OUTLINE Project purpose Product development cycle Phase 1: scoping Phase 2: conceptualisation Phase 3: design

Transcription

1 OUTLINE Project purpose Product development cycle Phase 1: scoping Phase 2: conceptualisation Phase 3: design - selection of modelling method - model formulation Reflection and future research direction

2 Our Project purpose is to develop and validate an M&S approach which: is suitable for modelling military workforce dynamics from cradle to grave, offers end users a decision-support mechanism which is intuitive to use and tailorable to any specific problem within the military workforce context.

3 Product development cycle phased approach multiple case studies

4 Project Phase1 Scoping (problem framing) Case study 1: RAN ET BTP (previous publications by the authors)

5 Project Phase 2 Conceptualisation Business Process Model Notation (BPMN) based The three RAN ET BTP variations as identified by Jnitova (2016) are as follows: Pre-2015, Current (2015) and Post-2016

6 Pre-2015 ET BTP Pipeline Variation

7 Post-2016 ET BTP Pipeline Variation

8 Project Phase 3 Design Selection of modelling methodology most suitable for our problem space Model formulation

9 Phase 3 Design: Selecting Modelling Methodology SD consideration Defining characteristic: stock-and-flow diagrams, feedback loops, delays, utilises aggregations and abstractions SD : is most suitable for high level organisational analysis; often used to support strategy development, analysis of policy options, and analysis of dynamic processes

10 Phase 3 Design: Selecting modelling methodology adding modularity BB based approach: associated concepts: Structure Design Patterns Building Blocks

11 Phase 3 Design: Selecting modelling methodology modular SD Modelling issues The modelling process is time consuming as models are built from scratch The modelling process starts with a priori structure. This limits experimentation to changing model parameters Models are difficult to understand especially by non-technical managers Models grow in complexity (i.e. both details and dynamic), which exert cognitive load on the modeller and end user Capabilities offered by a modular (BB) SD approach reusable and proven-to-work model building blocks or components to speed up the process, reduce the burden of model testing, and improves confidence in the model output Ability to assemble modelling building blocks to generate and run specific model instances. Ability to use domain-specific modelling components, that separate the end user from the inner model details Ability to use function-centered components may reduce the risk of adding unnecessary elements since each building block should add something to the overall model representation

12 Phase 3 Design Model formulation: Step 1: Identify key variables and rates Step 2: Capture and prioritise business rules Step 3: Draw an SD conceptual model

13 Step 1: Identify key variables and rates Variables a. Numbers of Recruits b. Instructor numbers/ hours c. Training components: types, number per year, duration, number of students per component; d. Position types (trainee/ junior ET Sailor positions); e. Policy inputs into RAN ET BTP step changes; f. Ranks, and g. Levels of confidence and satisfaction of the RAN ET BTP graduates Rates a. Failure rate b. Recruitment rate c. Separation rate d. Retention rate; and e. Waiting periods between the courses pipeline delays rate.

14 Step 2: Capturing and prioritising business rules The 'Business Rules' of the problem inform the architecture of the model. Examples: if a course attendee assignments remain incomplete after 30 days then a fail is assigned to that attendee. 'Course numbers' over time is a time state variable that must affect flow. Promotion. The inference being graduates are more likely to be promoted

15 Step 3: Draw a [modular] SD conceptual model Proposed preliminary BB set: Resource BB Training Component BB Streaming BB

16 Step 3 (continues) : BB Purpose / Input / Output BB Purpose Input Output to simulate resource (instructors, acquisition rates, resource availability/ facilities, equipment) availability in retirement rates, failure unavailability response to changes in the acquisition, rates and maintenance retirement, maintenance and failure rates processes Resource Availability Training Streaming to simulate training duration and successful completion rate in response to course actual duration, delays, sequencing and failure process to simulate the pipeline split into the parallel streams course duration, trainee numbers, failure rates, separation rates, sequencing and delays number of students ready to be streamed, streaming rates Course/training pipeline duration per student, and a number of successful students pipeline s parallel streams containing a desired/ not desired number of trainees

17 Our modular SD solution compared to currently used M&S Current situation Our solution Users M&S SMEs required All can do Training to use Practical use Specialised streams working together labour intensive requires SME usually one-off, not reusable, often specialised security considerations lack of sharing of outcomes from practical use One small course how to use the data library [Lego blocks principal] simple, intuitive mainstream generic, recyclable Does not require secure data to operate Shared well-structured libraries that are simple to update and maintain

18 Reflection and future research direction

19 ??? ANY QUESTIONS???