Low Carbon Grid Study Phase II Results

Transcription

1 Phase II Results CEERT Sacramento, CA February 2016 "This Power Point is a "master" presentation file that contains all of the slides that are used in formal presentations of the Phase II results. The file is edited depending on the length of the presentation and the audience. As new slides are developed, they will be added to this master presentation.

2 Participants Funders: 34 companies/trade associations; Energy Foundation; Energy Innovation; EIA Modelers: NREL; JBS Energy; GE Energy Consulting Peer Review: CAISO, CPUC, CEC, SCE, PG&E, SDG&E, SMUD, NV Energy, WIEB

3 Electric sector emissions (MMT) Carbon Emission Trajectories CARB emissions trajectory to 2050 CARB emissions trajectory to 2050 Baseline Baseline Case Case results Target GHG Case- Target Conventional Case results Target-Enhanced Accelerated Case (Phase I) Accelerated Case results (Phase I) 55% RE, BAU Case results Year

4 Phase I (Summer 2014) Summary Target Case achieved more than 50% reduction from 2012 actual electric sector CO2 emissions by A continuation of current policy only reaches a 20% reduction. 40 MMT CO2/yr are in the balance. Accelerated Case case demonstrates that this strategy is robust for achieving even deeper reductions. Trajectory puts another 15 MMT CO2/yr within reach. ~$55B investment plan from 2020 to 2030 (80% within CA) Essentially paid for by fuel and emission cost savings and increased efficiency. No discernable net rate impact from this aggressive policy.

5 Phase II vs. Phase I Peer review: Technical Review Committee, NREL/DOE Publications Review committee. Parametric: 23 scenarios/sensitivities, range of gas and carbon prices, range of renewable capital costs, range of economic conditions (cost of capital). Focus on impact of procurement of bulk renewables: EIM, DR, DG same in all cases. Based on TEPPC 2024 Common Case rather than 2020 Common Case

6 2030 vs 2015 WECC-wide EIM with day ahead market Includes robust CA BA trading No change in BA boundaries or reserve sharing Retired: One-third of coal fleet plus Diablo Canyon plus OTC gas fleet OTC retirements yields efficient/nimble gas fleet CHP settlement CA must-take gas burn cut in half Added flexibility Significant transmission added to WECC backbone West of Devers, Gates/Gregg, SWIP (s ID to s NV) Significant rooftop solar (7% of retail sales, 1/3 with storage) CPUC storage mandate buildout Gas price increase Aggressive electric vehicle program (3.3M vehicles)

7 Resource Portfolios by Energy Total Energy 323 TWh Incremental Energy 55 TWh Target 323 TWh 55 TWh High Solar

8 Resource Portfolios by Capacity Total Capacity Incremental Capacity 100 GW 12.6 GW Target High Solar 104 GW 16.8 GW

9 Conventional vs Enhanced Flexibility Case A: Conventional Flexibility Bucket Rule enforced hourly as modeled by proxy by CAISO. Hydro contribution to ancillary services frozen at 2013 levels. Current version of 25% Regional Generation Rule enforced. Case B: Enhanced Flexibility Bucket Rule enforced annually on portfolio basis. Hydro available for ancillary services at physical capability. 25% Rule met with non-combustion sources (no gas RMR). Added 2.2 GW of bulk storage (six hour).

10 Curtailment (MW) Curtailment of Renewable Energy A: 55% renewables, business as usual case: Solar PV dominates new procurement No additional bulk storage Continuation of today s operation policies B: 55% renewables, GHG target case: Balanced portfolio Additional bulk storage Economically rational imports and exports Renewables allowed to provide essential reliability services and flexibility Difference in Cases: B minus A CA Cost savings: $1.1 B/yr CA Carbon saved: 5 MMT/year Rest of WECC carbon saved: 2.5MMT/yr s of the Year

11 Results Summary w/ Low Solar CAPEX

12 Results Summary

13 Results Summary

14 Results Summary Case Net Cost (% of RevReq) CA Carbon (MMT/yr) Diverse/Enhanced 0.6% % RE Curtailment (%) High Solar/Enhanced 2.2% % Diverse/Conventional 2.3% % High Solar/Conventional 4.1% %

15 Target Case: Displaced Generation

16 Sources of Ancillary Services

17 Difficult Days Commitment/dispatch on three days: - Highest Ramp (winter) - Largest curtailment (spring) - Highest Load (summer)

18 MW MW Steepest Ramp Day Dispatch (Winter) Feb 8th: Target- Enhanced Feb 8th: High Solar- Conventional Storage DR,ScheduledEV Storage DR,ScheduledEV PhysicalImports PhysicalImports CAGasCommit CAGasCommit CAGasGen CAGasGen HydroGen HydroGen - () NetLoad - NetLoadBeforeCurtailment () NetLoad NetLoadBeforeCurtailm ent () ()

19 MW MW Steepest Ramp Day Dispatch (Winter) Load 40,000 40, Target- Enhanced High Solar- Conventional

20 MW MW Steepest Ramp Day Dispatch (Winter) Load Rooftop Solar 40,000 40, Target- Enhanced High Solar- Conventional

21 MW MW Steepest Ramp Day Dispatch (Winter) Load All Renewables 40,000 40, () () () () Target- Enhanced High Solar- Conventional

22 MW MW Steepest Ramp Day Dispatch (Winter) Load Renewables Imports 40,000 40, () () () () Target- Enhanced High Solar- Conventional

23 MW MW Steepest Ramp Day Dispatch (Winter) Load Renewables Imports Storage 40,000 40, () () () () Target- Enhanced High Solar- Conventional

24 MW MW Steepest Ramp Day Dispatch (Winter) Load Renewables Imports Storage DR 40,000 40, () () () () Target- Enhanced High Solar- Conventional

25 MW MW Steepest Ramp Day Dispatch (Winter) Load Renewables Imports Storage DR Hydro 40,000 40, () () () () Target- Enhanced High Solar- Conventional

26 MW MW Steepest Ramp Day Dispatch (Winter) 40,000 Curtailment: Net Renewables Imports Storage DR Hydro Gas 40, () () () () Target- Enhanced High Solar- Conventional

27 MW MW Highest Curtailment Day Dispatch (Spring) May 30th: Target- Enhanced May 30th: High Solar- Conventional Storage DR,ScheduledEV PhysicalImports Storage DR,ScheduledEV CAGasCommit PhysicalImports CAGasCommit CAGasGen HydroGen CAGasGen HydroGen NetLoad NetLoadBeforeCurtailment NetLoad - NetLoadBeforeCurtailment () () () ()

28 MW MW Highest Curtailment Day Dispatch (Spring) Load 40,000 40, Target- Enhanced High Solar- Conventional

29 MW MW Highest Curtailment Day Dispatch (Spring) Load Rooftop Solar 40,000 40, Target- Enhanced High Solar- Conventional

30 MW MW Highest Curtailment Day Dispatch (Spring) Load All Renewables 3 3 () () () () () () Target- Enhanced High Solar- Conventional

31 MW MW Highest Curtailment Day Dispatch (Spring) Load Renewables Imports 3 3 () () () () () () Target- Enhanced High Solar- Conventional

32 MW MW Highest Curtailment Day Dispatch (Spring) Load Renewables Imports Storage 3 3 () () () () () () Target- Enhanced High Solar- Conventional

33 MW MW Highest Curtailment Day Dispatch (Spring) Load Renewables Imports Storage DR 3 3 () () () () () () Target- Enhanced High Solar- Conventional

34 MW MW Highest Curtailment Day Dispatch (Spring) Load Renewables Imports Storage DR Hydro 3 3 () () () () () () Target- Enhanced High Solar- Conventional

35 MW MW Highest Curtailment Day Dispatch (Spring) Curtailment: Load Renewables Imports Storage DR Hydro Gas 3 3 () () () () () () Target- Enhanced High Solar- Conventional

36 MW Highest Load Day Dispatch (Summer) 60,000 Aug 18th: Target- Enhanced 50,000 40,000 Storage DR,ScheduledEV PhysicalImports CAGasCommit CAGasGen HydroGen NetLoad NetLoadBeforeCurtailment ()

37 Additional Sensitivity Results Aggressive WECC RE development has little impact on CA study metrics Major carbon reduction in rest of WECC Coal on the margin (low gas price/high carbon price) has little impact on CA study metrics Major carbon reduction in rest of WECC Impact of Drought: Higher curtailment in wet year Higher cost, higher carbon in dry year Similar ancillary service metrics in both.

38 Electric Sector Emissions (MMT) CARB Emission Trajectory to 2050 High Solar- Conventional Towards 2050: Carbon Emission Trajectories Year Baseline Case Target-Enhanced Accelerated Case (Phase I) Path to vs WECC-wide EIM with day ahead market Retired: One-third of coal fleet plus Diablo Canyon plus OTC gas fleet CHP settlement Significant transmission added to WECC backbone Significant rooftop solar (7% of retail sales, 1/3 with storage) CPUC storage mandate buildout Gas price increase Aggressive electric vehicle program (3.3M vehicles)

39 Electric Sector Emissions (MMT) Towards 2050: Carbon Emission Trajectories $55 billion investment to bring 33% RPS to 56% $12 billion investment to achieve maximum technical potential for energy efficiency w/ current technology (20 Twh/yr) Year CARB Emission Trajectory to 2050 Baseline Case High Solar- Conventional Target-Enhanced Accelerated Case (Phase I) Path to 2050

40 Electric Sector Emissions (MMT) Curtailment (MW) Towards 2050: Carbon Emission Trajectories High Solar Conventional: Solar PV dominates new procurement No additional bulk storage Continuation of today s operation policies CARB Emission Trajectory to 2050 High Solar- Conventional Year Baseline Case Target-Enhanced Accelerated Case (Phase I) Path to Enhanced Target: Balanced portfolio Additional bulk storage Economically rational imports and exports Renewables allowed to provide essential reliability services and flexibility s of the Year Difference in Cases: High Solar Conventional Target Enhanced Additional capital expenditure: $110 million/year Operating cost savings: $1.16 billion/year Carbon saved: 10 MMT/year

41 Electric Sector Emissions (MMT) Towards 2050: Carbon Emission Trajectories Carbon Intensity: 319 lb/mwh Post 2030 load growth: Electrification of both transportation and building sectors Year CARB Emission Trajectory to 2050 Baseline Case High Solar- Conventional Target-Enhanced Accelerated Case (Phase I) Path to 2050

42 Electric Sector Emissions (MMT) Towards 2050: Carbon Emission Trajectories With today s technology: Best Carbon Intensity: 183 lb/mwh Post 2030 load growth: Electrification of both transportation and building sectors Year CARB Emission Trajectory to 2050 Baseline Case High Solar- Conventional Target-Enhanced Accelerated Case (Phase I) Path to 2050

43 Electric Sector Emissions (MMT) Towards 2050: Carbon Emission Trajectories Non-commercial technologies and/or practices to achieve 2050 targets Year CARB Emission Trajectory to 2050 Baseline Case High Solar- Conventional Target-Enhanced Accelerated Case (Phase I) Path to 2050

44 Principal Conclusions I. Climate & Clean Energy Goals are Technically Feasible without significant rate impacts The California electric sector can reduce 40-50MM Tons/CO2 annually by 2030, a significant contribution to executive order B-30-15, for 40% below 1990 GHG levels. On the trajectory to meet long term goal of 80% reduction. Meets or exceeds a 50-60% RPS Accommodates a 50% reduction in commercial and industrial energy use in buildings Absorbs the increased energy load from a projected 3.3 MM electric vehicles II. Multiple Paths with Significantly Different Costs Conventional Flexibility measures present significant cost barriers to effective GHG reduction Enhanced Flexibility measures present low cost means to 2030 GHG reduction target as well as pathway to deeper reductions III. Critical Components of Enhanced Flexibility 1) Real time carbon accounting for dispatch, unit commitment as well as procurement and planning 2) Technologically and geographically diverse renewable energy portfolio including: grid-scale PV solar, rooftop solar, regional wind, geothermal, biomass, and concentrating solar power with thermal storage 3) Bulk storage benefits shared across multiple balancing authorities and utilities, including both new projects and an optimized, statewide use of existing non-iou pumped hydro 4) Essential reliability services provided by non-thermal resources including CSP w/ TES and the entire state hydro fleet 5) Strategic dispatch of natural gas resources, staggered quick starts to prevent idling, ramping 6) Increased flexibility in unbundled REC accounting, enabling optimal sub-hourly dispatch

45 Unfinished Business: Post Phase II Demand response, dispatchable load WECC wide RTO Market design issues