Fluctuating Renewable Energy Sources in a Long-term Climate Change Mitigation Strategy

Transcription

1 Fluctuating Renewable Energy Sources in a Long-term Climate Change Mitigation Strategy International Energy Workshop 2010, Stockholm Sylvie Ludig, Markus Haller, Nico Bauer Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Research Domain III Sustainable Solutions June 22, 2010

2 Overview 1 Motivation 2 Research Questions 3 The LIMES model 4 Results 5 Conclusions and Outlook Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 28

3 Overview 1 Motivation 2 Research Questions 3 The LIMES model 4 Results 5 Conclusions and Outlook Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 28

4 Representation of renewable energy sources in IAMs Scenarios for climate change mitigation Renewable energy sources as important mitigation option How can these large shares be integrated into the energy system? ReMIND Policy Case (2 target) Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 28

5 Overview 1 Motivation 2 Research Questions 3 The LIMES model 4 Results 5 Conclusions and Outlook Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 28

6 Research Questions Methodology Does the temporal resolution for short-term fluctuations chosen within the model affect long-term investment paths and mitigation costs? Energy Policy What are the integration costs when the amount of fluctuating renewable energy sources within the energy system is increased to reach decarbonization targets? Climate Policy In the context of climate change mitigation, what is the impact of integration costs of renewable energy sources on the overall mitigation costs? Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 28

7 Overview 1 Motivation 2 Research Questions 3 The LIMES model 4 Results 5 Conclusions and Outlook Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 28

8 The LIMES Model Long-term Investment Model for the Electricity Sector Based on Energy System of IAM ReMIND Minimization of total discounted energy system costs Social planner perspective with perfect foresight Higher technological detail to represent integration issues of renewable energy sources Higher temporal resolution to represent fluctuations Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 28

9 Focus on temporal variability Integration Options for RES Storage technologies Providing backup by conventional and biomass technologies Electricity transmission over long distances Demand Side Management Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 28

10 Focus on temporal variability Integration Options for RES Storage technologies Providing backup by conventional and biomass technologies Electricity transmission over long distances Demand Side Management Focus of this work: Time Time Slices Backup Storage Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 28

11 Model setting Time Slice Setups Experiment Name Number Seasons Time Slice Length 24h h 12h 8 4 day/night (12h each) 6h h 2h h Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 28

12 Time-slice Approach Share of variability not covered by setup Different Time Slice resolutions represent different shares of the overall variability Additional measures needed to deal with fluctuations Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 28

13 Backup Requirements Wind load change curve Capacity Deduction of necessary backup capacity cap(t, te) = rampte(te) ter(te) ( ) max drop(tau, te) cap(t, te) tau Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 28

14 Backup Requirements Wind load change curve Capacity Deduction of necessary backup capacity cap(t, te) = rampte(te) ter(te) ( ) max drop(tau, te) cap(t, te) tau Production Required electricity production for balancing seprod(t, te) rampte(te) ter(te) prodreq(tau, te) cap(t, te) Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 28

15 Model setting (2) Technologies and Setup Data from German TSO Vattenfall (publicly available) Demand Supply of wind Supply of solar energy Initially installed capacities 8 technologies: hard coal, lignite, gas turbine, oil turbine, NGCC, wind, solar energy (PV), nuclear energy Post-combustion CCS for hard coal, lignite and NGCC Oxyfuel CCS for hard coal and lignite 1 storage technology: pumped hydro Exogenous demand, increasing by 0.2% p.a. Ramping constraints Exogenous cost decrease for wind and PV Reference case, POL case with a cumulative emission budget of 0.5 GtC until 2150 (adapted from WBGU 2009) Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 28

16 Model Setting (3) Fossil Fuel Prices Region too small for use of extraction cost curves Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 28

17 Model Setting (3) Fossil Fuel Prices Region too small for use of extraction cost curves Exogenous path for fuel prices (oil, gas, coal) Numbers from German Lead Study on RE (Nitsch 2008) until 2050, then 2% increase p.a. Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 28

18 Model Setting (3) Fossil Fuel Prices Region too small for use of extraction cost curves Exogenous path for fuel prices (oil, gas, coal) Numbers from German Lead Study on RE (Nitsch 2008) until 2050, then 2% increase p.a. Additionally: cap on cumulative lignite extraction following DEBRIV 2009 Restriction to approved open cast mines Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 28

19 Overview 1 Motivation 2 Research Questions 3 The LIMES model 4 Results 5 Conclusions and Outlook Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 28

20 Electricity Production Reference Case 24h (4 Time Slices) 12h (8 Time Slices) 6h (16 Time Slices) 2h (48 Time Slices) Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 28

21 Shares in Electricity Production Reference Case Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 28

22 Electricity Production POL Case (Cap 0.5 GtC) 24h (4 Time Slices) 12h (8 Time Slices) 6h (16 Time Slices) 2h (48 Time Slices) Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 28

23 Shares in Electricity Production POL Case Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 28

24 Energy System Costs Time slices 24h 12h 6h 2h Reference Case POL Case Diff 12.5% 13.6% 11.4% 11.1% Table: Discounted energy system costs in billion$ Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 28

25 Wind Curtailment Percentage of Wind Curtailment for the 2h cases Reference Case POL Case Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 28

26 Must Run Constraint for Renewables (2h case) Reference RE dispatchable Reference Must Run Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 28

27 Must Run Constraint for Renewables (2h case) Reference RE dispatchable Reference Must Run POL RE dispatchable POL Must Run Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 28

28 Electricity Production with Storage (2h case) Reference no storage Reference storage Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 28

29 Electricity Production with Storage (2h case) Reference no storage Reference storage POL no storage POL storage Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 28

30 Electricity Production with Storage (POL Case) 2040 Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 28

31 Overview 1 Motivation 2 Research Questions 3 The LIMES model 4 Results 5 Conclusions and Outlook Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 28

32 Conclusions Increasing temporal resolution: Affects technology mix for electricity production Increasing ES costs but constant mitigation costs Curtailment of RE Must-run constraints lead to less RE in the electricity mix and to higher energy system costs Reassessment of feed-in priority policies should be considered Storage availability Storage allows for day/night shifting of electricity production Less natural gas needed Lower energy system costs Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 28

33 Next steps Introduce more regions and include electricity transmission Regional calibration: Vattenfall-area D Europe Clustering algorithm for better time slices Correlation analysis of fluctuations over larger areas Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 28

34 Thank you for your attention! Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 28

35 Overview Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 23

36 DEBRIV (2009). Braunkohle in Deutschland Profil eines Industriezweiges. Brochure. Bundesverband Braunkohle. url: http: //braunkohle.de/tools/download.php?filedata= pdf& filename=debriv_izb_ pdf&mimetype=application/pdf. Nitsch, Joachim (2008). Further development of the Strategy to increase the use of renewable energies within the context of the current climate protection goals of Germany and Europe. Lead Study German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU). url: application/pdf/leitstudie2008_en.pdf. WBGU (2009). Kassensturz für den Weltklimavertrag Der Budgetansatz. Sondergutachten. Wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderungen. url: Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 23

37 CCS On/Off With CCS Without CCS Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 23

38 Energy System Costs Time slices 2h 2h superpeak 2h storage 2h must-run 2h no ccs Reference Case POL Case Diff 11.1% 11.5% 13.4% 9.6% 21% Table: Discounted energy system costs in billion$ Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 23

39 Electricity Price Comparison Reference Case - no storage Reference Case - storage POL Case - no storage POL Case - storage Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 23

40 Electricity Production POL Case (Different Emission Budgets) 1 GtC 0.5 GtC 0.2 GtC Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 23

41 Electricity Production with Storage Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 23

42 Electricity Production with Storage Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 23

43 Installed Capacities Reference Case (no storage) 24h (4 Time Slices) 12h (8 Time Slices) 6h (16 Time Slices) 2h (48 Time Slices) Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 23

44 Installed Capacities POL Case (Cap 0.5 GtC)(no storage) 24h (4 Time Slices) 12h (8 Time Slices) 6h (16 Time Slices) 2h (48 Time Slices) Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 23

45 Installed Capacities Reference Case 24h (4 Time Slices) 12h (8 Time Slices) 6h (16 Time Slices) 2h (48 Time Slices) Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 23

46 Installed Capacities POL Case (Cap 0.5 GtC) 24h (4 Time Slices) 12h (8 Time Slices) 6h (16 Time Slices) 2h (48 Time Slices) Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 23

47 Shares in Electricity Production Reference Case Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 23

48 Shares in Electricity Production POL Case Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 23

49 Electricity Production with Storage Setup Reference Case/POL Case Wind Natural Gas Lignite 2h Reference Case 21.02% % 0.80% 2h pol 13.10% % 3.93% 6h Reference Case 16.08% % -0.13% 6h pol 10.71% % 0.11% 12h Reference Case 17.67% % -0.60% 12h pol 8.16% % 5.68% 24h Reference Case -0.01% 0.14% -0.02% 24h pol 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Table: Difference in technology share between storage and no storage cases Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 23

50 Wind Curtailment Electricity production from Wind (no storage case) Reference Case POL Case Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 23

51 Nuc On/Off Reference Case without Nuclear Fade Out POL Case without Nuclear Fade Out Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 23

52 The LIMES model Objective: Minimization of total discounted energy system costs C ESM,tot = ( CESM (t)e ρt) t Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 23

53 Ramping between time slices Technological constraints on increasing and reducing electricity production (Almost) No ramping abilities Lignite power plants Nuclear power plants Restricted ramping abilities Hard coal power plants Planned: Introduce a range of tolerable ramping for each technology Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 23

54 Time-slice Approach Concept Setups Classification of different sections of the year according to electricity demand Determination of mean demand and RE supply for each section seasons times of day 4 time slices: 4 seasons, 24h 8 time slices: 4 seasons, day and night 16 time slices: 4 seasons, 4 times of day 48 time slices: 4 seasons, 2 hour slices Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 23

55 Storage Technologies Short-term storage Storage from one time slice to the next within one day Parametrization as Redox-Flow Battery or Lead-Acid Battery Long(er)-term storage Weekly and/or seasonal storage Pumped hydro / CAES / H 2 -storage Only Pumped Hydro Storage implemented so far Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 23

56 Demand Side Management Implementation still subject to discussion Ideas: Load shifting (similar to storage) Price-elastic demand Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 23

57 Finding the answers Time Explicit modeling of short term fluctuation of supply and demand while maintaining long term perspective for investment decisions Space Modeling of short-term fluctuations through time slices Explicit modeling of spatial distribution of RE supply and electricity demand Modeling of spatial distribution through regions connected by transmission lines Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 23

58 Vattenfall control area Data Technology Investment Costs [$/kw] Fixed O&M Costs [% Inv. Cost] Variable O&M Costs [$/GJ] Initial Capacity [GW] Ramping Abilities PC medium PC+CCS none PC+Oxy none Lignite none Lignite+CCS none Lignite+Oxy none DOT yes NGT yes NGCC yes NGCC+CCS yes Wind PV Hydro yes TNR none PHS Sylvie Ludig et al.: Fluctuating RES in a Long-term Mitigation Strategy June 22, / 23