Spot-market Rate Indexes: Truckload Transportation. Dr. Christopher Caplice

Transcription

1 Spot-market Rate Indexes: Truckload Transportation Author: Advisor: Sponsor: Andrew Bignell Dr. Christopher Caplice Coyote Logistics

2 An index is a statistical measure of changes over time in a representative set of data points.

3 LIBOR Scandal: The importance of index design Used as benchmark for: $10 trillion in loans $350 trillion in derivatives Manipulated by several banks from $2.6 billion in fines (so far) This dwarfs by orders of magnitude any financial scams in the history of the markets - Andrew Lo, Professor of Finance, MIT

4 U.S. Trucking Industry: The spot market is a small component 25.5 Private LTL TL-contract (estimated) TL-spot (estimated) Spot: Price is negotiated at (or near) the time of delivery

5 U.S. Trucking Industry: Basic spot-market structure Shipper Shipper Shipper Shipper Shipper Shipper Shipper Shipper Broker Carrier Carrier Carrier Carrier Carrier Carrier Carrier Carrier

6 Motivation Changes in spot-market rates experienced at Coyote have not tracked existing truckload transportation indexes. Accurate spot-market indexes could be useful for: Long-term, flexible contracts Derivatives Procurement planning and decision-making Plan Review indexes from other industries to determine the characteristics of sound indexes. Review indexes from the trucking industry. Make recommendations for improving and/or developing spot-market truckload indexes.

7 Characteristics of sound freight indexes: Part 1: Index calculation and data collection 1. Should be an accurate reflection of the real spot market 2. Should be rigorously computed and unbiased 3. Should be expressed in units familiar to the industry 4. Should be based on a sufficiently broad and balanced input 5. Should be transparent and simple 6. Should provide different levels of aggregated information in a clear and calculable hierarchy

8 Characteristics of sound freight indexes: Part 1: Index calculation and data collection 1. Should be an accurate reflection of the real spot market 2. Should be rigorously computed and unbiased 3. Should be expressed in units familiar to the industry 4. Should be based on a sufficiently broad and balanced input 5. Should be transparent and simple 6. Should provide different levels of aggregated information in a clear and calculable hierarchy

9 Characteristics of sound freight indexes: Part 1: Index calculation and data collection Baltic Dry Index Weightings: 25% each Baltic Supramax Index Baltic Capesize Baltic Handysize Baltic Panamax Weightings: % Route rate #1 Route Rate #2 Route Rate #3 Route Rate #4 Route Rate #5 Route Rate #6 Route Rate #7 e.g. 52,000 dwt carrying grain from US gulf to Ned. Route Rate #8

10 Characteristics of sound freight indexes: Part 2: Index management 7. Should be published regularly and frequently 8. Should be audited and monitored by an independent body 9. Should have proper procedures for dealing with complaints 10. Should be low-cost 11. Should be supported by the major participants in the market 12. Should have procedures for updating and adjusting components or index structure as market conditions change

11 Line-haul rates (October 2010 = 100) Truckload Indexes Oct Sept 2012 Stephens Freight Index

12 Line-haul rates (October 2010 = 100) Truckload Indexes Oct Sept 2012 Cass Line-haul Rate Index Stephens Freight Index

13 Line-haul rates (October 2010 = 100) Truckload Indexes Oct Sept 2012 Cass Line-haul Rate Index DAT Spot Van Rates Stephens Freight Index

14 Line-haul rates (October 2010 = 100) Truckload Indexes Oct Sept 2012 Cass Line-haul Rate Index DAT Spot Van Rates Stephens Freight Index Coyote Logistics

15 Line-haul rates (October 2010 = 100) Truckload Indexes Oct Sept 2012 DAT Spot Van Rates Coyote Logistics

16 Possible explanation: Geographic Distribution

17 Possible explanation: Tender Lead Time

18 Approach: Examine rate behavior in different geographies in the US. Corridor 1 origin region to 1 destination region miles in diameter 8,400 corridors with volume 5.2% of corridors account for 50% of dollars spent Selected 10 corridors that represented high-volumes and various regions Examine the relationship between tender lead time and rates

19 3-Oct-10 3-Nov-10 3-Dec-10 3-Jan-11 3-Feb-11 3-Mar-11 3-Apr-11 3-May-11 3-Jun-11 3-Jul-11 3-Aug-11 3-Sep-11 3-Oct-11 3-Nov-11 3-Dec-11 3-Jan-12 3-Feb-12 3-Mar-12 3-Apr-12 3-May-12 3-Jun-12 3-Jul-12 3-Aug-12 3-Sep-12 Weekly average line-haul rate ($/mile) Average weekly rates - by corridor Corridor 1 Corridor 2 Corridor 3 Corridor 4 Corridor 5 Corridor 6 Corridor 7 Corridor 8 Corridor 9 Corridor 10 0

20 3-Oct-10 3-Nov-10 3-Dec-10 3-Jan-11 3-Feb-11 3-Mar-11 3-Apr-11 3-May-11 3-Jun-11 3-Jul-11 3-Aug-11 3-Sep-11 3-Oct-11 3-Nov-11 3-Dec-11 3-Jan-12 3-Feb-12 3-Mar-12 3-Apr-12 3-May-12 3-Jun-12 3-Jul-12 3-Aug-12 3-Sep-12 Weekly average line-haul rate (lane average = 100) Rate stability - by corridor Corridor Corridor

21 3-Oct-10 3-Nov-10 3-Dec-10 3-Jan-11 3-Feb-11 3-Mar-11 3-Apr-11 3-May-11 3-Jun-11 3-Jul-11 3-Aug-11 3-Sep-11 3-Oct-11 3-Nov-11 3-Dec-11 3-Jan-12 3-Feb-12 3-Mar-12 3-Apr-12 3-May-12 3-Jun-12 3-Jul-12 3-Aug-12 3-Sep-12 Weekly average line-haul rate (lane average = 100) Seasonal patterns by corridor Corridor Corridor

22 Annual rate change - by corridor 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% % %

23 Conclusion #1 To be useful, a spot market index should measure each corridor independently.

24 Relationship between lead time and rate High rate premium for same-day pick-ups Beyond 3 days, rates are stable

25 Impact of lead time by season During peak seasons, same-day loads had higher rate premiums than during slower seasons. 30% % difference between same-day and next-day rates 25% 20% 15% Peak Low 10% 5% 0% Corridor 6 Corridor 9 Corridor 2 Corridor 10 Corridor 5

26 Conclusion #2 To be useful, a spot market index should specify a lead time.

27 Ongoing challenges

28 Ongoing challenges

29 Key Findings Indexes should provide information at different levels of aggregation Corridors, regional, national, etc. DAT uses this approach An index of spot-market truckload transportation should specify a lead time No existing indexes do this Indexes can only provide partial understanding of rates Each transaction has a set of unique characteristics

30 individual experiences may vary

31 Thank you! Q & A