The Eastern Vector of Russian Energy Strategy: Prospects of Russian Energy Resources Supply to the Markets of Asia Pacific Region

Transcription

1 Asian Pacific Energy Forum 2013 BUSINESS FORUM The Eastern Vector Russian Energy Strategy: Prospects Russian Energy Resources Supply to Markets Asia Pacific Region Boris Saneev Deputy Director ESI SB RAS Dmitry Sokolov Researcher, APERC Vladivostok, The Russian Federation May 29, 2013

2 What this presentation will show? Current state main indices Russia s energy sector The The Eastern vector -- a strategic direction in in Russia s energy development in in first first half half st st century Initial conditions, targets strategic directions in in energy development in in East Siberia Far Far East Russia Gas Gas Oil Oil Supply to to APR: Russian Perspectives Cooperation between Russia APR countries in in or energy areas Conclusions

3 1. Current state main indices Russia s energy sector

4 ROLE OF ENERGY SECTORIN THE ECONOMY OF RUSSIA Energy sector share, % Indices Years Industrial production volume Gross domestic product Tax proceeds to federal budget Export Investment in fixed assets

5 The Russia s Role in Ensuring Global Energy Security Russia holds 18.2% world s proved coal reserves, 21.4% its proved natural gas reserves, 5.3% its proved oil reserves, 14% its uranium ore reserves Russia produces (as 2012): - Coal million t - Oil million t - Natural gas billion m 3 Russia is largest exporter fuel energy products

6 EXPORT OF RUSSIAN ENERGY RESOURCES (2010) Electricity - 20 billion kwh (0.1 %) Coal million t ( %) Gas billion m 3 (21 %) Oil million t (13 %) 12 7 (%) (%) share share in in world world trade trade 12 7 (( %) %):: 12% 12% steaming coal coal share share in in world world trade trade 7% 7% coking coking coal coal share share in in world world trade trade Source: Fuel energy complex Russia in Reference analytical survey. М.: Source: Fuel energy complex Russia in Reference analytical survey. М.: Energiya, p. (in Russian) Energiya, p. (in Russian) 6

7 EXPORT OF FUEL AND ELECTRICITY FROM RUSSIA IN IN 2010 Fuel electricity Export, total Including export to APR countries Oil, mln. t (15.4%) Oil products, mln. t (8.9%) Gas, bln. m (6.7%) Coal, mln. t (24,1%) Electricity, bln. kwh (5.6%) 6

8 2.EASTERN VECTOR - A STRATEGIC DIRECTION IN RUSSIA S ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE 21 ST CENTURY 8

9 EASTERN VECTOR OF RUSSIA S ENERGY POLICY National interests Russia require intensification its mutually beneficial cooperation with Japan, China, Korea or East Asian countries Creation new energy centers in East Siberia Far East will increase energy security Russia, restore strengn broken fuel energy ties between regions solve many important federal, interregional regional problems Creation in East Russia in East Asian countries a developed energy infrastructure in form interstate gas oil pipelines transmission lines will decrease cost energy carriers, enhance reliability energy fuel supply to consumers in different countries make it easier to solve environmental problems Russia Russia needs needs a sound, sound, scientifically grounded strategy strategy for for economic energy energy cooperation with with East East Asian Asian countries. Eastern Eastern regions regions Russia Russia --East East Siberia Siberia Far Far East East --with with ir ir mighty mighty economic energy energy potentials underlie underlie implementation Russia s interests in in this this strategically important world world region region 9

10 EASTERN ENERGY POLICY AS AN INSTRUMENT FOR SOLVING URGENT PROBLEMS IN RUSSIA Eastern Eastern energy energy policy policy Russia, Russia, as as part part Eastern Eastern economic economic policy, policy, is is not not an an end end in in itself, itself, but but an an instrument instrument for for solving solving many many principally principally important important problems problems federal, federal, interregional interregional regional regional levels levels General General problems Social Social increase increase comfort, comfort, style, style, quality quality people s people s life life in in eastern eastern regions regions Russia Russia Political Political consolidation consolidation integration integration RF RF entities, entities, strengning strengning unity unity economic economic energy energy space space RF RF Geopolitical Geopolitical reinforcement reinforcement Russia s positions Russia s positions in in world world economic economic system, system, in in community community APR, APR, Central Central Norast Norast Asia Asia countries countries Economic Economic enhancement enhancement efficiency efficiency functioning functioning competitiveness competitiveness economy economy in in East East Russia, Russia, increase increase provision provision with with resources resources accessibility accessibility to to remote remote areas areas country, country, expansion expansion active active economic economic space space Russia, Russia, creation creation conditions conditions for for attraction attraction foreign foreign investments investments advanced advanced technologies, technologies, etc. etc. to to Russia Russia Energy Energy problems Improvement Improvement adaptability adaptability reliability reliability energy energy fuel fuel supply supply to to consumers consumers 2 2 Increase Increase energy energy environmental security environmental security country country regions regions Perfection Perfection territorial territorial production structure production structure Russia s Russia s energy energy sector sector particularly particularly in in its its eastern eastern regions regions Formation Formation transport transport energy energy infrastructure infrastructure in in Russia s Russia s East East oil oil gas gas pipeline pipeline systems, systems, transmission transmission lines lines creation creation common common transport transport energy energy space space in in Russia, Russia, etc. etc. 10

11 3. INITIAL CONDITIONS, TARGETS AND STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS IN ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN EAST SIBERIA AND THE FAR EAST 11

12 ROLE OF ENERGY SECTOR OF EAST SIBERIA AND THE FAR EAST IN IN RUSSIA (AS OF 2010) 12 12

13 Russia completed work on on preparation a large number policy documents determining strategic development economy energy in in East East country until until in in context energy cooperation between Russia EAST Asia Asia countries, such as as "Energy Strategy Russia until until 2030", "Program for for Creation in in East East Siberia Far Far East East a Unified System Gas Gas Production, Transport Supply with with Potential Gas Gas Export to to Markets China or APR APR Countries (Eastern Gas Gas Program), Strategy Socioeconomic Development Far Far East East Baikal region until until 2025", Strategy Socioeconomic Development Siberia until until 2020", Energy Development Strategy East East Siberia Far Far East East until until 2030","Program for for Development Oil Oil Refining Capacities in in East East Siberia Far Far East, etc. etc. These These documents suggest a considerable increase in in mutually beneficial supplies Russian energy energy resources to to markets China, China, Japan, Japan, Korea, Korea, or or East East Asian Asian countries. 13

14 Main projects (by ESI SB RAS) In In framework framework Energy Energy Strategy Strategy Russia Russia (ordered (ordered by by Ministry Ministry Energy Energy RF) RF) The strategy for energy development in East Siberia Far East until 2030 The study on prospects for electric power industry development in Russia until 2030 Ordered Ordered by by regional regional authorities authorities (Governments (Governments RF RF entities) entities)

15 TARGETS AND STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS IN ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN EAST SIBERIA AND THE FAR EAST In In coming years Russia will will be be unable to to intensively develop untouched territories East East Siberia Far Far East. Therefore, it it is is most important to to preserve strengn existing economic potential for for future development. This This can can be be achieved by by implementing so so called strategic scenario economic development in in se regions. The The strategic scenario economic development in in Eastern regions suggests that that ir ir economy should quantitatively qualitatively approach current level advanced European countries. The The rates economic growth in in considered regions should be be higher than than on on average for for Russia share se regions in in total total population number country should also also rise. rise. 15

16 2. 2. Energy development in in East Siberia Far East for considered time horizon will aim not only to to meet ir dem for energy carriers but also to to export Russian energy resources to to energy markets in in East Asian countries 16

17 Indices 2010 fact. Forecast Export, mln. tce., total including: POSSIBLE EXPORT OF ENERGY RESOURCES FROM RUSSIA Oil, mln. t Eastern direction Gas, bln. m Eastern direction Coal, mln. t Eastern direction Electricity, bln. kwh Eastern direction Source: Substantiating materials to The Energy Strategy Russia until 2030, Estimations author Source: Substantiating materials to The Energy Strategy Russia until 2030, Estimations author 17

18 4. GAS AND OIL SUPPLY TO APR: RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVES 18

19 PROSPECTIVE GAS PRODUCING CENTERS IN IN EAST SIBERIA AND THE FAR EAST Total Total reserves С 1 +С 1 +С billion billion m 3 3 Krasnoyarsk Krasnoyarsk center center reserves reserves С 1 +С 1 +С billion billion m 3 3 Yakutia Yakutia center center reserves reserves С 1 +С 1 +С billion billion m 3 3 Sakhalin Sakhalin center center reserves reserves С 1 +С 1 +С billion billion m 3 3 Irkutsk Irkutsk center center reserves reserves С 1 +С 1 +С billion billion m 3 3 Source: Program constructing a unified system gas production, transportation supply in East Siberia Far East taking into account potential gas export to markets China or APR countries (main provisions) JSC Gazprom, pp.

20 FACTOR 1 Russian oil natural gas resources become more more attractive in markets APR NEA countries as a result increasing investment or risks in Middle East 20

21 FACTOR 2 Oil natural gas markets for Russian consumers in East Russia will be relatively limited: Potentialities oil natural gas production are many times higher than domestic dems Reliability oil natural gas supplies from eastern regions Russia to APR NEA countries is is very high 21

22 FACTOR 3 Natural gas Siberian platform is is unique in in content helium ethane, which essentially increases its consumer value Natural gas Siberian platform contains more than 0.3% helium 5-7% ethane Helium reserves in in gas fields Siberian platform are estimated at at 8.6 billion m 3,, or above 30% world helium reserves In In future Russia can be world largest helium exporter 22

23 FACTOR 4 Natural gas Siberian platform is is unique in in content helium ethane, which essentially increases its consumer value Natural gas Siberian platform contains more than 0.3% helium 5-7% ethane Helium reserves in in gas fields Siberian platform are estimated at at 8.6 billion m 3,, or above 30% world helium reserves In In future Russia can be world largest helium exporter 16

24 FACTOR 5 At present necessity to deliver not only hydrocarbon resources, but products ir advanced processing with higher value added to international markets is is clearly recognized at at all levels in in Russia. For this purpose it it is is planned to increase in in eastern regions Russia output oil products create gaschemical industry, whose products are in in rar high dem in inrussia in in NEA countries 17

25 FACTOR 6 The Russian government, regional authorities companies have started largescale development energy resources in East country 18

26 PROSPECTS FOR NATURAL GAS SUPPLIES TO THE MARKET OF APR COUNTRIES Source: V.P. Timoshilov, FIEF

27 SCHEME OF OF THE THE MAIN OIL OIL PIPELINES IN IN THE THE EAST OF OF RF, RF, INCLUDING OIL OIL REFINING INFRASTRUCTURE The explored indicated reserves Evenki The explored AO south indicated reserves Krasnoyarsk Evenki AO krai 696 south million t. Crude Krasnoyarsk oil resources krai million million t/year t. Crude oil resources 45 million t/year The explored indicated reserves Irkutsk The explored oblast indicated Southwestern reserves Yakutia Irkutsk oblast 677 million t Southwestern Crude Yakutia oil resources 677 million 22 t million t/year Crude oil resources 22 million t/year Previous Route Oil field Oil Oil refinery field Existing Oil refinery Under Existing construction Laid Under construction Pipe Laid diameter Pipe diameter Oil field Oil field Oil refinery Oil refinery Oil shipment terminal Oil shipment terminal Pipelines Pipelines Existing Existing Under construction Under construction Laid Laid Pipe diameter Pipe diameter 26

28 5. COOPERATION BETWEEN RUSSIA AND ASIA PACIFIC COUNTRIES IN OTHER ENERGY AREAS 28

29 (1) Large-scale electricity export from East Siberia Far East 29

30 POTENTIAL DIRECTIONS OF CROSS-BORDER TRANSMISSION LINES TO NEA 30

31 POSSIBLE LARGE-SCALE ELECTRICITY EXPORT FROM RUSSIA TO CHINA (60-70 bln. kwh electricity in in ) 31

32 (2) Export Russia s coal

33 DISTRIBUTION OF PROVED COAL RESERVES OVER THE TERRITORY OF RUSSIAN FEDERATION Proved reserves, total bln. t (100 %)

34 RETROSPECTIVE DYNAMICS OF OF RUSSIAN COAL PRODUCTION AND AND EXPORT, MLN MLN T (IN (IN ROUND FIGURES) Index Year Production Export, total, including: Eastern direction, total including: Japan Republic Korea China India Ors For information: The supplies Russian coal to China from January to October 2012 made up 15 million t, including: by sea 12 million t, by railway 3 million t. Source: Saneev B.G., Sokolov D.A. Energy Prile Policy Energy Statistics Russian Federation // Energy Policy Statistics in Norast Asia. Country Report for Mongolia, Korea, Russia, China. / Working Group on Energy Planning Policy, Intergovernmental Collaborative Mechanism on Energy Cooperation in Norast Asia. Korea Energy Economics Institute, 2011

35 SCHEME OF RUSSIAN COAL TRANSPORTATION TO THE NEA MARKETS Year Year Mln. Mln. t t

36 6. CONCLUSIONS

37 I. I. Perspective energy development in in East Siberia Far East till 2030 requires huge investments. The estimated cost such a strategy is is $ billion, $ billion should be invested in in development oil gas production main oil gas pipelines (only for new energy enterprises). This strategy energy development in in East Siberia Far East will probably not be realized without attraction foreign investments. This is is specific feature Russia as a player in in energy markets NEA countries

38 II. II. FIVE REQUIREMENTS FOR FOR MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL COOPERATION IN IN THE THE FIELD OF OF ENERGY 1. Political will serious intentions participants to implement ent a specific energy project mutually beneficial for each country. 2. Coordination economic energy policy between central, regional authorities business countries in development t inter-country energy projects. 3. Comprehensive system estimation consequences (effects) o implementation large-scale interstate energy projects, particularly under high uncertainty future development, economic risks global challenges for countries, regions energy companies. 4. Generation mutually acceptable mechanisms for implementation interstate energy projects (organizational, economic, legal or mechanisms). 5. Development implementation interstate projects by international team ( at all stages: from feasibility study design works to ir realization).

39 THE NECESSITY TO TO ELABORATE AN AN INTEGRATED SCIENTIFICALLY GROUNDED STRATEGY OF OF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN IN THE NORTHEAST ASIA COUNTRIES TAKING INTO ACCOUNT IMPORT OF OF RUSSIAN ENERGY RESOURCES HAS BECOME URGENT III. Currently main outlines energy cooperation in in NEA NEA are are clear enough. The The resource base countries supplying energy resources energy markets consuming countries have been properly studied. Intensive attention should be be paid paid to to implementation mechanisms coordinated actions participants (countries, regions, companies) in in terms economic, legislative or initiatives aiming to to implement large-scale interstate energy projects. Energy companies ir ir research Institutions in in Russia in in NEA NEA countries should stimulate work in in this this direction in in order to to make an an appropriate contribution to to solution problem significant for for all all countries regions.

40 Thank you for your kind attention