Trade Report. Maersk Group. Containerized cargo growth slowdowns, but is expected to pick up as the TPP comes into force MEXICO FIRST QUARTER 2016

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1 Maersk Group Trade Report FIRST QUARTER 2016 MEXICO Containerized cargo growth slowdowns, but is expected to pick up as the TPP comes into force Despite the weak peso, exporters do not seem to have been encouraged to diversify into new markets and continue to focus on trade with the United States. As the Trans-Pacific Partnership comes into force, it will provide access to new markets with more than 800 million people There was ups and downs in container movements to and from Mexico during the first quarter of 2016, with imports growing by 8% and exports declining by 1% in late March, resulting in a total trade increase of 5%. The shutdown of factories during Chinese New Year explains fluctuations in imports in the first quarter. As for exports, usually the first and the third quarters are good indicators of how the market will perform in the year ahead. The first quarter is a particularly relevant indicator, since buyers in Mexico need to look for ways to outpace the market, meaning strong purchasing is a good signal for the remainder of the year. On the other hand, the weakening of the Peso does not seem to have prompted exporters to look for new markets and the focus continues almost exclusively on the United States. Mexican exports to the US fell by 2.2%, according to figures from the Bank of Mexico, while total exports fell by 3.8%, and the country s exposure to the United States increased rather than decreased. This suggests that Mexican exporters and producers struggled to PAGE 1

2 find ways to take advantage of new opportunities with customers in new markets. The Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) provides an opportunity to diversify. Failure to do so, could result in other nations, who are actively trying to access the US, catching up with Mexico. The opportunities are there for everyone. Both for Mexican exporters, as well as exporters from other TPP members. With freer access to the US, more competition will likely come on the scene, says Mario Veraldo, CEO of Maersk Line in Mexico and Central America. Traffic to Ensenada The growth of container imports to Ensenada was lower than the growth of imports to other Pacific ports. The Ensenada market has now begun to stabilize and is growing modestly below Lazaro Cardenas and Manzanillo. Ensenada has been able to maintain most of the volume that it gained from Los Angeles and Long Beach in the past year. In fact, it has even managed to grow it. That being said, it will be challenged to keep growing at the pace it has in recent years, since the market now sees Ensenada as a genuine alternative for entry to the US. As such, the port will need to work diligently to maintain the market that it took from the US. Source: AMANAC Exports Export performance was disappointing, although the decline in container movement was less so. Non-oil exports decreased 3% to Europe, 15% to Asia and 25% to South America during the first quarter. Even though container exports performance was poor in the first quarter of 2016, it is worth noting that the 1% decrease this quarter was lower than the drop in total non-oil exports to principal container market destinations. A major contributing factor was the slowdown in manufacturing production in the US, according to the Mexican Secretariat of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP). We reduced our growth expectations of Mexican exports from 1% to -1% or 0% taking into account the latest figures, explains Pablo Flores, Trade and Marketing Manager of Maersk Line in Mexico and Central America. Source: Maersk Line PAGE 2

3 Imports From January to March 2016, the accumulated total imports were 3.8% lower compared to the same period of This result stemmed from declines of 1.6% in non-oil imports and 26% in oil imports. Notwithstanding, container imports grew in volume. Container traffic maintained a positive trend, with 8% growth, albeit below estimates and less than in the same period After a thorough analysis of the numbers and the behavior of the markets in the first quarter of 2016, growth expectations for the Mexican container market are now estimated to be around 4.5%. Source: Maersk Line PAGE 3

4 Market Position in Reefers Certainly, one area that is set for stable growth is the Reefer market. Chile, one of the leading fruit exporters in the world, requires 100,000 Reefer containers every year alone to meet the needs of its exporters. If you include Colombia, Ecuador and Peru in the picture, demand increases to 300,000 refrigerated containers, according to Seabury, a company specialized in transportation and international shipment analysis. In this regard, with the avocado and melon production seasons coming up, the Mexican market could take advantage of new routes out of the ports of Lazaro Cardenas and Manzanillo bound for Yokohama, Japan, offering opportunities to nearby avocado production areas. According to industry data up till February, Reefers exports to Europe saw the highest growth with 44%, while those to Asia only grew 5%. In total, Reefer exports grew on average 24%. Mexico s exports of agricultural products which primarily depend on Reefer technology for shipping increased by 6.04% so far this year, while agricultural imports into the country fell by 2.88% in the same period, both comparatively with the same period of 2015, according to the Economic Information Statistics of the Bank of Mexico. Access to Reefer technology facilitates wider coverage of exports of fresh vegetables and fruits for Latin American markets. The Star Cool technology in these Reefer devices not only helps maintain refrigerated temperatures with lower power consumption, its controlled atmosphere system allows fruit and vegetables, such as bananas, avocados, mangoes and asparagus, to be transported over longer distances. Maersk Line has recently invested in more than new refrigerated (Reefer) containers to strengthen its market position. Its current market share of the worldwide reefer trade is 20%, explains Mario Veraldo. Reefers Perspective The global Reefer market is estimated to be around 9 million TEUs. In 2015, market growth reached a record low of 2% and is only expected to improve modestly in Despite diverse challenges in the market, Maersk Line continues to see opportunities thanks to new technologies and close collaboration with customers. This opens new possibilities to convert volumes from airfreight or ground transportation to shipping. Currently the Latin America region accounts for between 35 and 40% of Maersk Line s global Reefer business, and thanks to the strong dollar, we have opportunity to grow exports, says Veraldo. Remote Container Management (RCM), which is now a significant project in the Internet of Things (IoT) field, is being implemented in each of the 262,000 Maersk Line s refrigerated containers to keep them connected. The system radically changes the concept of visibility of the supply chain in Reefer transport and the costs and opportunities associated to them - once it increases the attention to the high value of perishable products cargo. While refrigerated cargo is perishable by nature, carriers of Reefers have increased their focus on ensuring that cargo not only arrives safely at its final destination, but also arrives in perfect condition. Having automation and real-time data in refrigerated containers allows us to take better care of our customer s cargo, reducing risk in supply chains while lowering operating costs, says Flores. PAGE 4

5 About Maersk Line Maersk Line is the world s largest container shipping company. Maersk Line employs 7,600 seafarers and 22,400 land based employees and operates 608 container vessels. Maersk Line serves customers through 324 offices in 115 countries. Latin America represents around 12% of Maersk Line s global volumes. About Maersk Group With offices in more than 130 countries, Maersk Group is an international business conglomerate that operates in transports, ports and energy sectors. It has as a core value to promote wellness among its collaborators and keep business and environmental sustainability in the long run. Maersk Group has about 6,800 employees in Latin America and more than 89,000 around the world. For more information or media enquire please contact: Rafael Luna Grajeda PR Consulting México 52 (155) rafael@prconsultingmexico.com André Mascarenhas PR Consulting Brasil andre@proconsultingbrasil.com PAGE 5