Facts and Figures Warehouse/Logistics Rhine-Main 2015

Transcription

1 Facts and Figures Warehouse/Logistics Rhine-Main 2015

2 Reliable information is imperative for the success of an enterprise. Quote from Christopher Columbus If you require any further information, please do not hesitate to contact us. We can put you in touch with our specialists who are always happy to provide you with expert support. We look forward to hearing from you! Dr. Konrad Kanzler Head of Research + 49 (0) konrad.kanzler@nai-apollo.de Michael Weyrauch Head of Industrial Letting and Transaction + 49 (0) michael.weyrauch@nai-apollo.de Tim Weißleder Senior Consultant Industrial Letting and Transaction + 49 (0) tim.weissleder@nai-apollo.de Lenny Lemler Co-Head of Investment + 49 (0) lenny.lemler@nai-apollo.de

3 Market Environment Population development Frankfurt/Rhine-Main 800, , , , , , , , Frankfurt Wiesbaden Mainz Darmstadt Offenbach Inhabitants (09/2015): Frankfurt 716,277 / Wiesbaden / Mainz 208,419 / Darmstadt 154,342 (04/15) / Offenbach 130, Sep. 15 Unemployment rate Frankfurt/Rhine-Main Frankfurt Wiesbaden Mainz Darmstadt Offenbach Deutschland / Germany Unemployment rate (12/2015): Frankfurt 6.4% / Wiesbaden 7.3% / Mainz 6.3% / Darmstadt 6.1% / Offenbach 10.1 / Germany 6.1% Source: Cities Frankfurt a.m., Wiesbaden, Mainz, Darmstadt, Offenbach Source: Federal Statistical Office, Federal Employment Agency Frankfurt/Rhine-Main remains on course for growth. In terms of demographic development, all major cities in the region experienced positive population development last year. Even though year-end figures are not yet available and disclosures are only based on provisional data, it is almost certain that the population of the five largest cities in the region alone exceeded 1.5 million inhabitants by the turn of the year. The economic factors for the region are equally positive. With the exception of Mainz and Wiesbaden, unemployment rates have fallen compared to the previous year. Frankfurt registered the biggest decrease, with a 0.5 percentage point decline between December 2014 and December 2015 to 6.4 % at present. This compares with a 0.3 percentage point reduction for Hesse as a whole. Purchasing power per capita Frankfurt/Rhine-Main 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Frankfurt Wiesbaden Mainz Darmstadt Offenbach Deutschland / Germany Purchasing power per capita (2015): Frankfurt 24,939 / Wiesbaden 24,184 / Mainz 23,631 / Darmstadt 23,549 / Offenbach 19,958 / Germany 21, Traffic situation Frankfurt/Rhein-Main Air traffic Rail traffic Highway traffic Frankfurt Airport is Europe s third-largest airport in terms of passengers (2015: 60.0 m) and its largest measured by freight volume (2015: 2.1 m tons). Frankfurt main station is the most important ICE-intersection in Germany. 632 local and long-distance trains, 1,100 suburban trains as well as 350,000 visitors and travellers per day. With five motorways centrally located within the German motorway network. Frankfurter Kreuz Germany s most highly frequented motorway intersection with approx. 335,000 vehicles per day. Source: GfK GeoMarkting GmbH The results of the recent business survey carried out in autumn 2015 by the Chamber of Industry and Commerce (IHK) for the Frankfurt am Main area were also encouraging. Some 48 % of all respondent companies rated their current business situation as good. Compared to the previous survey in the spring, this represented an increase of 3 percentage points. Among companies from the transport industry, 38 % rated their current situation as positive. This represented an increase of as much as 8 percentage points compared to the previous survey. However, 18 % of companies in this sector expect their business situation to worsen over the coming months. This is well above the average for all companies that responded to the survey (8%).

4 Market Data Take-up (lettings and owner occupation) Take-up (in thousend sqm) average take-up 10 years (486,000 sqm) Take-up according to unit size 2015 (in sqm) 250,000 8 Spaces Total: 629,000 sqm 24 Spaces 207, , , , Spaces 95 Spaces 90, , Spaces 83,000 73,000 50,000 0 < > The market for logistics and warehouse spaces in the Rhine-Main region again enjoyed a strong performance in Lessees and owner-occupiers accounted for a take-up of around 629,000 sqm. This is the second-best result in the past decade and raises the ten-year average by over 40,000 sqm to 486,000 sqm. The final quarter contributed a take-up of 127,000 sqm to the overall result, which, however, was the lowest quarterly figure for the past year. The main reason is the lack of large deals, which in previous quarters contributed to the positive market situation. All in all, large-scale deals in excess of 10,000 sqm generated turnover of 207,000 sqm through eight transactions. So this size category defended its top position. Take-up according to industry 2015 (in %) Transport, Warehouse & Logistics Trade Manufacturing Others & n/a Definition market area NAI apollo group defines the Frankfurt/Rhine-Main market area for logistics and warehouses as the relevant available logistics and warehouse space between the cities of Butzbach in the north and Worms in the south, as well as between Bingen in the west and Aschaffenburg in the east Source:: NAI apollo group Owner-occupier developments and lettings in project developments again increased their share of turnover to 15.9 % and 27.0 %, respectively, with their combined market share rising from 32.4 % in 2014 to just under 42.9 % in In the large-scale segment (over 10,000 sqm) alone, new construction projects accounted for five of the eight deals and a floor space of 157,000 sqm. Demand again came primarily from companies from the transportation, storage and logistics sector. They accounted for 46.7 % of take-up, down 5.1 percentage points in comparison to 2014, while industrial and production companies in particular saw growth of 7.7 percentage points to 17.7 %. The City of Frankfurt am Main forms the central point of the submarket described.

5 Market Data Development of rents Frankfurt/Rhine-Main Minimum rent (in Euro/sqm) Prime rent (in Euro/sqm) Selection of large current project development 2015 Erlensee sqm Construction of a production and logistics centre for packing manufacturer DS Smith Packaging Deutschland on the site of the former Erlensee air base. Weiterstadt sqm Ginsheim - Gustavsburg sqm Speculative construction of a warehouse and logistics park by VGP with expected completion in Q Construction of the "CENRA5LPARK" logistics centre by U.S. investment and development company Hillwood with expected completion in Q Selection of large completed developments 2015 Dieburg sqm Multi-user logistics centre of Fiege Group. Completion of the second building phase with around 45,000 sqm of storage space. Butzbach sqm Logistics centre for two retailers with 30,000 sqm and 13,000 sqm, respectively by Gazeley in MagnaPark Rhine-Main. Raunheim sqm Logistics centre by Dietz AG with 8,000 sqm pre-let to Kühne + Nagel. Stock Vacancy Take-up Prime rent Minimum rent $ % % % % Outlook next 12 months There were no major changes in terms of geographical distribution. As in previous years, demand focussed on the sub-markets of South-East (with a share of 28.0 %) and South-West (with a share of 22.5 %). However, the winner in 2015 was the WiesbadenMainz sub-market. With six transactions larger than 5,000 sqm, including two transactions in excess of 10,000 sqm, the market share attributable to these cities increased by 8.7 percentage points year-on-year to 12.4 %. For 2016 a stable development with turnover at the prior-year level is thereby significantly anticipated, exceeding the ten-year average of 486,000 sqm. Current enquiries suggest that large-scale transactions will take place, with retail and contract logistics companies continuing to show a high level of demand for modern space in excess of 40,000 sqm. As in the previous years, new construction projects for owner-occupiers and prelettings will again shape the market. A positive development for speculative new construction can be forecasted after the previous year saw the first signs of easing. Speculative projects in the large-scale segment are currently under construction in Bischofsheim (almost 19,000 sqm), GinsheimGustavsburg (approx. 32,000 sqm) and Weiterstadt (just under 40,000 sqm), as well as a high-quality business park in Langen with around 15,000 sqm of floor space.

6 Submarkets Submarkets and available logistics stock 2015 North-East /sqm North-West /sqm Frankfurt /sqm South-West /sqm East /sqm South-East /sqm Available logistics stock > 5,000 sqm 2015 Location Alzenau Bischofsheim Dietzenbach Frankfurt Friedrichsdorf Großostheim Hanau Kelsterbach Langenselbold Maintal Neu-Isenburg Offenbach Pfungstadt Raunheim Rodgau Local rent range ( /sqm) approx approx approx approx approx approx approx approx approx approx approx approx approx approx approx Wiesbaden/Mainz /sqm

7 Top 5 Key Facts Logistics strongholds Rental 18,6 price range Q ( /sqm) Existing stock New construction Berlin Dusseldorf Frankfurt/Rhine-Main Hamburg Munich Prime yields Q Prime office yields Prime retail yields Prime logistics yields Berlin 4.10 % 3.80 % 5.55 % Dusseldorf 4.35 % 3.85 % 5.45 % Frankfurt a. M % 3.85 % 5.40 % Hamburg 4.10 % 3.80 % 5.40 % Munich 3.75 % 3.45 % 5.25 % Total Ø = 4.10 % Ø = 3.75 % Ø = 5.40 % Frankfurt/Rhein-Main Top take-up 2015 Property + Location Tenant / owner occupier Utility area in sqm VGP Park / Rodgau Rhenus SE & Co. KG approx. 40,000 Ehemaliger Fliegerhorst / Erlensee DS Smith Packaging Deutschland approx. 40,000 Gewerbegebiet "West V" / Flörsheim SLL System Lager Logistik / Rigterink-Gruppe approx. 40,000 Wasserweg / Groß Gerau Trading company approx. 20,000 VGP Park / Rodgau Trading company approx. 19,000 Top investments 2015 Property + Location Purchaser Utility area in sqm Logistikpark "GG RheinMain" / Groß-Gerau AEW Europe "Logistis"-Fonds approx. 120,000 Bosch Zentrallager / Worms Aquila Capital / Samsung SRA Asset Management approx. 80,000 Gewerbepark / Liederbach Aurelis Real Estate GmbH & Co. KG approx. 32,500 Logistikimmobilie / Nieder-Olm Blackstone / LogiCor approx. 31,300 Hallen-/Büroflächen / Wiesbaden Palmira Capital Partners GmbH approx. 28,900

8 ONE PARTNER. ALL SERVICES. ALL ASSET CLASSES: OFFICE RETAIL LOGISTICS - RESIDENTIAL ASSET MANAGEMENT ACCOUNTING BUILDING MANAGEMENT PROJECT DEVELOPMENT VALUATION AND RESEARCH CORPORATE FINANCE ADVISORY CORPORATE REAL ESTATE SERVICES PROPERTY MANAGEMENT SALES LETTINGS YOUR PROPERTY PARTNER WE DISTINGUISH OURSELVES BY OWNER-MANAGED PARTNER ACTIVE IN DAY-TO-DAY BUSINESS MORE THAN 25 YEARS OF MARKET EXPERIENCE INDEPENDENT - INNOVATIVE - SOLUTION-ORIENTED LOCAL - NATIONAL - TOP NETWORK FLEXIBLE - CUSTOMER-FOCUSED - COMPETENT Copyright NAI apollo group, This report is for information purposes only. It was compiled with the utmost care and is based on information from sources that we regard as being reliable, but for which we assume no liability for their accuracy, completeness or correctness. Estimates, figures and forecasts contained in this document are for guidance only. This report does not pursue the aim of promoting the purchase or sale of a particular financial investment and thus should not be considered as such an offer. The reader of this report must make his or her own independent decisions in regards to correctness and completeness. The NAI apollo group assumes no liability for direct or indirect damage that arises through inaccuracies, omissions or errors in this report. We reserve the right to make changes and/or additions to the information contained therein at any time. Neither the report nor parts thereof may be published, reproduced or passed on without the written consent of the NAI apollo group. Cover picture: CBRE Global Investors Germany GmbH