Nickel & Molybdenum Overview: More Likely to See Leafs Win the Stanley Cup? See a Market Turn?

Transcription

1 Nickel & Molybdenum Overview: More Likely to See Leafs Win the Stanley Cup? OR See a Market Turn? MRAG Annual Mining Analyst Forecast and Luncheon Mark Selby, CEO Royal Nickel Corporation December 4, 2015

2 Disclaimer Cautionary Statements Concerning Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains "forward-looking information" including without limitation statements relating to the future price and supply and demand and the positive implications the Indonesian ore export ban will have on the outlook for nickel; and statements relating to construction and production at the Dumont Nickel Project. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual outcome, events, results, performance or achievements of RNC to be materially different from any future outcome, events, results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. Factors that could affect the outcome include, among others: future actions taken by the Indonesian government as well as mining companies operating in Indonesia; general business, economic, political and social uncertainties; availability of alternative nickel sources or substitutes; and financing to complete construction and achieve production at Dumont. For a more detailed discussion of such risks and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements, refer to RNC's filings with Canadian securities regulators available on SEDAR at Although RNC has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual outcome, events or results to differ materially from those described in forward-looking statements, there may be other factors that cause outcome, events or results to differ from those anticipated, estimated or intended. Forward-looking statements contained herein are made as of the date of this presentation and RNC disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or results or otherwise, except as required by applicable securities laws. All currency references in U.S. dollars, unless otherwise stated. TSX: RNX 1

3 Review of last MRAG presentation (vs. MRAG 2014) NICKEL Nickel supply to decline led by significant decline in Chinese NPI production to under 300kt. Higher NPI output will require much higher nickel prices Nickel demand growth to continue to grow at recent 6%+ rates Nickel demand will grow in both China and ROW Significant deficit will emerge scale dependent on nickel prices MOLYBDENUM NICKEL NPI production has declined but yet to fall below 300kt ~ 1% demand growth this year (the key cause of nickel underperformance) Demand grew in both China & ROW, but only ~1% Deficit emerged by year-end zero demand growth kept deficit from emerging MOLYBDENUM In 2015 and for next several years, molybdenum prices will remain pinned into the cost curve below $10/lb to force Chinese supply and higher cost Western primary producers to contract sufficiently to balance the global market as large new supply comes to the market from projects such as Sierra Gorda and Climax Molybdenum prices driven into cost curve to force closure of both primary and by-product molybdenum production 2

4 Nickel Prices $2.50 or $50? Nickel prices have peaked above $25 per pound but also troughed at prices below $2.50 per pound where will we go over the next cycle? $25.00 LME Cash Nickel Price (US$/lb) $ $2.50 3

5 Summary Nickel market has disappointed many analysts this year (including us) Why? Stainless production and nickel demand weak for 5 quarters since peak in Q (when nickel prices prematurely spiked) What would market look like today if nickel demand +10% (+180kt higher!!) Philippine ore production was able to offset a portion of the loss of Indonesian exports A portion of production was shipment of previously stripped ore or previously mined stockpiles Chinese have massively destocked ore (and other nickel materials) inventories held by ports/traders/consumers in order to maintain current levels of NPI production Once a stockpile is used, it can t be used again Many physical signs that market improving NPI production once again declining Net ferronickel and nickel imports have skyrocketed (up 160% and 500 % respectively) European scrap discounts have improved dramatically back into historical ranges Exchange Inventories appear to have peaked Nickel prices over next cycle will be driven by 3 key factors will determine whether prices closer to $2.50 or $25.00 Strength of restocking rally and rebound in demand (remember that each new cycle typically starts with a strong restocking rally) Double-digit demand growth is the NORM at start of cycle, NOT the EXCEPTION Ability of Philippines to increase ore production in response to higher prices (relative to Indonesia) NGO/Church activity, poor iron ore markets, and scale/quality resources will reduce Philippines ability to respond Growth of NPI capacity in Indonesia We continue to believe that Indonesia will become the largest nickel producer and 2 nd largest stainless steel producer but will take until mid-2020s to reach these levels 4

6 Nickel Market What Happened? Weaker than Expected Demand Stainless production and nickel demand weaker for 5 quarters since peak in Q (when nickel prices prematurely spiked) 15% Year-over-year Nickel Consumption and Stainless Steel Production Growth Ni Consumption Stainless Steel Production 10% 5% 0% -5% Source: CRU, RNC analysis 5

7 Nickel Ore (Millions of tonnes) Nickel Market What Happened? Philippines Nickel Ore In 2014, Philippines provided additional ore to China partially offsetting loss of ore from Indonesia and delaying market response. YTD 2015 performance supports thesis that some of 2014 supply came from stockpiles & Philippines facing cost pressures Chinese Nickel Ore Imports from Philippines ( ) Philippines Nickel Ore Exports to China (Mt) Full Year YTD Oct Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: GTIS

8 Nickel Market What Happened? NPI Production Maintained by Massive Destocking NPI production levels only sustained through massive destocking of implied consumer ore stocks in China stockpiles can only be used once. Ore stockpiles continue to be drawn down in 2015 even during peak Philippine shipping season which has significant implications for subsequent NPI production levels. 20 Change in Chinese Nickel Ore Port Stocks and Implied Consumer Stock Change 1 (Mt) 10 Port Stocks Consumer Stocks YTD Oct 2015 Equal to Kt of contained nickel Source: Ferroalloynet, GTIS, Macquarie, RNC Analysis 1. Implied Consumer Stock Change is difference between ore consumption, net imports, and change in port stocks 7

9 Summary Nickel market has disappointed many analysts this year (including us) Why? Stainless production and nickel demand weak for 5 quarters since peak in Q (when nickel prices prematurely spiked) What would market look like today if nickel demand +10% (+180kt higher!!) Philippine ore production was able to offset a portion of the loss of Indonesian exports A portion of production was shipment of previously stripped ore or previously mined stockpiles Chinese have massively destocked ore (and other nickel materials) inventories held by ports/traders/consumers in order to maintain current levels of NPI production Once a stockpile is used, it can t be used again Many physical signs that market improving NPI production once again declining Net ferronickel and nickel imports have skyrocketed (up 160% and 500 % respectively) European scrap discounts have improved dramatically back into historical ranges Exchange Inventories appear to have peaked Nickel prices over next cycle will be driven by 3 key factors will determine whether prices closer to $2.50 or $25.00 Strength of restocking rally and rebound in demand (remember that each new cycle typically starts with a strong restocking rally) Double-digit demand growth is the NORM at start of cycle, NOT the EXCEPTION Ability of Philippines to increase ore production in response to higher prices (relative to Indonesia) NGO/Church activity, poor iron ore markets, and scale/quality resources will reduce Philippines ability to respond Growth of NPI capacity in Indonesia We continue to believe that Indonesia will become the largest nickel producer and 2 nd largest stainless steel producer but will take until mid-2020s to reach these levels 8

10 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov forecast Nickel Market Improving NPI Production Once Again Declining NPI production has declined from peak 2013/2014 levels and are now at multiyear lows. 600 Chinese Nickel Pig Iron Production (Annualized Monthly Production, Kt) kt decline; ~12% of global supply 63 kt decline; ~3% of global supply 297 kt decline; ~15% of global supply Source: Antaike, RNC analysis 9

11 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Nickel Market Improving Chinese Nickel (x-npi) Production Also Declining While NPI gets a lot of focus, Chinese (x-npi) nickel production (making it world s 3 rd largest producer) has declined by more than 20% from peak 2014 levels 300 Chinese Nickel Cathode & Utility Nickel Output (Annualized Monthly Production, Kt) kt decline; ~3% of global supply Source: Antaike, RNC analysis 10

12 000s of tonnes Nickel Market Improving Chinese Nickel and Ferronickel Imports Surging YTD October 2015, Chinese refined nickel net imports up 800% and ferronickel net imports up over 250% year-over-year as high grade Indonesian laterite nickel ore stockpiles are largely depleted Chinese Refined Nickel and Ferronickel Net Imports ( ) FeNi imports have surged as high grade portside ore stocks have reached critical lows Ferronickel Refined Nickel 0-10 Qingdao effect results in movement of nickel from China into LME warehousing system Source: GTIS 11

13 Nickel Market Improving Nickel Largely at a Premium in China Nickel prices have been largely trading at a premium in China since the beginning of 2015 for the first time in many years Source: Antaike 12

14 Nickel Market Improving European Scrap Discounts Have Surged in 2015 Stainless steel scrap discounts have sharply rebounded back into traditional ranges Europe Stainless Steel Scrap (as % LME Cash Price) Scrap discounts at highest levels in more than 2 years Source: CRU 13

15 Nickel (kt) Nickel Market Improving LME + SHFE Inventories Are Declining Headline Inventories appear to have peaked and open inventories have declined as cancelled warrants have increased to record levels LME + SHFE Nickel Inventories (Jan 1, 2015 Dec 2, 2015, Kt) kt Peak 481 kt 442 kt 86 kt 174 kt 329kt 39 kt SHFE Inventory LME Cancelled Inventory: more than doubled in kt LME Open Inventory Note: SHFE nickel inventory was 38,712 t, of which cancelled inventory was 8,697 t, as of November 27, Source: metalprices.com 14

16 Summary Nickel market has disappointed many analysts this year (including us) Why? Stainless production and nickel demand weak for 5 quarters since peak in Q (when nickel prices prematurely spiked) What would market look like today if nickel demand +10% (+180kt higher!!) Philippine ore production was able to offset a portion of the loss of Indonesian exports A portion of production was shipment of previously stripped ore or previously mined stockpiles Chinese have massively destocked ore (and other nickel materials) inventories held by ports/traders/consumers in order to maintain current levels of NPI production Once a stockpile is used, it can t be used again Many physical signs that market improving NPI production once again declining Net ferronickel and nickel imports have skyrocketed (up 160% and 500 % respectively) European scrap discounts have improved dramatically back into historical ranges Exchange Inventories appear to have peaked Nickel prices over next cycle will be driven by 3 key factors will determine whether prices closer to $2.50 or $25.00 per pound Strength of restocking rally and rebound in demand (remember that each new cycle typically starts with a strong restocking rally) Double-digit demand growth is the NORM at start of cycle, NOT the EXCEPTION Ability of Philippines to increase ore production in response to higher prices (relative to Indonesia) NGO/Church activity, poor iron ore markets, and scale/quality resources will reduce Philippines ability to respond Growth of NPI capacity in Indonesia We continue to believe that Indonesia will become the largest nickel producer and 2 nd largest stainless steel producer but will take until mid-2020s to reach these levels 15

17 Nickel Demand Evolution of Chinese Nickel Demand As an economy industrializes, demand moves from more basic materials like carbon steel into stainless steels and ultimately into specialty alloys that require a lot of nickel and will drive non-stainless nickel consumption in China Carbon Steel Stainless Steel Nickel 2010 Kg/capita consumption 2010 Kg/capita consumption 2010 Kg/capita consumption China 2013 China China 2013 China China 2013 China 2010 Source: World Steel Association, INSG, World Stainless Steel Statistics, Woodmac, Macquarie Research, RNC Analysis 16

18 Stainless Steel Production Despite steady long term growth, stainless steel production has historically always been highly volatile driven by strong restocking and destocking cycles World Stainless Steel Production ( f, Mt) 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% World Stainless Steel Production (Year-over-Year % Change, f) 30% Long term average CAGR 5.0% Source: Macquarie Research 17

19 Nickel Consumption leading in turn to significant volatility in nickel consumption World Nickel Consumption ( f, Mt) 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% World Nickel Consumption (Year-over-Year % Change, f) Long term average CAGR 3.4% Source: Macquarie Research 18

20 Nickel Prices - $2.50 or $50.00 As a result, stainless production and nickel demand growth are almost NEVER average more often negative or double-digit growth World Stainless Steel Production ( f, YoY % Growth Distribution) World Nickel Consumption ( f, YoY % Growth Distribution) > 10% 6-10% 4-6% 0-4% <0% Source: Macquarie Research, RNC analysis > 10% 5-10% 3-5% 0-3% <0% 19

21 Nickel Ore (Millions of tonnes) Nickel Prices $2.50 or $25.00 Philippines Providing Little Additional Ore to Market YTD October ore imports from Philippines are down from 2014 and have not been materially larger than in prior years although shift in mix to mid-grade saprolite from low grade limonite. Chinese Nickel Ore Imports from Philippines ( ) Philippines Nickel Ore Exports to China (Mt) Full Year YTD Oct Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: GTIS

22 Nickel Prices $2.50 or $25.00 Philippines A Critical Nickel Market Factor The Philippines ability and willingness to increase saprolite supply to China is another critical issue for nickel supply Will Philippines implement ore export restrictions as well? In absence of a ban, will Philippines attract additional investment? What level of mining activity will communities allow to occur? Will communities support significantly higher levels of mining activity? What level of saprolite exports can physically be supported? Stockpiles drawn down in 2014? Given low 1.5% saprolite prices of <$20 in 2013, a likely possibility Additional mining? Given resource base, many deposits can generate 2+ tonnes of limonite per tonne of saprolite. What price will be required to profitably mine saprolite if limonite markets remain weak due to iron ore weakness? 21

23 Nickel Prices $2.50 or $25.00 Indonesia A Critical Factor for the Nickel Market With the ore ban resolutely in place, Indonesia is positioned to become the world s largest nickel producer and one of the largest stainless producers but not until mid-2020s at earliest. How quickly can 350kt of projects be financed and built to replace NPI production from Indonesian ore in China? If China took 6 years to create 450ktpa of nickel production, how long would it take for that capacity to be replaced in Indonesia given the lack of infrastructure, skilled labour, and power? How quickly can new NPI projects be financed in the current price environment? Will they require projects to be successfully commissioned before financing the next ones? Will it happen by early 2020s? Mid 2020s? Late 2020s? 22

24 Nickel Prices - $2.50 or $25.00 Where do Prices Go From Here? 23

25 Nickel Price Cycle Analysis Have We Seen the Bottom? Over the last 30 years, 7 troughs have occurred either in or near Q4. RNC believes that Q will be the trough for this cycle Nickel Market Price Cycles Troughs Q Q (4 trading days after Q4) Q (1 trading day before Q4) Q Q Q Q Q4 2015? Source: MetalPrices.com, RNC analysis 24

26 Nickel Price Cycle Analysis This cycle has been one of the longer peak-to-trough price movements Nickel Market Price Cycle Peak to Trough (months) Mar 1980 to Nov 1982 Apr 1985 to Jan 1987 Mar 1988 to Sep 1993 Jan 1995 to Oct 1998 Mar 2000 to Oct 2001 Jan 2004 to Nov 2005 May 2007 to Dec 2008 Feb 2011 to Nov 2015? ? 66 Source: MetalPrices.com, RNC analysis

27 Nickel Price Cycle Analysis Consistent Rebounds A second half 2015 trough in nickel prices would imply a late 2016 or late 2017 nickel peak as time from trough to peak is relatively consistent; either months or months (with 1 exception) Nickel Market Price Cycle Trough-> Peak (months) Nov 1982 to April 1985 Jan 1987 to Mar 1988 Sep 1993 to Jan 1995 Oct 1998 to Mar 2000 Oct 2001 to Jan 2004 Nov 2005 to May 2007 Dec 2008 to Feb 2011 Aug 2015 to? ? Source: MetalPrices.com, RNC analysis

28 Nickel Price Cycle Analysis Consistent Rebounds Consumption growth in the 2 rebound years following a trough has always been robust in past cycles (almost always double digit) few analysts are forecasting this level of growth 30% 25% 27% Nickel Consumption Growth 2 Years Following a Price Trough Year 25% 20% 15% 10% 13% 13% 12% 9%* 16% 5% 0% Trough * Insufficient nickel supply constrained demand resulting in single-digit demand rebound Source: MetalPrices.com, Macquarie, RNC analysis 27

29 Nickel Price ($/lb) Nickel Prices Lessons from Last Inventory Peak At prior nickel inventory peak, it took only 3 months and a 6% decline in inventories before nickel prices hit their peak for that cycle (a 150% increase in prices in just 18 months from trough to peak LME Nickel Prices and Inventories Sep Jan (Prior Inventory Record Weeks of Consumption) 2 mths 160,000 (352,000) 150,000 (331,000) LME Inventory (tonnes) ,000 (309,000) 130,000 (287,000) 120,000 (265,000) 110,000 (243,000) 100,000 (222,000) 90,000 (200,000) 80,000 (178,000) Bracketed amount is 2014 equivalent of 1994 inventory levels adjusted for weeks of consumption Source: Metalprices.com, RNC Analysis 28

30 $/tonne Nickel Prices Cost Curve Support 90 th percentile of cost curve has been historically a strong support for nickel prices. The 90 th percentile would suggest a significant rebound in nickel prices Nickel Prices & 90 th Percentile of Cost Curve 1980 to Date LME price 90th percentile of cash costs Source: Macquarie, WoodMac, RNC analysis 29

31 Nickel Price Cycle Analysis Explosive Price Moves Nickel price moves have always been explosive even without China. Again, why would it be different this cycle? Remember that a % price increase from a $3.70 trough is $9-$15 per pound! 700% 600% 500% 400% 300% 200% 100% 84% 595% Nickel Price Increase (Trough to Peak) 157% 184% 301% 371% 221% 0% Trough Q4 1982Q1 1987Q3 1993Q4 1998Q4 2001Q4 2005Q4 2008Q Peak Q2 1985Q1 1988Q1 1995Q1 2000Q1 2004Q2 2007Q1 2011? 300%=$ %=$ %=$6.80 Source: MetalPrices.com, RNC analysis 30

32 Molybdenum - Groundhog Day for Several More Years In 2015 and for next several years, molybdenum prices will remain pinned into the cost curve below $10/lb. Market balances now require further cuts by byproduct and higher cost Chinese producers which will keep prices closer to $5/lb than $10/lb until market balance restored. Collapse in global oil & gas prices (~20% of moly demand) led to 5% decline in global demand (exacerbating surplus in an already oversupplied market) China should continue to dominate molybdenum demand growth (~100% of world growth) as China moves into higher value added products China continues to be largely self-sufficient in molybdenum as supply growth largely keeps pace with demand growth even at current price levels ROW supply still has million pounds of supply to come from Sierra Gorda. FCX net cut of 15 MM lbs only a partial offset, need further 5-8% byproduct production cut just to offset Sierra Gorda (never mind other projects like Las Bambas ramping up) 31

33 1978 Nov Sep Jul May Mar 1983 Nov Sep Jul May Mar 1988 Nov Sep Jul May Mar 1993 Nov Sep Jul May Mar 1998 Nov Sep Jul May Mar 2003 Nov Sep Jul May Mar 2008 Nov. Sep July May Mar 2013 Nov. Sep July Molybdenum - Prices Given past price levels, it is no surprise that molybdenum prices have headed toward $5/lb in order to force sufficient capacity to close Rising demand from new uses Restricted supply Molybdenum Prices ($/lb) 1978 to date (U.S. moly oxide) Cancellation of Chinese shipments Boom in iron and steel industries Strong global demand Chinese mine closures offset ROW increases Limited roasting capacity Source: metalprices.com 32

34 Molybdenum China Remains Largely Self-Sufficient Despite the collapse in molybdenum prices, China remains largely self-sufficient (as expected, Chinese mine production lower cost/ stickier than many expect) 8,000 6,000 China Net Moly Exports (kt) (adjusted for concentrate imports) 4,000 2, ,000-4,000-6,000-8,000 Source: GTIS, RNC Analysis

35 2016 Forecast Nickel Nickel prices troughed in Q now heading to 1 st half 2018 peak Nickel supply to decline led by further decline in Chinese NPI production to under 300kt. Higher NPI output will require much higher nickel prices Nickel demand to rebound, well in excess of global growth, driven by stainless steel restocking cycle Nickel demand will grow in both China and ROW Significant deficit will emerge scale dependent on strength of restocking cycle Molybdenum In 2015 and for next several years, molybdenum prices will remain pinned into the cost curve below $10/lb May see temporary rebound towards $10/lb from $5/lb driven by stainless steel restocking 34

36 Corporate Overview Share Structure: Basic Shares Outstanding 1 : million Options (average exercise price: C$0.63) 12.1 million Deferred/Restricted Share Units 2.6 million Warrants (exercise price: C$0.80) 4.8 million Warrants (exercise price: C$0.375) 1.2 million Compensation Warrants (ave. price C$0.60) 0.6 million Contingent Shares 7.0 million Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding: million Directors and Officers Share Ownership: ~7% Largest Shareholders: RAB Special Situations (Master) Fund Limited: ~15% Orion Mine Finance ~8% Balance Sheet Highlights 2 : Cash and Cash Equivalents: C$14.4million Working Capital: C$12.2 million Market Capitalization: C$27.5 million 1. Shares outstanding, fully diluted shares outstanding and shareholdings as at November 5, Balance sheet highlights as at September 30, 2015; market capitalization as at November 5,