EU Energy Roadmap: Learning and intermittency. Johannes Bollen

Transcription

1 EU Energy Roadmap: Learning and intermittency Johannes Bollen

2 MERGE-CPB model Intertemporal Optimization Welfare 9 regions, Pareto-efficiency top-down production, bottom-up energy (vintages electricity) Fossil Fuel depletion LBD on all electric technologies Wind&Solar: replace limit shares with eqs. reflecting intermittency To be included: Biomassa + CCS Learning outside electric markets Learning-by-Research (LbR) perhaps Uncertainty on learning Add air pollution

3 Assumptions Wind and Solar Fluctuating sources (Heide et al., 211) - Balancing power: +1 GW Solar-pv+wind + about.2 GW hydro+gas+gas-ccs - Reservecapacity (no that important), see right % Reserve Capacity Solar-PV & Wind Add on costs solar-other : Import Sahara (27 km) + 1,9 ct\kwh Integrating wind + solar-pv into network (= transportcosts of 14 km) + 1, ct\kwh Market share (%)

4 EU energy roadmap + MIT1: muddling through ROW, MIT2: Global Action Levelized costs * (mills/ KWh) Other Costs ** (mills/ KWh) Floor Costs (mills/ KWh) Learning rates *** (%) Emission Coefficient (GtC/ TkWh) Current Nuclear Advanced Nuclear Current coal Current Oil Current Gas Coal-CCS gas-ccs Wind see later Solar-PV 174 see later Biomass Solar-Other Source: own calculations and Blanford et al. (29) * Levelized costs = non-energy costs + fuel costs (only coal, coal-ccs, biomass) + storage costs + transport costs ** Other costs = fuel costs due to production, extraction, taxes and pipeline transport + external premium only for CCS and nuclear) *** Learning rates based on IEA (21)

5 Global: Wind/Solar only in MIT2, seemingly LT limit 9 Tkwh MIT1: Supply Global Electricity 9 Tkwh MIT2: Supply Global Electricity hydro nuc - 1 nuc - adv oth - r gas - f gas - ccs coal - f coal - ccs wind solar - lc solar - hc biomass

6 Europe: Wind/Solar seemingly LT limit, CCS expands 8 Tkwh MIT1: Supply Electricity in Europe 8 Tkwh MIT2: Supply of Electricity in Europe hydro nuc - 1 nuc - adv oth - r gas - f gas - ccs coal - f coal - ccs wind solar - lc solar - hc biomass

7 From MIT2 to MIT1 interaction Decompose Interaction between Learning and Balancing Power Wind & Solar PV MIT1 MIT2-4% -2% % 2% 4% Changes in Cumulative Supply of Wind & Solar PV in (% compared supply of base case Mitigation scenario's) less learning more balancing power less learning, more balancing power base simulation gap = interaction

8 Conclusions - Solar and wind always accompanied by gas and hydro - In globalizing worlds diverse set of technologies - In Europe, up to 26 gas(ccs) expands, as to fit in wind&solar lc. After 26, gas(ccs) dissapears, and is consumed by ROW depresses wind and solar as well Coal-CCS and solar (not shown here) are swing technologies depending on the learning rate; before 25 these technologies are set in pace - But in fragmented action MIT1, coal-ccs becomes dominant - Without limitations, nuclear would expand

9 Optimal Air pollution policy 22-24: Start Learning Non-Electric, later in Electric markets 3 Energy in Europe Changes in Only Air policy compared to BAU gas non-electric 2 coal-non-electric EJ per year oil-non electric renewables learning-by-doing-non-electric learning-by-doing-electric coal - remaining - 2 gas -advanced combined cycle gas - remaining - 3 9

10 Only Air strategy yields significant global CO2 eq emission reductions! 3 Gt CO2 eq. World GHG emissions 1.5 Nordhaus =1 Global control rate BAU_MERGE-AIR BAU-Nordhaus Nordhaus Ai r control rate cumulative control rate Nordhaus 1

11 2 FL curves: Always R&D, but decline in all scenarios, of the single externality scenarios the Air Policy case stimulates RD the most 1,5% Uitgaven Global in de wereld Energy-RD aan (%GDP) O&O in energie (%BBP) 1,%,5%,% Business-As-Usual Only Air policy Climate/Air/Energy Security Pol. Basispad Eenzijdig Lucht Optimaal lucht/klimaat/e-voorzieningszekerheid 11 Only Climate policy Climate and Air Policy Energy Security Policy Eenzijdig Klimaat Gecombineerd Lucht en Klimaat Eenzijdig E-voorzieningszekerheid