Thermal Coal Services

Transcription

1 Thermal Coal Services Hong Kong London Sydney New York

2 Bridging the Gap Before making any strategic or financial decisions, seek our professional opinions on the geology, engineering, processing and performance of your individual operation(s). Our advice is rigorous, not generic market batch intelligence. Culturally, we are a firm of mining engineers, petroleum engineers, process engineers, software engineers and geologists. We come from an operational environment and visit resource projects. We are assisted by our economics group and, thus, we bridge the gap between market analysis and the work undertaken by consulting engineers. We are pioneers in fundamental grassroots research on mines, fields, plants and projects. Our granular site-by-site approach offers a unique and detailed industry insight, which we consider necessary in any technical industry. We operate two major global research centres within an integrated global footprint of regional offices.. Improve production and throughput Reduce site operating and capital costs Optimise your supply chain Increase return on invested capital

3 Our Method Our colleagues have an intimate knowledge of and passion for their respective industries, having both direct hands-on experience and technical qualifications. Our engineers and geologists periodically visit operations and producers in Asia, the Middle East, South America and Africa. In addition to this, we thoroughly track all of the available public information and technical journals. We initially look at the reserves and resources of a project the independent variables. This leads to the standard engineering method to assess the block flow model and the process flow circuits. Each process is individually costed based upon labour costs, fixed and mobile equipment costs, consumable costs, transport and depreciation. Our aim is to capture comprehensive technical information through deductive research, travel, experience and perseverance. Constantly updating new knowledge drives our operational understanding and, in aggregate, determines the global supply. To facilitate this big data gathering and site analysis, we utilise a sophisticated software research platform managed by a brilliant team of software engineers who have a solid understanding of engineering principles. This process drives our asset valuations and is linked to highly tailored (manipulable) valuation models. Exploration projects, mines, smelters, refineries, steel mills and oil fields can be directly and conveniently compared to determine financial return, risk, capital outlay and industry attractiveness. Select your project or site Briefing by AME Project valuation (NPV) Energy Steel and Bulks Base Metals Precious Metals Build your project Technical review Formal cost review (opex, capex)

4 Our Thermal Coal Research The thermal coal market is finally moving towards supply correction. Oversupply has been the persistent obstacle in the market since 2012, but with major producers indicating production cuts and mine idlings, this is starting to turn around. The market surplus is expected to fall in 2016, easing downward pressure on prices. India is expected to continue as the world s largest thermal coal importer, while protectionist moves and economic slowdown in China are expected to constrain thermal coal import demand. The effects of oversupply in the thermal coal market are forecast to wane in 2016, slightly easing downward pressure on thermal coal prices. Production cuts have helped lower the market surplus over 2015 and Notwithstanding expected solid growth in import demand from India, the outlook for thermal coal import demand is constrained by the slowing of China s economy, combined with its efforts to tackle pollution and protect its domestic coal sector. Moreover, even though the market surplus is still considerable, there are ample amounts of idled capacity that could be brought online in the event of higher demand. This will serve to limit any short-term upside to prices. AME estimates that Chinese thermal coal import demand will fall a further 5% in 2016, after dropping 32% in At the same time, India s import demand is now estimated to have grown by 8% in 2015, against our previous 14% growth forecast. AME now estimates that global thermal coal demand decreased by 4.9% in 2015 and will decrease a further 2.1% in Growth is expected to return in 2017, with a CAGR increase of 2.6% from by The global climate deal reached in Paris in December 2015 has limited implications for thermal coal demand in the short term, but it does add to the growing movement towards lower-emission energy sources. $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 Thermal Coal Daily Price $0 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Newcastle Thermal Coal 6300 GAR Spot Price (US$/t) Richards Bay Thermal Coal 6000 NAR Spot Price (US$/t) Kalimantan Thermal Coal 5000 GAR Spot Price (US$/t)

5 The Technical Approach Build Your Project in Direct You have a potential 25,000 tonne per day (ore and waste) base metals deposit in Peru, suitable for open-pit development. Will it work and what is it worth? Use our EVO model, designed especially for non-technical users. Reserve and resource assessment Assess mining method (use our defaults) Design the block flow (use our suggestions) Design the process flow Choose equipment, fixed and mobile (excavators, haul trucks, crushers, mills etc) Calculate operating and capital costs Calculate NPV Call our professional engineers and geologists Benchmark your project against all projects (global supply)

6 AME s Research Tools and Resources Mining/site data and production parameters are at the centre of what we do. It is our core, as these basic inputs are the fundamental variables that show the operational changes within the industry. To leverage this research, we offer the following separate products. Analytical Tools Research Resources Sniper Tool Valuation and cashflow modeller based on site-by-site inputs available in Excel M&A Tool Compilations of companies and individual assets Production Cost Modeller Ability to manipulate project and industry parameters Cost Curve Archive Historical site-by-site costs Engineering Site Modeller Site engineering models Supply Chain Tool Material flows through each production stage, port and transport route Bulla Tool Mapping and tenement assessment Equipment View Multi-segmented capex and opex equipment database Commodity Pricing Database Long time series data and indices Macroeconomics Module Comprehensive global industry data International Labour Database Historical and forecasts labour rates Shipping/Freight Database Transport costing and assessment Consumables Database Cost inputs for mines, fields and beneficiation plants Port Database Distances, costing and capacities

7 AME s Research Tools & Resources Dive into each site, project or industry with six steps using EVO Direct. Industry Compare the risk and return for each industry based upon site-specific research, and global supply and demand analysis. o Energy o Steel and raw materials o Base metals o Light metals o Precious metals Choose your site. o Determine your criteria o Benchmark your sites/projects against the entire industry o Create a ground floor scoping study with EVO Build your site. o Determine your production criteria. o Build your own project using our equipment database that drives AME s Engineering Model o Benchmark your project against the entire industry o Create a ground floor scoping study Technically review your project. o Based upon a scoping study format o Check the engineering logic, block flow and process flow o Technology based upon specific equipment manufacture (mobile and fixed) o Scenario analysis and modelling Project Cost. o Capex (capital cost) and opex (operating cost) o Benchmark these costs to similar operations o Scenario analysis Project Valuation. o NPV analysis via Direct or Excel spreadsheet o Transactional histories o Scenario analysis Opinions on your project or industry o Call our teams who have industry scars and experience o We will point out any errors of logic o Our advice is forthright and practical Hong Kong t: e: hk@amegroup.com London t: e: uk@amegroup.com Sydney t: e: ame@amegroup.com Toronto t: e: americas@amegroup.com