360 Supply Chain Excellence Week

Transcription

1 360 Supply Chain Excellence Week 25-28,June, 2012 Shanghai Workshop A: Advanced Demand Planning and Forecasting Improve your forecasts with better models and diagnostics (25-26,June,2012) Workshop B: Best Practices in Inventory Management and Optimization Learn industry best practices in the area of Inventory managememt to Supply Chain professionals (27-28,June,2012) Overview This is a practical programs which has been developed to communicate industry best practices in the area of inventory management and demand planning to Supply Chain professionals. This workshop aims to provide the necessary technical background to enable attendees to develop & implement new practices & procedures in supply chain management into their own business units. The objective of this workshop is to empower Supply Chain Managers to leverage the power of demand planning and to incorporate the best practices in materials management. This workshop will holistically present the best practices in creating a demand plan and explain the concepts and calculations for optimizing your inventory parameters. We preach true inventory optimization - help you to establish the right parameters your process and systems may need to run a lean machine with just optimal inventories to deliver the service and fill rates. This is a hands-on, practical workshop with many exercises and case studies and excel based work out problems. Every planner and material manager will leave the training hall with a diverse skill set to do their day to day jobs. We look forward to your joining! Mark Chockalingam Ph. D. Founder & President President, APICS BOSTON CHAPTER Organised by Endorsed

2 Workshop A: Advanced Demand Planning and Forecasting --Improve your forecasts with better models and diagnostics COURSE OVERVIEW Demand Planning is the science of accurately forecasting the demand for your supply chain. An accurate demand plan helps you reduce inventory costs and increase customer service levels. When properly implemented and used in the Value Chain Process, the demand plan helps create a lean and customer centric supply chain. In this workshop, you will learn how to develop a baseline statistical forecast and leverage a collaborative process to add customer intelligence.the result is a more accurate plan that includes promotional activity, customer intelligence, and display activity. This two day intensive workshop will take you through an overview of demand planning process, organization and structure within the supply chain and comprehensively cover statistical modeling to create accurate forecasts. We will also talk about model diagnostics to improve the puality of the forecast models with specific references to popular applications such as SAP APO, Forecastpro etc. Mark Chockalingam Ph. D. Founder & President President, APICS BOSTON CHAPTER Dr. Mark Chockalingam is the President and Founder of Demand Planning LLC, a Business Process and Strategy Consultancy helping clients across industries: Pharmaceuticals, Consumer Products, Chemicals and Fashion Apparel. His specialty consulting areas include Sales forecasting, Supply Chain Analytics, and Sales and Operations Planning. Who Should Attend? 1.Demand Planners 2.Forecast Analysts 3.Fo reca sti n g Managers 4.Director of Forecasting and Demand Planning 5.Director of Value Chain 6.Analysts in the Supply Chain 7.Inventory Planners 8.Operations Planners 9.Financial Analysts 10.Director of Logistics 11.Director of Customer Service Insightful information on... Insightful information on Demand Planning Overview Mechanics of Forecast Modeling Forecast Performance Metrics Model Diagnostics Measure and use forecast accuracy Promotional Planning Consensus Demand Planning Sales and Operations Planning Process He has conducted numerous training and strategy facilitation workshops for a variety of clients in the US and abroad. Mark has worked with a number of companies from the Fortune 500 such as Wyeth, Miller SAB, FMC, Colgate-Palmolive, Teva, Eastman Kodak to the small and medium size companies such as Au Bon pain, Multy Industries, Ticona, a divison of Celanese AG, North American Breweries etc. With significant expertise in business forecasting and modeling, he is a frequent speaker at major supply chain events on topics ranging from demand management to sales and operations planning. Prior to establishing his consulting practice, Mark has worked with manufacturing companies in important supply chain positions. Mark was Director of Market Analysis and Demand Planning for the Gillette Company, now part of Proctor and Gamble. Before Gillette, Mark led the Suncare, Footcare and OTC forecasting processes for Schering-Plough Consumer HealthCare in Memphis. Mark has a Ph. D. in Finance from Arizona State University, an MBA from the University of Toledo and is a member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of India. Mark currently serves as the President of the Boston Chapter of APICS.

3 Workshop A: Advanced Demand Planning and Forecasting --Improve your forecasts with better models and diagnostics DAY 2 -WorkShop A DAY 1 -WorkShop A 8:30am - 9:00am Registration Demand Planning Overview 9:00am - 10:30am Demand Planning Overview Planning Data Analysis for Demand Forecasting 10:45am - 12:30pm Data Analysis for Demand Forecasting 12:30pm - 1:30pm Lunch Break 2:30pm - 3:00pm Coffee Break&Networing Exercise Modeling & Graphical Decomposition 3:00pm - 4:30pm Modeling & Graphical Decomposition Assignment of Forecasting exercises to participants 4:30pm Assignment of Forecasting exercises to participants 8:30am - 9:00am Registration 8:30am- 10:30am Modeling Modeling Introduction to Forecast Modeling Qualities of a good Statistical Forecast Balancing between Model Fit vs. Model Robustness Time Series versus Multi-Variate Methods First Order Exponential Smoothing or Constant Models Holt Models to accommodate Trend Holt Winters Models How to set up a simple forecast model in Excel Exponential Trend and Dampening Additive vs. Multiplicative Seasonality in Models 10:45am- 11:30am Modeling (cont d) Baseline vs. event forecasting Introduction to Box-Jenkins Models Multiple Linear Regression Models Time and Seasonal Index in an Excel based model 11:30am - 12:30pm Forecast Errors & Model Diagnostics Definiton of Demand Forecast Errors Errors over time vs. Errors Across Products Calculation Methodology for Model Diagnostics Mechanics behind MAD, MPE, MAPE and RMSE How to identify a biased Forecast? 12:30pm - 1:30pm 2:30pm - 3:00pm Modeling Forecast Errors & Model Diagnostics Lunch Break Coffee Break Measuring Forecast Performance 3pm - 4:15pm Measuring Forecast Performance Importance of measuring forecast performance Management Reporting and Continuous Improvement Measurement Methodology Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) Mean Percentage Error (MPE) Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE or PMAD) Weighted Mean Percentage Error (WMAPE) Forecast Bias and Sku Mix Error (SME) Relationship between Bias and Error Discussion and answers to assigned exercises 4:15pm Discussion and answers to assigned exercises

4 Workshop B: Best Practices in Inventory Management and Optimization --Improve your forecasts with better models and diagnostics COURSE OVERVIEW This program has been developed to communicate industry best practices in the area of inventory management and demand planning to Supply Chain professionals. This workshop aims to provide the necessary technical background to enable attendees to develop & implement new practices & procedures in supply chain management into their own business units. The objective of this workshop is to empower Supply Chain Managers to leverage the power of demand planning and to incorporate the best practices in materials management. This workshop will holistically present the best practices in creating a demand plan and explain the concepts and calculations for optimizing your inventory parameters. We preach true inventory optimization - help you to establish the right parameters your process and systems may need to run a lean machine with just optimal inventories to deliver the service and fill rates. Who Should Attend? 1.Demand Planners 2.Forecast Analysts 3.Fo reca sti n g Managers 4.Director of Forecasting and Demand Planning 5.Director of Value Chain 6.Analysts in the Supply Chain 7.Inventory Planners 8.Operations Planners 9.Financial Analysts 10.Director of Logistics 11.Director of Customer Service This is a hands-on, practical workshop with many exercises and case studies and excel based work out problems. Every planner and material manager will leave the training hall with a diverse skill set to do their day to day jobs. Insightful information on... Mark Chockalingam Ph. D. Founder & President President, APICS BOSTON CHAPTER Dr. Mark Chockalingam is the President and Founder of Demand Planning LLC, a Business Process and Strategy Consultancy helping clients across industries: Pharmaceuticals, Consumer Products, Chemicals and Fashion Apparel. His specialty consulting areas include Sales forecasting, Supply Chain Analytics, and Sales and Operations Planning. Inventory Introduction to Inventory Management Principles Including Kanban He has conducted numerous training and strategy facilitation workshops for a variety of clients in the US and abroad. Mark has worked with a number of companies from the Fortune 500 such as Wyeth, Miller SAB, FMC, Colgate-Palmolive, Teva, Eastman Kodak to the small and medium size companies such as Au Bon pain, Multy Industries, Ticona, a divison of Celanese AG, North American Breweries etc. With significant expertise in business forecasting and modeling, he is a frequent speaker at major supply chain events on topics ranging from demand management to sales and operations planning. Prior to establishing his consulting practice, Mark has worked with manufacturing companies in important supply chain positions. Mark was Director of Market Analysis and Demand Planning for the Gillette Company, now part of Proctor and Gamble. Before Gillette, Mark led the Suncare, Footcare and OTC forecasting processes for Schering-Plough Consumer HealthCare in Memphis. Mark has a Ph. D. in Finance from Arizona State University, an MBA from the University of Toledo and is a member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of India. Mark currently serves as the President of the Boston Chapter of APICS. Tel:+86 (21) Fax back to +86 (21) Marketing@toplink-asia.com.cn

5 DAY 1 -WorkShop B 8:00am - 8:15am Registration 8:15am - 9:30am Group Introduction - Survey of the participants and their pain points and open discussion on key takeaways. carry inventory? nvent Make to Order Make to Stock Engineer to Order Exercise on picking the appropriate inventory strategy MTO vs. MTS vs ETO. Boeing, Spirit Aero Systems, Proctor and Gamble. 11:15am -12:30pm Inventory Optimization and Management- Safety Stock Independent Demand Item Reordering Different Scenarios Exercise on Safety Stock Management with constant and stochastic lead times Halliburton, Honeywell. Workshop B: Best Practices in Inventory Management and Optimization --Learn industry best practices in the area of IM to Supply Chain professionals Exercises on EOQ on POQ Home work assignments on concepts. 3:45pm - 5:00pm 1:30pm - 3:30pm Economic Order Quantity and Purchase Quantity Discounts impact

6 DAY 2 -WorkShop B Inventory Optimization and Management - Min Max Models Case Exercise: on Safety Stock, Min-Max, and Re-order Point 3:00pm 4:30pm Work-site Inventory Management Techniques Coffee Break Work on the Case Exercise above Measurement and KPIs Forecast Error, Customer Service and Inventories. Workshop B: Best Practices in Inventory Management and Optimization --Learn industry best practices in the area of IM to Supply Chain professionals Tel:+86 (21) Fax back to +86 (21) Marketing@toplink-asia.com.cn