H 2. Strategies for Transitioning to Low-carbon Freight Vehicles. Sustainable Transportation Energy Pathways (STEPS) Lew Fulton STEPS Director

Transcription

1 H 2 Sustainable Transportation Energy Pathways (STEPS) Strategies for Transitioning to Low-carbon Freight Vehicles NCST/STEPS Webinar 30 April 2015 Lew Fulton STEPS Director

2 New STEPS/NCST report due out May

3 STEPS is the leading global forum of low-carbon transportation stakeholders STEPS: Generate visions of fuel and vehicle futures grounded in technical and economic realities, a strong knowledge base for companies making long-term technology investments, and sophisticated analyses of future policies. The leading experts on modeling and analysis of alternative fuel transitions Preparing scientific analysis and convening policy and business decision makers Training next generation leaders in transportation and energy Fuel Cell Vehicle Modeling Program FCV Technology Hydrogen Pathways FCVs & H2 Fuel Pathway STEPS Fuel/Vehicle Pathway Analyses & Comparisons NextSTEPS Scenarios & Transition Strategies STEPS Critical Transition Dynamics 3

4 STEPS program issues white papers that answer critical questions on low carbon, alt. fuel transitions: How will/won t these transitions unfold? White Paper Draft Release Public Release Leaders Biofuels April May Lew Fulton, Nathan Parker, Steve Kaffka, Geoff Morrison Electric Vehicles May June Tom Turrentine, Ken Kurani Hydrogen June August Joan Ogden, Chris Yang, Mike Nicholas, Lew Fulton Natural Gas January February Amy Jaffe, Rosa Dominguez Low-carbon Freight April 2015 May 2015 Lew Fulton Integrative Scenarios for Low C Sustainable Futures CCS Joan Ogden, Lew Fulton, Sonia Yeh, Chris Yang Joan Ogden, Nils Johnson, Nathan Parker 4

5 Scope of talk: Truck characteristics, technology options, GHG reduction potential, costs Comparison across fuels, present and future 80-in-50 GHG scenarios for the US and California Policy implications 5

6 Research Team/Acknowledgments Lew Fulton Marshall Miller Many data inputs provided by Andrew Burke, Lin Zhu, Hengbeng Zhao TOP-HDV Model originally built by Ben Sharpe, who provided help in updating his model for the current study 6

7 EIA AEO 2015: truck energy use rising 7

8 Intent and Focus of Study Accept goal of 80% reductions in GHGs by 2050 in US and CA, apply goal to trucking sector Focus on advanced vehicles (driveline efficiency gains), new propulsion technologies (e.g. fuel cells) and very-low GHG fuels Outside scope of study Programs/policies to reduce VMT Intelligent Transportation Systems (e.g. automation, traffic management), ICT for logistics Biofuels Included biodiesel and renewable diesel Did not include RNG (currently studying potential), though recognize it s potential importance 8

9 BILL GALLONS DIESEL EQUIV BIL GALLONS DIESEL EQUIV Punchlines first what it could look like to achieve an 80% reduction in GHG in trucking... US biofuels use in Mixed case would be about a doubling of todays levels for all purposes and must provide at least 80% reductions in GHG compared to base fuel Hydrogen use in the ZEV case would be about twice U.S. production for all purposes and must be deeply decarbonized, e.g. from waste wind/solar power California (left axis) US (right axis) Hydrogen Electricity Natural gas Biofuels Diesel fuel High ZEV 2050 Mixed High ZEV 2050 Mixed 0 9

10 Trucking sector includes many different truck types Truck Type Description or example Average Mileage/year Relative fleet size Long haul Class 8 long distance travel Very high ~100,000 Medium Short haul Class 7,8 regional travel High ~50,000 Low Heavy-duty vocational Refuse truck Medium 20,000 30,000 Medium Medium-duty vocational Trash compactors, bucket trucks Medium 20,000 30,000 Medium Medium-duty urban Delivery trucks (UPS, FedEx) Medium 20,000 30,000 High Buses Transit buses, shuttles, coaches Medium ~30,000 Medium Heavy-duty vans and pickup trucks Class 2B and 3, > 8,500 lbs. GVWR Medium 20,000 30,000 Very high 10

11 and technologies/fuels Vehicle Technology Commercial status Efficiency, Range, and Vehicle Cost Barriers/issues Conventional diesel/gasoline Presently dominate all truck types (baseline technology) Relatively heavy emitters of GHGs Hybrid, plug-in hybrid LNG/CNG Fuel cell Battery electric Commercial in heavy-duty pickups and buses. Expected to play a significant role in all types Commercial in almost all types. Significant market in buses, MD urban. Extensively tested in buses and cars. Timeline for commercialization in other vehicle types could be years Near commercial in some applications, mainly medium duty urban Increase in efficiency Increased range Increased cost Similar or slight decrease in efficiency Likely decrease in range Near-term Increase in cost Large increase in efficiency Decreased range Increase in cost Large increase in efficiency Significant decrease in range Increase in cost Reduce GHGs but reductions are modest compared to fuel cell and electric At best, modest reductions in GHGs except with RNG. Infrastructure not fully mature. Hydrogen infrastructure lacking. Fuel cells will likely have a shorter life than diesel engines for the foreseeable future. Range of vehicle is short. Vehicles with significant annual mileage may not be able to adopt. Battery life may not last expected truck life.. 11

12 Trucks vary by efficiency and range New long-haul Heavy Duty trucks as an example Diesel Hybrid Diesel Diesel Max Tech LNG Fuel cell / LH MPG (diesel equiv) Gal/100 miles (own fuel units) Approximate fuel storage requirement (volumetric gals for 500 mile range) Sources: Burke and Zhu (2014), Zhou et al (2013), Calheat (2013) 12

13 How we estimated life-cycle costs We made estimates of vehicle/fuel costs only for long and short haul heavy-duty trucks Estimates for 2014 and (roughly) 2030 Assumed cost reductions as a function of R&D, scale, learning thus our 2030 cost numbers reflect these, if they don t happen costs would be higher Even near term costs assume high volume production for new technologies and fuels Costs are amortized over 15 years (with 15 years of fuel use) this could occur over multiple owners Societal discount rate 4% used We have only made point estimates but acknowledge a high degree of uncertainty/variability 13

14 Long-haul truck lifecycle costs: near term and long term Using a societal cost approach, fuel costs dominate 14

15 Short-haul HDT lifecycle costs Electrics possible but battery costs will be key 15

16 Fuel requirements and assumptions By 2030, much lower GHG feedstock production/fuel supply pathways must be well on their way to replacing current higher GHG pathways, with >80% reductions per unit of fuel by 2050 California has a significantly cleaner grid than the US average, so has a head start for both electricity and hydrogen decarbonization Hydrogen Electricity Biofuel % from natural gas reforming Average grid mix Mostly soy-based biodiesel 50% from NG, 50% from electrolysis from grid electricity Average grid mix, significantly decarbonized Renewable diesel, 50% from cellulosic pathways 100% from very low carbon electricity Grid must be almost completely decarbonized 100% very low GHG renewable diesel 16

17 CO2 emissions over HDT vehicle life Differences across technologies, fuels, duty cycles, years 17

18 CO2 costs applied over HDT vehicle life Shown with a $50/ton carbon value not a game changer 18

19 Truck scenarios using TOP-HDV Scenarios fleet stock, VMT by truck type through Modify sales of new technologies and fuels year by year to reach goals. Two paths ZEVs (FCs and BEVs) and biofuels/zev mix Benefits/issues ZEVs Significantly reduces both greenhouse gases and criteria pollutants (critical in CA) Vehicles initially expensive; for FCEVs no hydrogen infrastructure Requires electricity or hydrogen produced renewably (wind, solar) Biofuels/ZEV mix Does not require new vehicle (fuel is drop-in ready) Not clear how much low carbon biofuels are available (also more difficult to estimate actual carbon emissions) 19

20 80-in-50 ZEV Scenario Massive changes between 2030 and

21 Comparison of ZEV and Mixed paths (HD Trucks for CA shown here) ZEV scenario: FCEVs must dominate the market by 2035 Mixed Scenario: Lower ZEVs but advanced biofuels w/80% GHG reduction must reach very high blend share by

22 ZEV scenario sales must ramp up very quickly after

23 Punchlines revisited what it could look like to achieve an 80% reduction in GHG in trucking... BILL GALLONS DIESEL EQUIV BIL GALLONS DIESEL EQUIV Maximum vehicle efficiency improvement is a critical underpinning for fuel substitution, cuts fuel demand even in the face of rising truck travel Hydrogen, electricity and biofuels must themselves be deeply decarbonized by California (left axis) US (right axis) Hydrogen Electricity Natural gas Biofuels Diesel fuel High ZEV 2050 Mixed High ZEV 2050 Mixed 0 23

24 Truck policy and research implications National and CA efficiency/ghg standards will hopefully help offset truck travel growth to keep CO2 stable It would take major, rapid shifts in propulsion systems and fuels to hit an 80-in-50 target Do we need ZEV mandates for trucks? Fiscal measures a possible alternative More research: Truck buyer decisions and response to fiscal decisions vehicle choice modelling for trucks? Robustness analysis on both costs and GHG intensities is needed For CA, regional disaggregation would be useful which trucks are operating where? Bring in values of NOx/PM UC Davis spatial model of trucks in CA is in development Role of VMT reduction and efficiency via ICT, logistics, modal shift, etc. 24

25 Backup Slides 25

26 Truck technology costs are critical And future cost reductions are uncertain Purchase costs for long haul trucks, thousand US dollars Diesel Hybrid Natural Gas (LNG/CNG ) Biofuels Fuel Cell Electricity Long Haul / / NA NA Short Haul / / Sources: primarily Burke and Zhu (2014), Zhou et al (2013); and analysis undertaken for this paper 26

27 We built up costs using component analysis Diesel LNG Hybrid Fuel Cell BEV 2,014 2,030 2,014 2,030 2,014 2,030 2,014 2,030 2,014 2,030 Base truck ("glider") cost Long Haul 145, ,000 Short Haul 130, ,000 Component costs Fuel storage 1,000 1,000 32,684 18,158 1,000 1,000 23,331 11,666 Engine 9,000 9,000 20,000 10,000 9,000 9,000 Battery 7,500 3, , ,000 Fuel cell 26,250 16,450 Motor 7,000 5,600 24,000 19,200 24,000 19,200 Accessories 2,000 2,000 Total component cos 10,000 10,000 52,684 28,158 26,500 21,350 73,581 47, , ,200 Component cost markup 15,000 15,000 79,025 42,236 39,750 32, ,372 70, , ,800 (1.5x technology costs) Total Purchase Cost Long Haul 160, , , , , , , ,973 Short haul 145, , , , , , , , , ,800 Sources: primarily Burke and Zhu (2014), Zhou et al (2013); and analysis undertaken for this paper 27

28 With some heroic assumptions Cost per kw or kwh Characteristics Units Fuel Cell 35 kg 1167 kwh $/kwh 350 kw $/kw BEV 400 kwh $/kwh Hybrid 15 kwh $/kwh LNG 150 gallons 3632 kwh 9 5 $/kwh 28

29 Fuel cost assumptions are important Fuel Fuel cost per Projected Source/comments dge, circa 2014 cost, 2030 Diesel $3.45 $3.73 AEO 2014 Liquid natural gas (LNG) $2.75 $3.21 Based on UCD NG model estimates. Infrastructure must be built out and has Biodiesel (2014) Renewable diesel (2030) Liquid Hydrogen (LH2) from natural gas LH2 from electrolysis high near-term capital cost; $5.26 $3.87 NREL, 2013; near term oil-seed FAME biodiesel; long term drop-in fuel from cellulosic feedstorck with advanced process such as Fisher-Tropsch or upgraded pyrolysis oil $5.92 $4.39 LH2 derived from natural gas reforming, followed by liquefaction; $11.08 $6.97 Electrolysis: near term from electricity mix, long term with 50% renewables or waste hydrogen, followed by liquefaction Electricity $3.82 $4.07 EIA average U.S. retail price 29

30 What will it take to cut CO2 80% by 2050 for trucks? Baseline long haul: Hybrids and NG 30

31 Scenarios across all truck types Baseline: steady growth to 2050, hybrids and NG 31

32 Scenarios across all truck types Baseline GHG emissions decline slowly over time 32

33 Scenarios across all truck types 80-in-50 GHG emissions decline rapidly over time 33