Snapshot at any time Peak Demand. Demand. Base Demand. Public Demand. Protective Demand. Internal Demand. Time. September 2015

Transcription

1 Demand Snapshot at any time Peak Demand Base Demand Public Demand Protective Demand Internal Demand Time Excellence in Policing Conference September 2015

2 The Project To understand demand To develop measures that will assist in predicting future demand on the Police Service To examine the related areas of capacity and supply of resources against demand and risk To look at capacity generation including productivity and efficiency of resourcing To contribute to the debate on whole system thinking and public value through authentic conversations with stakeholders, especially the public

3 Approach 3 Analysis of national data - England and Wales and typical force estimates Analysis of incident data from 4 forces Collating existing force analyses Bespoke data collection

4 Public demand 4 Traditional demand measures such as calls for service, incidents and crime have been falling over the last 10 years

5 So why do we feel so busy? 5 Police officer and staff numbers have also fallen More costly crimes have increased Crimes may be getting more complex Incidents involving vulnerable people may be increasing

6 Protective demand 6 Multi-Agency Public Protection Arrangements eligible offenders Multi-Agency Risk Assessment Conferences Vulnerable adult and children referral Child Protection Local policing MAPPA eligible offenders (as at March 2014)

7 Indicators of resilience 7 Confidence in local police Visibility of Police Officers and PCSOs Source: Crime Survey England and Wales

8 Toolkit for estimating demand 8 Aim: To develop standard and consistent methods or approaches to support the police service to fill gaps in knowledge around demand and the resources required to service those demands.

9 Resources 9 Force discussions Ongoing research Cost effectiveness Diagnostic Response workbook

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11 Your examples Understanding productivity of officers What are you doing? How can we measure consistently? How can we utilise technology?

12 Themes Public Protective Internal Understanding Demand Public Demand demand for services that come from the general public, including victims and offenders. Protective Demand This relates to more proactive and/or preventative work which the police are required to undertake Internal Demand this is core demand that exists within our organisation which is in the main self-generated

13 Deliverables Reference Group Common Understanding Guidance and Help Case Studies Narrative Recommendations

14 Work streams Setting the National Approach define the approach to allow consistent sharing of data; define key terms; understand the current landscape; propose options Predicting Demand (Demand Measurement, Analysis and Modelling) academic research; big data; develop models; linked on-going NPCC Committee work; on-going professional practice within and external; HMIC Productivity and Resourcing -Links demand, deployment and practices to purpose, function and role; Concepts of pressure, strain and occurrence density; Decision making based on threat, risk, harm and vulnerability; Administrative, Process and Waste demand; Skills; Use of technology / data gathering Demand Management and Capacity Generation -Role of Police in Society; Public Value; Whole System Thinking; Emerging issues; Demand Reduction; Prevention; Academic research e.g. LSE; Best Practice; Problem Solving; Leadership Skills/mentoring; Knowledge sharing and training; Resilience Local/Regional and National Communications and Engagement -Consistency of message; Stakeholder engagement; Briefings; Internal Communications strategy; External Communications strategy; Environmental scanning; Reference group; Advisory group

15 Reference Group 42 members Police (17 forces), College of Policing, Local Government, Home Office, HMIC, PCC, Academics 5 Sub Groups leading on each of the work streams mirror project Reporting to the NPCC Performance Management Committee Two meetings held work steams leads identified and working up delivery plans Use of POLKA

16 Emerging themes Appetite across the service Internal Demand Need it now Need to publicise Pulling many strands together complex Potentially huge!

17 Considerations.. Capacity Public Demand Protective Demand Internal demand How busy are our officers in all areas of our business How do we measure this How do we best utilise the capacity gained -egvia Systems More equitable distribution of risk, harm and threat across resources - one team Multiple access points into the Constabulary that need to be defined and measured (e.g. Neighbourhood Policing teams) Measure the kevel of engagement of our front line officers with the Community patrol plans, high visibility Impact of Public complaints Impact of partnership requests/demand in particular ambulance service, NHS premises and local authorities (egchildren s Social Care.) Pro-active and reactive operations - intelligence-led, Public Order, football Section 135 and 136 data -understanding the true picture of Mental Health, vulnerability and offending Intelligence demand - including covert policing, governance compliance and confidential intelligence development Administrative tasks creating unnecessary bureaucracy - s, meetings, database completion Duplicated/unnecessary processes Necessity for written products/ reports Crime recording processes/flows

18 Demand Management AS-IS Matrix Public Demand Engage with communities Intel provision Community led problem solving Process FOI / Public Access requests Receive 999 / 101 calls Receive Online Crime Reports On street discovery Schedule Appointment Receive arrest enquiries Grade incidents Manage dispatch / support / event Assign I/S/R grade (immediate / subsequent / by appointment deployment) Telephone investigation Give words of advice to VIW (nondeployment) Communicate between teams Attend scene Conduct initial enquiry / Interview VIW Question Suspect (if applicable) Preserve scene of incident Collect and preserve evidence (eg: CCTV) On street resolution Screen-In / Screen-Out & assign OIC Create Investigation Plan Collect further evidence Interview VIWs (ABE interview if applicable) Conduct further enquiries Review Investigation Plan Give grounds of arrest Give cautions Post arrest search Check cell availability Request transport Authorise dearrest or detention Explain rights / entitlement to prisoners Interview prisoners Take photo, fingerprints, DNA Obtain, check, record, store belongings / exhibits from prisoners Monitor cells & prisoner s welfare Transport prisoners to court Review evidence Obtain Duty Officer's decision Obtain CPS decision Give Bail Condition Release without charge (if applicable) Give Warning / Caution /PND (if applicable) Charge (if applicable) Prepare Case Pack to CPS Provide postcharge Witness Care Support Inform CPS dates to avoid Warn Police witnesses and Private witnesses to court Keep VIW informed Inform VIW of court verdict Enter VISOR / NOS (if applicable) File on division / archiving / storage Prevention Contact Deployment Initial Investigation Secondary Investigation Arrest Custody Case Disposal Prosecution Court Resulting Protective Demand Protect high-profile people & locations & public order Grip & Pace Proactive Neighbourhood Policing Conduct Stop and Search Use ANPR Predictive Policing Receive requests from other UK & foreign law enforcement agencies Find Wanted Persons Perform Mutual Aid Perform Public Order Hand over Wanted Persons to requesters Allegations as a result of Policing Activities in Protective Demand are the same as under Public Demand Prolific Offenders Pre-planned & Simultaneous Operations Capture Intel Manage Intel Create reports (electronic / paper) Update reports (electronic / paper) Provide Victim Care Conduct Risk Assessment Travelling Briefing Meeting Professional Development Job related fitness Promote diversity Internal Demand Manage HR (hire-to-retire / training / promotion / discipline) Manage Resources (finance, estate, catering, equipment, uniform, fleet, horses & dogs) Manage 3 rd party suppliers / providers Manage ICT Manage building and personnel security Manage Professional Standards Manage & Assure Performance Manage Health & Safety Support Leadership Manage Compliance Implement Strategy Implement Policy Manage Change Manage Partnership Follow Legal & Legislation Manage & mitigate Risks

19 Your examples Measuring Internal demand What are you doing? What opportunities have you identified? How can we be consistent?

20 Next Steps Letter to Chairs of Coordinating Committees Letter from NPCC to Forces Publicity Liaison with academics Collation of best practice on POLKA Generation of case studies Apps for data collection NPCC/APCC Conference