Ocean Market Update. February 9, 2012

Transcription

1 Ocean Market Update February 9, 2012

2 Agenda 2012/2012 Market Trends Status of EB TP Capacity Changes In Alliances Conclusions Photo placeholder 2

3 Global box container trade growth 2011 (Oct YTD): 7.1% Containerized ocean trade growth 2011 YTD October (Year over Year) % Increase (%) compared to Q Total international containerized ocean trade growth in October YTD 2011: 7.1% No major shifts in growth rates when comparing Q3 (YTD) with Q2 (YTD) 2011 Source: Seabury Global Ocean Trade Database.

4 Forecast: similar growth expected in 2012 as we saw in 2011 Containerized ocean trade growth in 2012 (Year over Year percentages) Regions surrounding Indian Ocean see strong growth as well as the Asia Latin America trade Source: Seabury Global Ocean Forecast

5 North East Asia exports remain close to 2010 levels in Q3 North East Asia exports North East Asia imports TEU (x million) TEU (x million) % % F M A M A S O N D 0 F M A M A S O N D Imports on the other hand show increase again after a weaker second quarter Source: Seabury China Ocean database

6 China exports: 10.7% YTD November China export growth YTD November 30% Growth YoY 25% 23 20% % % 7 5% 2 0% -5% -10% -15% West Africa Russia South Northern America Europe South East Asia Levant & Caucasus Gulf East Africa South Asia North East Asia Western Europe USA -11 North Africa USA bucks the trend in a negative way Source: Seabury China Ocean database

7 US monthly performance for the last 4 years US monthly exports US monthly imports TEU (x million) 1, TEU (x million) 1, ,8 0,6 1,0 0,4 0,5 0,2 0,0 F M A M A S O N D 0,0 F M A M A S O N D Total trade for US in 2011 will show growth figure of ~4% due to strong exports Source: Seabury China Ocean database

8 US Import From Asia by TEU Volume ,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000, Other Macao Sri Lanka Cambodia Singapore Bangladesh Philippines Malaysia Thailand Indonesia India Vietnam Taiwan Hong Kong apan Korea, South China

9 US exports per destination region TEU (x million) 5 8.3% 8.1% Growth (CAGR) 10% 4 4.4% 5.6% 5.2% 5.5% % 0% 1 0 Africa Europe Latin America M. East & South Asia Australasia NEA SEA -10% CAGR Note: *YTD September Source: Seabury US Ocean Database

10 US export share will increase in upcoming years US trade imbalance over the last years Import/ Export share 100% 80% 30% 29% 33% 36% 39% 38% 39% 43% exports 60% 40% 20% 70% 71% 67% 64% 61% 62% 61% 57% imports 0% (YTD Sep) During the last 7 years the export share has increased by 10% 2015 forecast

11 Transpacific Eastbound Capacity Capacity rose in Q1 2011, but then dropped significantly Q2-Q % reduction in allocated capacity in last 12 months. 19.2%reduction in nominal/deployed vessel capacity in same period. Average vessel size has increased 10.6 percent, from 5,146 TEUs to 5,694 TEUs. Carriers deploying larger vessels, but fewer of them vessels dropped to 430 in 12 months. The net fewer, larger assets are being used providing less available capacity. 11

12 Transpacific Eastbound Capacity Capacity in the EB TP decreases steadily throughout

13 Transpacific Pulse Survey 60% of shippers had some cargo rolled over December/anuary timeframe, up from 30% in November. Shippers using spot rates 5X more likely to have cargo rolled than those with locked-in annual rates. 70% of those large shippers see current capacity as moderately to very tight. 80% of shippers saw rates increase in the last month... But carriers don t expect rate momentum to sustain less than one-quarter expect rates to rise in weeks ahead. 13

14 Transpacific Pulse Survey Two-thirds of shippers expect carriers to withdraw capacity in spring... But 60% of carriers said they won t decrease capacity further. 60% of shippers expect rates to fall post-chinese New Year; 15% expect the fall to be significant. Large shippers have highest expectations of rate reductions. Shippers could be in for a surprise in 2012 if capacity levels continue to decline and demand spikes unexpectedly. 14

15 Changes In Carrier Alliances Daily Maersk drives sweeping changes in Asia/Europe market: CMA-CGM and MSC partner. New World and Grand Alliances team up. Green Alliance and Evergreen. China Shipping stays on the sidelines. Impact on the Asia/Europe market Less choices for shippers. What impact will this have on the Transpacific? 15

16 Conclusions Good news volumes are increasing globally led by certain emerging markets. Bad news key US trades remain flat while carriers remove capacity from the market. Traditional trade flows are changing/will change as US exports gain momentum. Short period of improvement in supply/demand levels in EB TP in run up to Chinese New Year. Will it last? Overcapacity on a global basis will remain a headline story however US import trade may balance supply/demand in US exporters are set up for a difficult market if supply and demand trends continue. The clearest impact of changes in alliances is confusion something the market was not lacking. 16

17 Thank you! Please feel free to contact me at any time: im Blaeser Publisher American Shipper (212)