In this context, industry and energy infrastructure and services are considered to be vulnerable if there is a high probability of loss or damage from climate change from which there is a high probability of it not recovering quickly or fully because the effects are either irreversible or the opportunities of recouping the losses are negligible. This study measured industry and energy vulnerability by combining data and information from the district and sectoral surveys as shown in Table 56 and Table 57. The indicators covered aspects of: human assets (% of population working in Industry, households reliant on industry); natural assets (diversity of industrial development, power generation capacity); economic (sectoral productivity Average Annual GDP per household contribution from Industry); and financial capital (investment levels, household connections, levels of service etc.). Measures of exposure to climate change impacts can be estimated using the application of GIS to map the projected length of energy infrastructure of each district that is impacted by each hazard. This mapping can be carried out for each time period and climate scenario. However, estimates of the level of measures that are in place to protect existing infrastructure are also required. Accordingly expert opinion was incorporated into the vulnerability rating as a weighting factor for each time slice; baseline, 2030 and Knowledge of the nature, location and extent of industrial zones, energy generation and power transmission infrastructure was cross correlated with maps and data from the government agencies and GIS database. The hazard maps from the modelling exercises were used to assess the risk to industry and energy due to saline intrusion as a result of SLR, flooding and inundation, and inundation from storm surge. 160 P a g e

48 Table 56 - Comparative overview of status of major industry and energy Infrastructure in Ca Mau. District % Population Working in Industry Energy & Industry Vulnerability Baseline Indicators GDP per % off-farm Number of Household Income Factories contributed by Industry Number of Different Industries Ca Mau ,529,938 94% 1,439 2 Cai Nuoc ,660 11% 14 1 Dam Doi ,111 11% 1 3 Nam Can ,584 3% 2 2 Ngoc Hien ,971 11% 0 2 Phu Tan ,572,365 45% Thoi Binh ,358 34% 0 2 Tran Van Thoi , % 1 3 U Minh ,289 11% 2 3 Table 57 - Comparative overview of status of major industry and energy Infrastructure in Kien Giang. District % Population Working in Industry Energy & Industry Vulnerability Baseline Indicators GDP per % off-farm Number of Household Income Factories contributed by Industry Number of Different Industries Rach Gia , % 1,000 4 Ha Tien ,617,841 78% 1 4 An Bien ,590,969 72% 1 4 An Minh ,368,219 28% 10 4 Chau Thanh ,849,385 70% 6 5 Giang Thanh ,500 15% 0 2 Giong Rieng ,322,965 0% 1 2 Go Quao ,077,822 0% 10 3 Hon Dat ,497,001 30% Kien Hai ,660 0% 0 4 Kien Luong ,455,398 50% 10 5 Phu Quoc ,845,897 83% Tan Hiep ,741,494 35% 0 4 U Minh Thuong % 0 3 Vinh Thuan % 0 4 An overview of the exposure to hazards and the status of control measures to protect industry and energy infrastructure is shown in Table 58and Table 59. The Tables provide a comparative overview of status of major industry and energy infrastructure in Kien Giang and Ca Mau, in terms of the levels of exposure and controls in place. The level of control for flooding and inundation for 14 out of 24 districts was assessed as inadequate, and improvements were desirable in view of economic development (medium term). Upgrading of flood control facilities are needed in Ca Mau, U Minh, Rah Gia, Chau Thanh, Kien Luong, Phu Tan, Tran Van Thoi, Ha Tien, An Minh, Hon Dat, and An Bien districts. Similarly, with regard to exposure to storm surge, upgrading of coastal protection structures are needed in Ngoc Hien, Tran Van Thoi, Ha Tien, Kien Hai, Kien Luong and Phu Quoc. In addition to this that whilst salinity is a widespread problem in the study area, it was assessed that for the industry and energy sectors that the current levels of control were adequate, now and in the near future (around 10 years), but adaptation would be needed in view of climate change (long term). A summary of the vulnerability of specific industry assets is shown in Appendix 2 while the vulnerability of specific energy assets is shown in Appendix P a g e

49 Table 58 - Overview of exposure to climate change impacts and comparative status of control measures for major industry infrastructure. Ca Mau Province Kien Giang Province Exposure to Salinity (%) Control Exposure to Storm Surge (%) Control Exposure to Flood (%) Control Measures Measures District Current Measures Current Current Ca Mau 19% 52% 71% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% Cai Nuoc 47% 70% 82% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% Dam Doi 13% 28% 36% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 1% Nam Can 36% 47% 58% 100% 100% 100% 1% 5% 10% Ngoc Hien 22% 29% 39% 100% 100% 100% 60% 90% 100% Phu Tan 36% 46% 62% 100% 100% 100% 1% 1% 2% Thoi Binh 6% 19% 35% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% Tran Van Thoi 42% 58% 79% 100% 100% 100% 1% 1% 1% U Minh 9% 22% 42% 100% 100% 100% 0% 1% 1% Rach Gia 70% 75% 81% 95% 100% 100% 1% 2% 2% Ha Tien 64% 67% 70% 100% 100% 100% 6% 10% 13% An Bien 38% 69% 81% 90% 100% 100% 1% 1% 2% An Minh 9% 39% 64% 99% 100% 100% 1% 1% 1% Chau Thanh 72% 82% 87% 100% 100% 100% 0% 1% 1% Giang Thanh 98% 98% 99% 90% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% Giong Rieng 83% 89% 94% 25% 20% 20% 0% 0% 0% Go Quao 61% 86% 92% 70% 80% 85% 0% 0% 0% Hon Dat 96% 97% 98% 50% 20% 20% 0% 1% 1% Kien Hai 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 12% 15% 18% Kien Luong 89% 89% 91% 100% 75% 70% 1% 2% 2% Phu Quoc 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% Tan Hiep 91% 92% 98% 60% 20% 20% 0% 0% 0% U Minh Thuong 17% 34% 52% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% Vinh Thuan 14% 45% 68% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% Improvements are desirable Rehabilitation or Adequate, now and in the near Adequate, but adaptation needed in in view of economic upgrading urgently future (around 10 years) view of climate change (long term) development (medium term) needed 162 P a g e

50 Table 59 - Overview of exposure to climate change impacts and comparative status of control measures for major energy infrastructure. Ca Mau Province Kien Giang Province Exposure to Flood (%) Control Exposure to Salinity (%) Control Exposure to Storm Surge (%) Control District Current Measures Current Measures Current Measures Ca Mau 19% 52% 71% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% Cai Nuoc 47% 70% 82% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% Dam Doi 13% 28% 36% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 1% Nam Can 36% 47% 58% 100% 100% 100% 1% 5% 10% Ngoc Hien 22% 29% 39% 100% 100% 100% 60% 90% 100% Phu Tan 36% 46% 62% 100% 100% 100% 1% 1% 2% Thoi Binh 6% 19% 35% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% Tran Van Thoi 42% 58% 79% 100% 100% 100% 1% 1% 1% U Minh 9% 22% 42% 100% 100% 100% 0% 1% 1% Rach Gia 70% 75% 81% 95% 100% 100% 1% 2% 2% Ha Tien 64% 67% 70% 100% 100% 100% 6% 10% 13% An Bien 38% 69% 81% 90% 100% 100% 1% 1% 2% An Minh 9% 39% 64% 99% 100% 100% 1% 1% 1% Chau Thanh 72% 82% 87% 100% 100% 100% 0% 1% 1% Giang Thanh 98% 98% 99% 90% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% Giong Rieng 83% 89% 94% 25% 20% 20% 0% 0% 0% Go Quao 61% 86% 92% 70% 80% 85% 0% 0% 0% Hon Dat 96% 97% 98% 50% 20% 20% 0% 1% 1% Kien Hai 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 12% 15% 18% Kien Luong 89% 89% 91% 100% 75% 70% 1% 2% 2% Phu Quoc 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% Tan Hiep 91% 92% 98% 60% 20% 20% 0% 0% 0% U Minh Thuong 17% 34% 52% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% Vinh Thuan 14% 45% 68% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% Improvements are desirable Rehabilitation or Adequate, now and in the near Adequate, but adaptation needed in in view of economic upgrading urgently future (around 10 years) view of climate change (long term) development (medium term) needed 163 P a g e

51 Figure 112 Energy and Industry vulnerability rankings for current and future climate change scenarios 164 P a g e

52 Vulnerability in the energy and industry sector was derived from the indicators shown in Table 56 and Table 57 together with knowledge of the nature, location and extent of industrial zones, energy generation and power transmission infrastructure. This allowed us to build district profiles that show the cross-sectoral interrelationships and gain an understanding how population growth and regional development will drive change in the composition and structure of the industry and energy sector in the study area over time. The district profile information is shown geographically in Figure 112. The Figure shows that in 2010, industry and energy vulnerability for all districts in both Kien Giang and Ca Mau was considered to be low to medium. However, this is expected to increase by 2030, and by 2050 the rating for six districts in Ca Mau (Ca Mau City, Tran Van Thoi, Phu Tan, Thoi Binh, Ngoc Hien and Dam Doi), and four districts in Kien Giang (Tan Hiep, An Minh, An Bien, Kien Luong, Giong Rieng, Chau Tanh, Hon Dat and Rach Gia city) are expected to increase to medium and high, primarily due to the exposure of surface water resources to sea level rise, and the combined effects of flooding, saline intrusion and storm surge. The most vulnerable districts are those with a large number of households that are highly dependent on local industry for employment or income, and are most exposed to SLR, flooding, inundation and extreme events and their effects on industrial areas, factories, and power generation and supply infrastructure and services. The coastal districts, whilst being adversely affected by salinity and storm surge were assessed as less vulnerable, primarily due to the higher level of control and or protection afforded by the sea dyke and sluice gate system. Extreme weather such as a typhoon could cause extensive damage to power systems, and as typhoons often occur at the end of the wet season (when physical access to transmission and distribution system assets is problematic) it could be some months before power supplies are fully restored. This in turn could have secondary implications for aquaculture and fisheries processing and all other forms of industry, in particular from whether the industry would need to shut down or it would need to run expensive diesel generators for weeks on end. Key industrial outputs such as ice would therefore be unavailable or far more costly to produce Effects on Secondary Industry As previously highlighted, processing of agricultural and seafood products make up the largest industrial sector in both provinces, and includes seafood processing and rice processing. All the seafood processing plants are located on water ways, and are typically located only 0.5 to 1.5 m above water level. Some plants are already experience flooding in spring tides in the wet season, are considered to be highly vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR) effects. Some industrial zones, which have a high enough density of existing factories, could almost certainly be cost-effectively protected. A good example of this promising potential for the defence of a whole industrial zone is the Tac Cau Port (near Rach Gia in Kien Giang Province) seafood processing area (recently designated as a formal industrial zone) where there are around 20 seafood processing plants in one cluster. Other clusters, such as the five fish meal plants next to each other in Binh Anh Commune near Tac Cau, are low lying (only about 0.8 to 1.5 m above water level), would be difficult to defend against any large sea level rise, and have a capital investment value of only around 2 months revenue, so these plants would probably be more cost-effective to relocate if there was significant sea level rise. In addition to this, many of the new industrial zones are also are very low, with elevations of around 0.5 to 1.5 m above water level. Inevitable these sites will either need to be raised or abandoned. A number of new industrial zones are being developed in very low lying areas, for example the new industrial zone near Ha Tien in Kien Giang province that is currently being developed in a swamp next to the main Ha Tien to Rach Gia canal. The lack of provision for future climate effects, and in particular to sea level rise, is not just confined to new industrial zones. The site of the proposed new $7 billion Kien Luong power plant complex is 165 P a g e

53 likewise to be located on an area of reclaimed land offshore from the mangrove sea boundary, and it would appear that no provision has been made for SLR at this stage Effects on Large Industry and Power Generation The Ca Mau gas-power-fertiliser-gas processing complex with its associated gas distribution centre and upcoming gas processing plant is the largest industrial complex in the study area. The plant is located in Ca Mau on the mainstream river. The plant is approximately 2.8 m above water level, and hence is not particularly at risk to sea level rise in its remaining 20 year life (which is also the life of the existing and upcoming Block B gas fields), and is defensible through the construction of flood protection structured. However, the existing power station cooling towers already use saline river water in the dry season, so sea level rise or decreased dry season rainfall leading to greater cooling tower salinity is expected to only lead to a minor increase in existing cooling tower corrosion rates. Increases in air temperatures will have a very minor impact in overall power plant efficiency, and will be partly balanced by improved cooling tower effectiveness and hence fan power loads from the expected reduced dry season humidity. In addition to this the gas pipelines may face corrosion, but this is not expected to be a major issue over their remaining 20 year design life. There are also are the large cement and the smaller brick making plants in Kien Giang province. It was assessed that neither of the industries were under threat. Individual plants may experience some production loss due to localised flooding in the future as the intensity of extreme events increases Effects on the Power Transmission System The power transmission system in the study comprises of: the 500 kv very high voltage power line connection to the national grid; the 110 kv high voltage provincial distribution system; and the 240 V household distribution system. The 110 kv high voltage system uses steel towers that are mounted on concrete foundations that are 1.0 to 1.5 m above ground level and as a result are considered to be moderately vulnerable to climate change effects, including inundation, salinity, high winds and typhoons. At the district level 22/12.7 kv and 400/220V levels, all power lines use single concrete poles and pole mounted transformers, so they are not particularly vulnerable to flooding, inundation, and SLR although they may be slightly vulnerable to increased corrosion as a result of salinity Urban Settlements and Transport Vulnerability Urban settlements and transportation vulnerability refers to the vulnerability of urban settlements and transportation to the effects of climate change, and recognises the need to protect people and property, and the importance of the transport system to support and promote regional development and economic growth in the Mekong Delta. In this context, urban settlement and transportation infrastructure are considered to be vulnerable if there is a high probability of loss or damage from climate change from which there is a high probability of it not recovering quickly or fully because the effects are either irreversible or the opportunities of recouping the losses are negligible. This study measured urban settlement and transportation vulnerability by combining data and information from the district and sectoral surveys, as shown in Table 60 and Table 61. The indicators covered: human assets (% of urban population); natural assets (% urban area); economic (value of goods shipped); and financial capital (urban infrastructure and levels of service) together with the nature, location and extent of the transport network and infrastructure. 166 P a g e

54 Table 60 Ca Mau - Urban Settlement and Transport Vulnerability Baseline Indicators. Urban Settlements & Transport Vulnerability Baseline Indicators Urban Area % Urban Water Sewer/Septic Major Roads District (ha) Supply Tank (km) Ca Mau % 100% 70% Cai Nuoc % 96% 30% Dam Doi % 95% 45% Nam Can % 99% 99% Ngoc Hien N/A 6% 90% 40% 0.08 Phu Tan N/A 14% 100% 5% Thoi Binh % 95% 10% Tran Van Thoi % 89% 10% U Minh % 95% 50% Table 61 Kien Giang - Urban Settlement and Transport Vulnerability Baseline Indicators. Urban Settlements & Transport Vulnerability Baseline Indicators Urban Area % Urban Water Sewer/Septic Major Roads District (ha) Supply Tank (km) Rach Gia % 85% 70% Ha Tien % 100% 100% An Bien % 67% 24% An Minh % 38% 8% Chau Thanh % 99% 90% Giang Thanh % 10% 8% Giong Rieng % 32% 40% Go Quao % 30% 40% Hon Dat % 100% 40% Kien Hai % 5% 46% 0.00 Kien Luong % 40% 40% Phu Quoc % 65% 99% 0.00 Tan Hiep % 40% 40% U Minh Thuong % 80% 6% Vinh Thuan % 96% 87% Measures of exposure to climate change impacts can be estimated using the application of GIS to map the projected length of transport infrastructure of each district that is impacted by each hazard. This mapping can be carried out for each time period and climate scenario. However, estimates of the level of measures that are in place to protect existing urban infrastructure are also required. Accordingly expert opinion was incorporated into the vulnerability rating as a weighting factor for each time slice; baseline, 2030 and Table 62 and Table 63outline the exposure of each district to climate hazards and rate the status of control measures to protect the Urban and transport infrastructure respectively. 167 P a g e

55 Table 62 - Overview of exposure to climate change impacts and comparative status of control measures for urban infrastructure. Ca Mau Province Kien Giang Province Exposure to Flood (%) Control Exposure to Salinity (%) Control Exposure to Storm Surge (%) Control District Current Measures Current Measures Current Measures Ca Mau 19% 52% 71% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% Cai Nuoc 47% 70% 82% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% Dam Doi 13% 28% 36% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 1% Nam Can 36% 47% 58% 100% 100% 100% 1% 5% 10% Ngoc Hien 22% 29% 39% 100% 100% 100% 60% 90% 100% Phu Tan 36% 46% 62% 100% 100% 100% 1% 1% 2% Thoi Binh 6% 19% 35% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% Tran Van Thoi 42% 58% 79% 100% 100% 100% 1% 1% 1% U Minh 9% 22% 42% 100% 100% 100% 0% 1% 1% Rach Gia 70% 75% 81% 95% 100% 100% 1% 2% 2% Ha Tien 64% 67% 70% 100% 100% 100% 6% 10% 13% An Bien 38% 69% 81% 90% 100% 100% 1% 1% 2% An Minh 9% 39% 64% 99% 100% 100% 1% 1% 1% Chau Thanh 72% 82% 87% 100% 100% 100% 0% 1% 1% Giang Thanh 98% 98% 99% 90% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% Giong Rieng 83% 89% 94% 25% 20% 20% 0% 0% 0% Go Quao 61% 86% 92% 70% 80% 85% 0% 0% 0% Hon Dat 96% 97% 98% 50% 20% 20% 0% 1% 1% Kien Hai 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 12% 15% 18% Kien Luong 89% 89% 91% 100% 75% 70% 1% 2% 2% Phu Quoc 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% Tan Hiep 91% 92% 98% 60% 20% 20% 0% 0% 0% U Minh Thuong 17% 34% 52% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% Vinh Thuan 14% 45% 68% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% Improvements are desirable Rehabilitation or Adequate, now and in the near Adequate, but adaptation needed in in view of economic upgrading urgently future (around 10 years) view of climate change (long term) development (medium term) needed 168 P a g e

56 Table 63 - Overview of exposure to climate change impacts and comparative status of control measures for transport infrastructure. Ca Mau Province Kien Giang Province Exposure to Flood (%) Control Exposure to Salinity (%) Control Exposure to Storm Surge (%) Control District Current Measures Current Measures Current Measures Ca Mau 19% 52% 71% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% Cai Nuoc 47% 70% 82% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% Dam Doi 13% 28% 36% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 1% Nam Can 36% 47% 58% 100% 100% 100% 1% 5% 10% Ngoc Hien 22% 29% 39% 100% 100% 100% 60% 90% 100% Phu Tan 36% 46% 62% 100% 100% 100% 1% 1% 2% Thoi Binh 6% 19% 35% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% Tran Van Thoi 42% 58% 79% 100% 100% 100% 1% 1% 1% U Minh 9% 22% 42% 100% 100% 100% 0% 1% 1% Rach Gia 70% 75% 81% 95% 100% 100% 1% 2% 2% Ha Tien 64% 67% 70% 100% 100% 100% 6% 10% 13% An Bien 38% 69% 81% 90% 100% 100% 1% 1% 2% An Minh 9% 39% 64% 99% 100% 100% 1% 1% 1% Chau Thanh 72% 82% 87% 100% 100% 100% 0% 1% 1% Giang Thanh 98% 98% 99% 90% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% Giong Rieng 83% 89% 94% 25% 20% 20% 0% 0% 0% Go Quao 61% 86% 92% 70% 80% 85% 0% 0% 0% Hon Dat 96% 97% 98% 50% 20% 20% 0% 1% 1% Kien Hai 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 12% 15% 18% Kien Luong 89% 89% 91% 100% 75% 70% 1% 2% 2% Phu Quoc 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% Tan Hiep 91% 92% 98% 60% 20% 20% 0% 0% 0% U Minh Thuong 17% 34% 52% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% Vinh Thuan 14% 45% 68% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% Adequate, now and in the near Adequate, but adaptation needed in Improvements are desirable Rehabilitation or in view of economic upgrading urgently future (around 10 years) view of climate change (long term) development (medium term) needed 169 P a g e

57 Knowledge of the location urban areas and transport infrastructure was cross correlated with maps and data from the government agencies and GIS database. The hazard maps from the modelling exercises were used to assess the risk to urban areas and transport infrastructure due to saline intrusion as a result of SLR, flooding and inundation, and inundation from storm surge. An overview of the exposure to hazards and the status of control measures to protect urban areas are shown in Table 62and the status of control measures to protect transport infrastructure are shown in Table 63. The overall urban settlement and transportation vulnerability for all districts in Kien Giang and Ca Mau were assessed as being low to medium primarily because of the level of control, adaptation and resilience exhibited in all districts. However the coastal cities of Rach Gia and Ha Tien, the island districts and the poorly protected villages on Ngoc Hien all require improvements to the control measures that are currently in place. Further to this, it is expected that this situation will change by 2030, and by 2050 the rating for all mainland districts is expected to increase, primarily due to the increase in the level of exposure to flooding and inundation, and the heavy reliance on water based livelihood and agricultural systems. Using the indicators and measures provided above it is possible to estimate or rate the relative vulnerability of if all these indices at the district level. To do this the relative vulnerability of each district to climate change was ranked in relation to their comparative exposure, and then secondly by rating their respective sensitivity (low to very high) to current and future hazards projections generated from our hydrological modelling and coastal modelling work, and thirdly by applying weighting factor that incorporates the extent of existing control measures. The overall vulnerability for urban settlements and transportation Kien Giang and Ca Mau province was assessed as a function of the above key indicators and the existing and projected climate exposure and hazard for sea level rise, inundation and salinity. The assessment is based on the assumption that the current demonstrable vulnerability in the agricultural sector is the best available basis for assessing the future climatic risks for that sector. Figure 113 illustrates the current and future vulnerability ratings for 2030 and 2050 under A2 and B2 emission scenarios for Ca Mau and Kien Giang. The most vulnerable districts are those with high levels of urban infrastructure, buildings and urban households, which are highly exposed to flooding, inundation and storm surge. The coastal districts, whilst being adversely affected by salinity were assessed as less vulnerable, primarily dyke to the higher level of control and or protection afforded by the sea dyke and sluice gate system Effects on Urban Settlements and Households Whist this study has highlighted the strong vulnerability of rural populations in the study area to climate change, our assessment clearly shows that the cities of Rach Gia and Ca Mau, and the other large towns of Ha Tien and Kien Luong face major vulnerabilities themselves, with the potential to effect large numbers of people and households. Although urban areas are often assumed to be less vulnerable to impacts due to higher rates of development, there are number of satellite semi-urban areas in both Kien Giang with large populations of poor, often migrant or unregistered populations that work in the major urban centres (such as Tran Van Troi, Cai Nguoc and Chau Thanh, and who are just as vulnerable, if not more so, than rural farming populations outside of urban areas. Furthermore, in terms of overall numbers of affected peoples, the population density of urban areas means that while the overall percentage of affected people may be lower in urban than rural areas, the total affected numbers will likely be higher in urban areas. The built environment of cities can mean more exposure to climate hazards; especially the number of houses located in areas with poor drainage that are subject to flooding on a regular basis. In both Rach Gia and to a lesser extent in Ca Mau, a great deal of building has taken place on what used to be wetlands. This affects the ability of surrounding lands to drain, particularly below 1 meter. 170 P a g e

58 Figure 113 Urban Settlements and Transport vulnerability rankings for current and future climate change scenario. 171 P a g e

59 The built environment of cities can mean more exposure to climate hazards; especially the number of houses located in areas with poor drainage that are subject to flooding on a regular basis. In both Rach Gia and to a lesser extent in Ca Mau, a great deal of building has taken place on what used to be wetlands. This affects the ability of surrounding lands to drain, particularly below 1 meter. In Rach Gia City a SLR of just 30 cm in 2050 could lead to a flooding of up to 76 % of the land area, with the potential to affect more than 50,000 households. The situation in Ca Mau whilst not as severe is still concerning with up to 67% of the city land area potentially being inundated and 40,000 households effected Effects on Buildings Whilst the predominant effect of climate change on urban areas in Kien Giang and Ca Mau will be on building structures by storm events other factors affecting buildings are; coastal erosion, local flooding and inundation, storm surge flooding, sea level rise and wind damage associated with typhoons. Building materials are also affected by increased corrosion as a result of increased temperatures and humidity and structural fatigue resulting from the intensity of storm events, both of these impacts lead to reduced asset life. Any such alterations to asset life will increase maintenance requirements and renewal of assets. Residential buildings located along canals are especially prone to flooding and storm damage due to their exposed location. Currently, the majority of buildings in Ca Mau and Kien Giang are not designed to withstand high intensity typhoons or cyclones. This together with the lack of cyclone shelters, and the fact that most other urban facilities such as the airport terminals, ferry terminals, ports and harbour facilities not being cyclone rated is an area of primary concern Effects on Urban Drainage Given the shallow gradients and the low-lying terrain just above normal tidal/river levels, designing an effective drainage system for such urban areas is extremely complex. The problem may have been compounded by limited topographical information at the time of construction meaning that actual drain placing may not always have been ideal. In addition to struggling to satisfy minimum slopes the system also needed to be designed with smooth falls to avoid drops in velocity to enable sediment to be carried through the system. These difficulties are further compounded in practice by drain blockages of rubbish and other obstructions. In the smaller urban areas with less complex drainage systems these obstacles are usually flushed out during heavy rainfall. In the larger areas, especially Ca Mau City, uncontrolled dumping of solid waste is a major concern (despite the presence of a formal collection service) and remains a potential health hazard. Generally, there is also little maintenance of drains, whether through regular cleaning or replacing broken covers. The projected increase in the intensity of extreme rainfall events is most likely to be felt in the urban sector as urban drainage systems have trouble coping with the current level of high rainfall event. Very large multiday events with long return periods (i.e. 1 in 100 yr floods) will overwhelm the current drainage system especially with the compromised flow volumes due to rubbish. Extensive localised flooding in urban areas will also have a knock on effect on the waste management and water supply systems Effects on Urban Solid Waste Management Only one urban area (Ha Tien City) in the two Provinces has a controlled solid waste dump site. In all other areas waste is dumped in officially recognised or informal/ temporary sites. At the moment volumes involved are quite low but there are still serious and growing issues of objectionable odours, fly-breeding, dust, fire or harbourage of vectors (such as rats). There is also no provision for dealing 172 P a g e

60 with leachate at these sites which may also leak onto nearby roads from rubbish disposal trucks. A typical standard for restricting habitable buildings in the vicinity of controlled landfill sites is one kilometre Effects on Urban Water Supply The freshwater resources in both Kien Giang and Ca Mau are particularly sensitive as major cities and larger urban settlements are almost entirely reliant on surface water resources. The presence of large, well-run water companies (CMWSSUW and KGWSS) in both provinces service the majority of the urban households. Over the last 5-10 years there has been a significant move away from individual or small scale groundwater wells for drinking water to treated domestic water treatment plants from which the quality of water can be assured. The vast majority of households in the main urban centres now obtain their water from these two companies. The combination of increased temperatures, decreased surface flows are likely to cause water shortages into the future. These issues may be compounded by sea level rise (inducing saline intrusion). During low river discharge the increase of salinity intrusion in coastal areas is making existing water supply sources as well as agriculture vulnerable in both provinces. These direct and indirect effects of climate change are likely to have consequences both on water quality and quantity. The consequences could directly impact on public health, but also indirectly on other parts of the delta system. For instance, inadequate infrastructure for piped water supply could influence the ability of small scale ice factories supplying the agricultural and seafood processing plants in both provinces Effects on Transport As previously discussed, the road transport system in Kien Gian and Ca Mau are not well developed, with both provinces relying heavily on waterway transportation of goods and people by canal and sea. The canal and sea transport has historically been the prime factor for economic development, and is currently considered to be the major transportation corridor for shipping goods to national and international markets, as well as supplying goods to the interior rural areas within both provinces now and into the future. Therefore, ports and navigation channels have been well developed in the delta at the expense of road infrastructure. Currently Kien Giang and Ca Mau are services by main highway connections to Can Tho and Ho Chi Minh. The provincial and rural road networks are not very well developed, however it is expanding rapidly. In much of Ca Mau and parts of Kien Giang the road network consists of narrow usually sealed roads which follow the routes of inland waterways. They are mostly used by motorbikes and the occasional car and light truck, the narrow and weight limited bridges being constraints for heavy vehicles. The two travel necessities for a rural family are a motorbike and a long tailed boat. In Ca Mau current flooding problems tend to be short-term as mentioned above, but of increasing frequency and intensity. This does not currently pose a constraint to transportation systems. In Kien Giang, however, flooding from the Mekong can affect coastal areas for several months up to a metre in height. The September 2000 floods provided recent evidence of the impact of such an event. At such times inland waterways are key replacement options for any flooded District roads, the more strategic roads being located at higher elevations and also often more inland. Roads are predominantly affected by the ongoing impacts from increased rainfall, increased temperatures and increased ground movement which cause the road pavement and surface to deteriorate. The road surface is especially vulnerable to erosion from large storm surge events and typhoons. However, it is expected that the most damage to road assets will result as a result of the increase flooding and inundation with sea level rise. Any significant damage to road assets will hinder access to transportation nodes and hubs, and between urban settlements. 173 P a g e

61 Effects on Ports & Harbours Port facilities are predominantly vulnerable to increases in extreme events such as cyclones and storm surges. Some of the port facilities such as piers, barges, boats and sea wall protection are particularly vulnerable to wave and wind damage associated with storm events. Increased air temperature, sea surface temperature and humidity will accelerate the degradation of port assets through increased corrosion. Port assets will also suffer from increased fatigued structures due to increased storm intensity. This will further reduce asset lives and increase potential failure during extreme storm events. Sea level rise changes the corrosive zones on assets exposing components of the assets to corrosion which were not designed for this level of corrosive impact. Sea level rise also prevents existing port facilities from functioning effectively as it reduces their freeboard making them more vulnerable to overtopping from waves and storm surges. The loss of key port facilities such as pier structures, barges and ferry boats will inhibit access to the Islands. This may hinder shipping freight supplies arriving at the island resulting in significant social and economic implications for the island. 174 P a g e

62 7.2 Risks In general, the projected changes in climate for Kien Giang and Ca Mau will lead to a range of physical impacts that will potentially threaten the population and people, including the impacts on livelihood and agricultural systems; urban and rural settlements; and industrial, energy and transport infrastructure. These impacts will make the people and communities vulnerable to climate change across all sectors as outlined above. However, the vulnerability assessment does not take into account the level of risk that is associated with each potential impact. Risk can be assessed by sector and at a finer scale risk can be assessed for each district. The extent of the risks posed by the modelled projected climate change impacts on each sector are described in Table 64 below. Table 64 - Risks posed to each district from the three climate change impacts for baseline, 2030 and Inundation Salinity Storm Surge District Ca Mau Cai Nuoc Dam Doi Nam Can Ngoc Hien Phu Tan Thoi Binh Tran Van Thoi U Minh Rach Gia Ha Tien An Bien An Minh Chau Thanh Giang Thanh Giong Rieng Go Quao Hon Dat Kien Hai Kien Luong Phu Quoc Tan Hiep U Minh Thuong Vinh Thuan > Extreme; require urgent attention. High; requiring attention in the near term Medium; existing controls sufficient in the short term, will require attention in the medium term. <5 Low; existing controls will be sufficient. The island districts of Phu Quoc and Kien Giang have little risk from inundation or salinity. While five districts in Ca Mau and two mainland district in Kien Giang are currently at low risk from inundation, all mainland districts are projected to be at moderate risk from inundation by All mainland districts are currently at moderate risk from salinity and are projected to remain at moderate risk out to Ngoc Hien and Kien Hai are currently at moderate risk from storm surge but are projected to remain at moderate risk out to Nam Can and Ha Tien are projected to be at moderate risk from storm surge by P a g e

63 7.2.1 Population; Hotspots Figure 114and Figure 115 show the vulnerability profiles of the districts that registered high vulnerability ratings (>18) in the poverty sector. Figure Vulnerability profiles of districts in Ca Mau with a high vulnerability in the population sector. The most vulnerable districts in Ca Mau with regard to population are Ca Mau city and Tran Van Thoi. Ca Mau: has high existing population density which combined with a high in migration rate results in high vulnerability for this sector. However, the low number of rural households keeps the present vulnerability low, but exposure and sensitivity to inundation will increase into the future, and is likely to be significant by The high population, the large area of the urban area and the concentration of transport hubs increases vulnerability in this sector. In all sectors except poverty, vulnerability increases in the future due to population growth and inward migration which emphasizes the current susceptibility to impacts. Tran Van Thoi: With high population and inward migration is a coastal town subject to storm surge and with 46% of the areas currently subject to inundation the initial high exposure increases to 80% in the future, as inundation and storm surge affect larger areas. Combine this with a lower average income, more poor households and less access to health than the other urbanised districts results in a high exposure and sensitivity. Figure Vulnerability profiles of districts in Kien Giang with a high vulnerability in the population sector, Rach Gia and Chau Thanh. 176 P a g e

64 The most vulnerable districts in Kien Giang with regard to population are Rach Gia city and Chau Thanh. Rach Gia: was assessed as being highly vulnerable due to an existing high population, and high population density combined with a high rate of inward migration. This is compounded by a high level of exposure to flooding, inundation, salinity and storm surge, and results in high vulnerability. Chau Thanh: has a large rural population, high population density and high growth rate combine, and is already highly exposed to flooding, inundation, salinity and storm surge and this will increase in the future as a greater area is subject to impacts. High numbers of poor and ethnic households, a low income and limited availability of agricultural land lead to high vulnerability that increases in the future as population increases and a greater area is subject to impacts especially up to Poverty; Hotspots Figure 116 shows the vulnerability profiles of the districts that registered high vulnerability ratings (>18) in the poverty sector. Figure Vulnerability Profiles for districts with high vulnerability in the poverty sector; In Ca Mau - Dam Doi and Ngoc Hien, and in Kien Giang - Chau Thanh. The most vulnerable districts in Ca Mau with regard to poverty are Dam Doi and Ngoc Hien. Dam Doi: A high number of poor household is only slightly ameliorated by a moderate access to health and education. Low population growth reduces the effect of increases in inundation by Ngoc Hien: A very low income and high number of poor household and limited access to health and education lead to increasing vulnerability as exposure to inundation and storm surge increases. The very high population growth increases the effect. In Kien Giang the most vulnerable district from a poverty perspective was assessed as Chau Thanh Chau Thanh: High numbers of poor and ethnic households, a low income and limited availability of agricultural land lead to high vulnerability that increases in the future as population increases and a greater area is subject to impacts especially up to P a g e

65 7.2.3 Agriculture and Livelihoods; Hotspots Figure 117 shows the vulnerability profiles of the districts in Ca Mau that registered high vulnerability ratings (>18) in the agriculture and livelihood sector. Figure Vulnerablity Profiles for districs in Ca Mau with high vulnerability in the agriculture and livelihood sector; U Minh, Dam Doi, and Tran Van Thoi. The most vulnerable districts in Ca Mau are U Minh, Dam Doi and Tran Van Thoi. U Minh: A high rural population with low incomes is offset by a high number of possible income sources and available land. Exposure to inundation salinity and storm surge leads to high vulnerability in the future. Dam Doi: A high number of income streams reduce the current vulnerability, but the high population decreases the availability of land for primary production thus increasing vulnerability. Tran Van Thoi: A high number of rural households and a moderate income increase vulnerability as the area impacted by inundation increases to 80% in the future. Eight districts in Kien Giang registered high vulnerability ratings (>18) in the agriculture and livelihood sector. Figure 118 shows the vulnerability profiles of six of the districts, while the vulnerability profiles of two further districts, Chau Thanh and Rach Gia were shown in Figure 115 on page P a g e

66 Figure 118- Vulnerablity Profiles for six districs in Kien Giang with high vulnerability in the agriculture and livelihood sector; Hon Dat; Kien Luong; Giong Rieng; Go Quao; An Bien; and An Minh. In Kien Giang the most vulnerable districts from an agricultural and livelihood perspective were assessed as: Hon Dat; Chau Thanh; Kien Luong; Giong Rieng; Go Quao; An Bien; An Minh and Rach Gia. All of these districts, with the exception of Rach Gia, are highly dependent on water-reliant farming systems and are highly exposed to river based flooding and inundation. Hon Dat: Low population density and good access to agricultural land leads to low initial vulnerability. A high growth rate of the mostly rural population and an increase in exposure to inundation and storm surge increases vulnerability in the future. Chau Thanh: High vulnerability due to a high rural population and low annual income is ameliorated by a high number of other income streams. However vulnerability increases in the future as a greater area of agricultural land is subject to impacts. Giong Rieng: A very large rural population and low annual income is exposed to inundation and salinity leading to high vulnerability as both population and the area exposed to inundation increase Go Quao: A high reliance on agriculture is ameliorated by moderate GDP and household access to land. Vulnerability increases in the future due to a gradual increase in the area affected by inundation and salinity. An Bien: A high rural population with low incomes is offset by available land per head of population. Exposure to all three hazards leads to high vulnerability in the future. An Minh: A high rural population with low incomes is offset by good availability of land per head of population. Rach Gia: A low number of rural households keep the present vulnerability low, but increasing exposure to inundation and saline intrusion increases vulnerability in the future. 179 P a g e

67 7.2.4 Industry and Energy Impacts, Hotspots Figure 119 shows the districts in Ca Mau that registered high vulnerability ratings (>18) in the industry and energy sector. Figure Vulnerablity Profiles for districs in Ca Mau with high vulnerability in the industry and energy sector; Dam Doi, Tran Van Thoi and Ca Mau. Dam Doi: While industry has a low contribution to the district economy the high population means that a large number of households are reliant on a few industries Combined with a poor electrical connection rate but a large amount of electrical infrastructure potentially effected by inundation, salinity and storm surge this vulnerability increases in the future. Tran Van Thoi: A large contribution to GDP from industry and a lot of energy infrastructure leads to high vulnerability which increases with inundation and storm surge. Ca Mau: The aggregation of industry and electricity infrastructure in the city and the reliance of house hold incomes on industry mean that Ca Mau city is vulnerable in this sector, especially to extreme events. The extent increases in the future particularly due to flooding. Figure 120 shows the districts in Kien Giang that registered high vulnerability ratings (>18) in the industry and energy sector. The most vulnerable districts in Ca Mau are: Figure Vulnerablity Profiles for districs in Kien Giang with high vulnerability in the industry and energy sector; Chau Thanh, Hon Dat and Rach Gia, (note the different scale for Rach Gia. Chau Thanh: A high contribution to GDP from industry and the presence of energy infrastructure leads to a high vulnerability. Vulnerability increases in the future as a greater area is subject to impacts. 180 P a g e

68 Hon Dat: The large population means that a large number of households are reliant on industry which increases vulnerability in the future as population and exposure of the extensive power infrastructure increases. Rach Gia: The aggregation of industry and electricity infrastructure in the city and the reliance of house hold incomes on industry mean that Rach Gia city is vulnerable. The combined effect of the three impacts increases the vulnerability over time Urban Settlements and Transport; Hotspots Figure 121shows the districts in Ca Mau that registered high vulnerability ratings (>18) in the urban settlements and transport sector. Figure 121- Vulnerablity Profiles for districs in Ca Mau with high vulnerability in the urban settlements and transport sector; Ca Mau, Cai Nuoc and Tran Van Thoi. The most vulnerable districts in Ca Mau are: Ca Mau: The High population, the large proportion of urban area and the concentration of transport hubs increases vulnerability in this sector. Cai Nuoc: A moderate urban population and poor sewage connections leads to high vulnerability that increases with extensive flooding in the future. Tran Van Thoi: A high urban population in two towns, one of which is on the coast, leads to high vulnerability. Limited amount of infrastructure and current protection of the urban centre from inundation and storm surge means that while vulnerability is now low it will increases as inundation and storm surge affect larger areas and protection measures become unable to cope. Four districts in Kien Giang registered high vulnerability ratings (>18) in the urban settlements and transport sector. Figure 122 shows the vulnerability profiles of three of the districts, the vulnerability profile of Rach Gia was shown in Figure 120 on page P a g e

69 Figure 122- Vulnerablity Profiles for districs in Ca Mau with high vulnerability in the urban settlements and transport sector; Kien Giang, Chau Thanh, Kien Luong and Ha Tien. In Kien Giang the most vulnerable districts in terms of urban settlements and transportation were assessed as being: Rach Gia: where the high population, combined with relatively the large concentration of urban and transportation infrastructure makes it both highly exposed and sensitive to a range of climate change impacts, especially flooding and inundation. Chau Thanh: Despite a relatively small urban area, the large densely settled population and the presence of transport infrastructure increases vulnerability in this sector. In all sectors, vulnerability increases in the future due to high population growth which emphasises the current susceptibility to all three impacts. Kien Luong: Moderate urbanisation and poor access to water and sanitation leads to increased vulnerability in the future. Ha Tien: The high level urbanisation makes the district highly vulnerable. The urban area is increasingly exposed to all three impacts in the future Summary of District and Sectoral Hotspots Comparison of the rankings for the different districts clearly shows that current overall vulnerability to climate change for the majority of districts is low to medium. However, into the future many districts were assessed as being medium to high. Table 65 highlights the most vulnerable districts hotspots in 2050 for each sector. While Table 66 outlines the climate change impacts that pose the greatest risk to the identified hotspots. It should be noted that the vulnerability ratings for all the mainland districts would have been much higher in the absence of the sea-dyke, flood control system and salinity sluice gates. The tables indicate that in Ca Mau province, Tran Van Thoi is at risk from flooding and salinity and is vulnerable across all sectors except poverty; while Ca Mau city is vulnerable to flooding and salinity in three sectors due to its large urban population reliant on urban services and industry. Flooding and salinity pose a risk to Dam Doi in the agricultural and industry sectors due to its reliance on aquaculture processing and to the urban settlements in Cai Nuoc. Ngoc Hien is vulnerable in the poverty sector and is at risk from salinity and storm surge. The high reliance of U Minh on rice makes it particularly vulnerable to salinity in the agricultural sector. In Rach Gia Province Chau Thanh district is vulnerable to flooding and salinity across all sectors and should be a priority area for adaptation measures. Rach Gia city is vulnerable to flooding and salinity across four sectors. Kien Luong is at risk from flooding and salinity in both; the agriculture and livelihood, and the urban settlements and transport sectors. In the agriculture and livelihood sector three other districts; Hon Dat, An Bien and Ha Tien are at risk from flooding and salinity, while Giong Rieng is at risk from flooding and An Minh is at risk from salinity. 182 P a g e

70 Table 65 Districts identified as sectoral vulnerability hotspots in Sector Ca Mau Province Population Poverty Agriculture & Livelihoods Industry & Energy Urban Settlements & Transport Ca Mau Ngoc Hien U Minh Dam Doi Cai Nuoc Tran Van Thoi Dam Doi Dam Doi Tran Van Thoi Tran Van Thoi Tran Van Thoi Ca Mau Ca Mau Kien Giang Province Rach Gia Chau Thanh Hon Dat Chau Thanh Chau Thanh Chau Thanh Rach Gia Hon Dat Kien Luong Chau Thanh Rach Gia Ha Tien Kien Luong Rach Gia Giong Rieng Go Quao An Bien An Minh Table 66 Major threats to identified hotspot districts, Red indicate major exposure with little control measures in place. Ca Mau Kien Giang District Threats District Threats Tran Van Thoi Ca Mau Dam Doi Cai Nuoc Ngoc Hien Flooding Salinity Flooding Salinity Flooding Salinity Flooding Salinity Storm Surge Salinity Chau Thanh Rach Gia Kien Luong Go Quao Hon Dat Flooding Salinity Flooding Salinity Flooding Salinity Flooding Salinity Flooding Salinity U Minh Salinity An Bien Flooding Salinity Ha Tien Giong Rieng An Minh Flooding Salinity Flooding Salinity 183 P a g e

71 7.3 Synthesis of Regional Vulnerabilities Comparing the relative sectoral vulnerabilities of the districts in the study area produces a broad picture regarding the problems and sustainability of the major socio-economic sectors in Kien Giang with climate change. It also identifies the ways in which sectoral vulnerability to climate change varies across the study area. The vulnerability rankings for each of the district are based on a standard set of indicators so that the vulnerability can be compared not only between districts, but also across sectors. A regional vulnerability was calculated for each time period as the average value of the five sectors. The geographical distribution of the regional vulnerability for baseline, 2030 and 2050 is shown in Figure 123. Figure 123 Regional vulnerability rankings for current and future climate change scenario 184 P a g e

72 Table 67 and Table 68 provide a summary overview of the main sectoral vulnerability ratings to climate change for Ca Mau and Kien Giang provinces. The table also presents the regional vulnerability for Table 67 - Ca Mau Vulnerability Ratings Summary Population Poverty Agriculture & Livelihoods Industry & Energy Settlements & Transport Overall Vulnerability District Ca Mau High Cai Nuoc Medium Dam Doi High Nam Can Low Ngoc Hien High Phu Tan Medium Thoi Binh Medium Tran Van Thoi High U Minh Medium Low Vulnerability Medium Vulnerability High Vulnerability Very High Vulnerability 185 P a g e

73 Table 68 - Kien Giang Vulnerability Ratings Summary Population Poverty Agriculture & Livelihoods Industry & Energy Settlements & Transport Overall Vulnerability District Rach Gia High Ha Tien Medium An Bien Medium An Minh Medium Chau Thanh High Giang Thanh Low Giong Rieng Medium Go Quao Low Hon Dat High Kien Hai Low Kien Luong Medium Phu Quoc Low Tan Hiep Medium U Minh Thuong Low Vinh Thuan Low Low Vulnerability Medium Vulnerability High Vulnerability Very High Vulnerability 186 P a g e

74 8. Institutional Capacity This chapter outlines the national and provincial future plans and projections for the priority sectors of the region. Future plans and projections are developed from national decrees that are issued by the central government. Provincial PPCs oversee departments that submit policies and plans based on the national decrees and on targets set by Ministries. District PPCs are also tasked with developing plans for their district. The national sector experts assessed the climate change capacity of government agencies through an examination of the provision of climate change adaptation both on the ground and in the provincial plans. Further insight into the planning capacity in urban, transport, industry and energy planning at the district level was captured through survey questions. The results of the survey questions With regards to, the. This section outlines the current institutional structure at the four levels of government, national, provincial, district and commune. Where available the extent of existing target programs and directives is outlined for each sector. Then the capacity to develop and incorporate comprehensive climate change adaptation options into planning is assessed at each level. 8.1 National Institutions In Vietnam at the national level, several ministries are involved in the management of the Mekong Delta, these being: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD): which is in charge of land tenure, land use and rural infrastructure development; Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE): which oversees international conventions and other development regulations and agreements (such as the Convention on Biological Diversity, Ramsar conventions etc.); and Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) in charge of preparation of National 5-years socioeconomic development plans as well as the overall national planning and coordination. A lot of physical, socioeconomic and ecological data is available in Vietnam, yet it is scattered at different Ministries and Institutions. Gaining access to data remains a difficult task and seems to depend on good networking and coincidence rather than active and institutionalised knowledge sharing. As a result coordination of research and climate change adaptation activities is very limited leading to less coherent approaches. The national institutions that are involved in the management of the different sectors are outlined below Agriculture and Natural Resource Management Organizations involved in natural resources management at the national level include; the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD), the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MoNRE), the Ministry of Science and Technology (MoST). As well as being responsible for fisheries, the Ministry of Fisheries (MoFI) is also involved in the management of mangroves. In the water resources management sector, the Department of Water Resource Management (DWRM) within MONRE was set up in 2003 to carry out state management of water resources. And the National Water Resources Council (NWRC) was set up to advise the government on integrated water resource 187 P a g e

75 issues. The NWRC has representatives from; MoNRE; MARD; Ministry of Fisheries (MoFI); MoST; Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI); Ministry of Finance (MoF); Ministry of National Defence (MoND); Ministry of Construction (MoC), Ministry of Transportation (MoT); Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT); and Ministry of Health. MARD is responsible for the management of water-related sectors such as agriculture, forestry, aquaculture, salt production, irrigation systems, rural water supply, dike management and disaster management. However, The Directorate of Water Resources, the Directorate of Fisheries and Aquaculture and the National Centre for Rural Water Supply and Environmental Sanitation are also involved in water resources management. The overview of the number of government bodies responsible for different parts of the agricultural and natural resource sectors illustrates one of the primary issues that inhibit effective management of these sectors. There is considerable overlap of responsibilities among government agencies and all of the ministries, in particular the most directly active ministries, MARD and MoNRE, lack both horizontal and vertical coordination and cooperation. This means that there is a lack of ability to develop coordinated strategies and policies. In addition, most ministries lack capacity to develop strong policy and secondary legislation. Other significant issues that hinder effective natural resource management include; Ineffective inspection and enforcement and conflict resolution activities. Low level of awareness, skills and technology for integrated natural resources management. Budgets for natural resources development and management are limited and have not met the demand of the sector. Data and information is still scatted, monitoring networks are insufficient and data quality is not high. Significant capacity development and strong mechanisms for enforcing coordination of effective policies and strategies across ministries and provincial departments is required to overcome these deficiencies. The Fisheries Information Centre (FICEN) is the division in charge of fisheries statistics and forecasting. A fisheries database D-Fish was set up with the assistance of DANIDA. However FICEN is in its early days in using D-Fish and there is an opportunity for further investment in training now. It is clear that investment in the division should be prioritized Infrastructure Planning Most strategic planning is undertaken at national levels by the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) through the National 5-years socio-economic development plans. The 'Draft Socio-Economic Development Strategy For The Period' (Prime Minister 2011) indicates a determination to rapidly develop urban areas and is heavily involved in promoting improvements and strategic additions to the existing road system. Transport specific planning is shared between national and provincial levels with national level roads and water transport routes that link provinces and large urban centres managed at the national level by the Ministry of Transport. A recent Multimodal Transport Regulatory Review by the Ministry of Transport examined the relative current position of all transport modes and made recommendations for the future (Ministry of Transport, 2006). The report appreciated the positive aspects of water transport, especially in the light of potential climate change impacts, in that "inland waterway transport appears to be less heavily constrained by infrastructure shortcomings in its ability to respond to the changing needs of freight customers. More so than with road transport, its intrinsic characteristics are suited to low-value, less time-sensitive, bulkier commodities". A key output was a recommendation to ensure that the funding and organisation for inland waterway operation and management was improved. The danger is that the 188 P a g e

76 balance between road and water transport changes dramatically so that new roads become congested with heavy loads and unmaintained waterways become too inefficient/less navigable to use. 8.2 National Plans and Projections The National Target Program Unfortunately, unlike most other countries in the region, Vietnam has not yet completed or submitted a national adaptation program of action (NAPA). However, the Government has developed a National Target Program (NTP) in order to respond to climate change (Decision No. 158/QD-TTg ). The goals of the NTP are as follows: Identify the extent of climate change on Vietnam and its expected impacts; Identify adaptation measures and policies; Promote scientific and technological activities related to climate change; Strengthen capacity building to respond to climate change Raise public awareness; Promote international cooperation; Mainstream climate change into socioeconomic development strategies and all levels of planning; and Develop specific climate change response action plans and pilot projects (Nguyen Mong Cuong 2009) The NTP Planning Process The NTP planning process is in many ways similar to a NAPA process, although it is not as focused on adaptation options as it might be. Specific adaptation options mentioned in NTP documentation indicate that the government intends to focus on: New technologies in agriculture; New planning for river basins and water management; Integrated coastal zone management plans; Infrastructure adapted to sea level rises; Storm early warning systems; Research on the function of ecosystems like mangroves; and Sea dike reinforcement Guidelines have been provided to provinces and cities to assist them to develop their own action plans. Unfortunately, the adaptation plans for both provinces have not been completed, and the planning instruments available, such as the socio-economic development plans do not clearly identify adaptation options other than the sea dike rehabilitation program. The MONRE officials involved in issuing guide-lines for these action plans stated that a province would definitely need assistance to develop adaptation plans at the provincial and district levels. The government planned to set aside 150 billion VND for 64 provinces and cities in the country to design their plans in 2009 and 2010, but to date, in fact, only 60 billion VND has been spent for four provinces. 189 P a g e

77 NTP Adaptation Measures The main adaptation measures mentioned in the NTP are also primarily 'structural' adaptation measures (sea dikes, reinforced infrastructure, more durable buildings) with some other measures, like resettlement, storm warning systems, and mangrove planting (MONRE 2008). Little attention has been paid to social vulnerability or 'non-structural' adaptation measures like community mobilization plans, social safety nets, insurance schemes, livelihood diversification, increasing institutional capacity, or the role of local action and social capital in building resilience and adaptive capacity outside of government programs. This is largely because to Vietnam, as with other countries in the region, "adaptation is understood as primarily a technical means with which to reduce and minimize the impact of climate change rather than as a complex set of responses to existing climatic and non-climatic factors that contribute to people's vulnerability" (Resurrection et al. 2008). The NTP emphasizes gender equality as one of the guiding principles. However, women's involvement in the consultations for the NTP's development was limited, and concrete gender targets have not been formulated. The number of women officials in the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment and the provincial Departments of Natural Resources and Environment is limited, and the overall system of governance is not well equipped for consultation with women and men at different levels in a policy formulation process such as this Sectoral Plans Agriculture In 2009, the Vietnamese government issued the National Food Security Strategy and Agricultural Land Planning; Towards In this, the Mekong River Delta is cast as maintaining a core role in national food security (and rice exports) with some 1.8 million hectares of land to be reserved for rice production in the region. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development will spatially allocate the target of 1.8 m ha across Provinces based on current land use. In addition, ambitious targets have been set under the Social and Economic Development Plan (SEDP) and the Social Economic Development Strategy for the continued expansion of aquaculture and fruit production within the Mekong River Delta. MARD has set a growth target for the agriculture sector of 3.5 percent per year for the period of And the agricultural production growth rate is targeted to increase to four percent per year in The Mekong River Delta is also expected to play a core role in future agro-industrial development. One of the primary methods of reaching the increased production targets is in the improvement of the production systems. MARD estimates that post harvest losses in the Delta could be up to 21 percent of the rice production value The MARD -Steering Committee for the Southwest Region has a plan to reduce post harvest losses by mechanising up to 80 percent of the harvesting segment and improving drying and storage infrastructure by 2020 (Vietnam News July 2, 2011). In setting up another method to improve production, the Plant Cultivation Department of MARD has launched a program to have rice grown on large scale farms of 100-2,000 ha throughout the Delta. The Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) has signed a proposal "The Project for Climate Change Adaptation for Sustainable Agriculture and Rural Development in the Coastal Mekong Delta in Vietnam', that plans to formulate a climate change adaptation master plan. Aquaculture Government Resolution 09/NQ/CP dated 15/10/2000 promotes the economic structural shift from "ineffective agriculture to aquaculture." 190 P a g e

78 Fisheries A recent study by the Research Institute for Marine Fisheries (RIMF) estimated that the potential net economic benefits from improved fisheries management are 56 percent greater than the current level while the catch could be achieved with approximately 46 percent of the current level of fishing effort. The government plans to rationalise and upgrade fisheries infrastructure under The Master Plan On Socio-Economic Development Of Vietnam's Sea And Coastal Areas In The Gulf Of Thailand Up To From 2011 to 2020, the plan intends to continue investment in comprehensively developing and modernising infrastructure facilities in the region. As well as ambitious plans to develop transport infrastructure to create the Southern Coastal Corridor and to improve urban and industrial infrastructure, the document contains some key statements related to fishery infrastructure in the region: To build Phu Quoc island into a general marine economic zone and a strong marine economic centre for the region and entire country; To rationally develop the regional seaport system. In addition, Decree 79/2003/ND-CP contains the legal framework for participation of local people in fisheries management and decision-making in Vietnam, and this has been complemented by a capture fishery co-management task force charged with the planning and implementation of certain pilot projects. In October 2011 MARD announced a plan to upgrade the seafood processing industry, including increasing cold storage capacity to 1.1 million tonnes. It also plans to equip fishing boats and seafood purchase vessels with storage facilities and to develop seafood processing research and training facilities (Vietnam News, 8 October 2011). Water Resources There are two major strategies related to water resources: a Water Resources Development Strategy to 2020 issued by MARD, and the National Targeted Program (2008) to respond to climate change issued by MONRE. The Government has adopted a policy on irrigation management transfer (IMT) which promotes participatory irrigation management. A decree has been adopted which transfers the responsibilities for managing the tertiary and quaternary irrigation canals and facilities to Water User Organisations (WUOs). However the implementation of this policy in the Mekong River Delta has progressed slowly. The Southern Institute for Water Resource Planning has released plans for improvement to the water resource infrastructure of the Ca Mau Peninsular (which includes southern Kien Giang). The proposal divides the region into three zones; saline water, brackish water and freshwater. The plan also involves improvements to the canal system in southern Kien Giang and the construction of a large number of new sluice gates along the coast and estuaries. The construction of a sea dyke along the coast of Ngoc Hien is also proposed. The newly signed World Bank Mekong Delta Water Resources Management For Rural Development Project will be implemented by MARD and will target the western part of the Mekong River Delta, including: An Giang, Ca Mau, Hau Giang, Soc Trang, Bac Lieu, and Kien Giang provinces and the Municipality of Can Tho. The two components of the project mentioned in the project appraisal document that will be important in improving the management of water resource for both Ca Mau and Kien Giang are: Component 1: Water Management Planning and Efficient Utilization, and Component 2: Improvement and Rehabilitation of Water Resources Infrastructure 191 P a g e

79 Natural Resources Vietnam's Action Plan for Bio-diversity Protection adopted by the Prime Minister on 22 December 1995 in Decision No. 845/TTg (Agenda 21) is the legal guideline for the country's activities concerning biodiversity protection at all levels and sectors. The long-term objective of the Action Plan is to protect the diversity, variety and characteristics of Vietnam's nature within the framework of sustainable development. The action plan has a number of components that will contribute to the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into natural area planning; Improve policies and legislation related to bio-diversity conservation. Develop regional bio-diversity action plans. Consolidate, expand and decentralise management systems for national parks and natural protected areas. Provide training on bio-diversity protection for management officials of forests and natural protected areas, scientists as well as other concerned people. Conduct scientific research and technological applications to sustainable exploitation and use of bio-diversity values, especially in agriculture, forestry, fishery and healthcare. Encourage communities to establish and realize common regulations on bio-diversity protection in local areas" (Prime Minister 1995). Under Agenda 21 the government plans to establish a Multi-stakeholder Council to instruct sustainable development which will be chaired by the Minister of Planning and Investment and each province will formulate its own Agenda 21. Decision No: 742/QD-TTg May 26, 2010 Approving The Plan On The System Of Vietnam's Marine Conservation Zones Through 2020 outlines a plan to build a system of marine conservation zones aiming to protect ecosystems and marine species of economic and scientific value; contribute to developing the marine economy and improving the livelihood of fishing communities in coastal localities. The National government has adopted a National Action Plan for Protection and Development of Vietnam's Mangrove Forests Till The overall objective of this action plan is to promote the protection, rehabilitation and wise use of Vietnam's mangrove ecosystem towards sustainable development so that the protection function, values and its biodiversity could meet the need of socio-economic development and environmental protection in river estuaries and coastal areas Energy The Power Master Plan IV mentions the major Kien Luong Power Plant planned to be built by the private Tan Tao Group (ITACO) that is officially aiming for the first 1.440MW to be in operation by The first Phase includes a new Nam Du archipelago deep-sea port complex on Hon Lon Island for imported coal on large ships to be trans-shipped onto smaller ships for transport to the proposed power plant (tantaocity.com 2011). The Power Plant project is clearly highly ambitious as it would be extremely highly leveraged and also ITACO has no experience in successfully developing large thermal power plants, nor has any such plant yet been developed under the BOO (Build Own Operate) modality in Vietnam to date. The project appears to have faced considerable implementation difficulties to date, its support from provincial authorities appears uncertain at best, and its current status is at best problematic (english.vietnamnet.vn 2011). A World Bank loan has been approved for a new 48 km submarine cable connection to Phu Quoc. A new electrical spur line from the main EVN provincial substation connection at 11 0kV to Ha Tien is planned to be built with EVN's own funds. The new 110 kv line will also provide the connection and extra electricity capacity for the ambitious industrial and economic zones planned for the Ha Tien area to P a g e

80 There are strong plans that are approved (and now at the detailed design stage and waiting for its geological survey to be approved) for a new 400 km long gas pipeline (246 km offshore and 152 km onshore) from the new Block B offshore gas field, a new gas processing plant, new LPG and condensate export pipelines to the coast and to an offshore ship loading platform, and a new gas pipeline to Can Tho - in particular for the planned O Mon power plant complex Urban and industry infrastructure Planning The Government's intentions towards the socio-economic development of both Ca Mau and Kien Giang are contained in a Prime Ministerial decision, (Prime Minister, 2009) which approves "the master plan on socioeconomic development of Vietnam's sea and coastal areas in the Gulf of Thailand up to 2020". It is intended: "From now up to 2010: to form the Thailand gulf coastal economic corridor and Phu Quoc special administrative-economic zone; to build basic infrastructure facilities in the region: to promote investment in key works, creating conditions for rapid development in the subsequent periods." "From 2011 to 2020: to continue investment in comprehensively developing and modernising infrastructure facilities in the region; to complete the building of the region's important works and put them into operation according to the master plan; to develop Phu Quoc administrative-economic zone according to the master plan." From the urban planning and transportation aspect the following are some of the key statements in the document: develop and modernise the infrastructure system, especially transport infrastructure To build the Thailand gulf coastal economic corridor as the backbone of the entire region's development; develop the regional seaport system: build a number of coastal urban centres into strong marine economic centres, seaward centres and growth cores in each area to promote sea-island economy, upgrade and expand routes linking Vietnam's sea and coastal areas with the inland, To build Ha Tien - Kien Luong and Nam Can - Dat Mui tourist clusters To renovate and upgrade Ca Mau and Rach Gia airports to reach an annual capacity of 300,000 passengers. To build Duong To international airport (Phu Quoc) 2 million passengers/year in the initial stage; To invest in upgrading the sea dyke system together with building a new road along the coastline from Nam Can to Rach Gia build complete and step by step modernise wastewater drainage and treatment systems; To plan suitable locations and sizes of garbage treatment sites for cities, towns, townships and industrial parks. There are plans to boost tourism with a new extension of Vietnam's highway 1 to the southern tip of Vietnam. The road is already under construction, with implications to add new energy demands and for service industries alongside the new road and in any new settlements. However, the new road will go through a national park and mangrove forests. Urban Planning There is clearly a determination to rapidly develop the 3 key urban areas of Ca Mau to form a production/processing triangle. Much of this thrust comes from the National level. The key outstanding feature of the plans for the 3 centres is the huge amount of industrial land which has been allocated. Clearly, as the national policy for the Province is to move from a Primary producer to one which focuses on Industry and Services (based mostly on adding value to primary products) then the latter two sectors must generate most of the future local GDP and employ much larger numbers of workers than at present. 193 P a g e

81 It has been decided (Prime Ministers decision No. 1873/QD-TTg dated 11th October 2011) at the national level that solid waste treatment facilities are required to be constructed throughout the Mekong river delta key economic region. This decision is also based on the national strategy on integrated management of solid waste through 2025, with 2050 vision. An expansion programme is planned for Phu Quoc Island Water supply later this year (for 2-3 years) to increase production to 16,500 m 3 /day through a loan from the World Bank (70%) and rest from central government. Roads The main planned strategic elements are the extension of National Highway 1 to Ca Mau Cape (by end 2013 under state budget) and the Southern Coastal Corridor (SCC) up to the Cambodia border. In addition, a new route is being considered from Song Doc to link with Highway 1 at Cai Nuoc, between Ca Mau City and Nam Can. Together these routes would more closely integrate the 3 main urban areas in the Province (Ca Mau City, Nam Can, Song Doc) and link them all to national routes both north and east. The main road proposal affecting Kien Giang is the ADB sponsored Southern Coastal Corridor (SCC) (work expected to start in 2012) which will basically follow the route of National Road (NR) 80 Construction of roads is both complicated, due to difficult ground conditions, and expensive, as all materials have to be transported into the Province (mostly using the canal network). Road construction is further complicated by the need to meet current elevation codes. The Highway 1 Extension was designed to 1.8 metres AMSL 4 years ago (total cost 3,932 billion VND at 2008 prices) but the codes are now 2.3 and 2.1 metres respectively for National and Provincial highways. Apart from requiring additional materials and design considerations this requirement has consequences for service provision along roads and also for property and other road connections. Inland Waterways It is planned that most of the waterways will also be upgraded in future to classes II or III. Upgrades can include: bank protection, dredging, improved navigation devices and lifting of bridges and power cables. Since there are no deep water ports on the Kien Giang provincial mainland it is intended to develop the island of Nam Du as a general transit deep water port where large cargoes can be broken down or assembled for local markets. The island of Phu Quoc does have a deep water port at An Thoi in the south and is planning a new one at Bai Dat Do. The existing small port of Hon Chong (south of Kien Luong) is proposed to be upgraded in two phases. The proposed power plant at Kien Luong Town is also expected to have a port facility to directly import coal Disaster management Water management issues related to flood control are organised by Flood and storm control steering committees. There is a National programme of building flood proof residential clusters in the Delta. Provinces within the Delta have already relocated more than 130,000 households in low lying areas into flood proof residential clusters under phase 1. In the Long Xuyen Quadrangle, the program also involves consolidating old dykes and building new ones. Sluice gates and pumping stations are upgraded and canals are dredged. The master plan on socio-economic development of Vietnam's sea and coastal areas in the Gulf of Thailand up to 2020 plans to invest in upgrading the sea dyke system together with building a new road along the coastline from Nam Can to Rach Gia to meet the requirement for natural disaster management at a high safety level in combination with social-economic development, security and defence. 194 P a g e

82 Current Flood and Storm Response Guidance for improving disaster risk management at the national and provincial levels is provided by the new National Strategy for Natural Disaster Prevention, Control and Mitigation until 2020 (Prime Minister, 2007). The current approach to natural disasters has been largely reactive with little attention given to the role of affected communities in the planning, implementation and management of disaster risk reduction measures. After the devastating floods of 2000 and 2001, the member countries of the MRC entered into discussions to take drastic steps towards the reduction of damage to infrastructure, economies and loss of lives and livelihoods. The MRC's Joint Committee and Council endorsed the implementation of a dedicated Flood Management and Mitigation Programme (FMMP). Since 2004, the implementation of the FMMP has proceeded in line with the MRC's Strategic Plan In Vietnam the overall coordinator for dealing with such events is the Central Committee for Flood and Storm Control (CCFSC). The CCFSC is chaired by the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD). Other members of the CCFSC include relevant line ministries, the Department of Dyke Management, Floods and Storm Control (DDMFSC), the Disaster Management Centre, the Hydro-meteorological Service, and the Viet Nam Red Cross (VNRC). The CCFSC is responsible for gathering data, monitoring flood and storm events, issuing official warnings and coordinating disaster response and mitigation measures. The authorities in all localities and each sector ministry also have committees for flood and storm control. The Second National Strategy is principally designed to address short-term climate extremes rather than to respond to future climate change. The strategy focuses on emergency response and reconstruction, rather than risk prevention and adaptation. There is also a marked lack of integration between disaster risk reduction policies and wider policies for rural development and little cross sectoral integration or coordination. There is limited Government ownership yet of an adaptive approach to future climate related risks, and limited financing available for climate change adaptation. At the provincial level, Flood and Storm Response Plan do exist but don't appear to be functioning at the maximum level. The development of flood infrastructure is limited to urban areas or stretches of canals improved by private individuals in haphazard manner and of varying quality. The opening of sluice gates can be under either District or Provincial control and there is no coordination or dissemination of opening and closing times. Typhoon Linda Typhoon Linda, which tore through southern Vietnam during the night of November 2, 1997, has been labelled as the worst typhoon to strike that area in 100 years. The typhoon swept away tens of thousands of homes in the Mekong Delta. 435 people were killed, 833 were injured, and 3,660 were unaccounted for. Nearly 80,000 houses are reported as destroyed and almost 140,000 as badly damaged. Infrastructure (roads, schools and hospitals) also suffered heavily and nearly 500,000 hectares of rice-fields were damaged. The hardest hit provinces were Kien Giang, Ca Mau, Bac Lieu, Soc Trang, Tra Vinh, Ben Tre and Vung Tau. Vietnam has developed an effective early warning system for storms which incorporates use of the media, television and radio and local officials who then alert inhabitants in towns and villages. However, the speed and intensity with which Typhoon Linda developed meant that little warning could be given to the thousands of fishermen who were at sea as the storm approached. Very few of the small boats that made up the fishing fleets have radios and even less carry life preservers. Following the typhoon's passing, helicopters and navy cutters were used in a massive search and rescue operation with the result that around 5,000 fishermen were rescued (tiempo 2011). On land, entire communities were flattened, tens of thousands of people were left homeless and roads, dikes and bridges were damaged and washed away (tiempo 2011). The extensive system of sea walls and dikes where not sufficiently high in many areas due to resource constraints. On the Cau Mau Peninsula, previous destruction of the mangrove forests which provide natural protection against storm-induced flooding aggravated the impact of Typhoon Linda. 195 P a g e

83 The Vietnam Red Cross (VNRC) used US$ 4.8 million to assist 150,000 victims with emergency food and shelter for three months. After the cyclone, the Federation immediately released US$142,000 from an emergency fund to purchase some of the most urgently needed emergency supplies - rice, corrugated iron sheeting, mosquito nets, medicines and clothing -- in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) and locally in Ca Mau. Two days after the typhoon, the Ca Mau provincial VNRC chapter was actively distributing relief and rehabilitation supplies to the victims of Typhoon Linda in Ca Mau City and south by river boat across the Mekong Delta. And relief goods (roofing sheets, blankets and mosquito nets) were distributed from the Red Cross storage facility in Bac Lieu. The VNRC Branch staff and volunteers across the affected provinces assisted in the evacuation of coastal communities. After the storm passed, Red Cross youth groups were dispatched to the shoreline to help the families of lost fishermen (ANRC 1997). 8.3 Provincial Departments At the provincial level the Peoples Party Committees (PPCs) have considerable autonomy, and represent the central government and control the activities within their areas. In both Kien Giang and Ca Mau, the PPC have formed 'climate change committees' who are responsible for overseeing and coordinating climate change adaptation activities in their respective provinces Agriculture and Livelihoods Provincial departments carry out the management of natural resources under the guidance of the respective PPCs. Three Departments DARD, DONRE and DOST are the major players in the agricultural and environment sector, with the DARDs being responsible for planning and implementation of agriculture and rural development measures. DARD plays the important role of development of adaptation measures for farmers. The Provincial DARDs allocate the provincial agricultural targets in draft land use plans. These draft plans and their implementation project proposals need approval by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development or its Province Department, depending on investment levels involved. The Ministry of Investment and Planning will be involved if large-scale investments in infrastructure are necessary The planning and research capacity at the province level is of mixed quality and all three Departments lack both horizontal and vertical coordination and cooperation. At the senior level in the departments there is an awareness of climate change and the need for environmental conservation. For example the proclamation of the Biosphere reserve and the active role DoST has played in gaining protection for the Phu My grassland is a good example of inter department cooperation and shows good departmental awareness of conservation issues. On the other hand there are many examples of financial/development considerations being allowed to overcome conservation planning. A commercial company was allowed to destroy mangroves along a section of the coastline in the biosphere reserve to construct an 88 ha base for an unfinanced (and probably financially unfeasible) power plant, and DARD allowed the clearing of a large area of mangroves in nearby Ha Tien for aquaculture. Many senior staff are also aware of the issue of a lack of institutional coordination and cooperation. The departments are applying for funding to address the issues of the lack of planning capacity and technical ability to deal with climate change adaptation. They also acknowledge that there is a lack of mechanisms for incorporating new information into the current planning process. Provincial Irrigation Divisions and/or Irrigation and Drainage Management Companies (IDMC) under the DARDs are responsible for the operation and maintenance of irrigation and flood control systems within their respective provinces. While the Irrigation Divisions, IDMCs and the DARDs have basic technical and administrative capacity to operate the water management infrastructure at the provincial or lower level, their capacity and the current institutional setting need to be upgraded to enable them to 196 P a g e

84 effectively address expected climate change impacts and the diversified needs of the different water users. Provincial Fisheries Departments under the PPC are the local fisheries administration authorities with professional management from the Ministry of Fisheries. On the ground there is a Provincial Agriculture and Fisheries Extension Centre (Kien Giang) and an Aquaculture Extension Centre (Ca Mau) with skilled extension officers who are able to attend training workshops. The lack of staff (around 20 staff per Province) at this level however means that there is limited capacity to transfer knowledge to the community Urban Settlements and Transport Urban Planning is carried out at a provincial level; however the most important consideration for future Physical Planning is Regional Policy in that key provincial development decisions are conceptualised at and delegated from the national level. Consultants are used extensively for strategic urban and transport planning exercises although all local authorities interviewed agreed that there were extensive consultations prior to plan preparation. This allowed authorities to be knowledgeable about plans. However, there seemed to be less certainty when plans or alignments were being amended and had not been finalised. Authorities in Ca Mau are aware that the urban infrastructure requires upgrading. A national urban upgrade scheme approved by the Prime Minister two years ago has developed into a range of urban infrastructure projects (to start next year) which will improve living standards in low-income neighbourhoods. It will ensure that more than 5,000 local households in the city's nine wards will benefit directly from the project. An additional 25,000 households will be affected indirectly. It is intended that Ca Mau will reach Class 1 urban status by The current concept for Kien Giang to 2025 is to have developed a multi-centre Province with each centre having its own distinct attraction and characteristics. There is also development underway to transform Kien Luong into a major urban area associated with a planned new thermal power plant and industrial area focusing on food processing. This is certainly a Province in a hurry to develop. Urban Water supply In Ca Mau, CMWSSUW has developed plans to supply the urban needs of the 3 centres up to 2020 and beyond. However, there is concern that in next 10 years much of the available groundwater will have been exhausted and/or quality will be unacceptable. The CMWSSUW may then have to turn to surface water. The company is examining the potential of a canal from Can Tho located about 7-8 km away from Ca Mau which carries fresh water. In Rach Gia City, the KGWSS Company will expand capacity of its current plant to 50,000 m 3 /day through rebuilding in situ. It plans to construct ( ) a new plant south of Rach Gia with extraction from the Kai San channel, which is also a surface water system with salinity issues. It will have a capacity of 20,000 m 3 /day and would have a similar reservoir system as the current plant. In Ha Tien City, the KGWSS company will invest in a new plant with 20,000 m 3 /day capacity with 12-15,000 m 3 /day for the proposed power plant and the rest for households, especially for the Kien Luong urban expansion (which currently in the south has surface water feeding a reservoir) whereas in Kien Luong town water is from the Ha Tien 2 cement factory). Urban Drainage and Sewage Disposal In the 1990's two varying systems were examined for Ca Mau City: to use the surrounding lake network to dispose of sewage; or to construct a pumping system. The latter was chosen and the project is to be funded by Italian aid ( 13.6 million concessional credit). A program of building embankments along rivers and installing gates to prevent flooding from high tides is also included in the Italian 197 P a g e

85 program. Together with a higher building elevation code (1.85 metres) it is intended to improve the flooding situation over time. In Nam Can, The proposed Eastern sea dyke (under DARD) will connect to Nam Can at Ring Road No. 2 and divide the town in half (north-east protected, south-east unprotected) but there are plans for a local embankment to the south to protect the remaining area. There are also tentative plans to build embankments along selected canals to minimise flood risks in future. In Song Doc, The urban plan shows a general extension of the town (including the administrative centre) to the east away from the mouth of the Ong Duc River. A comprehensive plan should be able to provide for more efficient drainage and sewage disposal in this new area. There is a future plan to regularise and renew the older part of town over time with a more formal layout and better facilities. In Rach Gia City, Three plants are planned by 2025 under a World Bank project with combined sewage and drainage. Along riverbanks it is planned to relocate those without sewage disposal facilities (1000 HH) by Small industries it is planned to move them to the industrial zone in Tac Cau town where treatment is provided. Ha Tien City/Kien Luong Town have a plan for sewage treatment plant and funding has been requested from ADB. In the Kien Luong urban expansion area there is a plan for a combined drainage and sewage system. Transport DoT is responsible for roads and bridges, however as dykes are primarily designed to protect agricultural areas from floods or saline water they fall under DARDs responsibility. Discussions are ongoing between DARD and DoT as to who should operate dykes with roads. It is the opinion of the DoT in Ca Mau that in future roads should not be built on dykes so that each operation and maintenance is kept separate. In Kien Giang, DoT and DARD are discussing the design and operational arrangements of a sea dyke which is planned to run along most of the coast. There are plans to boost tourism with a new extension of Vietnam's highway 1 to the southern tip of Vietnam. The road is already under construction, with implications to add new energy demands and for service industries alongside the new road and in any new settlements. However, the new road will go through the national park and mangrove forests. At the provincial level map making is by AutoCAD. Officially no GIS programmes such as MapInfo or ArcGIS are utilised. It would seem that there are no difficulties for individual Provincial agencies to obtain map themes from other departments (e.g. cadastral maps). However, there is much scope for using database software and GIS to update and share details of current structures and networks and also proposed development plans Industry and energy sector. One 10 MW grid connected rice husk fuelled power plant is included in tentative future plans for Kien Hiang but there has apparently been little detailed investigation or design work undertaken to date. The rice production in Kien Giang province would be sufficient to support three such power plants. There are plans for Ca Mau provincial electrification to be extended to an additional 15,000 households by 2015 to give 99% electrification coverage, which would probably be close to the ultimate practical electrification limit in Ca Mau province. Two 10MW grid connected rice husk/straw fuelled power plants are included in future Ca Mau provincial development plans to be developed in three northern rice growing areas. With most rice now being husked outside Ca Mau province, and rice production down 40% from its peak, it would seem more likely that rice husk power plants would be built in the neighbouring provinces near to the existing rice husking plants. Unfortunately there seems to be little overall coordination of how much total industrial area is actually being planned and/or developed in various areas. Ideally there would be a regional strategy which provided an overall framework within which Provinces could determine together the amount of 198 P a g e

86 industrial space that was appropriate given its investment potential based on factors such as the comparative advantage of the area (i.e. what does it produce better than others); its population and workforce (i.e. is the area currently attracting or losing skilled/unskilled workers/population); and accessibility (i.e. are markets conveniently located and is the transport system adequate). However, the Minister of MONRE has been reported as saying (Vietnam News, 2011) that "Localities have developed industrial clusters without strict calculations or close co-operation within regions or provinces. Such projects spent a lot for land for agricultural cultivation and did not base this on real economic development". A number of new industrial zones in both provinces are being developed in very low lying areas only around 0.5 to 1.5 m above water level, for example the new industrial zone near Ha Tien in Kien Giang province that is currently being developed in a wetland next to the main Ha Tien to Rach Gia canal. An optimal climate-proofed strategy for industrial zone development does not to have been developed. Many industrial sites will eventually either need to be raised or defended or abandoned. New industrial zones are also being established remote from the population centres that would be needed to provide the necessary workforce for any new factories. The new Thuan Yien industrial zone appears to have been chosen more for its lack of prior residents to resettle, rather than for its proximity to a suitable workforce. There was little consideration of the sites vulnerability or ability to be defended against any future climate change effects. Vietnam appears to have an excessive number of individual ship building plants, and the isolated plant at Nam Can is not part of any ship building cluster. The ownership of the Nam Can ship building plant has recently been transferred to Vinalines whose core business is operating and not building ships, so it's long term future viability must realistically be seen as uncertain. For the Ca Mau gas-power-fertiliser complex there was apparently no consideration of climate change impacts in the current five year power plant rehabilitation project. A feasibility study for the fertiliser plant was apparently finalised in As the site has never had inundation issues, and did not suffer any impact from the major typhoon Linda in 1997, it was concluded that the site did not need to consider any special flooding impact or any site protection considerations. The plant's management unit, both at an overall level and for its individual components, climate change was clearly seen to be an environmental issue to be dealt with by the environmental team, and not a business investment strategic issue. No information could be found from the relevant environmental management staff as to site heights above water level, nor any need to consider the practicalities of defending the site against any water level rise or other climate change effects. According to the site plans on the wall at the EPC contractor's site office the site is only 2.38 m AWL. The lack of consideration of future climate effects, and in particular to extreme weather events as well as sea level rise is not just confined to new industrial zones. The site of the proposed new $7 billion Kien Luong power plant complex does not seem to be designed for a worst case maximum sea level rise and/or any increased extreme weather events scenarios over the year lifetime of such a massive new coal fired power plant complex. The proposed power plant which is incorporated into the Power Master Plan IV, is planned to be built by the private Tan Tao Group (ITACO) and would be the first major private power plant development in Vietnam to be financed, constructed and operated as a BOO (Build Own Operate) project. The first Phase includes a new deep-sea port complex on Hon Lon Island for imported coal on large ships to be trans-shipped onto smaller ships for transport to the proposed power plant. It is claimed that nearly $100 Million has been spent on 88 ha of reclamation to a height of 3.27 m in a 3 to 13 m depth sea site for the power plant, with km of reinforced concrete m sheet piles to form a breakwater being claimed, although a visit to part of the site did not reveal any sheet piles at the area visited. When the proposed Kien Luong power plant site was being visited, the fill being used on the offshore site clearly came from a borrow pit just inland from the site and not from an inland quarry as was claimed. The composition and dumping of the fill also seemed to be remarkably haphazard for a proposed major power plant site. The Kien Luong Power Plant project is clearly highly ambitious as it would be extremely highly leveraged and also ITACO has no experience in successfully developing 199 P a g e

87 large thermal power plants, nor has any such plant yet been developed under the BOO (Build Own Operate) modality in Vietnam to date. The project appears to have faced considerable implementation difficulties to date, its support from provincial authorities appears uncertain at best, and its current status is at best problematic. 8.4 District Level Agriculture and Livelihood In the environmental sector Departments are represented at the local district level by Forest Protection Boards and staff and National Park Management Boards and staff. At the local level park and forest rangers are the on the ground representatives. There are two major issues faced by staff at the local level. Lack of funding and low wages leads to a poor quality of service and there are no mechanisms for the transfer of knowledge from the scientific community to field officers. As a result farmers tend to use alternative sources of information for farm management decisions. In Ca Mau the DARD Department of Promotion has 167 staff, spread out in the 9 Districts with each office having about 3 staff. At Commune level, each of the 98 Communes has one Department staff member. Both U Minh Thuong and Phu Quoc National Park have attracted international aid to build planning and management capacity but still appear to have a low capacity to deal with predicted climate change issues. U Minh Thuong National Park has attracted funding and has developed links with the National Forest University in order to manage water levels in the park with an aim to reduce the risk of fire and to maintain biodiversity. This will be a critical component of managing water and mitigating impacts of climate change for the surrounding regions in the future. Phu Quoc National park also has the issue of directives from the National government overriding local planning decisions. There is also a poor level of awareness of the value of the marine protection areas component of the Biosphere reserve with much of the focus on coral bleaching and marine mammals but little emphasis on the importance of the seagrass and mangrove ecosystems or of the value of fish and other marine organisms. DARD has taken over many responsibilities for forested areas, including protected areas, from DONRE, which has been left with biodiversity management as its major function. Mangrove forests in Kien Giang are categorized as protection forest. Under Decision 51, the Kien Giang provincial People's committee assigns direct management of these forests to Forest Protection Management Boards. The Management Boards then act as forest owners, implementing all protection, plantation, and management activities and entering into protection contracts with local people. Main reasons for the failure of mangrove replanting efforts 1. The planning and management of land use and mangrove forest use is ineffective and a lack of coordination between relevant sectors. 2. Lack of technical models of afforestation in the coastal areas. 3. Lack of suitable investment, especially for afforestation in erosive areas. Means for preventing waves, wind and promoting silt accretion are required before planting forests in these areas. 4. Limited staff capacity, insufficient personnel, insufficient FPM station, limited patrol, lack of close coordination with local authorities and people in FPM, especially improving the people's awareness (KGPPC/DARD 2011). 200 P a g e

88 8.4.2 Urban Settlements and Transport Most Districts interviewed were aware of plans for urban expansion and road improvements but had limited inputs in much of the details. For example, for the proposed route of the Southern Coastal Corridor all Districts were of the opinion that the details of any resettlement would be the responsibility of the Provincial authorities. Urban water supply is the responsibility of one company in all but one of the Districts (Ca Mau) and for 11 out of 15 Districts (Kien Giang). Local authorities were thus understandably not confident about the details of the schemes operating in their urban areas. Districts are responsible for some roads but road construction is merely the provision or upgrading of roads to communes and there is very little strategic planning being carried out. Apart from the diesel generators on the island districts, energy infrastructure is controlled at the province level. 8.5 Survey Results With regards to the planning of urban, transport, industry and energy planning, the Capacity at the district level was captured at the district level through the survey questions. It must be noted that the answers are presented as given by District authorities and are not checked for accuracy. Table 69 shows the answers to the questions regarding the levels of consideration, concern, awareness and preparedness of the district to the impacts of climate change. Most districts claim to be Very Concerned about potential impact of climate change on operations and that local people are somewhat aware of the potential impact of climate change. Most district claim to be somewhat prepared for climate change and to have directly considered potential impact of climate change on infrastructure or operations. 14 districts state that planning takes into account future climate changes. The survey results indicate that district officials consider that there is at least awareness of climate change issues and that some consideration of climate change issues has been incorporated into plans. However, the usual practice is to use consultants for preparing plans so the incorporation of climate change issues does not necessarily mean that the capacity exists at the local institutional level. 201 P a g e

89 Table 69 - Results of district survey regarding climate change preparedness and awareness. District District directly considered potential impact of climate change on infrastructure or operations Level of concern about potential impact of climate change on operations Does planning take into account future climate changes? Awareness of local people about the potential impact of climate change Preparedness of District for climate change Rach Gia Somewhat Very Yes Somewhat Somewhat Ha Tien Somewhat Very Yes Somewhat Somewhat An Bien Somewhat Very Yes Somewhat Somewhat An Minh Somewhat Somewhat Yes Somewhat Somewhat Chau Thanh Somewhat Very Yes Somewhat Somewhat Giang Thanh Somewhat Very No Somewhat Somewhat Giong Rieng Somewhat Very Yes Somewhat Somewhat Go Quao Somewhat Very Somewhat Somewhat Hon Dat Yes Somewhat Yes Somewhat Kien Hai Somewhat Very Somewhat Somewhat Kien Luong Yes Somewhat Yes Somewhat Somewhat Phu Quoc No Very Yes Somewhat Somewhat Tan Hiep Somewhat Very No Somewhat Somewhat U Minh Thuong Somewhat Very Yes Somewhat Somewhat Vinh Thuan No Very Yes Somewhat Somewhat Ca Mau Somewhat Very Yes Not at all Cai Nuoc No Very Somewhat Somewhat Dam Doi Somewhat Very Yes Somewhat Not at all Nam Can Yes Very Somewhat Somewhat Ngoc Hien Somewhat Very No Somewhat Somewhat Phu Tan Somewhat Very Somewhat Very Thoi Binh No Very Yes Somewhat Somewhat Tran Van Thoi Somewhat Very Somewhat Somewhat U Minh Somewhat Very Yes Somewhat Somewhat The results of the survey questions that relate to the perceived barriers to incorporating climate change adaptation into the planning process are shown in Table 70. Most districts claimed a lack of funding for climate change planning and adaptation measure investments and poor public understanding and a lack of public support as the main barriers to taking action to address potential climate change impacts. Very few districts claim uncertainty about climate change outcomes, a lack of coordination among government agencies or the practice of making decisions based on past conditions as barriers to taking action. Rather than providing insights into the barriers and preparedness / consideration of climate change impacts at the district level, the survey results indicate a lack of understanding of the requirements for up to date climate change projections and a lack of capacity to generate non structural adaptation options that also contribute to socio economic improvement. 202 P a g e

90 Table 70 - Perceived barriers to incorporating climate change in district planning decisions. District Barrier Uncertainty about climate change outcomes Lack of information about potential climate change impacts Poor public understanding and lack of public support Lack of funding for climate change planning Lack of funding for adaptation measure investments Lack of coordination among government agencies Practice of making decisions based on past conditions Rach Gia Yes Yes Ha Tien Yes Yes Yes An Bien Yes Yes Yes Yes An Minh Yes Yes Yes Yes Chau Yes Yes Yes Thanh Giang Yes Yes Yes Yes Thanh Giong Yes Yes Yes Yes Rieng Go Quao Yes Yes Hon Dat Yes Yes Yes Kien Hai Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Kien Luong Yes Yes Yes Yes Phu Quoc Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Tan Hiep Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes U Minh Yes Yes Yes Thuong Vinh Thuan Yes Yes Yes Yes Ca Mau Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Cai Nuoc Dam Doi Yes Yes Yes Yes Nam Can Yes Yes Yes Ngoc Hien Yes Yes Yes Yes Phu Tan Yes Yes Thoi Binh Yes Tran Van Thoi Yes Yes Yes Yes U Minh Yes Yes Yes 8.6 Local Level In the agriculture sector, the main drivers of the exchange of information and the dissemination of new techniques are the local extension officers who have limited capacity to attend workshops and often play multiple roles in overseeing forestry, aquaculture and agriculture. Of key importance at the local level are the commune and Village heads, The Women's Union, the Youth Movement and local Farmers Unions. The agricultural success of individual villages and communes is often highly reliant on the strength of these groups. The extent of the incorporation of climate change into the district planning process is outlined in the survey results outlined in Tables 69 and 70. No districts have yet prepared a climate change assessment or identified adaptation options and only one district Nam Cam has estimated likely climate change effects. Despite this lack of information regarding potential impacts of climate change, 3 districts have developed a climate change action plan and five have implemented adaptation option methods. While very few districts claim to have specific climate change in policy or plans many 203 P a g e

91 (particularly in Kien Giang) claim to have explicitly considered climate change in their 5 or 10 year master plans. While many districts have started or plan to start awareness raising campaigns and improved forecasting, very few have developed controls and restrictions on development or considered retreat strategies. 8.7 Summary of institutional capacity in the area of climate change adaptation The most important consideration for future Physical Planning is that Regional Policy as key provincial development decisions are conceptualised at and delegated from the national level. The overview of the number of government bodies responsible for planning and management in the key sectors (agricultural and natural resources, industry, energy, urban Settlements and transport) illustrates one of the primary issues that inhibit effective management of these sectors, namely the considerable overlap of responsibilities among government agencies. This is compounded by a lack of inter agency communication and an institutional environment that actively suppresses cooperation and knowledge sharing. This means that there is a lack of ability to develop coordinated strategies and policies. In addition, most ministries lack capacity to develop strong policy and secondary legislation. Other significant issues that hinder effective natural resource management include; Ineffective inspection and enforcement and conflict resolution activities. Low level of awareness, skills and technology for climate change adaptation. Data and information is still scatted, monitoring networks are insufficient and data quality is not high. In the agriculture and natural resource sector, there is considerable overlap of responsibilities among government agencies and all of the ministries, in particular the most directly active ministries, MARD and MoNRE, lack both horizontal and vertical coordination and cooperation. And budgets for natural resources development and management are limited and have not met the demand of the sector. In the industry sector there is a lack of consideration of future climate effects, and in particular to extreme weather events as well as sea level rise for planned industrial and energy infrastructure. For the sector as a whole, there seems to be little overall coordination of how much total industrial area is actually being planned and/or developed in various areas. Ideally there would be a regional strategy which provided an overall framework within which Provinces could determine together the amount of industrial space that was appropriate given its investment potential. In the urban sector, national Guidelines have been provided to provinces and cities to assist them to develop their own action plans. Unfortunately, the adaptation plans for both provinces have not been completed, and the planning instruments available, such as the socio-economic development plans do not clearly identify adaptation options other than the sea dike rehabilitation program. Consultants are used extensively for developing strategic planning exercises and although all local authorities interviewed agreed that there were extensive consultations prior to plan preparation there seemed to be less certainty when plans or alignments were being amended and had not been finalised. The survey results indicate that at the district level there is a lack of understanding of the requirements for up to date climate change projections and a lack of capacity to generate non structural adaptation options that also contribute to socio economic improvement. No districts have yet prepared a climate change assessment or identified adaptation options and only one district Nam Cam has estimated likely climate change effects. Despite this lack of information 204 P a g e

92 regarding potential impacts of climate change, three districts have developed a climate change action plan and five have implemented adaptation option methods. At the national level, the main adaptation measures mentioned in the NTP are also primarily 'structural' adaptation measures (sea dikes, reinforced infrastructure, more durable buildings) with some other measures, like resettlement, storm warning systems, and mangrove planting (MONRE 2008). Little attention has been paid to social vulnerability or 'non-structural' adaptation measures like community mobilization plans, social safety nets, insurance schemes, livelihood diversification, increasing institutional capacity, or the role of local action and social capital in building resilience and adaptive capacity outside of government programs. The NTP emphasizes gender equality as one of the guiding principles. However, women's involvement in the consultations for the NTP's development was limited. Of key importance at the local level are the commune and Village heads, The Women's Union, the Youth Movement and local Farmers Unions. There is a lack of involvement of these key groups in the climate change adaptation process. There are a number of projects (both past and present) which will assist in increasing resilience to the impacts of climate change in the Mekong Delta. These projects outlined in Appendix 7, collectively involve the strengthening of institutions, policy and regulations, and practices. Many follow on from, or are acting in synergy with, projects for the NTP Measures of Capacity The important measures of capacity are concerned with a set of cross-cutting, functional capacities, which are sector neutral and common to all organisations, institutions and systems. In the past few years research and on the ground development experience have shown that 'horizontal' investments in these cross-cutting capacities yield long-lasting and far-reaching development results. The crosscutting capacity measures are: 1. The capacity to engage with stakeholders and create consensus around a policy, a bill or a plan; 2. the capacity to articulate the mandate of a new institution or to vision the trajectory of an organisation or even a society; 3. the capacity to develop a strategy, translate it into a plan and prepare a budget; 4. the capacity to implement a programme or a policy and 5. the capacity to monitor its implementation and evaluate results These cross-cutting, functional capacities are not just merely management capacities; they hinge on, and are closely connected with, 6. effective and good leadership capacity; 7. the existence of effective and well functioning institutions and institutional arrangements, including a structured system of incentives; 8. an environment conducive to knowledge sharing and knowledge acquisition; as well as 9. Transparent and independent accountability systems. 205 P a g e

93 Table 71 Qualitative Assessment of institutional capacity for nine key measures. Capacity component Engage with stakeholders and create consensus Vision a trajectory Develop a strategy and translate into a plan and budget Implement a programme or policy Monitor and evaluate results Effective and good leadership Effective and well functioning institutions Environment conducive to knowledge sharing Transparent and independent accountability systems Assessment Key provincial development decisions are conceptualised at and delegated from the national level Awareness programs are often in place but poor understanding by the public is stated as barrier. Women and farmers unions are poorly represented in planning stages Prime minister proclamations generally contain appropriate visionary components Strategies are poorly developed and plans lack concrete steps Lack of processes and checks in programme implementation Very weekly developed There is a distinct lack of tendency for individuals to take on decision making roles Many institutions do not function well Institutional environment actively suppresses knowledge sharing Complete absence of transparency accountability system The lack of institutional capacity is acknowledged by the central government and the capacity level can be summarised by a statement by the Prime Minister in 1995, which still holds today. The system of state environmental management agencies has been established from central to local levels, however, their capacity remains limited, especially at provincial level, which cannot thoroughly address local sustainable development issues. The coordination between state agencies and research institutions has not been very smooth, and information has not been quickly updated to meet the need for the adjustment of polices and plans within the environmental sector itself as well as the need of other socio-economic sectors. There is still a considerable shortage of secondary laws and regulations and other necessary legal documents. More importantly, there is a lack of economic measures and tools to encourage environmental protection as well as to deal with environmental violations in the market economy. Action strategies and plans on environmental protection were developed separately from those of socio-economic development and there was a poor participation from stakeholders, counterparts as well as communities, leading to limited viability (Prime Minister 1995). Capacity at the national, provincial and district level capacity was assessed through an analysis of existing planning components and the project survey. The results indicate that there is a considerable lack of institutional capacity at all levels of government. Capacity at the local level was not specifically assessed and would be an important component in the process of choosing sites for pilot projects. It is recommended that a formal assessment of adaptive capacity be carried out as a first step in designing an institutional climate change adaptation capacity building program. 206 P a g e

94 9. Key Findings & Recommendations 9.1 Climate Change Projections The future climate change projections for the Mekong Delta include: Climate parameters Increased seasonal air temperature ranging from 0.7 C warmer by 2030 to 1.4 C warmer by 2050 for Ca Mau, and 0.5 C to 0.9 C warmer for Kien Giang by 2050; By the end of 21st century, the annual temperature would increase by about 1.5 to 2.0 C in Ca Mau and Kien Giang. The increase of Ca Mau is higher than in Kien Giang The maximum temperature increases by less than the minimum temperature. By the end of 21st century, the maximum temperature can be higher than current record about from 2 to 2.5 C compared with an increase of 3.5 to 4.0 C for the minimum temperature. By the end of 21st century, rainfall is expected to increase by about 3 to 4% in both Kien Giang and Ca Mau compared to the baseline. Rainfall tends to increase in rainy months (by up to 25% by the end of the century) and decrease in dry months (can be from 30 to 35%). By the end of the 21st century, rainfall would increase in both Kien Giang and Ca Mau with an increase of 5-10% compared with the baseline period. Extreme rainfall events will increase in intensity by around 10% by An average sea level rise of 15 centimetres in 2030 and centimetres by 2050; and By the end of the 21st century, the sea level from Ca Mau to Kien Giang would rise up to 72 cm (low scenario), 82 cm (medium scenario) and 105 cm (high scenario) compared with ; Relative humidity decreases in the dry months, increase in rainy months. However, the annual relative humidity tends to decrease slightly over both 2 provinces. Average wind speed increases in winter, spring and autumn months, but decreases in the summer months. Annual average wind speed increases in most areas of Ca Mau and does not have a clear trend in Kien Giang Sea Level Rise & Inundation Sea level rise will represent significant challenges for the Mekong Delta, especially the low lying areas in Kien Giang and Ca Mau. Kien Giang and Ca Mau have elevations between 0 2 metres above sea level. Any change in the mean sea level, combined with the effects of storm surge associated with large storms or cyclones are likely to have dramatic consequences, especially for Ngoc Hien, Kien Hai and Phu Quoc Island. 9.2 Vulnerability to Climate Change Currently the Study Area has high exposure and low to moderate sensitivity to the potential impacts of climate change; however the magnitude of exposure, sensitivity, vulnerability and risk associated with 207 P a g e

95 these changes will change into the future, with a number of areas being assessed as highly vulnerable by 2050 as illustrated below Sea Level Rise & Storm Surge Sea level rise is expected to exacerbate coastal inundation, storm surge, erosion and other hazards potentially threatening infrastructure, settlements and facilities on the coastlines of both provinces, and the islands of Kien Hai and Phu Quoc. Ngoc Hien on the southern tip of the peninsular is especially vulnerable to inundation associated with storm surges during both dry season and wet season monsoons, and this will very likely threaten the long term development and viability of communities in that district. In addition, Rach Gia City, Ha Tien, Kien Luong and Ca Mau on the west coast are also threatened in terms of inundation from storm surge but to a lesser degree Increased Damage to Coastal Areas Increases in sea level, and the associated reduction in sediment transport and deposition patterns will lead to general and wide scale deterioration in coastal conditions, including lower levels of sedimentation on the east coast and an increase in coastal erosion on the west coast. Coastal Mangrove forests, already under threat from wide scale clearing will be exposed to increased erosion and reduced sediment supply. In addition to this it is likely that there will be a deterioration of beaches on Phu Quoc and other low set islands in the Kien Hai Island group. These could become a greater problem should climate changes result in unexpected changes in oceanic circulation patterns, local currents, wind direction and wave dynamics Risks to Population and People The provinces of Kien Giang and Ca Mau are home to approximately 2.94 million people, and have some of the highest population densities in the country. There is also a strong correlation between ethnicity and poverty on the study region. Whilst poverty is important in terms of resilience and adaptive capacity, the relatively low levels of poverty in the region would indicate that it is not a principal driver of vulnerability. The most important climate change hazards that potentially threaten the regional economy are: seal level rise, flooding and inundation, salinity, coastal erosion, and storm surge. The main pressures driving socio-economic vulnerability in the region are demographic trends, population growth that puts pressure on land and water use, limited space (available land) and poorly planned industrial development. The most severe socio-economic vulnerabilities relate to the combined effects of flooding, inundation and saline intrusion on agricultural lands and aquaculture lands - and the resulting impacts on livelihoods and GDP through loss of productivity from the major industry; processing of these products Vulnerability analysis The vulnerability analysis projected that by 2030 three districts, Rach Gia city, Chau Thanh and Ca Mau city will have higher comparative vulnerability in the population sector. By 2050 more districts become vulnerable as; more people migrate towards the largest urban centres; the area of districts that are impacted by climate change hazards increases, and the control measures currently in place fail. The most vulnerable districts with regard to population in 2050 are projected to be; Ca Mau city and Tran Van Thoi in Ca Mau and Rach Gia city and Chau Thanh in Kien Giang. Chau Thanh and Tran Van Thoi are located on the edge of the major urban centres and have attracted the less advantaged migrants 208 P a g e

96 that are unable to afford urban housing. These two districts have high numbers of poor and ethnic households and less access to health and education. In the population sector the vulnerability analysis projected that by 2030 two districts in Ca Mau; Dam Doi and Ngoc Hien and five out of fifteen districts in Kien Giang; Giong Rieng, An Minh, Hon Dat and Chau Thanh will have higher comparative vulnerability. By 2050 more districts become vulnerable as; population increases; the area of districts that are impacted by climate change hazards increases, and the control measures currently in place fail. The most vulnerable districts with regard to poverty in 2050 are projected to be; Doi and Ngoc Hien in Ca Mau and Chau Thanh in Kien Giang. The most vulnerable districts are those with; high numbers of poor and ethnic households; a low income, and limited availability of agricultural land which is often compounded by limited access to health and education Whilst all the indicators of poverty are important, in Kien Giang and Ca Mau the primary driver of poverty vulnerability proved to be access to land resources. As access to productive land is important for reducing rural poverty, the impacts of climate change on the productivity of land will further constrain efforts to combat rural poverty. In almost all districts limited space is either a problem now, or will be in the near future. In the Mekong delta pressure on space will increase dramatically in future, and this in turn will place unparalleled pressure on household livelihood systems and the regional economy in general. The adaptive capacity of Government authorities in both provinces in relation to climate change issues is relatively low, and despite a long history of disaster management response planning, regional sector and socioeconomic development planning includes scant reference to climate change adaptation measures. Therefore, effective climate change adaptation measures are required to enhance the physical and economic climate resilience of the region, and in particular to protect poor and rural households Risks to Agriculture and Livelihoods Primary industry is the major contributor to the economies of both provinces, and any increase in the negative impacts on the agricultural systems from flooding, inundation, salinity and coastal erosion and sedimentation will impact not only on the livelihoods of local people, but also on the regional and national economies. Agricultural activities are particularly susceptible to climate change impacts, and given the high percentage of people in the region working in agriculture this implies a higher level of socio-economic vulnerability than the national average. Both of the dominant agricultural farming and aquaculture systems in the study area appear to be the vulnerable to the harmful effects of climate change, especially the rice-based system Specific threats Increased temperature may result in decreased rice yields due to heat stress and decreased flowering potential. However, crop models incorporating CO2 fertilization predict increased yield provided irrigation requirements are met. The yields of sugar cane and maize are predicted to increase. Other fruit and vegetable crops may have decreased yields due to impacts on flowering/fruiting and/or changes in growth rates. For aquaculture, shrimp mortality may increase due to high water temperature, increase in disease levels and increased mortality in larvae production systems. Higher wet season rainfall and in particular higher intensity extreme events may reduce rice yields through inundation damage, or localised flooding damaging farm infrastructure. Aquaculture may experience a reduction in salinity leading to decreased growth rates and disease or localised flooding damaging pond infrastructure. And fisheries may see a reduction in estuarine or near shore salinity leading to dramatic changes in fish ecology and reduction in catch. Lower dry season rainfall may result in increased salinity in canals leading to reduced growth rates for aquaculture and reduced rice yields. A decreased capacity for irrigation will affect not only rice but other crops. 209 P a g e

97 A potential climate impact specific to the rice shrimp farming system is a reduced cropping window through delays in planting the rice crop (because of need for rain to flush out salts) and reduced yields due to end of season salinity damage. Irregular seasonal changes can cause poor water quality and shrimp stress and disease Vulnerability analysis The vulnerability analysis projected that by 2030 two districts, Han Dat and Tran Van Thoi will have higher comparative vulnerability in this sector. By 2050 as the area of districts that are impacted by climate change hazards increases (predominantly inundation) and the control measures currently in place fail more districts become vulnerable. The most vulnerable districts in Ca Mau are U Minh, Dam Doi and Tran Van Thoi. Eight districts in Kien Giang registered high vulnerability ratings (>18) in 2050: Hon Dat; Chau Thanh; Kien Luong; Giong Rieng; Go Quao; An Bien; An Minh and Rach Gia. All of these districts, with the exception of Rach Gia have high are highly dependent on water-reliant farming systems, and are highly exposed to river based flooding and inundation, while coastal districts Hon Dat; Chau Thanh; Kien Luong; An Bien; An Minh and Rach Gia are increasingly exposed to salinity and storm surge. The vulnerability of secondary industry and the services sectors to climate change on appear to be a lot lower than that for the primary industry sector. Climate change impacts to natural systems will have the most significant negative consequences for natural resource dependant poor people, and will play a major role in compounding existing socio-cultural and environmental challenges in the Delta, such as poverty, livelihoods and welfare. The pressure on land use and consequently on water demand will be higher and higher for agriculture development, especially rice crops and aquaculture. At the same time, fast expansion of industrial zones and urbanization will put more pressure to land availability Risks to Urban Settlements & Transport The urban settlement patterns on the Mekong Delta are fairly unique, and comprise of two the provincial centres of Rach Gia and Ca Mau and the 41 other provincial towns and district centres, primarily connected by an extensive and complex system of waterways and roads. The main drivers of vulnerability in relation to human settlements in the region are population growth and urbanisation, and the associated pressure on land and water use, limited space (available land) and migration. Almost all of the urban settlements, buildings and infrastructure on deltaic floodplain in Ca Mau and Kien Giang are sited along the coast, or along canals and river banks and are already exposed to flooding and inundation. This situation is likely to worsen into the future as a result of sea level rise, and will represent a significant challenge for regional sustainability and development into the future. The most important urban settlement vulnerabilities relate to the effects of flooding and inundation - and the resulting impacts on households and urban infrastructure and services, especially water supply and sanitation. Water transport is of crucial importance in both provinces as demonstrated by the disproportionately high volume of goods shipped out of the both provinces. Water transportation (rivers/canals) provides the natural comparative advantage of the Province as Inland waterways provide a cheap, all-weather and easily accessible network for all the population. However, significant investments in road network have been made in the last 10 in Ca Mau and Kien Giang in an integrated system of national, provincial and district level roads that service the main population centres. The region is also serviced by 3 domestic airports and there is a major border crossing to Cambodia near Ha Tien. The most important vulnerabilities for the transport sector relate to the combined effects of river based flooding and coastal inundation associated with sea level rise. 210 P a g e

98 Specific Threats Inundation threatens the inhabited Low lying urban areas. Roads, particularly the lower district and commune level roads that are overtopped will suffer surface damage and erosion and bridges will be exposed to structural. While waterway Navigation will still be viable, navigation may be compromised due to overtopping and damage to canal banks and structures, particularly transport interchanges. Urban and transport infrastructure is vulnerable to high water levels due to extreme rainfall events, higher tides due to sea level rise and river flooding. At high water levels the drainage network of pipes and culverts is unable to drain the runoff. This is also a problem with sewage disposal as septic tanks and direct outlet unable to drain due to high water levels. 8 districts in Ca Mau and 11 in Kien Giang rely on rainfall for recharging of water sources. Flood waters or saline water limit extraction times from surface water sources and can pollute uncapped groundwater wells. In Ca Mau City, new surface water sources from the east are being considered because of concerns about the quality and quantity of available groundwater: in Kien Giang the issue is finding/adapting surface water sources to ensure they have minimal and manageable salinity issues. Extreme rainfall events or river flooding will increase leachate run-off from Solid Waste Landfills. High temperatures will impact on vulnerable persons particularly in urban areas due to the heat island effect. They will also affect the surface and expansion joints on roads and bridges. Saline intrusion will have limited impacts, but will increase rusting of transport infrastructure such as bridges, jetties and control structures. Storm surge during strong monsoon conditions also threaten housing and transport infrastructure in the coastal urban centres of Ha Tien, Rach Gia, and Son Doc (Tran Van Thoi) and Cai Doi Vam (Phu Tan). Typhoons will cause the most widespread and intense damages with a large amount of people and infrastructure at risk. All of the smaller fishing villages along the entire coastline are also vulnerable to storm surge Vulnerability analysis The vulnerability analysis projected that by 2030 two districts, Rach Gia and Ha Tien will have higher comparative vulnerability in this sector. By 2050 more districts are projected to become vulnerable as; the area of districts that are impacted by climate change hazards increases (predominantly inundation and salinity); the number of urban inhabitants increases; the exposure of surface water resources to sea level rise increases; the complexity and extent of transport interchange infrastructure increases, and the control measures currently in place fail. All of Ca Mau is exposed to salinity in the dry season. The most vulnerable districts in Ca Mau are those where inundation is projected to impact an urban centre and a large proportion of roads. The most vulnerable districts (and the % of roads inundated) are; U Minh (51%), Cai Nuoc (85%) and Tran Van Thoi (85%). By 2050, Four districts in Kien Giang are projected to register high vulnerability ratings (>18) in the urban settlements and transport sector. The most vulnerable districts are those where; inundation and/or storm surge is projected to impact at least one urban centre and a large proportion of roads. The most vulnerable districts (and the % of roads inundated) are; Rach Gia (65%), Chau Thanh (85%), Kien Luong (87%) and Ha Tien (63%). Overall the socio economic resilience and adaptive capacity in the urban areas is considered to be relatively high, primarily due to higher levels of income, wealth and support services and infrastructure in comparison with rural populations. Whilst roads are usually considered to be highly vulnerable to SLR and only modest inundations may cause significant damages to a network, the actual designs of newly built or upgraded roads are based on flood records and local conditions - and National Roads are designed for 1 in 100 year floods and Provincial Roads for 1 in 50 year floods offering a high level of resilience. 211 P a g e

99 Transportation by water is generally less impacted by climate change and can be considered an allweather solution. It will therefore be important to ensure that the full inland waterway network remains intact and well maintained for transportation as well as for drainage/irrigation purposes. Interchanges between inland waterways and key protected roads should be developed in key locations and the government should assist by constructing all-weather, long lasting jetties/wharves. This will assist in the movement of people and goods in future. The increasing impacts into the future as a result of sea level rise, flooding and storm surge will represent a significant challenge for regional sustainability and development into the future. However the newly revised elevation levels and building codes which minimise the use of ground floors for habitation should go a long way to alleviating these issues. The move towards increased industrialisation will put more demands on both the land and water based transportation systems to ensure there is an efficient system to support processing and marketing of produce Risks to Industry and Energy The majority of industrial activities in the region relate to the processing of agricultural foods (primarily seafood food, ice making and rice processing). These factories are generally small scale, labour intensive and low value (in terms of capital investment). Capital intensive industry are limited in both provinces, however there are some substantial cement and boat building factories in the region, especially the Ha Tien area. Approximately 95% of Ca Mau and Kien Giang households are connected to Vietnam's national grid with a modern electricity distribution system. Whilst there are some locally installed generating capacity on Phu Quoc and offshore islands the mainland of both provinces are connected to the national grid via high voltage 110 kv and 500 kv transmission lines. In Ca Mau there is natural gas power station, using gas supplied from an offshore field via a 325 km pipeline. In addition a large ammonia urea plant is under construction as part of this complex. There are plans to install a thermal generation plant in Ha Tien. The most important vulnerabilities for the power sector relate to the combined effects of flooding and inundation and salinity on both the power generation and distribution systems. The power generation facilities in Ca Mau activities are particularly susceptible to the impacts associated with sea level rise, as they are all located on or adjacent to the coastal waterway system Specific threats Increased temperatures are not expected to have a large impact on this sector. Industrial and energy infrastructure is vulnerable to high water levels due to; extreme rainfall events; higher tides due to sea level rise, and river flooding. At high water levels electricity substations may go offline with knock on effects to other industries and plant can be damaged. Many industrial industries are built along waterways or in low lying areas and are exposed to inundation e.g. industrial zones, Cement production and brick making plants. Saline intrusion will have limited impacts, but will increase of salt corrosion of infrastructure and the power distribution system. Typhoons will cause the most widespread and intense damages with a large amount of infrastructure at risk. The 110 kv transmission backbone and the 22/ 12.7 kv and 220V local distribution systems are vulnerable to typhoons as are the offshore island diesel generators. Typhoon damage to substations and power lines will impact other industries, particularly the Ca Mau Gas Fired power fertiliser complex and the Kien Luong Cement production and brick making plants. There will also be implications for all other forms of industry and key industrial outputs such as ice would therefore be unavailable or far more costly to produce. 212 P a g e

100 Vulnerability analysis The vulnerability analysis projected that by 2030 only one district, Rach Gia will have higher comparative vulnerability in this sector. By 2050 more districts are projected to become vulnerable as; the area of districts that are impacted by climate change hazards increases (predominantly inundation and salinity); the number of people reliant on industry increases; the complexity and extent of power generation and supply increases, and the control measures currently in place fail. The most vulnerable districts are those with a large number of households that are highly dependent on local industry for employment or income, and are most exposed to SLR, flooding, inundation and extreme events. The most vulnerable districts are those where inundation is projected to impact industrial centres and a large proportion of power lines. All of Ca Mau is exposed to salinity, so the more vulnerable districts in Ca Mau (and the % of medium voltage power lines inundated) are; Ca Mau City (67%), Tran Van Thoi (85%), Phu Tan (66%), Thoi Binh(33%), Ngoc Hien (35%) and Dam Doi (45%). By 2050, Four districts in Kien Giang are projected to register high vulnerability ratings (>18) in the industry and energy sector. The most vulnerable districts are those where; inundation and/or storm surge is projected to impact at least one industrial centre and a large proportion of power lines. The most vulnerable districts (and the % of medium voltage power lines inundated) are; Tan Hiep (99%), An Minh (No medium voltage power lines but industries exposed to all three hazards), An Bien (84%), Kien Luong (98%), Giong Rieng (94%), Chau Tanh (91%), Hon Dat (100%) and Rach Gia city (94%). Overall the resilience and adaptive capacity of both the low intensity and capital intensive industries in the region are considered to be medium to high. Resilience and adaptive capacity are directly linked with income, profitability and the ability to invest in protection measures. The high profitability of some of these enterprises, combined with low capital investment requirement and short asset lifecycles creates the circumstances whereby they not only have time to adapt, but also have ample funding. In addition to this the majority of established factories and the new industrial zones are defensible at relatively low cost. However the costs of losses to production from flooding and inundation in any one year could potentially be very significant. Especially since the economy of both provinces is so reliant on agricultural activities whether directly (the actual rice or shrimp farming) or indirectly with up- or downstream activities such as feed supply, equipment, transport, processing and packaging industries. The risk of secondary impacts is also high. For example Ca Mau is the largest aquaculture processing province in Vietnam and accounts for approximately 70% of Vietnam's aquaculture production and exports. Future adaptation planning will need to focus on facilitating the growth of aquaculture in both provinces, and transitioning industrial production to be less reliant on agricultural production. However, there is ample opportunity to climate proof the current factories and enterprises to build resilience and enhance adaptive capacity Overall the resilience and adaptive capacity of both the power generation and transmission systems in the region are considered to be low to medium. The Ca Mau gas power/fertiliser complex is not particularly at risk of sea level rise in its remaining 20 year source life. Likewise the medium voltage (22/12.7 kv) and low voltage (380/220 V) electricity distribution system is relatively new and has a 12 / 15 year (salt water / fresh water) design economic life, and the high voltage systems (110 kv) have a 30 year economic life so should not too adversely affected through to 2030, and can be replaced by a more climate resilient system by Uncertainties & Unexpected Events Significant uncertainties remain in the science underlying our climate change projections and our assessment of climate change risks. It is possible that the Mekong will also face a number of unforeseen changes in the physical climate system (such as major changes in ocean circulations) or ecological impacts that may not be anticipated. Whilst further research would improve understanding the ability to project societal and ecosystem impacts, and provide the Mekong Delta communities with additional useful information about options for adaptation it should not occur at the expense of action 213 P a g e

101 on-ground now. The need to start now cannot be stress strongly enough, and given that the majority of successful adaptation options are consistent with best development practice, there is no need not wait for full information before acting. 9.3 Future Challenges This report provides background information on climate change impacts, vulnerability and risks within Kien Giang and Ca Mau provinces, and is intended to serve as a starting point for developing a range of projects suitable for implementation in Phase B of the project. However there are a range of other issues that were beyond the scope of the study that require further consideration, including: How can the results of current future studies of this nature (and especially the meteorological and climate modelling), be disseminated more effectively so that the information can be more readily available to others? This is an extremely important point for the Government of Vietnam to address. With a plethora of climate change studies being carried out by many different organizations in Vietnam, and especially on the Mekong Delta, how can future adaptation projects be coordinated so that work is not duplicated? Internal migration from rural areas to provincial centres or to the large cities, and the question of how climate change impact on this is a highly sensitive issue, which only the Government of Vietnam can address. How can existing networks and organizations be better used to improve cooperation on adaptation activities and enhance resilience. 9.4 Suggested Adaptation Themes This study has attempted to identify a range of sectoral adaptation themes for the target sectors: agriculture, industry, energy and transportation together with areas where non-structural adaptation options suitable for addressing social and natural system vulnerability, such as increasing institutional capacity or the role of local action and social capital in building resilience in human settlements, livelihoods and natural systems could be adopted. It must be noted that Part B of the project will focus on developing these idea further and on devising pilot projects and scaling up procedures. Adaptation Planning Workshops Participatory adaptation planning workshops were conducted in both provinces to identify and categorize locations and adaptation themes suitable for different provinces and districts. Participants in the work-shops included members from vulnerable districts and provincial officials. The results of the CVRA climate scenarios were played out to let district representatives and officials have a chance to assess the range of hazards, impacts, vulnerabilities and risks, as well as to identify different adaptation issues that need to be addressed at the local level. In the provincial adaptation planning workshops various areas where adaptation measures could be concentrated to improve sectoral resilience and sustainability were proposed. During the workshops, participants were organized into resource-based sector working groups. These working groups were tasked with evaluating climate impacts to their respective resource districts and areas based on the findings from the vulnerability and risk assessment and then asked to identify areas where adaptation measures might be needed for 2030 and 2050 planning timeframes. The results of the vulnerability assessment, together with the outputs of the regional workshops were used to develop a list of theme areas where it was considered that adaptation options should best be concentrated. For each theme area the priority locations are were also identified. Table 72 summarises 214 P a g e

102 the areas for adaptation capacity strengthening and the priority locations that are recommended for consideration for Part B of this Project. 215 P a g e

103 Table 72 - Recommended Adaptation themes. Priority sector Recommended Adaptation Themes Priority Locations Livelihoods & Poverty Agriculture & Aquaculture Water Resource Management Coastal Zone Management Urban & Regional Planning Transport Planning Industry & Energy Emergency Management Strengthening Rural Livelihoods in Kien Giang and Ca Mau (including fishing, irrigated agriculture and aquaculture systems, and transition areas). Climate Change Adaptation Options for Agriculture and Aquaculture Livelihoods Enhancement and Poverty Alleviation to Promote Community Resilience to Reduce Vulnerability in Kien Giang and Ca Mau Strengthening of Integrated Water Resource Planning, Protection and Management for the Ca Mau peninsula (including agricultural land use zonation and improvement programs for agriculture and aquaculture). Strengthening of Integrated Coastal Zone Planning, Protection and Management for Kien Giang and Ca Mau provinces (including sea dyke and mangrove restoration). Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Marine and Coastal Ecosystems and Wild Fisheries Development and Implementation of a Coastal Erosion and Sedimentation Monitoring Program Strengthening Institutional and Human Resource Management Capacity in Kien Giang and Ca Mau for Climate Change Adaptation Planning and Implementation (for the development of adaptation plans and programs at the provincial and district level in support of the NTP). Assessment of Climate Change Adaptation Options for Protection of Urban Settlements in Kien Giang and Ca Mau (including the development of flood control and drainage works to protect key infrastructure assets, buildings and lives). Review of the Transport Network and Infrastructure (roads and waterways) in Kien Giang and Ca Mau (complementary to the Mekong Delta Plan). Mainstreaming of Climate Adaptation Provisions into Industrial Development Zones and Development Control (including an awareness and education program for industry). Strengthening of Emergency Preparedness and Response Capacity for Extreme Events in Ngoc Hien, Phu Quoc and Tien Hai Districts (including coastal hazard mapping for the Phu Quoc and Kien Hai Island Groups and development control, relocation and resettlement provisions for Ngoc Hien). Provincial - but focusing on: U Minh; Dam Doi; Tran Van Thoi (in Ca Mau) and Hon Dat; Rach Gia; Chau Thanh; Kien Luong; Giong Rieng; Go Quao; An Bien; and An Minh (in Kien Giang). Ca Mau: U Minh; Dam Doi; Tran Van Thoi, and Ngoc Hien. Kien Giang: Hon Dat; Rach Gia; Chau Thanh; Kien Luong; Giong Rieng; Go Quao; An Bien; and An Minh Regional East and West coastlines and offshore islands of Phu Quoc and Tien Hai Regional Regional Provincial Cai Nuoc, Tran Van Thoi, Ca Mau. Chau Thanh, Kien Luong, Ha Tien and Rach Gia Regional Provincial but focusing on Dam Doi, Tran Van Thoi, Ca Mau, Chau Thanh, Hon Dat and Rach Gia Ngoc Hien, Phu Quoc and Tien Hai Districts 216 P a g e

104 10. References ADB (2007). Resettlement Planning Document. Resettlement Plan (Kien Giang) Draft Project Number: GMS Southern Coastal Corridor Project. January Prepared by the Socialist Republic of Viet Nam. Ministry of Transport. ADB, The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia: A Regional Review. Asian Development Bank, Manila. Adger, W. N. (1999). Social Vulnerability to Climate Change and Extremes in Coastal Vietnam. World Development Vol. 27, No. 2, 1999 Adger, W. N., Brooks, N., Kelly M., Bentham G., Agnew, M. and Eriksen, S. (2004). New Indicators of Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Technical Report; 7. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich, UK. ANRC 1997, Situation Report Typhoon Linda Vietnam The American National Red Cross. (accessed November 2011). Carew-Reid, J. (2007): Rapid Assessment of the Extent and Impact of Sea Level Rise in Viet Nam. International Centre for Environmental Management (ICEM), Brisbane, Australia. CCFSC (2001). Second National Strategy and Action Plan for Disaster Mitigation and Management in Viet Nam 2001 to Central Committee for Flood and Storm Control (CCFSC), Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Hanoi CM2 DEIA Revised report on DEIA for Ca Mau Power Plant Project (Part of DEIA for Ca Mau 2 Power Plant), CPMB RDCPSE-Final report, June 2006 Cutter, S.L., Barnes, L., Berry, M., Burton, C., Evans, E., Tate E. and Webb, J. (2008) A place-based model for understanding community resilience to natural disasters, Global Environmental Change 18, Dang, N.X. (2009). Rapid assessment of flora and terrestrial animals in Key Areas of the Kien Giang Biosphere Reserve. GTZ Conservation and Development of the Kien Giang Biosphere Reserve Project, Ha Noi. Duke, N., Wilson, N., Mackenzie, J., Nguyen, H. and Puller, D. (2010). Assessment of Mangrove Forests, Shoreline Condition and Feasibility for REDD in Kien Giang Province, Vietnam. GTZ Conservation and Development of the Kien Giang Biosphere Reserve Project, Ha Noi. FAO (2007). The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture, Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Haa, T. T. P., van Dijkb, H. and Bosmac, R. (2010). Livelihood opportunities and fishery management in Ca Mau, a coastal province of Vietnam. Proceedings of; Colorado Conference on Earth System Governance, May Colorado State University. Hao, N.V., Thuy, D.T., Loan, L.T.T., Phi, T.T., Phuoc, L.H., Duong, H.H.T., Corsin, F. and Chanratchakool, P. (1999). Presence of viral pathogens in wild shrimp species Ca Mau. Asian Fisheries Science, P a g e

105 IMHEN (2010a): Impacts of climate change on water resources and adaptation measures. Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment (IMHEN) and Danish International Development Agency (DANIDA). IMHEN (2010b): Sea level rise - scenarios and possible risk reduction in Vietnam. Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment (IMHEN) and Danish International Development Agency (DANIDA). IPCC (2007): Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.)], IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 pp. KGPPC/DARD (2011), Project of Restoration and Development of Coastal Protection Forests in Kien Giang Province Period , Kien Giang People s Committee Department of Agriculture And Rural Development, Rach Gia. Kharin, V. V., Zwiers, F. W., Zhang, X., & Hegerl, G. C. (2007). Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the IPCC Ensemble of Global Coupled Model Simulations. Journal of Climate, 20(8), Leach, M., Mearns, R. and Scoones, I. (1999). Environmental Entitlements: Dynamics and Institutions in Community-Based Natural Resource Management. World Development. 29 (no ). Li, Y. and Ye, W. (2011). Applicability of ensemble pattern scaling method on precipitation intensity indices at regional scale, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussion, 8, Mainuddin, M. (2011). Agricultural productivity and food security in the lower Mekong Basin: impacts of climate change and options for adaptation Presentation at the 1st Meeting of Climate Change Adaptation Demonstration Projects, July 2011, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. MONRE (2009a). Climate change, sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam. Vietnam Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE). MONRE (2009b). Guideline on Formulation of Action Plans to the Ministries and Localities to Respond to Climate Change. (Attached to the Official letter No. 3815/BTNMT- KTTVBDKH dated October 13th 2009 by MONRE). Hanoi, 2009 MONRE (2010): Vietnam's Second Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Vietnam Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE), Ha Noi. MONRE (2011): Climate change, sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam. Vietnam Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE). Moss, B Water pollution by agriculture. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 363, MRC (2010). State of the Basin Report 2010, Mekong River Commission, Vientiane, Lao PDR. Murphy, J. M., Sexton, D. M. H., Barnett, D. N., Jones, G. S., Webb, M. J., Collins, M., (2004). Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations. Nature, 430(7001), P a g e

106 Nhan, D. K., Nguyen Van Be, N.V. and Nguyen Hieu Trung, N.H. (2007). Water Use and Competition in the Mekong Delta, in Be, T. T., Sinh, B. T. and Miller, F., Challenges to Sustainable Development in the Mekong Delta: Regional and National Policy Issues and research Needs. The Sustainable Mekong Research Network, Bangkok, Thailand. O'Brien, K. L. and Leichenko, R. M Double Exposure: Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change Within the Context of Economic Globalization. Global Environmental Change 10, Preston, N & Clayton, H (2008). Rice-shrimp farming in the Mekong Delta: biophysical and socioeconomic issues. ACIAR, Canberra. Pretty, J. and Ward, H. (2001). Social Capital and the Environment. World Development. 29 (no. 2). World Dev. 32, Prime Minister (2011). PM Highlights Development Strategy for Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung article about major contents of the draft socio-economic development strategy for the period and the country s key tasks in dztimes.net Quynh, D.N. (Ed) (2010). Research on the Natural Condition and Environment for the Southwest Sea, Facilitate to the Economic development and National Security. Institute of Mechanism, Ha Noi. Smit B. and Wandel J. (2006) Adaptation, Adaptive Capacity and Vulnerability. Global Environmental Change 16(3), Tiempo. (2011). Typhoon Linda hits Vietnam (accessed November 2011). Turner, B. L. Roger E. Kasperson, R.E., Matsone, P.A., McCarthy, J.J., Corell, W.R., Christensen, L., Eckley, N., Kasperson, J.X., Amy Luers, A., Martello, M.L., Colin Polsky, C., Pulsipher, A. and Schiller, A. (2003). A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, vol. 100 no. 14. UNDP (2009) Gender and Climate Change Impacts in Viet Nam. UNDP, Ha Noi. VASEP 2011(b). Sea Food Export Reached US$ 5 billion. Volume 1, Issue 8. VASEP, Ha Noi. Vietnam Consultative Group (2010), Vietnam Development Report 2011; Natural Resources Management, Technical report, Vietnam Consultative Group Meeting, Hanoi. WAR, (2006). Eco-tourism development strategy of Phu Quoc National Park. Wildlife At Risk, Ha Noi. Wikipedia Tropical Storm Linda (1997) (accessed Nov 2011) World Bank (2007). Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Mekong Transport Infrastructure Development Project (MTIDP), Volume III EIA for Waterway Network Improvement Projects. World Bank/Ministry of Transport. Hanoi, March 2007 World Bank (2009). World Development Report Development and Climate Change. Background Note. Assessing Extreme Climate Hazards And Options For Risk 219 P a g e

107 Mitigation And Adaptation In The Developing World by Nicola Ranger, Robert Muir- Wood, and Satya Priya, Risk Management Solution (RMS), London, UK 2RMS India (RMSI), Noida, India. February World Bank (2010). The Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change, Vietnam. The World Bank, Washington. Yohe, G. and Tol, R.S.J. (2002). Indicators for social and economic coping capacity moving towards a working definition of adaptive capacity, Global Environmental Change, 12, P a g e

108 11. Appendices Appendix 1. Suggested Vulnerability Indicators as recommended by International Experts. Indicator Description Economic Indicators Population density Urban population Population at working age (% of total) Medical services (No. population / Doctors) Education. (Number of people / teachers) Agricultural activity Poverty GDP Agriculture and Livelihoods No. of Rural Households No. of Livelihood Streams No. of Employment Streams Employing > 10,000 or producing >250 Billion VND Average Annual GDP per Household Rice Crop Land per Person (ha) Aquaculture Land per Population density influences the number of people actually affected by climate change but a higher density generally implies that resources can be pooled for mitigating any adverse shocks. In other words, in areas with high population density the population is more likely to be less vulnerable to external shocks. In general urban populations seem to be more resilient to external shocks than those living in rural areas as they are more dependent on agriculture. Urbanization also implies resources to invest in adaptation options can be pooled and can be more efficiently used given the high concentration of people in an urban area. Gives an idea of how dynamic and mobile the workforce may be Climate change increases the likelihood of waterborne diseases and the availability of more and better medical services mitigates the population s vulnerability. Gives an idea of the level of education. A higher education level improves the ability to cope or to adapt Agricultural activities are susceptible to climate change impacts and vulnerable. The higher the percentage of people working in agriculture the higher its socioeconomic vulnerability. Poverty is a function of GDP and equality of its distribution. The higher the incidence of poverty the less likely people can afford to invest in adaptation measures. The higher the GDP per capita the higher the likelihood of investing in adaptation options and as a result the lower its socio-economic vulnerability Rural households are generally directly dependant on natural resources and tend to have lower incomes. Both factors that increase exposure to impacts A larger diversity of incomes increases the ability to cope with impacts or to adopt new strategies. Industries that have a large resource base are better able to cope with or adapt to climate change impacts. A larger variety of industries increases the likelihood that some income will still be generated despite impacts The higher the GDP per capita the higher the likelihood of investing in adaptation options and as a result the lower its vulnerability to single impacts A larger area of land increases income, and it increases the chance that part of a crop may not be affected A larger area of land increases income thereby decreasing vulnerability and 221 P a g e

109 Indicator Person (ha) Description Urban and Transport Indicators Population density (Persons/km 2) Urban Population (No.) Urban Households (No.) Urban Area (ha) Population Annual average growth rate (%) Urban settlements which flood (No.) Households affected by flood/salinity Poor Households (Numbers/ %) Water Supply Waste treatment Roads (Km) Length of navigable waterways (Km) Industry and Energy Indicators Labour source unemployment Labour source by activity (Number / %) Households reliant on Industry (No.) Average Annual GDP per Household contributed by Industry Households Connected to the National Grid (No.) Length of increases the scope for applying more sustainable aquaculture practices and diversity. Provides an idea of whether District has dispersed population or not. Lower density can be associated with limited service provision and remoteness. However, averages for Districts do not indicate locations of high or low densities. Indicates the number of people that will be affected by impacts on Urban areas. Indicates the number of household that will be affected by impacts on Urban areas. Gives an idea of the size of the areas that may be exposed to impacts Gives an idea of how popular the District is (includes migration) and potential economic strength Gives an idea of the current scale of the problem Gives an idea of the current scale of the problem Allows an insight into vulnerability through lack of income to deal with Climate issues (rebuild higher, move). Figures provide for locations of extreme poverty. A high level of piped water indicates an urban supply company and higher levels of safety/quality than individual/unsupervised sources. Adequate supply allows individuals to cope with impacts Access to safe waste treatment decreases vulnerability and improves the ability to bounce back from impacts Could be used to relate to vulnerability of persons in the event of disasters (e.g. typhoon). Could also be used to assess the physical vulnerability of roads in the District. Covers the main transport mode for many people/goods. As well as the location of much of the small industries and rural housing A higher number reduces the ability to cope with impacts Should give an indication of urban/rural activities. If we associate vulnerability more with rural locations/activities then gives some indication. Indicates the reliance on industry. A low input to household income means there is no alternative income if agriculture is affected. Indicates the contribution of industry to the local economy. A higher contribution indicates a move towards a more resilient economic structure Contributes to the ability to recover from impacts. E.g. pumping water, restarting industry etc. Indicates the amount of energy infrastructure that is potentially exposed to 222 P a g e

110 Indicator High/Medium Voltage Power Lines (Km) No. of Power Plants/High Voltage Substations Off-farm Income (%) Number of Factories Number of Different Industries Description impacts Indicates the amount of structures that are potentially exposed to impacts A larger diversity of incomes increases the ability to cope with impacts or to adopt new strategies. Indicates the amount of industry infrastructure that is potentially exposed to impacts A larger variety of industries increases the likelihood that income will still be generated. 223 P a g e

111 Appendix 2. Summary Climate Vulnerability Assessment Industry Assets Industry Exposure to climate hazards Adaptive capacity Elements Distribution Sensitive to? Why? How Sensitive? Shrimp, fish & fish meal processing Cement production brick making & 1-3 main sites per province 5 cement & 1 brick making plant in Kien Luong Dist., KG province Most districts Ice making plants Tourism Mainly Rach Gia & Phu Quoc General industry & handicrafts Sugar processing cane All urban centres & some districts One per province Flooding, typhoons Flooding, typhoons Flooding, typhoons High water levels High levels High levels water water Plants built on waterways and at low elevation. Shrimp ponds and fishing boats damaged in typhoons 2 largest cement plants built on/near sea access. All sites low lying. Minor Current None adjusted to current climate 10% - 25% Minor None 10% - 25% 25-50% All How assets could be adapted Raise sites, build berms, move Raise sites, build berms Flooding of plant sites, power cuts from typhoons Minor All All All Cope, raise sites, move River or marine flooding Moderate None 0% 10- Cope, raise sites, 10% 25% move Business interruption while water levels high Climate risk is mainly to sugar cane growing. Bigger risk from low sugar cane growing profitability Minor 50% 75% 75% Cope, raise sites, move Minor All All All Cope, raise sites, move Adaptive capacity High, as low asset values vs revenues High High Medium Medium Low 224 P a g e

112 Appendix 3. Summary Climate Vulnerability Assessment Energy Assets Energy systems Elements Distribution Sensitive to (in priority order)? Ca Mau gas-power-fertiliser One Typhoons, complex increased salinity, flooding 220kv and 500 KV lines and main substations inter connectors to national grid 110 kv high voltage transmission backbone 22/12.7 kv medium voltage distribution lines & pole transformers 400/220V three/single phase low voltage distribution to nearly all households Offshore island diesel generators and backup diesel generators in industrial plants Submarine cable to Phu Quoc kv AC One Province per 110/22kV substation in most districts Every district E very district Many districts From Ha Tien in Kien Giang Typhoons, flooding, increased salinity Typhoons, increased salinity, flooding Typhoons, increased salinity, flooding Typhoons, increased salinity, flooding Typhoons, flooding Typhoons Why? Substation offline with flooding. Typhoon causing physical damage to substations & export power lines. Increased salt corrosion. Typhoon physical damage to substations and power lines. Substations offline in flooding. Salt corrosion. Typhoon-physical damage to substation & power lines. Substations offline in flooding. Salt corrosion. Typhoon-physical damage to power lines. Salt and inundation reduce pole life. Typhoon-physical damage to substation & power lines. Substations offline in flooding. Salt corrosion. Typhoons knock out island power distribution systems. Typhoons knock out grid so backup plants have to operate - high diesel cost. Typhoons knock out 110kV land interconnection lines Exposure to climate hazards How sensitive? Current How assets could be adapted Minor All All Gas supply only Increase diesel stored on site. to is Upgrade substations/lines beyond Use better paints & complex life galvanized bolts etc Minor All All All Towers on higher concrete bases. Raise substations or add berms and pumps. Moderate All All All Towers on higher concrete bases. Raise substations or add berms and pumps High All Beyond current system life Very high All Beyond current system life Moderate All Beyond current system life Beyond current system life Beyond current system life Beyond current system life Poles in stronger gravel bases. Use salt resistant concrete. Poles in stronger gravel bases. Use salt resistant concrete. Add diesel storage. Strengthen distribution lines. Remove branches and trees near lines. Moderate 25% 25% 25% Strengthen 110kV land connections Adaptive Capacity High High High High High High High Cement Waste Heat Recovery power generation Sugar cane bagasse power generation Liquid fuels - diesel, petrol, LPG, jet fuel, etc Solid fuels coal, rice husks, wastes,for cement, wood, charcoal Rice husk export power generation Solar PV households island power grids Ha Tien #2 and Holcim plants One plant in ea province Distribution points in all districts Flooding Business interruption Minor All All Beyond limestone resource life Typhoons, flooding All districts Typhoons, high water levels Potential in each province Offshore islands /some remote areas Raise plant site or add berms & pumps Sugar cane crops damaged Minor All All All Move sugar cane growing area to higher ground. Move plant. Typhoons Damage to wholesale/retail distribution facilities / jetties Flooding, drought, salinity Typhoons Damage to distribution points and jetties. Flooding of rice husk stores. Drought-crop failure, salinity means rice cannot be grown Damage to panels from falling trees & flying debris Minor All All All Strengthen jetties and buildings. Raise store floor level Minor All All All Strengthen jetties and buildings. Raise store floor level. Minor All All All Move plant to higher ground or import rice husks Minor All All All Remove nearby branches/trees. Strengthen buildings, esp. roofs. High High High High High High 225 P a g e

113 Energy systems Elements Distribution Sensitive to (in priority order)? Biodigesters Concentrated Typhoons, livestock raising flooding areas Exposure to climate hazards Why? How sensitive? Current How assets could be adapted Flooding of digesters Minor All All All Raise height of feedstock entry point Adaptive Capacity Moderate 226 P a g e

114 Appendix 4. Extreme precipitation event analysis based on GCM daily data GCM outputs are still the most reliable source of information for future climate scenario projections. With more and more detailed GCM data becoming publicly available, including daily time series, it is now possible to pursue more advanced methods for daily extreme precipitation event analysis, which can be based on the finer temporal results. GCMs have relatively poor performance on simulating precipitation at a regional or local scale compared to the historical observed data. This has seriously limited the direct use of GCM precipitation time series in extreme precipitation event analysis. Dynamic downscaling improves the accuracy at finer scales but only to a limited extent. A major drawback of this method is its high computational demand for only one or two simulation outputs. This makes it very difficult for uncertainty analysis for different emission scenarios and different GCMs. A statistical downscaling technique provides a computationally efficient and hence cost-effective solution that can lead to improved accuracy of GCM results. The results can be used not only in the generation of precipitation time series, but also for the analysis of the possible changes to extreme precipitation events under different climate change scenarios. To date, scientific research has not produced a satisfactory method at a fine spatial scale that readily can be implemented for simulating daily precipitation, particularly for extreme analysis. Among the wide range of climate variables, precipitation extremes have attracted much research attention because of the potential disasters these may cause to human society and natural systems. Extreme precipitation events are projected to increase with climate change, even in areas where the total precipitation is projected to decrease (Meehl et al., 2007), since global warming will noticeably enhance the hydrological cycle at both global and local scales. In order to adequately assess the climate change impact on extreme precipitation events, the characteristics of GCM-simulated precipitation and its relationship with global warming need to be evaluated (Perkins et al., 2007; Alexandra and Arblaster, 2008). The evaluation of observed and modelled trends has shown that the confidence in GCM projected extremes of precipitation is much less than that of temperature (e.g. Kharin et al., 2007; Kiktev et al., 2007). In general, the magnitude of changes in precipitation extremes simulated by GCMs was found to have a linear relationship with the strength of GHG emissions or in proportion with the global warming trend (Alexander and Arblaster, 2009, Tebaldi et al., 2006), which is in alignment with the linear response theory of pattern scaling. On the other hand, given the current state of scientific understanding and the limitations of GCMs in simulating the complex climate system, a large ensemble of GCM simulations is more appropriate in climate change projections than using individual GCM simulation outputs, particularly if such projections will be used for impact assessments, because only large ensembles of GCM simulations, sampling the widest possible range of modelling uncertainties, can provide a reliable specification of the spread of possible regional changes (Murphy et al., 2004; Sorteberg and Kvamstø, 2006; Murphy et al., 2007; Räisänen, 2007). Simulations of extreme precipitation in GCMs cannot be expected to accurately reproduce observed absolute quantities or rates of change. The relatively coarse resolution of GCMs prevents the simulation of phenomena that manifest their intensity mainly at synoptic (i.e., regional) scales (Dai, 2006; Tebaldi et al., 2006). GCM-simulated extreme precipitation intensities are systemically much lower than the observed data (Dai, 2006; Kharin et al., 2007). In lieu of the above, we present the following method for analysing the climate change impact on extreme precipitation using daily GCM outputs at their original spatial resolution (Li and Ye, 2011). The steps of this method are listed below: 1. Build a General Extreme Value (GEV) distribution for one GCM baseline period ( or ) for daily data and calculate its extreme precipitation intensity values for 11 selected return periods (5,10, 20,30,50,100,150,200,300 year periods); 227 P a g e

115 2. Build GEV distribution for the above GCM based on its future daily data. There are two 20-year period and for 3 SRES scenarios A2, A1B and B1 available from the IPCC AR4 data archive. 3. Calculate the extreme precipitation intensity values for the 11 selected return periods as baseline period; 4. Calculate the difference in percentage of the extreme precipitation intensity values between baseline and each future period; 5. Calculate the annual global average mean temperature change between the future periods and the baseline for the above GCM; 6. Normalise the extreme precipitation changes by the linear least square regression method using the following equation: V ' ij m y 1 m T y 1 y V ( T ) y 2 yij ' V ij is the normalised change value for the grid cell(i) and return period (j); Vyij where is the change percentage for Ty for global mean temperature change for the future period y; m =6, the number of future sample periods used. With the use of bi-linear interpolation, a finer-scale change pattern of extreme precipitation is obtained at the required spatial resolution. By applying the change pattern generated from daily GCM data, it is possible to undertake an extreme precipitation event analysis for any region. 7. Build GEV distribution from historical gridded daily data of the Waikato region and calculate the extreme precipitation values for the selected return period ( 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200 years) ; 8. Extract the change pattern values from global change patterns generated in step 6 above; 9. Obtain the global average mean temperature change for the selected study time slices (2020, 2050, and 2100) and GHG emission scenarios (A1FI, A1B and B1) in mid climate sensitivity using the SimCLIM software. 10. Calculate the extreme precipitation values by manipulating the change patterns with global mean temperature using the following equation: P ( 1 /100 ) P0 P GMT1 Where, P 1 and P 0 are the future and baseline extreme precipitations, respectively; P is the change percentage generated from GCM data; and GMT (the scalar) is the change of global mean temperature increase in a future time slice. In summary, this method is an extension of the pattern scaling method to extreme event analysis. Research using the method for New Zealand and Australia extreme rainfall analysis has generated improved results that conform to other scientific research findings (Li and Ye, 2011). List of General Circulation Models used for this analysis. 228 P a g e

116 No. Originating Group(s), Country Model SimCLIM name Horizontal grid spacing(km) 1 Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, BCCR BCCRBCM2 ~175 Norway 2 Canadian Climate Centre, Canada CCCMA T47 CCCMA-31 ~250 3 Meteo-France, France CNRM CNRM-CM3 ~175 4 CSIRO, Australia CSIRO-MK3.5 CSIRO-35 ~175 5 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab, USA GFDL 2.0 GFDLCM20 ~200 6 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab, USA GFDL 2.1 GFDLCM21 ~200 7 Institute Pierre Simon Laplace, France IPSL IPSL-CM40 ~275 8 Centre for Climate Research, Japan MIROC-M MIROCMED ~250 9 Meteorological Institute of the MIUB-ECHO-G ECHO---G ~400 University of Bonn, Meteorological Research Institute of KMA, Germany/Korea 10 Max Planck Institute for meteorology MPI-ECHAM5 MPIECH-5 ~175 DKRZ, Germany 11 Meteorological Research Institute, MRI MRI-232A ~250 Japan 12 National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA NCAR-CCSM CCSM 30 ~125 References Alexander, L. V., & Arblaster, J. M. (2009). Assessing trends in observed and modelled climate extremes over Australia in relation to future projections. International Journal of Climatology, 29(3), /joc Dai, A. (2006). Precipitation Characteristics in Eighteen Coupled Climate Models. Journal of Climate, 19(18), doi: /jcli Kharin, V. V., Zwiers, F. W., Zhang, X., & Hegerl, G. C. (2007). Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the IPCC Ensemble of Global Coupled Model Simulations. Journal of Climate, 20(8), doi: /jcli Kiktev, D., Caesar, J., Alexander, L. V., Shiogama, H., & Collier, M. (2007). Comparison of observed and multimodeled trends in annual extremes of temperature and precipitation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34(10), L /2007gl Li, Y., Urich, P. B. (2011).Singapore Precipitation Analysis and Projected Climate Change. Report Commissioned by PUB, Singapore and CH2M Hill, USA. Li, Y. and Ye, W.( 2011). Applicability of ensemble pattern scaling method on precipitation intensity indices at regional scale, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussion, 8, , doi: /hessd Meehl GA, S. T., Collins WD, Friedlingstein P, Gaye AT, Gregory JM, Kitoh A, Knutti R, Murphy JM, Noda A, Raper SCB, Watterson IG, Weaver AJ and Zhao Z-C (2007). Global climate projections. In Climate Change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change In S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, T. M. && M. (Eds.) (Eds.): Cambridge, UK and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press. Murphy, J. M., Booth, B. B. B., Collins, M., Harris, G. R., Sexton, D. M. H., & Webb, M. J. (2007). A methodology for probabilistic predictions of regional climate change from 229 P a g e

117 perturbed physics ensembles. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 365(1857), /rsta Murphy, J. M., Sexton, D. M. H., Barnett, D. N., Jones, G. S., Webb, M. J., Collins, M., (2004). Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations. Nature, 430(7001), Perkins, S. E., Pitman, A. J., Holbrook, N. J., & McAneney, J. (2007). Evaluation of the AR4 Climate Models Simulated Daily Maximum Temperature, Minimum Temperature, and Precipitation over Australia Using Probability Density Functions. Journal of Climate, 20(17), Räisänen, J. (2007). How reliable are climate models? Tellus A, 59(1), /j x. Sorteberg, A., & Kvamstø, N. G. (2006). The effect of internal variability on anthropogenic climate projections. Tellus A, 58(5), /j x. Tebaldi, C., Hayhoe, K., Arblaster, J., & Meehl, G. (2006). Going to the Extremes. Climatic Change, 79(3), /s P a g e

118 Appendix 5. Details of Meetings with Province Officials Agriculture and Natural Environments Ca Mau DARD Mr. Tran Quoc Nam (Deputy Director of DARD) Water, Climate, Offshore Management Department Mr. Nguyen Huu Cam: (Head of Water resources) Mr Dang Quoc Nam (Specialist) Irrigation Management Department Mr. Nguyen Thanh Tung (Deputy Head of Irrigation Management Department) Rural water supply and hygienic sanitation centre Mr. Ly Minh Khoi (Director of Rural water supply and hygienic sanitation centre) 02 other staff of Rural water supply and hygienic sanitation centre Aquaculture Department Mr. Nguyen Van Trung (Deputy Director of Aquaculture Department) Mr. Quoc and Mr. Tan from Aquaculture Department. Agriculture and Aquaculture Promotion Department Mr. Tran Van Thuc (Director of Agriculture and Aquaculture Promotion Department) 02 other staff of Agriculture and Aquaculture promotion department Agriculture Department Mr. Tran Thanh Hoang (Deputy Head of Agriculture Division) Mr. Quach Minh Quoc (Head of Livestock Division) Forestry Department Mr. Dac (Head of Forestry Department) Mr. Thuan (Deputy Head of Planning Division) Mr. Hiep (Deputy Head of Technical Division) Mr. Loc (Head of Planning Division) Extension Department Mr Ngueyen Tran Thuc (Deputy Head of Promotion) Kien Giang DARD Mr Tinh (Head of DARD) Mr Tan (Head of Construction activities) 231 P a g e

119 Irrigation Management Department Mr Trung (Irrigation) Forestry Department Thanh (Forestry Section) Extension Department Mr Hung (Vice Director of Extension Centre) Staff in Planning and financing Staff in Agriculture and weather forecasting Staff in Livestock sector TA and planning DONRE Mrs Vo Thi Van (Vice Director DONRE, Director Kien Giang Env Protection Fund) Mr Tai (Water resources, meteorology and climate change) Mr Tran Hoang Thanh (Deputy Director, KG Env Protection Agency) Centre of Environment and Natural Resources Cuong (Director of Centre of Environment and Natural Resources) Mr Hung (Head of Informatics) Mr Nghia (Islands and Marine Resources) Urban Settlements and Transport Date Location Agency Contacts 10/3/11 Hanoi Urban Development Agency, Ministry of Construction Ms. Tran Thi Lan Anh & Ms. Le Hong Thuy, Urban Development Division. 14/3/11 Ca Mau Provincial People s Committee (PPC) 15/3/11 18/3/11 Ca Mau Provincial Department of Transport (DoT) 16/3/11 Ca Mau Provincial Department of Construction (DoC) 20/3/11 Ca Mau Provincial Department of Infrastructure (DoI) 21/3/11 Nam Can District 22/3/11 Tran Van Thoi District Division of Infrastructure & Economy Division of Infrastructure & Economy Members of PPC Mr. Tran Van Duyen Mr. Nguyen Huu Do Vice Director. Mr. Minh Head of Urban Development Management Division (UDMS). Ms. Thu Trang Vice head of UDMS. Mr. Kai Mr. Hai Vice Head Mr. Nghiep Vice head. in charge of Infrastructure and Urban planning. Mr. Hai staff in charge of Infrastructure and Power 232 P a g e

120 Date Location Agency Contacts 23/3/11 Ca Mau Ca Mau Water Supply, Sewerage & Urban Works One- Member Ltd Mr. Nguyen Chi Thanh, Director. Mr. Tan, Vice director of the new water supply factory 28/3/11 Rach Gia PPC Members of PPC 28/3/11 Rach Gia GIZ, office of Management of Natural Resources 29/3/11 Rach Gia City PDC Meeting Dr. Sharon Brown. Dr. Michael Russell. Members of PDC 29/3/11 Rach Gia Provincial DoC for Kien Giang Mr. KTS Ha Van Thanh Khuong, Mr Tu (Infrastructure), Mr. Tinh (Deputy Director ) 30/3/11 Rach Gia Provincial DoT for Kien Giang Mr. Duyen Vice Head, Planning. Mr. Phuc Staff, Technical Div. 31/3/11 Rach Gia Kien Giang Water Supply and Sanitation Company 5/4/11 Rach Gia Division of Infrastructure & Economy 6/4/11 Hon Dat District 7/4/11 Kien Luong District 7/4/11 Ha Tien District 9/4/11 Phu Quoc District 9/4/11 Phu Quoc District Division of Infrastructure & Economy Division of Infrastructure & Economy Division of Infrastructure & Economy PDC Meeting Division of Infrastructure & Economy Mr. Binh 1st Vice Director: Mr. Tam 2 nd Vice Director. Mr. Chau Head of Commercial Dept: Mr. Toan Head of Quality Control. Mr. Bui Van Day Head Mr Duong Vice Head Mr. Bang Vice Head Mr. Ngoc Head Members of PDC Mr Dung Vice Head 13/4/11 Rach Gia Provincial DoC for Kien Giang Mr. KTS Ha Van Thanh Khuong, Eng. Phep Do Van 15/4/11 Rach Gia Wrap-up meeting for both Provinces Members of PPC from Ca Mau and Kien Giang 1/7/11 Hanoi Urban Development Agency, Ministry of Construction Ms. Tran Thi Lan Anh, Urban Development Division. Socio-Economic Not given 233 P a g e

121 Industry and Energy 234 P a g e

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