Latin American Ports: Logistical Challenges for a Post Panama Canal Expansion Era

Transcription

1 Foro Iberoamericano de Logística y Puertos, Panama, September Los Puertos Iberoamericanos en las Nuevas Rutas de Transporte Marítimo Latin American Ports: Logistical Challenges for a Post Panama Canal Expansion Era Jean-Paul Rodrigue Professor, Dept. of Global Studies & Geography, Hofstra University, New York, USA

2 Potential Impacts of Transoceanic Passages and Canals Operational Impacts Improved capacity, reliability and transit time. Lower unit costs. Substitution Impacts Cargo diversion. Changes in routing and transshipment. Induced Impacts New and expanded trade relations. Development of transshipment hubs and logistics zones.

3 Problem: Trying to Estimate Induced Impacts from a Derived Demand Issue Induced impacts questions What merchandise trade will be the most impacted? Container, dry bulk or liquid bulk? Which opportunities for which countries and ports? Who benefits and who loses? What impacts on transshipment? Derived demand impacts questions Is the expansion a marginal or significant change? On the short and long term, how the expansion of the Panama Canal will impact the strategies of its existing and potential users?

4 The Panama Canal Expansion: Myths MYTHS More traffic. Creates trade. Economic development. Magical effects.

5 The Panama Canal Expansion: Realities REALITIES Potential for economies of scale. Potential for new shipping routes. Potential for new trade relations. Potential for more transshipment.

6 Evolution of Containerships: The New Panamax A Early Containerships (1956-) TEU Fully Cellular (1970-) 1,000 2,500 TEU 137x17x9 meters (LOA Beam Draft) 200x20x9 215x20x10 6 containers across 4 containers high on deck 4 containers high below deck B Panamax (1980-) 3,000 3,400 TEU Panamax Max (1985-) 3,400 4,500 TEU 290x32x x32x C Post Panamax (1988-) 4,000 5,000 TEU Post Panamax Plus (2000-) 6,000 8,000 TEU 285x40x13 300x43x D New Panamax (2014-) 12,500 TEU 366x49x E Post New Panamax (2006-) 15,000 TEU Triple E (2013-) 18,000 TEU 397x56x15.5 ; (not shown) 400x59x

7 Container Throughput (in millions of TEU) Global Exports and Container Throughput, R² = Billones Exports in Current $US

8 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Global Trade Stalling and Diverging CPB World Trade Index by Volume, (2005=100) World Trade Imports (Advanced Economies) Exports (Emerging Economies) Latin America (Exports)

9 The North American East and West Coasts Dominate

10 but Growth has Shifted to South America / The Caribbean

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13 Emerging Global Maritime Freight Transport System

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16 Main Routing Alternatives between the Pacific and Atlantic

17 Main Routing Alternatives between East Asia and Northern Europe

18 Panama s Changing Role in the Global Transport System Transit (Pre 1914) Tollbooth and Connectivity ( s) Transshipment Hub (1990s- 2000s) Value-added Logistics Hub (2010s-?)

19 Proposed Routes for the Nicaragua Canal Constructions costs? Political risks? Market potential? Competition?

20 Challenges to the Expansion of the Panama Canal Issue Aggregate demand Maritime shipping Economies of scale Transshipment hubs West Coast Ports Railways Gateways Suez Canal Sourcing Challenge Potential shift in demand growth patterns (less growth in North America and more growth in Latin America) Higher shipping costs and slow steaming; Tolls taking a large share of the benefits of economies of scale Less ship calls and traffic concentration Changes in the transshipment dynamics (hub concentration); "Funnel effect" towards Panama Improved competitiveness of West Coast ports through better hinterland access Improved competitiveness of North American rail corridors; Emerging dichotomy between East Coast and West Coast railways New points of entry to service markets (e.g. Lazaro Cardenas, Prince Rupert) Increasing competitiveness of the Suez Route; Potential of the Cape Route Changes in sourcing strategies (e.g. near sourcing)