Fleetscheduling, tonnage planning and risk management

Transcription

1 A Decision support tool to assist Chartering teams in Fleetscheduling, tonnage planning and risk management Norwegian Maritime Solutions Oslo, Norway. Tel: + 47 / Fax: + 47 / erikst@online.no Exec. Version 03/05/13 1

2 DryBulk4004has a high impact on business decisions because it analyses the opportunities in the often uncertain future markets High Impact on business decisions Low Voyage Reporting Systems Accounting Systems Voyage Estimating Systems Tactical Scheduling Strategic and Budget Scheduling Risk analysis Systems include: Shipnet, Danaos, IMOS, Dataloy, Softmar, Veson etc Last year Now Year ahead Years ahead Drybulk4004 is a special module in Route99 tailormade for dry bulk operations 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 2

3 But what if we already have one of the voyage estimating and accounting systems such as Veson Softmar Shipnet Amazon, Dataloy or Danaos??? Drybulk4004 does a whole lot more than any of these voyage accounting systems available today Do we need Drybulk4004 then?? All the mentioned software packages are good systems but they are primarily voyage accounting systems recording and analysing historical data such as Time of arrival, bunkers taken, fuel price etc They also have powerful voyage estimating tools enabling the user to calculate tc result for e.g. one ship on one or two voayges into the future. But the user has to select what combinations of ships and cargoes that they want to calculate 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 3

4 Drybulk4004 typical application areas Short term horizon 0 3 months Medium term horizon 3 12 months Long term horizon 1 year + Find a feasible schedule that 1) meets all our contractual obligations and take advantage of spot opportunities And 2) Gives the best fleet tc profit (or other criteria) Typically an optimized schedule can increase fleet tc profit by 5 10 % Use the scheduling tool in order communicate within management team Shall we go long or short on cargo for this period? Generate strategies for alternative market developments Low/Base case/high What cargoes to relet Ships to be fixed in/out on tc basis Strategic budgets Cashflow projections for the CFO Analyse contract opportunities. What terms shall we fix at? Provide documentaion material for top management and board 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 4

5 The scheduling task is time consuming and intricate Fleet and Tc ships Contract and spot cargoes Task: Find a schedule for the fleet that maximizes the total TC result (*) (*) In manyoperationstheaimis to maximizea mixture of three numbers: TC result for own(pool) vessels + TC profitfrom vesselsontc + Relet profit =TOTAL BEST RESULT 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 5

6 Drybulk4004 in practise Illustrative case (*) Optimal schedule gives: 13 % improvement Manual Schedule Optimal schedule Ship days 1,132 1,080 Pro-rated TC result 24.2 mill USD 26.2 mill USD TC Pr day 21,400 24,300 (*) A fleet of 6 vessels scheduled for a 6 months period against a mix of contract cargoes/spot jobs and TC contracts. 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 6

7 Drybulk4004 uses Jobs as reference to employment Cement Aalborg to New York Laydays Jan 1-10 Feb Apr May 1-20 Quantity 25,000 / 30,000 35,000 / 40,000 20,000 / 27,000 35,000 / 40,000 Job ID CAN100 CAN101 CAN102 CAN , Stavseth Shipping Slide 7

8 Various types of employment (Jobs) TC Jobs Contract Jobs Spot cargoes Quantity Jobs TC Job Id Job ID Min Quantity Quantity Job Required Ship Type Port of Delivery Port Zone of Redelivery Expected date of delivery TC rate Duration Contract ID Nr Of Liftings Opening Layday Closing Layday Layday refers to Load or Disch port Sublet Freight Rate Max Quantity Freight Rate Supply coa for industrial firms Evenly spread Specific laydays Min max cargo for shipments Min/Max size requirement Main parameters for scheduling 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 8

9 Contract and Trade Data related to the Job data General Ports Cargo, Freight and commissions Contract Name Contract ID Commodity Type Cargo Space requirement Stowage Factor Max Loa Max Beam Freight Rate Specification Port Cost Method Port Port Max Draft Port costs Port Positioning Hours Handling Time and terms Bunkering procedure Take Fuel In port Min Quantity Max Quantity Freight Rate Lumpsum Freight Broker Commission Address commission Pool Operator Commission Typical parameters for scheduling. Drybulk4004 has a great variety of additional parameters to describe specific cargoes, constraints and requirements 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 9

10 The ship data with parameters that are relevant to voyage estimating 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 10

11 The ships to be scheduled with open port and date Drybulk4004 SCREEN SAMPLE 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 11

12 The cargoes to be scheduled with laydays etc Drybulk4004 in practise 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 12

13 The cargo details with ports, type of cargo, laydays etc Drybulk4004 in practise 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 13

14 Visual Scheduling: Cargoes scheduled on the different ships Drybulk4004 in practise This schedule is generated by Drybulk4004 and gives a maximized fleet tc profit 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 14

15 The core Voyage Estimator Drybulk4004 SCREEN SAMPLE Two button clicks: Ship and cargoand then you get the Voyage estimate 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 15

16 Voyage estimate details for printing etc 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 16

17 Drybulk4004 in practise Route99 generates a voyage summary for each vessel Voyage summary from a schedule generated by Drybulk , Stavseth Shipping Slide 17

18 Drybulk4004 in practise The fleet summary gives key figures from the optimization 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 18

19 Drybulk4004 easily compares the manual scehdule with an optimized Manual schedule Optimized schedule 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 19

20 GreenerScheduling99 (Modulein Drybulk4004)canbe used to find schedules that minimizes GHG emissions and energy consumption Energy consumption: Kwh/tonkilometer SO2/NOX emission: g/tonkilometer CO2 emission: g/tonkilometer? GS99 mayhelpin achieving this? NOX SO ? XYZ strategy: XYZ s own fleet of ships is modern with a low average age profile and we will continue to launch and drive initiatives to enhance energy efficiency and reduce emissions. 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 20

21 Risk management: Shipping is mainly at level four with regard uncertainty Level 4 True uncertainty Level 3 Not even a range of possible future outcomes Level 2 A B Range of futures Range of possible future outcomes Level 1 C Alternative futures Lmited set of possible future outcomes, one of which will occur Clear enough future Single view of the future Source: McKinsey & Co, Hugh Courtney 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 21

22 Next question: If we start using Drybulk4004, can we then integrate with a voyage accounting system that we already have? The answer is: YES Drybulk4004 has an open database structure enabling both importing and exporting of data to/from any voyage accounting systems or inhouse systems based in Excel or any similar software. The database used for Drybulk4004 is MSAccess but data can also be converted into any Oracle after version , Stavseth Shipping Slide 22

23 CVA - chartering value analysis What can we offer? In order to identify what your company can achieve in savings by using Route99, NMS offers a fixed fee analysis where we take parts or whole of the fleet and run the data through Route99 on our computer. Package System Route99 can be delivered as a self-sustaining package with complete input interface and reporting. The modules offered include voyage estimating, voyage accounting, portfolio analysis and pool management Tailor-made system Route99 is modular in design and can be adapted to special requirements. The Engine The engine can be delivered as a DLL or EXE in order to integrate with existing software or IT systems that the company might have. 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 23