Future Submarine Through-life Support Cost Modelling in the Concept Phase. Nira Chamberlain CMath FIMA CSci Modelling and Simulation Capability Lead.

Transcription

1 Future Submarine Through-life Support Cost Modelling in the Concept Phase Nira Chamberlain CMath FIMA CSci Modelling and Simulation Capability Lead.

2 LSC Group LSC is a Consultancy and We work closely with clients Systems Integration services to enhance their decision- company making capabilities Our mission is to make enabling complex decision-making better decisions throughout informed, precise the asset and life cycle collaborative people across 4 key locations and numerous customer sites Defence market focus across Maritime, Air, Land & MoD centre

3 Modelling and Simulation roles LSC Groups Modelling and Simulation Lead Future Submarine Design for Minimum Cost Manager Concept phase investment appraisal through life cost studies for systems selection.

4 The Problem Most of the problems within the concept phase of a project are messy and complex, often entailing considerable uncertainty

5 The Challenge Because of the nature of the project the cost team were being asked Demonstration Phase style questions within the concept phase. It was widely believed that there is a relatively small window in which significant whole life cost savings can be engineered into the boat.

6 Window of Opportunity This is due to the well known fact that 75-80% of the cost of a product is determined during the design phase. Cumulative Life Cycle Cost Committed Costs Incurred Costs Concept Service Assessment Demonstration Manufacture In

7 Traditional Approach Wet finger in the air Cost estimates based on physical characteristics.

8 Issues with traditional approach In terms of Wet finger in the air The assumptions become the solution. A guess will always be replaced with a guess.

9 Issues with traditional approach In terms of cost estimating based on physical characteristics; finding significant cost deltas between the options proved to be problematic.

10 The Approach Recognise that we are being asked different questions Instead of bending the client to fit the model, we have to develop the model(s) to fit the client.

11 Modelling Philosophy A guess will always be replaced by a guess but a logical argument evolves

12 Guess Guess Guess Guess Concept Concept Concept Design Design Logical Argument Logical Argument Logical Argument Logical Argument

13 Addressing the Challenge:

14 Addressing the Challenge: What are the cost consequences of the design characteristics?

15 Logical Argument Based Model LABM uses advanced quantitative methods, modelling, problem structuring, analytical techniques to examine assumptions, facilitate an in - depth understanding and from this develop a practical solution which is transparent and challengeable.

16 Addressing the Challenge:

17 Another challenge What happens when the client ask about maintenance cost of a system that never existed on the previous platform?

18 Modelling Philosophy A guess will always be replaced by a guess but a logical argument evolves

19 Addressing the Challenge:

20 Addressing the Challenge:

21 Addressing the Challenge:

22 The challenge How can we relate cost to performance and requirement?

23 Case Study Demonstration:

24 Other Bespoken Cost Models 1. The Dynamical Probability Analysis Tool. Rapid fire but robust Monte-Carlo Simulation Tool. 2. The Spend to Save Model Measure the effectiveness of cost reduction strategies. 3. Heuristic Engineering Analysis Tool. Captures the Engineering Impact of costed solutions

25 Integrating models into a suite of tools LABM CPTO DPAT MM HEAT Simulation

26 Conclusion In the concept phase if the client ask you Through Life demonstration phase style of questions; it is better to adapt your model(s) to the client than trying to adapt the client to the models. A guess will always be replaced by a guess but a logical argument will always evolve.

27 References Requirements Planning GD Bowman CDRS hosting and support services Implementation Management